We live in a results-driven society, causing many of us to forget about the process that leads to those results.

This chart, courtesy of Paul DePodesta, exemplifies beautifully why focusing on process is so important:


Which brings me to yesterday. The Kansas City Royals lost a game to the Chicago White Sox that they probably should have won, wasting a tremendous effort from starter Gil Meche.

A large part of the blame for the loss goes to Royals manager Trey Hillman, the subject of this exercise today. Hillman, sitting on a one-run lead, let Kyle Farnsworth face Jim Thome with two men on base and two outs in the eighth inning.

Let us consider the factors at play here, which should have gone into the thought processes used by Hillman.

Farnsworth, as live as his arm is, was not the right pitcher for that situation. From 2006-2008, the hard-throwing right-hander has posted an opponents' line of .254/.337/.458 against left-handed hitters. His slugging percentage against is that high because of his home run tendencies, of course--against batters from both sides of the plate, really. Lefties have belted 17 homers off of him in 317 at-bats during that time period, though, which is obviously concerning.

Thome swings from the left side, of course, and generally fares better against his opposite kind. In fact, he has hit 89 of his 121 home runs from '06-'08 off of right-handers, whom he posted a 1.053 OPS against during the aforementioned time period. And 65 of those jacks have come in the friendly confines of US Cellular Field, a notorious home run park.

So, to recap.

Farnsworth is a homer-prone right-hander who throws mostly hard fastballs and struggles against hitters who swing from the left side.

Thome is a left-handed hitter who mashes righties and fastballs. With the wind blowing out, he was sitting dead red.

Hillman had Juan Cruz, who has been a flat-out more effective pitcher than Farnsworth in recent past, and potentially lights-out closer Joakim Soria available. Soria may not have been ready to be extended into another inning so early in the spring, but the the one guy who should not have been given the opportunity to pitch to Thome in that situation was in the game.

And what happened?

Thome belted a long three-run home run into the seats that proved to be the nail in coffin for the Royals.

Farnsworth, who was signed to a puzzling contract this winter given his recent struggles, is the eighth-inning guy for now, though. According to Hillman, that is, and this is why he was allowed to finish the frame. The sophomore skipper pretty much said so when he was asked about the puzzling decision following the loss.

Cruz, though not as highly-paid, is the more capable reliever for that role. It seems as if that money is dictating the job titles, but hopefully the front office will wise up soon enough.

For game one, though, this thought process backfired, leading to a bad outcome.

I received a comment over at Dugout Central from Thomas Wayne, whose opinion I respect. Wayne criticized me for Monday-morning Quarterbacking the decision in hindsight, writing:

Tyler,

Your a smart guy, please don't become one of those guys who second guesses managers based on one in game decision.

Had Farnsworth struck out Thome or got him to fly out...Hilman becomes a genius. Turns out Farnsworth wasn't up to the task.

Had they brought in Soria to face Thome and he gives up the long ball some second guessers would have said "should have left in Farnsworth."

Which leads me back to the chart.

I am not focusing on the result. Obviously, more times than not, Thome would not have hit that shot to seal the game.

Still, we need to judge Hillman on the thought processes he used that drove the decision.

The processes uses in this instance were poor, as detailed above. Bad processes, barring dumb luck, lead to bad outcomes.

Thome hitting essentially a game-winning home run was poetic justice.

Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

Before he underwent knee surgery, Tiger Woods reached a level of brilliance with his play on the golf course that was practically unprecedented. Woods' dominant run and unmatched talent level even prompted many pundits to legitimately argue that he was the safer bet to win every major championship over the rest of the competing field.

As incredible as Pujols has been for the St. Louis Cardinals, the National League Most Valuable Player race is beginning to follow that pattern. What is the more likely bet, choosing Sir Albert or everyone else on the circuit? Obviously, the field would be the better play percentage wise (especially factoring in the thought processes and love of RBIs permeating through a large portion of the BBWAA), but, considering how valuable the star first baseman has been, the concept is really not all that far fetched.

Pujols is the best player in baseball. Period. The reigning league M.V.P. was again the most productive player in the sport during 2008, batting .357/.462/.653 with 37 home runs and the second-highest wOBA total (.458) of his illustrious career. He just did it all, hitting for average (add another batting crown to his resume) and power (.296 ISO) while maintaining stellar contact and walk rates; he walked in 16.6 of his plate appearances in '08, striking out only 54 times in 641 trips.

