Well, here we are yet again, another bowl season and yet again we find the vast majority of Big Ten teams heading to the bowl games.  This year the Big Ten is sending not one, but two teams the BCS bowls.  Of course the Big 12 and the SEC are also sending multiple teams each to the BCS games also. 

 

Let's get this party started by looking at the bowl games that really count this year, the games in which Big Ten programs are playing.  The National Championship game is nice and all and it should even be entertaining.  Just seeing Oklahoma play against a team that does have a defense will be interesting actually.  Other than that though, does anyone here really want to watch Alabama whoop up on Utah?  How about watching Tulsa and Ball State tangling, or dancing, or whatever it is they do?  Texas tech v. ole Miss will be a blow-out and Va. Tech and Cincinnati?  I mean does anyone except the players from those two schools really care?  I know, some do care and I understand that.  

 

No sports fans, the games that will be much more interesting to watch will be the games in which there is a Big Ten representative playing.

 

Here is a quick breakdown: 

01/05 - Texas v. Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl - the line is Texas -10.5  01/01 - USC v. Penn State in the Rose Bowl - the line is USC -10.5 

01/01 - Georgia v. Michigan State in the Cap. 1 bowl - the line is Ga. -7 

01/01 - S. Carolina v. Iowa in the Outback  - the line is Iowa -3 1/2   

12/31 - Kansas v. Minnesota in the insight Bowl - the line is Kansas-10

12/29 - Missouri v. N. W. in the Alamo Bowl - the line is Missouri -13.5 

12/27 - Florida St. v. Wisconsin in the Champ Sports bowl - the line is FSU -5  

 

It should be noted that all Big Ten teams are considered away teams for the bowl games.  

 

I point out the lines to show that only one Big Ten team is favored this bowl season.  In the games in which we have ranked teams involved, the Big Ten team is ranked lower than each of their opposing teams, at least in the BCS rankings. 

 

This tells us that the Big Ten teams are picked to lose 6 of their 7 games this bowl season, and, according to the professionals in the business, the Big Ten teams are heavy to fairly heavy underdogs in all but one of their games.  

 

I submit however that the odds-makers may be drinking just a bit too much of the SEC and Big 12 cool-aid this year though and the intent of this article is to explain to you why I believe this to be the case.  Thus comes the long of it:

For one thing, because the Big Ten is sending some quality teams into games in which they are heavy underdogs, the Big Ten teams just have more reason to to be competitive.  I actually believe that several of the favored teams will be of the opinion that all they really have to do is show up to win their games against their Big Ten opponents, especially the teams playing in the first two games reviewed below:   

 

Texas v. Ohio State:  

 

We will start at the top, with the Texas, Ohio State Fiesta Bowl.  Texas certainly deserves to be at the Fiesta Bowl, if not in the National Championship game.  Remember they did beat Oklahoma and, if not for a last minute touchdown scored by Texas Tech, the Longhorns would be in the NC game.  Texas should be heavily favored against any two-loss team, and they are.  

 

Of course we have to look at the two losses that Ohio State had also before we reach any foregone conclusions.  Ohio State got beat badly at USC early in the year when Ohio State was without their star running back and before Mr. Pryor was playing consistently.  Can two people make a difference?  I don't know the answer to that one for sure but I can tell you that with both Pryor and Wells in the offensive backfield Ohio State is a different team. 

 

In looking at the Penn State - Ohio State game, both teams played that game so close to the vest that it simply came down to who made a mistake first.  Unfortunately for Ohio State, the freshmen quarterback, the aforementioned Terrelle Pryor, made that mistake and Penn State capitalized for the win.  

 

Ohio State and Mr. Sweater-vest knows that they cannot play this bowl game close to the vest and expect to compete for any length of time against Texas.  Texas has the offensive weapons that will score, sooner if not later.  This Ohio State team though is not the same team that played either USC or Penn State.  Pryor will have twice as much playing time and experience as he had when he played against Penn State and Wells will be 100 %.  That will provide Ohio State with a running attack and the running threat on every down.  

 

Both Ohio State and Texas have had very good seasons against some good opponents.  In fact the opponents of both teams sport an impressive 69 percent winning percentage.  Both teams played against numerous bowl teams this year.  

