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    Brief Look At Holliday Deal

    Thursday, November 13, 2008, 04:46 PM EST [Matt Holliday]

    Have been too busy to write lately, but there were several recent transactions that I wanted to comment on.

    I will begin with the Blockbuster deal of the week. I will touch on the Nick Swisher move and the Marlins' decision to seemingly trade away all of their arbitration-eligible young players to cut payroll in some future posts.

    It was surprising to learn that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, but I agree with his thought process.

    Holliday has definitely benefited from playing in the thin air in Colorado; he posted a .584 slugging percentage and .997 OPS at Coors Field, .486 and .891 on the road. He is more than a pure product of his home hitting environment, though, and will offer a major offensive upgrade in the Oakland outfield next year.

    The A's were one of the worst-hitting clubs in 2008, ranking near the bottom in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They lacked a difference-making hitter, and Holliday could fill that void. As a Scott Boras client due for a big payday in 2009, he is clearly a rental player for the cost-effective A's.  

    Colorado would not have been able to afford him, either, so credit the organization for reeling in a nice return-Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Huston Street-in exchange for a one-year player.

    But Beane made the right choice.

    Gonzalez may not have strong enough on-base skills to ever emerge into a star. He has some outstanding tools, but his pitch recognition is subpar (81 K's, 13 walks in 85 games, with a .273 OBP); he was generally not a good fit in Oakland, which places a major emphasis on patience and plate discipline.

    The long-term outcome of this trade is going to come down to Gonzalez, though. He has star potential--possibly a .300 hitter with 20-home run power if he develops, with above-average defense--but is one of those players who is going to have to hit around .300 every year to keep his OBP at an acceptable level. If he can improve his approach, which has left to a lot to be desired since his pro debut in 2003, he could develop into a solid major league outfielder. He has the inside track on the Rockies' starting center field job in sping training, but the organization may send him down to Triple-A for more seasoning. When he takes over that role for good, he will see his power numbers improve by playing in Coors Field.

    Smith projects as nothing more than a fifth starter in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty struggled with control problems at times in the minors, and then had command issues as a rookie in '08 (111-to-87 K/BB).  He can add some value, though, with the ability to keep hitters off balance and an excellent pickoff move. He had some rough patches in '08 but was much better than his 7-16 record indicates, having posted a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 innings pitched. Moving to Coors Field is going to be a difficult change, as he is predominantly a flyball pitcher. But, like any other pitcher, he will benefit from moving into the weaker league.

    Street, who has 94 saves and a 2.88 career ERA, is never going to be an impact closer again. He still has a chance to turn into an effective middle reliever in the right situation. Due to injuries, his stuff is not what it once was, causing him to lose his closer's role early last spring. But he actually had a better year than he was given credit for: 3.73 ERA, 69-to-18 K/W, .667 opponents' OPS. Beane feels that late-inning relievers are easy to replace ("closers are made, not born"), and therefore no longer had any use for Street's services.

    The A's still have the core of their excellent (and cheap) bullpen intact, as well a bunch of promising young pitching prospects who are close to making an impact. They are again expected to excel at run prevention in '09-with the chance to field an excellent young starting rotation, in addition to an efficient defense. Having added an impact hitter finally added to the middle of the lineup, they may now have just enough offense to realistically compete with the L.A. Angels in the division.

    If the A's ride Holliday and the young pitching to a potential postseason berth in the four-team A.L. West, Beane will be happy to accept a pair of compensation picks in the 2010 draft when the slugger bolts for free agency. If he does not see his team as a contender, though, he will have the opportunity to add a quality group of prospects-most likely a better package than what he gave up here-by dealing him at the trade deadline to a contender.

    Either way, Oakland sets itself up to compete immediately next year-though the Angels are still the clear-cut favorites, especially if they bring back Mark Teixeira or sign Manny Ramirez-without facing any serious long-term consequences. It was surprising, certainly, but was a great deal for the A's.

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