PSPKNINE'S BIG TEN PICKS ---- WEEK # 12      UPDATED

 

Well, week # 11 in is the books.  We had our share of upsets plus a couple very dominant games by both Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Actually it was a pretty good week for the Big Ten all in all.  Yes, the Big 10 lost any hope of having a representative in the National Championship game but, Penn State obviously did not belong to be there anyway so it might be better to lose one now rather than be embarrassed in the national spotlight.  

As it turns out, the Big Ten now has three teams ranked in the top 15 of this week's BCS rankings.  The conference, on a whole, is showing some parity and toughness, unlike some other conferences that are just showing that they just weren't quite what all the pundits were expecting them to be. 

Well, let's get to it.  

MICHIGAN STATE:  Bye week. 

This is actually a win-win for Michigan State.  First, they get a much needed break and it comes at an opportune time, prior to their final regular season game against Penn State on November 22nd.  Additionally, they get to sit back and watch if a possibly down-trodden Oklahoma State team can beat the Colorado Buffalos in Colorado this weekend.  There is a possibility of one or two others teams currently ranked ahead of Michigan State losing also they will only move up in the rankings next week.  

And the envelope says:  Michigan State will hold the # 14 BCS ranking next week.

Ok, I was wrong about michigan State moving up a notch in the BCS.  Michigan State is still at # 15.  They did benefit however both mentally and physically from their week off.  Nobody has seriously threatened the Nittany lions at home this year, at least not by the end of the game.  They have seen Penn State have three very poor first halves at home though, including one this past weekend against Indiana.  Michigan State has got to be thinking that they really have a great shot shot to beat the Lions this coming weekend.  Of course they also know that, if they can beat Penn State, they will only end up sending Ohio State to the Rose Bowl because there is just no way that Michigan can handle the Ohio State team. 

Northwestern @ Michigan:  

This game could be, and maybe should be the game of the week.  Northwestern got crushed by Ohio State and Michigan experienced a major resurgence in their program after five straight losses against a good Minnesota team that had been surprising a lot of teams. 

For Northwestern, they have to know that this Michigan team does have talent and their showing against Ohio State was not good.  Northwestern has to come into this game in Ann Arbor needing to prove something to everyone, especially themselves.  Northwestern moved the ball reasonably well against Ohio State, getting 20 first downs and with a third down percentage of 53 %, which is good against the Buckeye defense.  By the same token they had three turnovers.  Additionally, Northwestern took 85 yards away from themselves in penalty yardage.  No team can do that against Ohio State and expect to do well.  

Northwestern must take care of the football and keep their mistakes to a minimum.  Neither their offense nor their defense is dominant enough to make up for multiple turnovers. 

Michigan on the other hand is an enigma.  Which Michigan shows up from week to week seems to be a roll of the dice.  Michigan dominated Minnesota this past weekend on both sides of the ball, gaining 435 yards on offense and holding Minnesota to only 8 first downs for the game - only one in the first half.  Of course Michigan has had their problems in previous game this year, losing a shoot-out with Purdue (allowing 48 points) and only scoring ten points against Toledo in Ann Arbor.  

Well who wants to throw the dice?  I myself am thinking that Michigan comes back home intent on showing the world that they aren't really that bad and, in fact, if and when they all get on the same page, they can actually be good.  Their first half of the Penn State game and their past game against Minnesota should prove that Michigan has some talent.  Now they are trying to prove it to themselves also.  In this game we have two teams that are trying to prove just who they are this week.  That's why this game could be a real humdinger and could well be my game of the week.  For now though: upset special??? 

And the envelope says:  Michigan 28 - Northwestern 14  

The real deal - Northwestern 21 - Michigan 14.

Well, how wrong can I be about a game anyway?  Not only did I pick the wrong team but the score wasn't particularly close.  Actually the game was fairly close in most areas, turnovers, total yards, first downs and time of possession, with michigan edging Northwestern in most of those areas.  Michigan took a lot more penalties though and the timing/field position of the turnovers was key.  The Michigan defense handled the run nicely, limiting northwestern to 59 yards on 37 attempts but they couldn't stop the pass.  Cpnversely Northwestern couldn't handle the run but they held the Michigan passing attack to 12 of 36 attempts for a total of 83 yards.