 

After meandering their way through their respective schedules, the Ohio State defense ranks 9th in the nation in points allowed, 19th in total yards allowed per game and 25th in passing yards allowed.  Conversely, Texas ranks 24th in total points allowed but 5th against the rush and 229th against the passing game. 

 

The difference in this game will be the play of Terrelle Pryor.  Pryor has to put some zip on the ball when he throws it.  It seems that Pryor throws his passes with a bit too much touch sometimes, lobbing it even on the long throws.  As little respect as the Texas defensive backfield might deserve this year, their backers are quick.  If Pryor lobs the ball he could have a couple picked off.  If Pryor comes out moving the ball through the air effectively they can use a successful passing attack to loosen up the Texas linebackers.  If Coach Tressel somehow misses the stats though regarding the Texas run defense and thinks he is going to have Beanie Wells rush 40 times this game it could get ugly.

 

I do know however that Jim Tressel is nobody's dummy.  He has known for a couple weeks now that the Texas defense thinks run first and then gets over everything they give up through the air.  This is Pryor's opportunity to shine and this young man wants to impress everyone more than anything else in the world.  Pryor is still very young and he will make mistakes.  Pryor will be the difference-maker in this game, without a doubt.  If Pryor is on and makes very few mistakes, Texas, and the rest of the college football world for that matter, could be in for a very abrupt surprise. 

Additionally, one must consider the fact that Texas believes they were screwed out of the shot at the NC, and many fans join them in that thinking.  The Texas players know the point spread and I am sure that they feel that they only have to show up to win this game convincinlgy.  I just do not believe that is going to happen though.

 

Pryor is the wild card in this game.  If he passes accurately and runs decidedly when he has the opening, Ohio State just might pull off the shocker and knock the Big 12 down a few rungs on the conference ladder.  Besides that, they aren't playing against an SEC team so Ohio State should be good to go.  I have faith in young Mr. Pryor.  It is time for Ohio State to shine!!!

 

My Fearless prediction - Texas 24 Ohio State 27. 

 

 

USC v. Penn State:  

 

Again we see a Big Ten team at 10.5 point underdogs.  I had been laughing the last few weeks of the regular season listening to the so-called professionals saying on air words to the effect of "Who really wants to play USC at this point in the season?" 

 

I can answer that question.  Penn State wants USC and they have wanted USC since the Nits clobbered Oregon State.  The worst thing that could have happened to Penn State was Oregon State beating USC.  Luckily, Oregon came through for us and beat Oregon State at the end of the regular season, sending USC to the Rose Bowl. 

 

Playing Oregon State again in the Rose bowl could have only been a lose/lose situation for Penn State.  The best thing that could have happened is that Penn State trounced Oregon State again and then everybody just says that yes, Penn State is still better than Oregon State.  If the game is close or, if (heaven forbid) Oregon State would have pulled off the upset, then Penn State would have lost any ground that the Big Ten might have made up this past year. 

 

Playing against USC however provides Penn State with the opportunity to be in a win/win situation while USC is in a lose/lose situation.  If Penn State wins or even keeps the game respectably close, then Penn State wins some respect for both themselves and the Big Ten while USC loses a bit because all the pundits are saying how great this USC team is.  Even if USC blows Penn State out, the experts would simply indicate that they are not surprised and then go on with life.  

 

Don't get me wrong here, USC is a great team.  They had better be a great team actually, considering the fact that they have been getting twice as many 5 star recruits than any other College Football program over the course of the last five plus years.  My wife, who doesn't know one end of the football from the other would have easily been able to put together unbeaten seasons back to back to back with this group kids if she had just told the players to go out and do what they want to do.  In fact how Pete Carroll can justify losing even one game every year to any other team simply amazes me, but his team has proven to be fairly adept at losing games they aren't supposed to lose.  

 

USC is now the one however that is, to some extent, in a lose/lose situation.  Because USC is so well liked by the oundits, If Penn State comes out and keeps the game close or pulls off the "upset", then everyone says what a down year the PAC 10 had and how the entire conference really sucks, which is actually true of course for the most part this past year with the notable exception of USC.  Even if USC were to win convincingly they do not win many points or make a case for "We should have been in the NC game" by beating Penn State because the perception is that Penn State is nothing special.  I personally like it that way. 

