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    Cubs Easy Favorites In Central

    Sunday, January 4, 2009, 06:14 PM EST [Chicago Cubs]

    Teddy Mitrosilis and I recently began our division-by-division breakdown on BlogTalkRadio, beginning with the National League West division. The series continued with the National League Central, and we wrapped up the Senior Circuit with the N.L. East this past Monday. Click here to listen to our latest show.

    The series will continue on Monday (1:00 Eastern), as we switch to the American League, starting out West. Use the media player to listen live.

    To supplement our work via podcast, we are also going to put our work into writing as well. In this post, we take a close look at the N.L. Central, and what to expect from each team in the division going forward in 2009. Teddy began the series with profiles on the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates. Next up is the division-champion Chicago Cubs.

    Recap: The Chicago Cubs were the best team in the National League all season, only to go three-and-out in a disappointing Division Series performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers. All-in-all, the Cubs simply picked the wrong time to slump, playing uncharacteristically poor baseball when it mattered most, again showing why the playoffs are such an unpredictable beast.

    Offense: The Cubs' offense was excellent, batting .278/.354/.443 as a team. Chicago scored 855 runs overall, a higher total than every team in the majors outside of the Texas Rangers. Not coincidentally, they led the league in on-base percentage.

    The offense was driven by a solid core of Mark DeRosa (118 OPS+), Aramis Ramirez (128 OPS+), Alfonso Soriano (121 OPS+) and rookie catcher Geovany Soto (120 OPS+).

    DeRosa was unsure what his role would be during spring training. Chicago was reportedly close to bringing in second baseman Brian Roberts in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles, which would have forced the veteran infielder to serve as a super utility-type. Lucky for him, though, the trade never happened. The versatile DeRosa flourished in a full-time role at second base, batting .285/.376/.481 with 21 home runs and 87 RBIs.

    Ramirez continued to produce as well. The big third baseman produced a line of .289/.380/.518 while hitting 27 homers. He also paced the club with an .898 OPS and 111 RBIs.

    Soriano would perhaps be better suited to hit in the middle of the order-due to his low OBP and poor career walk rates-but continued to do what he does, hitting for power while swinging at everything remotely close to the strike zone. He missed some time with injury, yet still managed to lead Chicago with 29 home runs in only 109 games, hitting .280/.344/.532 in 453 at-bats.

    Soto put together one of the best rookie performances offensively by a catcher in major league history. The 25-year-old backstop tore up the circuit, hitting .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers to establish himself as one of the premier hitters at the position in the game. For his efforts, he was an easy selection as N.L. Rookie of the Year.

    The Cubs, boasting a diverse offensive attack, also received serious contributions from several other hitters.

    Although first baseman Derek Lee had a down campaign by his standards, he still smashed 20 homers. Lee batted .291/.369/.462 overall while providing his usual excellent defense at first base.

    Shortstop Ryan Theriot also contributed above-average production relative to his position. While Theriot gets a little bit overrated for his defense, his .307 batting average was attached to a solid .387 on-base percentage.

    Also worth mentioning is the performance of Jim Edmonds, who could not catch up to an average fastball during his first few weeks with the San Diego Padres. After coming over from San Diego, though, Edmonds was invaluable in Chicago as his bat seemingly awoke from the dead and he somehow began to drive the ball again. The veteran outfielder posted an outstanding 136 OPS+ in 250 at-bats, swatting 19 home runs. With Kosuke Fukudome struggling in the second half, the addition of Edmonds was huge.

    Mike Fontenot had a dream run as well, providing serious value off the bench. Fontenot hit .305/.395/.514 in 243 at-bats, an impressive line that he is unlikely to maintain.

    Run Prevention:

    As great as the Cubs' offense was, the team was equally effective on the run prevention front. Chicago, which allowed the second-fewest amount of runs (648) in the N.L., featured perhaps the most balanced attack in baseball.

    The starting rotation was excellent, going 69-40 with a 3.75 ERA as a group.

    Surprisingly, the leader of the staff was reliever-turned-starter Ryan Dempster, who was recently brought back on a four-year, $52-million deal. Dempster was nothing to write home about during his days as the Cubs' closer, but was forced into a starting role in spring training. The 31-year-old right-hander then delivered a top-five pitching performance, flourishing in the new role in a walk year. He posted a 151 ERA+, striking out 187 in 206.7 innings pitched.

    Southpaw Ted Lilly (17 wins, 109 ERA+) and Carlos Zambrano (14 wins, 114 ERA+) were each effective as well. Lilly was roughed up at times, but ended up striking out 184 in 204.7 innings. Zambrano threw a no-hitter in the infamous neutral site game at Miller Park, but was bothered by injuries. The burly right-hander is as good as any pitcher in the majors when his command is on, though.

    Rich Harden was an excellent addition to the staff when he came over from the Oakland Athletics in a mid-summer trade. Harden has shown that he is among the elite pitchers in the game when he can stay on the field, but injuries have held him back. He gave Chicago 12 excellent starts following the trade as he was able to avoid the injury bug, going 5-1 with a 252 ERA+ in 71.0 innings pitched. If he can stay healthy enough to pitch, he gives the Cubs a solid front-line arm in 2009.