Nintendo-like slash stat lines are becoming the norm for Pujols, who is also an excellent defender at first base. In fact, he deserved to win the Gold Glove at his position as well; according to UZR, he saved 8.4 runs above an average first baseman.

When accounting for defensive, offensive and positional considerations, Pujols was worth 8.9 value wins, according to FanGraphs. Yeah, the voters got it right. Defining value as producing wins, the Ryan Howard argument was based on faulty-one could say even silly-logic. Incredibly, he was actually one of the biggest bargains in the game, providing the Cards with $40.0-M of on-field production at the tender cost of $13.9-M.

Imagine what the man would do with a healthy elbow.

Seriously, even if he does not perform at that high of a level again, Pujols is the clear-cut favorite for this award.

Honorable Mention: Chase Utley, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young Award: Johan Santana, New York Mets

Santana had an excellent debut in New York, posting the lowest ERA in the National League and a 166 ERA+ in 234.1 innings pitched. The star left-hander, who came over from the Minnesota Twins in a pre-season blockbuster trade, pitched beautifully down the stretch as well. In fact, he pretty much did everything that he could to keep his club afloat, tossing a gem in the Mets' huge win over the Florida Marlins on the final Saturday in September.

Santana only won 16 games, though, thanks to a horrible bullpen that was responsible for blowing games in which he left with a lead in hand on seven different occasions. New York lacked capable personnel in its depleted relief corps, which hurt his chances of winning the Cy Young award last November; Tim Lincecum was a fine selection, though, given his outstanding run with the San Francisco Giants, making him a front-runner as well. Unfortunately, voters are still holding players accountable for actions beyond their control and place win-loss record in the highest possible light.

Santana is unlikely to run into such bad luck again. Omar Minaya addressed the Mets' glaring need this offseason by adding J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez to the backend of his bullpen. Thus, if he comes anywhere close to matching his actual pitching performance from a year ago, the New York ace will likely end up doing what the voters look for: racking up wins.

There are some concerns with Santana, who has had elbow issues recently and saw several of his peripherals decline in '08; his K/9 fell from 9.66 to 7.91, while his BB/9 (2.14) rose in the wrong direction. He also registered an unusually high left-on-base percentage, stranding 82.6% of all base runners. While effective pitchers are generally better at preventing runners from scoring, that high of a clip does not seem sustainable. In addition, his average fastball velocity reached a career low at 91.2 MPH, nearly two ticks on the radar gun lower than he average in Minnesota back in 2006. His FIP, fielding independent pitching, mark actually ranked 17th as well, which was obviously out of line with his league-best ERA.

Santana is still an elite starting pitcher, however, and will have an excellent defense and offense supporting him. With the addition of Putz and Rodriguez, count on him to put up a nifty number in the common voter's favorite statistical category. He got off to a nice start on Monday afternoon, picking up the decision in the Mets' Opening Day victory over the Cincinnati Reds. With that relief help, expect more of the same from the pre-season Cy favorite.

Honorable Mention: Lincecum, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Chad Billingsley

Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals

Unlike the M.V.P. discussion, this is a near-impossible award to predict. Whether or not a player is given the opportunity to make an impact will play a major role on who ends up having the most productive rookie breakout. At this point, there is just no way of knowing whether or not a youngster such as, say, Tommy Hanson will make enough appearances to merit consideration.

With so many exciting rookie players-especially outfielders, with a class that includes favorites Dexter Fowler, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Colby Rasmus and Jordan Schafer-playing time will dictate this race. Maybin and Schafer, who hit a home run in his first major league at-bat on Sunday night, are already playing everyday, increasing their chances out of the gate. Fowler and Rasmus, on the other hand, are up with their parent clubs already but are blocked on the depth chart and limited to bench duties for the time being; McCutchen was optioned to Triple-A. Many, if not all, of the aforementioned rookie outfielders will earn full-time jobs by mid-summer, but there are so many unknown variables to consider.

More than likely an outfielder will be named R.O.Y on the Senior Circuit. A lot can happen, of course, but Rasmus gets the vote for now.

