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    White Sox Unlikely To Repeat As Division Champs

    Monday, March 30, 2009, 11:26 PM EST [Chicago White Sox]



    The Chicago White Sox exceeded expectations in 2008. Chicago, which defeated the Minnesota Twins in a one-game playoff for the American League Central division title on the final day of the season, won 89 games on its way to another postseason appearance under general manager Ken Williams.

    The White Sox received noteworthy performances from young starters John Danks and Gavin Floyd, as well as a breakout from left fielder Carlos Quentin. Quentin, who hit .288/.394/.571 with 36 home runs and a 148 OPS+, was a legitimate M.V.P. candidate before sustaining a season-ending injury down the stretch. Despite losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in a four-game Division Series, though, it was a surprising and successful team performance on the South Side overall.

    Going into 2009, the Central division is again wide open, with no clear-cut favorite and several teams that could contend depending on unforeseen variables. With that said, Chicago has quite a challenge ahead of itself as the club attempts to repeat as division champs. The reason: there are some holes on the roster, with a few below-average players expected to see significant playing time.

    The biggest concern lies in center field. Dewayne Wise will likely see the majority of innings at the position, at least initially, and is expected to bat leadoff. Wise is not exactly an ideal solution at the position, boasting a career line of .214/.254/.385 and 62 OPS+ in 468 at-bats. Obviously, that .254 career on-base percentage will not cut it in a leadoff role. The 31-year-old journeyman, who has been up and down between the minors since he made his major league debut in 2002, is not exactly a stellar defender at the position, either, with a career UZR mark in the red.

    Essentially, despite a nice three-week run last September, Wise is a replacement-level player; he has been worth -0.9 value wins cumulative over his career. Jerry Owens, who was also competing for the job, was placed on waivers on Monday. That almost says more about Owens than it does for the rest of the potential options at the position, including Brian Anderson. Anderson, a solid defender, is equally as limited offensively. He just has not been able to produce with a bat in his hands at the highest level, having posted an anemic line of .221/.277/.379 in 597 career at-bats.

    Regardless of who ends up seeing the most time among the aforementioned options, the position will represent a major area of weakness.

    There are some issues at other positions as well. Chris Getz is currently penciled in as the White Sox starting second baseman. Getz is an average player who has solid contact and on-base skills, and is a decent enough defender at the keystone. Since being drafted out of the University of Michigan back in the fourth round of the 2005 draft, he has hit .286/.361/.381 in 1,428 minor league at-bats. Obviously, he does not offer much in the power department, but he is a capable enough option to keep the seat warm until top middle infield prospect Gordon Beckham, a first-round pick out of the University of Georgia in 2008, is ready to take over full time at some point in the summer.

    Getz beat out Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix for the job. Lillibridge, who came over from the Atlanta Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade, adds solid depth as a utility infielder.

    Sticking in the infield, Josh Fields is finally ready to take over at the hot corner for good now that Joe Crede is out of the picture. Fields, a former first-rounder, had a nice debut in Chicago in 2007, smashing 23 home runs in 373 at-bats when Crede was on the shelf with a back injury. He struggled through a disappointing '08 campaign, however, after being sent back down to Triple-A Charlotte. He was limited by a knee injury, which required surgery this past offseason, and wound up batting only .246/.341/.431 with 10 home runs-not exactly the kind of production that the Chicago front office was hoping for.

    Fields is still young, of course, and could breakout-given the plus power-when given the chance to play third base on a full-time basis. He has some deficiencies in his skill set, though, which cannot be ignored. To start, he has a poor approach at the plate and has had serious contact issues as a pro; he struck out in 33.5 percent of his Triple-A plate appearances (98 strikeouts against 27 unintentional walks) in '08. His walk rates have not been all that terrible, but, since he is a not a hitter who will hit for a high batting average, his OBP is likely to hover near or at a below-average clip. So, while the power is legit (he posted a .236 ISO with the White Sox in '07), he is going to have to put up a high slugging percentage to add real value at the position. The major projection systems predict that he will post a wOBA between .322 and .349 in '09, with rates of around 10.0 BB% and 30.0 K% and solid power marks. He is also a potential platoon candidate, given his struggles against lefties and the presence of Wilson Betemit, a valuable bench player who fares well against left-handed pitching, on the roster. The only defensive data available on him works against his favor as well, and, either way, he is a downgrade with the glove compared to the slick-fielding Crede.

    While the position issues listed above could come back to haunt the White Sox, there are some other questions facing the team as well:

    • Can Quentin stay healthy? If so, can he maintain his M.V.P-quality performance or is he headed for a regression? The talent and power are for real, but his self-inflicted wrist injury could prove to be a problem.
    • Will Paul Konerko maintain his second-half performance?
    • Alexei Ramirez is an exciting young player, but he has a concerning approach at the plate and has flashed well below-average on-base skills. Ramirez is moving over to his more natural position at shortstop, but can he provide adequate defense there? All of the advanced defensive metrics-granted, the sample size is small and the systems do still have flaws-graded him as below average at second base, so the move to the more challenging, physically demanding position may be an issue.
    • Floyd went 17-8, causing many to believe that the former first-round pick had turned the corner. Finally. His peripherals were less than stellar, however, and he greatly benefited from a seemingly unsustainable .259 batting average on balls in play. His so-so strikeout and walk rates are also a concern, and he was homer prone as well; he produced rates of 6.32 K/9, 2.44 BB/9 and 1.31 HR/9.
    • Can they count on Jose Contreras anymore, and will Bartolo Colon provide any value at the back end of the starting rotation?

    Chicago has some young pitchers who could make an impact, such as southpaw Aaron Poreda. The holes on the 25-man roster that were not addressed this winter, though, will make a repeat difficult. Williams is never afraid to strike a deal, which could affect the landscape of the division. Right now, though, CHONE's 73-89 win-loss projection for the White Sox, while on the pessimistic side, is not that far off. Either way, the Central race should be exciting as the defending champs and key contenders all could be done in by a couple bad breaks/disappointing performances throughout the course of the season.

    Tyler Hissey is a co-host of Minor League Notebook Weekly on BlogTalkRadio. Click here to listen to Tyler and Doug Gray discuss prospects with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. He is also the editor of Around the Majors on MVN.com.

    To hear Tyler preview the 2009 Cleveland Indians, use the media player below.


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