    Jason Marquis, who was recently traded to the Colorado Rockies in a move that will free up around $5-million in payroll, won 11 games, but was fairly average overall. Marquis' stuff is underwhelming, he does not miss bats (91 Ks in 167.0 innings pitched) and his peripherals were concerning. In fact, he produced a 99 ERA+, indicating that he was below league average. Which means that he will not be all that difficult to replace at the back of the starting rotation.

    The Cubs' bullpen was also strong. The Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood combo in the late innings was lights out. Marmol was dominant in high-leverage situations, striking out 114 in 87.3 innings. The young righty, who was used to get important outs in the seventh and eighth innings, also led the relief corps with a 167 ERA+. Wood, who found a niche in the backend of the bullpen, missed a lot of bats, showing off devastating stuff on the way to saving 34 games. The former phenom remained healthy enough to make 65 appearances, continuing to enjoy success in a relief role.

    Jeff Samardzija was effective when called upon as well. Samardzija, the former Notre Dame wide receiver, posted a 196 ERA+ in 27.7 major league innings, offering glimpses of what the future holds. Although he may end up as a starter in the long run, he gives Chicago another solid late-innings option for '09.

    The Cubs also excelled in the third leg of the run prevention equation, team defense. The defense, in fact, ranked first in the N.L. with a .705 defensive efficiency rating, as the unit featured plus defenders at nearly every position on the diamond.

    Looking Ahead:

    The core of the Central champion roster returns, making the Cubs the early favorite to repeat as division champions. The talent is there for them to make a deep October run as well.

    The Jake Peavy talks are at a standstill. If for some reason the discussions reignite and Peavy is sent to the Windy City, look out. That would give the Cubs perhaps the strongest starting rotation in the N.L.

    Expect big things from Harden in his first full go-round in the weaker league. If he can stay healthy, he is a realistic All-Star candidate. Lilly and Zambrano are good for 180-plus solid innings as well, and the defense should again be an area of strength.

    One concern is the loss of Wood, who signed with the Cleveland Indians in early December. Jim Hendry traded relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda-who has sensational stuff and misses bats-to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Kevin Gregg, a puzzling move which could come back to haunt them. Gregg is proof that closers are made, not born; he is simply nothing all that special. He will take over in the eighth inning, moving Marmol into the closer role.

    Clearly, this combination is not as strong. One of the reasons Marmol was so valuable is that Lou Pineilla could extend him for more than one inning on occasion, using his "relief ace" in high-leverage situations. Now, it seems, he will be limited to ninth-inning duties, which leaves Gregg to fill in those other, often times more important, spots.

    Samardzija will help matters, but, since relievers are volatile creatures, there might be a slight regression in the 'pen.

    Offensively, the loss of DeRosa and Edmonds will hurt. DeRosa, who was traded to the Indians for three minor leaguers, was unlikely to replicate his stat line, but is still a strong offensive player who can play multiple positions on the diamond effectively. Thus, he will be missed, and Hendry did not bring in all that much in return for his services. The Cubs are looking to add another outfielder to the right/center field mix. Joey Gathright can jump over cars (seriously, check this out on YouTube), but bringing him on board alone will not suffice.

    Fukudome, Gathright, Reed Johnson and former top prospect Felix Pie are currently expected to compete for time in these spots going into spring training. This is clearly concerning, given that not a single player listed is really good enough to justify 500 plate appearances.

    Fukudome, who has shown excellent plate discipline, got off to a hot start, hitting .279/.383/.408 before the All-Star break. The Japanese import fell off the map as a R.O.Y. candidate with a disastrous second half, however, losing playing time as he slumped offensively. He ended up at .257/.359/.379, a line which he will obviously need to improve upon to avoid the bust label. The 31-year-old outfielder has fallen out of favor with Pineilla, but the Cubs have invested too much money into him to leave him on the bench. Either way, he is an ideal platoon candidate who will likely split time in right field.

    Pie has been considered one of the top prospects in the Chicago farm system for quite a while. Poor strike zone awareness and low minor league walk rates have dimmed his star a lot, however, and the Gathright signing calls into question his status in the organization. At this point, it seems unlikely that he will ever break out in a full-time role at the highest level.

    The Cubs have shown interest in free agent outfielder Milton Bradley, who led the American League with a .999 OPS. According to the ESPN Radio affiliate in Chicago, a deal has been reached, and could be announced at some point this week. Bradley would be a nice upgrade in the middle of the lineup, but his knees have taken a beating over the years and there is no telling if we will be able to stay on the field enough to play the outfield consistently. In fact, the switch-hitting slugger has only played 100-plus games twice in the past seven years, and his health status is a legitimate concern. Either way, the Cubs appear to be willing to take the risk on him in a short-term deal, counting on him to fill their need in right field. Health issues aside, the man can, and will, hit.

    Regardless of what happens, the Cubs have as much talent as any team on the Senior Circuit. The franchise is going to dominate the Central, yet again.

    To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

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