 

What we really have here is a Penn State team that has, by many measures, over-achieved this year.  Everyone knew their offensive line would be very good and their core receivers were excellent coming into the year, but the quarterback, running back, defensive line and linebackers were a question mark for those that knew this team.  Penn State lost three defensive linemen from last year, two All American Linebackers, a very good quarterback and running back.  What's more is their defense was not only untested, but very young with the exception of the defensive backfield. 

 

Both teams have a multitude of weapons on offense.  The defenses of these two clubs though are both outstanding, with the USC defense proving to be exceptionally strong.  Both defenses have basically shut everyone down with one or two exceptions.  Of course we must look to the schedules to see who each team has actually shut down. 

 

These two teams have played throughout their schedule with strikingly similar results.  Penn State has played against teams that are currently sporting a 71 and 72 overall record.  It is actually pretty bad to have a schedule that has posted an overall losing record, even if it is by a very slight margin.  USC's opponents have gone 70 and 76 this year, which is even worse of course.  Penn State has played against 6 teams with a winning record and USC has played against 5 teams with a winning record plus Notre Dame, who finished their regular season going 6 and 6. 

 

Their respective rankings are as follows: 

                          Penn State                              USC 

                 Offense        Defense          Offense         Defense 

Points/gm    12th                 5th                16th                1st 

Yards/gm      24                  12th               23rd                1st 

Rushing/gm 29th                22nd              32nd              10th 

Passinggm  67th                34th               53rd               3rd 

 

Now some might say that the Pac 10 is more of a passing conference, with most teams passing a majority of their plays.   Others might say that a more balanced attack, similar to what most offenses in the Big 10 run, is much more difficult to defend against.  On the other hand, the Pac 10 does have its share of quality running backs.  Most of them play for USC of course, but they are in the Pac 10 nonetheless.  

 

Others might say that most of USC's opponents were far enough behind early on that the only choice they had was to pass consistently, abandoning the running game and doing things like going for the first down on a 4th and 5 regularly, hence the good defensive numbers.  Plus of course it is always much easier to defend against the pass when you have a real good idea that 75 percent or more of the opponents plays will be passes. 

 

I tend to believe however that the USC defense is for real.  They played some quality opponents and their defensive speed is out of this world.  Of course, other than Ohio State, USC has not faced a team that plays a real physical style of football on the lines.  USC plays a lot of fast teams and a few teams that they play have physical linemen, but those team's stock and trade is not their physical nature on the lines for the most part.  On the other hand, Penn State does not play many teams that have real good team speed.  Again, a few teams they have played have good speed, but speed has not generally been the stock and trade of the Big 10 for the most part. 

 

I am not going to go into detail relative the similar opponent comparison.  Most people are well aware of the fact that both of these teams played against Ohio State and Oregon State with differing results.  I personally do not believe that the performance of any team that has to travel up to 3,000 miles is a very good indicator of their true abilities.  Suffice it say that both Oregon State and Ohio State got trounced pretty good when traveling to Penn State and USC respectively while Oregon State beat USC in Oregon and Penn State squeaked by Ohio State in the Horseshoe.  I am just not convinced that this comparison is a reliable indicator of future performance.  All teams involved can simply take a Mulligan on the dates of their respective losses or call it an off day and that may well be true. 

 

This game comes down to two major factors.  For USC, they are back in the Rose Bowl again against a Big Ten team - ho hum.  USC could well believe that they deserve to be playing in a better bowl game, maybe even in the National Championship game.  After all, the pundits generally agree that USC and Texas are the best teams not playing in the National Championship game.  The only team to beat USC has been flirting with being nationally ranked and USC lost that one on the road.  Florida lost a home game to Mississippi and, even though Mississippi has worked themselves into the national rankings, I would think that losing a home game would hurt more than losing an away game.  That is just my opinion of course but I do believe that if you can make a case for Florida or Texas, then one should also be able to make a case for either USC and Penn State.