Michigan couldn't get it done in the second half - again.  This game does not bode well for bowl-bound Northwestern, especially if they get paired up against a team that has a real rushing attack.  Northwestern has some work to do yet, not the least of which will be getting ready to handle Juice Williams and company next week.   Northwestern will be at home for the last game of the regular season so they should be ok.     

Purdue @ Iowa:  

Iowa gets another home game and this one against a team that shouldn't push them quite as hard as they were pushed last weekend.  Purdue is not having a good year.  They lost five in a row before beating Michigan in a Big 12 south kind of game 48-42, and then they came out and were thoroughly dominated by Michigan State, only being able to score a last minute touchdown to avoid the shut-out.  

Looking at Iowa one would think that this game should be an easy game for them.  The only thing that could stand in their way might be themselves.  Purdue can put up points, as evidenced by the Michigan game, and they can also play some good defense as evidenced by only allowing Penn State 20 points and Ohio State 16.  My concern in this game is that Iowa could be a bit hung over after their big win this past weekend.  I don't believe that will happen because I think the coaches will have them well grounded, but it can happen.  Personally I think that Shonn Greene will run for 200 plus yards this weekend and Iowa will drop-kick the boilermakers in Iowa City.  

And the envelope says:  Iowa 41 - Purdue 14. 

The real deal Iowa 22 - Purdue 17

I expected Iowa to dominate this game with the ground attack and they did just exactly that.  In fact Iowa rang up the purdue defense to the tune of 248 yards on the ground with Greene getting over 200 as predicted.  However the Iowa secondary gave up 251 yards through the air on 37 of 52 passes by Purdue.  If Greene does not receive serious mention relative to the Heisman race I will think he is getting robbed.

I think it was clear that Iowa was not playing up to potential, but even at that they should have had no problem putting Purdue away.  Iowa is another Big Ten bowl-bound team that has a few areas that need tweaked a little anyway.  Stanzi was 8 of 15 for 72 yards.  With the running game hitting on all cylinders there generally is not that much need for a passing game.  Chances are however that not only in their bowl game, but their game next week against Minnesota will also require a bit more of a passing attack.  Minnesota might be just the perfect game for iowa to ensure that all facets of their game are operating as intended.          

Minnesota @ Wisconsin:   

This is a very interesting game and one that could also actually be my game of the week, if I weren't such a Penn State homer that is.  Minnesota has had two poor showings its last two games with a close loss to Northwestern and what could almost be considered a blow-out loss to Michigan.  Wisconsin had a terrible mid-season spell, losing four in a row to teams that they normally are very competitive with.  They have played their last three games though very tough, beating Illinois and Indiana and losing a heart breaker to Michigan State.  

This game closes out the year for Wisconsin in the Big Ten, as their final game of the year is against Cal Poly.  Right now their record stands at 5 and 5 and they really need two wins to cement a spot in a bowl game.  This past week they put up over 600 yards of total offense while holding Indiana to 274.  Wisconsin won the game in Indiana 55 to 20 while having four turnovers.  Now that is an impressive performance.  I know that Indiana is really looking bad at this point but four turnovers often lets a lesser team into a game.  Wisconsin is not going to have the luxury of being free and loose with the ball this weekend, even at home.  

Minnesota has a bowl game wrapped up with their 7 and 3 record thus far.  I'm not sure if they think they are taking a break or what but they need to pick up their performance a lot this week to compete with the Badgers.  Minnesota has had several good games this year.  They have been reasonably close in their losses and a couple of their wins have been impressive.  Then again some of their wins have been real close too, like by 4 points over Northern Illinois, a 16 to 7 game against Indiana and a 27-20 game against Illinois.  Minnesota is currently sitting at number 4 in the Big Ten along with Northwestern, Illinois and Iowa.  I believe that this log jam at # 4 will start to clear a bit this week but Minnesota moves down instead of up. 

And the envelope says:  Wisconsin 42 - Minnesota 10  

The real deal - Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 32

This is yet another game that I missed badly on the point prediction.  I expected Wisconsin to come out and hang about 500 total yards on the Gophers but the teams played out fairly evenly.  This was a sloppy game and both teams shared in both dishing out and receiving the slop.  There were 6 turnovers between the two teams and 117 yards in penalties shared.  limiting the mistakes will be something that boths teams need to work on quite a bit in the coming weeks.  If this game would have been played in Minnesota we might have seen a different result.