The Colorado Rockies added pitching depth over the weekend, acquiring right-hander Jason Hammel from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor league pitcher Aneury Rodriguez.

Hammel will serve as a long relief man for the Rockies, at least initially. Either way, he is a nice pick-up for Colorado, whose starting rotation took a major hit with the loss of southpaw Jeff Francis. The 26-year-old has posted impressive minor league numbers, but really struggled during his brief time in Tampa Bay after making his debut back in 2006. In 73 appearances with the Rays, he registered a 76 ERA+, 5.17 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and rates of 6.08 K/9, 4.17 BB/9 and 1.13 HR/9. Obviously, his performance to date has been nothing to write home about.

With that said, Hammel has looked great at times and was blessed with a live arm and some talent to work with. Plus, if given the opportunity, he could add some nice value as he enters his peak; he is still only 26. The 2002 10th-round pick has the stuff to be a quality back-of-the-rotation starter and has the versatility to pitch in a number of roles. His best pitch is clearly his fastball, which generally sits in the 92-93 MPH range; his average velocity during his time in the majors is 92.1. He generates nice movement and sink on the pitch, which can be tough to hit when he has command over it. His inability to effectively command his pitches, though, has been an issue, as well as his fairly average secondary offerings. He mixes in a mid-80s slider (84.6 average velocity for a pitch he has thrown 12.0 percent of the time), slow curve ball and so-so change-up. Whether or not he can improve in this area-he just needs to develop an out pitch, really-and on a command and control front will eventually dictate his future, enabling him to succeed in a starting role or limiting him to swing man duties for most of his career.

Hammel, despite his success at Triple-A Durham, obviously got lost in the shuffle with the Rays. The tremendous pitching depth in the Tampa Bay system-with more help coming up the pipeline in the form of Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and co.-prevented, and would have continued to, him from ever being more than a long reliever in the organization. Perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs.

One concern is that Hammel will now spend most of his nights battling in the thin air of Coors Field, where fly ball pitchers go to die. He can be homer-prone at times, having surrendered 30 home runs in 207.1 innings pitched. His ground ball rates are a bit troublesome for someone entering such an environment.

Regardless, Hammel is a nice insurance policy should Colorado face any more health issues in its pitching staff or if Franklin Morales really struggles. Moving out of the American League, especially the East, will help as well. The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder needs to capitalize on this situation, but the Rockies were right to target his services for the aforementioned reasons.

Hammel, who is out of options, was competing for the Rays' interim fifth starter job this spring. With the trade, the number five spot will now go to Jeff Niemann, a former first-rounder who was also out of options and likely would have been sent to the bullpen had he lost the battle in camp.

The Tampa Bay front office was, as expected, left with a difficult decision, but ended up keeping the pitcher with the higher upside. Niemann, one of the best collegiate pitchers of all time during his time at Rice University, has been bothered by injuries since being drafted back in 2004; seriously, it seems as if he has been a top prospect forever. Although he has yet to establish himself at the big league level, though, he has been productive at Triple-A Durham in the recent past, still has pretty good stuff and may just finally put it all together at the right time. His star has dimmed, certainly, but he is clearly the safest bet among the Rice Three to end up enjoying a productive career.

Niemann posted FIP totals of 3.87 and 3.98 at Durham in 2007 and 2008, respectively. During his time with the Bulls, he has also produced decent strike out rates (8.45 in '07, 8.66 in '08) while avoiding giving up home runs. He has had issues in the walks department, but it is hard not to like his propensity to miss bats. The 6-foot-9, 260-pounder struggled in his brief stint with the Rays last April while filling in for Scott Kazmir, who was on the disabled list because of an elbow injury.

Niemann has not been able to maintain his once-consistently mid-90s velocity, but his stuff can still be devastating when his command his on. He lives in the 91-93 range with his fastball now, averaging 92.3 MPH on the gun in his five appearances in Tampa Bay. The rest of his arsenal features a high-70s slider, mid-70s breaking ball and decent change-up. He also has above-average control for someone with such a large body type. Another victim of the Rays' tremendous depth, this could finally be his time to shine now that nothing is standing in his way for at least the first two months.

