
The writers got it right.
Albert Pujols was a pretty easy choice for the 2008 National League Most Valuable Player.
In the end, it came down to a two-man race. Pujols edged Ryan Howard, the 2006 M.V.P., in the voting by 61 points to win the award for the second time of his career.
While the right player ended up on top, the vote margin should have been a lot larger. The gap in actual value between the two first basemen was stark.
Pujols posted considerably better numbers in the stats that have the most correlation with producing runs, OBP and slugging percentage. He registered totals of .462 and .653 in these categories, respectively. Howard finished with a less-than-stellar .339 OBP and .543 slugging percentage.
Pujols also finished second in the league in batting average, hitting .357. Howard, on other hand, hit only .251 for the year. At the All-Star break, his line was even worse than that: .234/.324/.508.
Equally as telling, Pujols ranked first in his league with a 1.114 OPS and staggering 190 OPS+. OPS has its flaws as a statistic, but still is a useful way for determining offensive value.
Howard finished 14th with an .881 OPS.
The Philadelphia star garnered some serious consideration for his counting stats and excellent performance in September. He led the league with 46 home runs and 146 RBIs, of course, and delivered a bunch of key hits down the stretch.
The HR, RBI totals and nice finish are the fundamental points in the case for Howard, especially since his team made it to the postseason. Pujols ended up with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs while his team finished in fourth place in the N.L. Central.
However, counting stats are derived from context and do not tell the full story.
Howard had nine more homers than Pujols, but nearly 100 more at-bats. He also had more RBIs, the function of opportunity. With high-OBP players Jimmy Rollins and Chase Ultey setting the table ahead of him, he was given 50 more chances with RISP and nearly 100 with men on base than Pujols.
Pujols was actually the better hitter with RISP, batting .323/.523/.678/.1.201 OPS. Given the same opportunities, he would have easily paced the circuit in RBI. Howard, who was also excellent with men on base, was not quite as good in the same situation: .320/.439/.589/1.028. He also struck out nearly 200 times.
Plus, defense is a major factor here as well, since there is more to baseball than just hitting. Pujols deserved to win the Gold Glove at first base in the N.L., losing out to an undeserving selection in Adrian Gonzalez. He did, however, pick up his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award as the best defender at the position in either league, which is more of an honor. Howard graded out as below average with the glove.
Pujols is a much better all-around player, and it is not even close. He said it himself that a player must play for a contending team to be considered for this award. What he said is not relevant, though, and, in my opinion, was a misguided statement. The man can hit, but is wrong on this front.
Often times, players are unfairly left out of awards like this because of the poor performance of their teammates. The Cardinals were not very good in 2008, but still managed to remain in contention until the end of August. If Pujols was not on the roster, St. Louis would have been out of the race back in June.
Howard played for a winner, because the Phillies' roster was loaded with several other potent hitters and stars. In fact, one could make a strong case that he was not even the most valuable player on his own team, as Brad Lidge, 41-for-41 in save opportunities, and Chase Utley also had tremendous years.
Utley, in particular, seems more worthy of this award when defense is a factor. He graded out as the most effective defender at the keystone while hitting 32 home runs. He also produced a higher batting average, OBP and OPS than Howard at a more important infield position.
Howard was huge in September, hitting .352/.422/.852/1.274 OPS. He also belted 11 homers, several of which were game-changing blasts. He truly picked the best time to get hot while, leaving an image of greatness in the voters' minds when they had to turn in their ballots.
Last time I checked, though, the games in every other month count, too. A win in May does not receive the same attention, but means just as much in the standings as a victory in a pennant race. With this in mind, it is hard to ignore that Howard hovered around the Mendoza line for much of the year and was not a factor at all in April, June and August. In all honesty, there are at least five more deserving candidates.
Pujols was consistent throughout the year. He produced at least a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, .550 slugging percentage and .970 OPS in every month, which is pretty incredible. He also provided several huge hits down the stretch, hitting a sensational .366/.456/.706 in the second half. Essentially, if Pujols and Howard had switched places in spring training, the Phillies would have won the N.L. East by around 10-to-12 games, running away with the division in August instead of having to clinch in the final week.
In other words, if Pujols played for the Phillies, he would have been a near unanimous selection. Why should Pujols be penalized because he did not have better teammates?
The right man won. Looking at objective data, though, the victory should have been more of a landslide.
Imagine what Pujols will be able to do with a healthy elbow.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.
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