Both of these teams will be bowl-bound.  Hopefully Wisconsin can get back to thriving on offense next week when they take on Cal Poly.  Minnesota catches Iowa in Minnesota next week.  That game could be very interesting.

Ohio State @ Illinois: 

This could be a real decent game.  Of course for that to happen, Illinois would actually have to play football this week.  What happened to playing teams tough Illinois?  You gave Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota and Wisconsin all they wanted, and then some, then you go out and lose to Western Michigan out of the MAC conference?  Throw me a friggin bone here guys. 

Illinois is a better team than that.  Illinois gained 80 more total yards than Western Michigan but of course Illinois threw two interceptions also to Western Michigan's one turn-over.  Still, Illinois has to play better than that in representing the Big Ten.  A 5 and 4 Big ten team should beat a 7 and 2 MAC team every time.  It should be basically like playing against the Pac 10, excluding USC of course, which is about the only team in the Pac 10 that still plays football, right?  

Ohio State had a very impressive road performance this past week against Northwestern.  Ohio State rang up the Northwestern defense for 244 yards on the ground and another 197 yards through the air on only 9 pass completions.  Guess what that means?  Ohio State has opened their playbook a bit and they are going downfield with the ball.  That is a welcome change from the play calling earlier in the year, when it seemed that Uncle Jim was keeping the play calling very close to his sweater vest.  I could understand keeping things fairly simple at first when Pryor first started playing but Boeckman is a very experienced quarterback that certainly had a good handle on things to start the year.  

Regardless of the cause earlier, it seems that Ohio State is now ready to pull the strings on offense a bit more.  Illinois will have trouble handling, Beanie Wells.  Terrell Pryor shouldn't be too much of a problem considering the fact that he is cut out of the same cloth as Juice Williams so they are used to dealing with a fast and mobile quarterback.  The Ohio State defense is either going to win or lose this game.  

This one shouldn't be close on paper but the game is being played at Illinois.  Illinois is 4 and 1 at home this year, with their only loss coming at the hands of Minnesota by 7 points.  In that Minnesota game, Illinois gained 550 total yards while giving up 312 total yards.  462 of Illinois' yards came from the passing game.  Illinois also had two fumbles and an interception lost in that game compared to only one turnover for Minnesota.  

Illinois needs two wins badly to lock up a bowl berth.  Ohio State is playing to keep their chance of going to the Rose Bowl alive and well.  Ohio State should win this game by 21 points even though Illinois is tuff at home.  

And the envelope says:  Illinois 21- Ohio State 17.

The real deal - Ohio State 30 - Illinois 20.

This game was actually a bit closer than the score.  Ohio State was the better team, without a doubt but Illinois has been playing tuff at home this year and they did it again this weekend.  Illionois actually outgained Ohio State by 100 total yards and they had a very balanced attack.  They held Pryor to 49 yards passing but they could not stop the running game.  I felt certain that Illinois would be accustomed to containing a quarterback that can run.  I was obviously incorrect.  Pryor gained 110 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Additionally, Wells ran for 143 yards and a 6 yards per carry average.  

Juice outgained Terrelle with 192 yards through the air plus 48 yards on the ground.  It seemed to me that Ohio State got the ten point lead at the half and then sort of turned on the cruise control a bit.  The game was fairly well played with illinois having two turnovers and Ohio State having one.  The teams shared a total of 58 penalty yards.  Illinois could obtain bowl eligibility next week at Northwestern.  That could be a good game but Illinois is on the road.  Even if they do pull out the win they end the season with a 6 and 6 mark.  Ohio State will most likely be in a BCS bowl game.  They played solid ball and did everything they needed to do to win the game but it was not overly impressive.  They can do better.               

Now that is a ballsy pick, based mainly on Illinois playing at home and me thinking that maybe Ohio State has convinced themselves that this game will be a walk.  Besides that, lurking way back down in the recesses of the Ohio State player's minds is the upcoming game against Michigan on the 22nd.  Michigan just proved last week that they still know how to play football and Illinois did not.  I'm guessing that maybe, just maybe, Illinois catches Ohio State napping just a bit.  The Juice runs loose in Champagne.  Sorry Seabass. 