David Price is eventually going to get called at some point this spring, likely moving Niemann back to the bullpen. Many of the Rays' starters were extended into the postseason, however, and, Verducci effect aside, young pitchers generally break down and find themselves on the losing side in the war of attrition. If one of the current rotation fixtures indeed goes down with an injury, Niemann adds nice depth to the group when the arrival of Price forces him into a relief role.

With three pitchers (Lance Cormier/Hammel/Niemann trio) fighting for three spots, it was clear that one of the pitchers would be dealt. While Niemann likely would have commanded more value in return (there are several teams that would love to add him to the back-end of their starting rotation; apparently not the Rockies, though), the Rays appear to have made the right choice here. Niemann is a good pitcher who should provide a capable interim stop gap while Price continues to develop his change-up down on the farm.

Rodriguez, ranked by Baseball America as the Rockies' 16th-best prospect earlier this winter, has excellent control over a low-90s fastball and breaking ball that could end up being a plus offering for him. The young right-hander, who signed a professional contract out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, is efficient on the mound and, considering his youth, has a real good feel for pitching. He has also showcased impressive bat-missing ability during his professional career to date, having struck out nearly a batter per inning since he made his debut back in '05; he put up an 8.4 K/9 rate, with 415 Ks in 446.1 innings pitched. The 21-year-old prospect has been a control artist as well, producing a 2.3 BB/9 rate. One could argue that Hammel has already reached what could end up as his ceiling (with a higher floor). Rodriguez has a lot of traits that Tampa Bay looks for in young pitchers, though, and adds just another promising prospect to an already deep system. Quite frankly, as rich as the organization is when it comes to pitching prospects, the return for the Rays was certainly better than getting nothing back at all had Hammel or Niemann simply been placed on waivers. Accounting for the factors at play-the Rockies had leverage, given that either pitcher was out of options-it was a nice haul for Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman.

The thought processes used in this player swap really were sound on both sides, considering the circumstances. Hammel gives the Rockies depth and a nice swing man, while the Rays receive an above-average pitching prospect in return instead of parting ways with a valuable asset for free.

Benjamin Kabak of River Avenue Blues was our guest on Around the Majors Weekly last night. Benjamin and I previewed the 2009 New York Yankees for the first half-hour. John Connelly and I then provided our pre-season award picks for the American League and discussed the Tampa Bay Rays' recent trade with the Colorado Rockies.

Use the media player to listen.

Most Valuable Player: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians

Sizemore is one of the premier players in the American League. Do not worry about his declining batting averages (.290, .277, .268 the past three seasons, respectively), because the sweet-swinging center fielder has been one of the more valuable-defined by producing wins-players in the league since his BA totals started to fall back in 2006. His combination of outstanding on-base skills, plus power and speed is almost unparalleled in the game today.

Sizemore deserved to be in the discussion for the award in 2008 as well. He was unfairly impacted by the fact that his teammates underachieved and let him down in the first half, though, hurting his chances with the voters who rarely select candidates from non-contending teams. In actuality, when factoring in defense, positional and offensive considerations, the Silver Slugger award winner was one of the most productive players in baseball; he was worth 6.8 value wins, according to his FanGraphs' page.

Sizemore hit .279/.370/.491 with 33 home runs, 90 RBIs and a 128 OPS+. Although he was strikeout-prone at times, his .185 ISO and 13.4 walk rate were impressive. He was also an asset with the glove, saving 6.8 runs above an average center fielder to win his second, and a deserved, Gold Glove award.

Sizemore, about to turn 26, is entering the peak stage of his career. If he can maintain his production in the power and walks department while playing top-notch defense at a premium position, it is hard to picture too many players who could be as important to their respective clubs. Also, he is playing on one of the favorites in a wide-open American League Central division. So, if Cleveland rebounds, the voters may actually reward his on-field greatness with some hardware.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mauer (if healthy), Mark Teixeira, B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton

Cy Young Award: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Halladay is a horse, a true ace. He had another dominant performance on the mound for Toronto in '08, posting a 2.78 ERA, 154 ERA+ and 3.03 FIP to anchor one of the majors' best pitching staffs. He produced the second-best K/9 rate (7.54) of his career while allowing only 18 home runs and 39 walks in a league-leading 246.0 innings pitched. Incredibly, he had as many complete games on his own as practically every team on the circuit, invoking memories of the days of Nolan Ryan.

Making his statistics more impressive, Halladay performed at such a high level while facing one of the most difficult schedules in the league. Pitching in the deep American League East, of course, did not do him any favors; it would be scary to see what he could have done in, say, the National League West. He reached the 20-win plateau despite making a significant percentage of his starts against three of the most competitive teams in baseball and receiving minimal run support from the Blue Jays' anemic offensive attack. The big right-hander relied on his low-90s sinker (avg. velocity 92.7 MPH), cutter, curve ball and change-up to make his job look easy, registering a 53.7 ground ball percentage and 5.38 K/BB ratio. In all honesty, he deserved to take home the award over Cliff Lee, when putting the comparison into the proper context. As outstanding as Lee, who went 22-2 with strong peripherals, was on the hill, his output would not have been quite as outstanding had he not had the luxury of facing weaker competition in the A.L. Central.

Look for Halladay to maintain his tremendous level of success, continuing to make a habit of getting hitters to roll over their hands and drive the ball straight into the ground. He may not have the win figure that voters love-to no fault of his own, which is why team-dependent win-loss record is such an overrated method for judging a pitcher's effectiveness and talent level-while pitching in what could be the strongest division in baseball history. Based on pure performance, though, he will be in the discussion, regardless.

Honorable Mention: CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez

Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have handled the situation beautifully, sending Wieters down to delay his arbitration clock and save potentially millions of dollars for when the franchise is actually ready to compete down the road. As a Scott Boras client, it is unlikely that the Orioles will be able to lock up the talented young catcher to a long-term extension similar to the one reached between the Tampa Bay Rays and third baseman Evan Longoria this time last spring. So, though he is clearly more talented and would be more valuable than stopgap Greg Zaun, there is just no need for the organization to bring up the prized prospect now. Baltimore is on the right track for the long term, but, objectively, the club has only slightly better odds of competing in the A.L. East in 2009 than Corey Patterson does of winning an M.V.P award. Plus, he only has 208 at-bats above A-Ball to his name. A little bit more seasoning at Triple-A cannot exactly hurt, and may be best for his long-term development.

With that said, Wieters is for real. It is tremendously rare to find a catcher with such a diverse and impressive skill set. If he lives up to the hype as expected, in fact, the O's might have just inherited a once-in-a-generation type star to become the face of the franchise.

Wieters, who fell to the O's with the fifth pick of the 2007 draft, is a switch-hitting masher with a sound plate approach, power to all fields and the ability to hit for a high batting average. He projects to be a middle-of-the-order run producer; how many catching prospects can scouts say that about? The soon-to-be 22-year-old absolutely mashed in his pro debut, combining to bat .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, a 1.054 OPS and 91 RBIs in 437 at-bats between High-A Trenton and Double-A Bowie. His .365/.460/.625 line in the Eastern League was one of the finest hitting displays in the history of the circuit, right up with there with the likes of several Hall of Famers and perennial All-Stars. He posted rates of 15.4 BB%, 1.20 BB/K and posted a .260 ISO, showing his plus power.

When it comes to evaluating minor league performance, of course, it is not just about the statistics. The process in which a player achieves those statistics is what really matters at the early stages of his career. With Wieters, the scouting reports match the on-field production. Talent evaluators have a difficult time coming up with ways to knock him as a hitter-outside of his foot speed, that is.

Wieters is not just a Mike-Piazza-type, a catcher who can rake but is limited on the other side of the ball. In fact, he profiles as above average behind the plate, too. He has drawn strong reviews for his receiving skills, and, despite concerns about his height and build, can shut down a running game with his plus arm strength; he was once clocked in the mid-90s off the mound during his days at Georgia Tech.

Zaun will be the everyday catcher at Camden Yards in the interim. As soon as Baltimore frees itself of any Super Two implications with Wieters, though, look out. CHONE projects him to post a line of .274/.352/.439 as a rookie, which, compared to the level in which PECOTA expects him to perform at, is on the pessimistic side. Even if he does not exceed that line, he will instantly become one of the best offensive backstops in the league. Thus, even if he misses six weeks, he remains the favorite to add the most value of any other rookie candidate for the award. Look for him to make a Ryan-Braun-like bid by posting insane numbers in the second half.

Honorable Mention: David Price, Rick Porcello, Travis Snider, Taylor Teagarden

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.