 

Indiana @ Penn State:  Yep, my game of the week.  

How in the world could this be anybody's game of the week you ask?  Well, let me tell you.  Penn State is going through a dilemma at this point.  They are questioning themselves, especially Darryl Clark, and the defense is questioning their ability to stop the run after Shonn Greene lit them up for 117 yards this past weekend.  Indiana wouldn't appear to impose too much of a challenge for Penn State this year. 

Not so fast.......  Penn State has just proven yet again that they have their weaknesses.  Additionally, the last time Penn State lost a game late in the year after they thought they had all the pieces together, they totally fell apart for the next several games.  God, I hate even sounding a little bit like Lee Corso.  The coaches are going to have to do a job to get the team up enough mentally to play anything more that tiddlywinks.  I'm not sure that the coaches can do that.  In fact, if anything, the Penn State coaching staff has shown in the past that they have no ability whatsoever to prepare their team mentally for anything. 

Anyway, Indiana has only played in a couple of close games this year; one to Central Michigan and one to Northwestern.  They even won the Northwestern game.  They did beat Murray State and Western Kentucky handily to start the year.  No, I do not expect Indiana to win this game, especially in Happy Valley.  If Penn State does not come out though ready to play and put up at least 50 points while holding Indiana to under 15 points then they will lose to Michigan State the following week.  Penn State must come out like this is a bowl game, determined to run through people and score at will.  Anything less will be seriously bad news.  Anything less and they might as well just camp out at Paternoville for the Michigan State game.  I expect that this game will be a walk but we need Penn State to play like the game means everything because, in some ways, it does.  This game must heal the Lions. 

And the envelope says:  Penn State 55 - Indiana 10. 

I have to tell you that I was thoroughly disappointed with this game, especially the first half.  Penn State made more mistakes in this one game than it seems like they had all year.  Again Darryl Clark was less than impressive, throwing a pick and losing two fumbles.  Clark did do some things right though but i'm not sure if it was enough to build his confidence level to where it needs to be to compete next week.  

I said that this game must heal the Lions.  I think it did defensively, with the exception of the one 57 yard run they gave up to Thigpen in the first quarter.  In fact even including that 57 yard run the Nittinay Lions only gave up 180 total yards on 53 plays.  Without that one play Penn State's defense surrendered 2.3 yards per play.  Of course it was against Indiana who just does not have much going offensively this year.

Penn State gained 23 first downs on 442 yards which isn't a bad performance but, when compared to what Wisconsin put on indiana (over 600 yards) it isn't exactly good either.  Penn State had three turnovers and 25 yards in penalties for the game.  That is the season high for turnovers and one of their highest penalty against totals on the year.  In fact one of the main reasons for Penn State's success this year has been the lack of mistakes, especially on offense.

Indiana finishes the regular season next week against Purdue to decide the occupant of the  Big Ten cellar for the year, after which their season comes to an end.  Hopefully they will find something to build on. 

Penn State plays Michigan State at home next week to determine the Big Ten Champion and of course the Big Ten's Rose Bowl participant.  Penn State has a few things to work on this week.  They will not be able to play Michigan State like they played Indiana.  They have to work to get Darryl's head screwed back on straight quick, fast and in a hurry.  Actually Indiana was doing nothing but trying to strip the ball, but they had some good success with it.  I'm sure that Michigan State took note of Indiana's success and will be coming to Happy Valley intent on doing the same thing. 

Next week's game is going to be very interesting.                

Home field advantage is weighing heavily in my picks this week, particularly the Illinois game.  Ed, sorry about the PSU/Indiana game pick.  

There are a few games here that really could go either way so the picks from both Seabass and IHawk will be more than entertaining.  By the way all you Penn State fans, please don't mind the little birdie occupying my avatar this week.  The Lion will be back next week. 

Here are the links as promised:

Seabaa's week 12 picks will be here:  Seabass

IHawk's First Look for week 12 in the Big Ten - IHawk_1st_look 

IHawk's Picks will be here   IHawk's week 12 picks are here:  IHawk