 

I can only imagine that USC will be a little complacent and over confident going into this game.  USC, if you need any help in this area, refer to the 1986 National Championship game, when Miami was reportedly good enough to beat several NFL teams.  Penn State is not doing over confident this year.  They normally do not engage in the overconfidence thing by the way, even when they can be.  It is an attitude and coaching thing that those on the left coast just wouldn't understand. 

 

This game for Penn State all comes down to their attack.  Penn State's defense will be fine overall.  Yes, they will give up a few big plays to the USC offense.  I think that is a given.  Penn State's offensive game plan though will be the biggest key to this game.  Penn State can run the ball on the Trojans.  No, Penn State will not gain 200 yards on the ground, but they can be effective enough to keep USC guessing as to what is coming at them, which USC is not used to seeing.  

 

If Penn State comes out and keeps things opened up a bit, mixing in some good screen passes, play action and by hitting their tights ends regularly and with enthusiasm, then Penn State is in this game all the way.  If Penn State comes out though thinking that they are going to play this game like they played against Ohio State and Iowa, keeping everything close to their vest and just waiting for the other team to make a mistake, Penn State could get beat soundly.  

 

Personally, I am looking forward to a great game.  This one could be a real slobber-knocker and I think that both teams will learn quite a bit about the other.  Penn State is not going to be in awe of USC and that is something else that USC will not be used to.  Penn State has played as well or better on the road this year than at any time in the recent past.  That is all this is going to be - one more away game. 

 

I believe that Penn State might just really surprise the Trojans next week.  They will surprise them with a bit more speed than USC would normally expect from a Big Ten team and with the strength and tenacity to match their own.  Neither team is going to be intimidated.  Additionally, I believe that the fact that Penn State will not be intimidated will be a source of concern for USC.  In fact I look for USC to take a couple of unsportsmanlike penalties in this one, going just a bit too far in trying to intimidate the Nits. 

 

I think JoePa lets his team play and have some fun this year and I think they represent well.  I also think that this will be a defensive battle, a low-scoring affair that will most likely be decided in the closing minutes.  I also believe that USC is in for a very rude awakening.  I also believe that Penn State will win its fourth Bowl game in a row. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - USC 17. Penn State 20.   

 

Georgia v. Michigan State:  

 

In this game the Big Ten representative is a 7 point underdog to the SEC team. 

 

On the surface, Michigan State appears to have a one-dimensional offense.  That is actually true to some extent.  Javon Ringer is an excellent running back and he has proven that just about every week during the regular season, rushing for almost 1600 yards in 12 games.  What most people overlook is the fact that the Spartans have amassed 2200 yards through the air this year also, which isn't too shabby. 

 

Georgia however has a very balanced offense, with Stafford throwing for over 3200 yards and Moreno rushing for over 1300 yards while averaging almost 6 yards per carry.  Moreno is a very good running back - one that you don't hear a lot about but he should be collecting some accolades.  

 

Ringer is a workhorse and a great back but his average is less than 4 yards per carry.  Of course Ringer did have a few days on which he was held basically in check, against Ohio State and Penn State mainly. 

 

Another thing that concerns me a bit in this game is the Michigan State quarterback Hoyer.  Hoyer is capable of being a very fine quarterback but he is also capable of making the big mistake. 

 

A win for the Spartans would be huge.  Beating an SEC team in a New Years day bowl would be huge.  Georgia has a lot of weapons though and I think this game will come down to how the defenses stack up.  The Michigan State defense has had its bright moments but in the big games, they just didn't show up.  MSU gave up 45 points at home to Ohio State and 49 points against Penn State in State College.  What's even worse is that they gave up 38 points against Cal in California.  As with all the Big Ten bowl games, this game is an away game for the Spartans. 

 

Let's go inside the numbers for a bit.  Both teams are 9 and 3, good for third in their respective conferences.  Curiously, both teams have played 6 teams with winning records, two teams with 6 and 6 records and 8 bowl teams.  That's pretty much where the comparison ends however. 

 

Michigan State's opponents have gone a combined 78 and 66 which isn't too dusty.  Georgia's opponents have however gone a combined 86 and 56.  I don't know if you chalk that up to Georgia playing in the SEC or if it might have something to do with the fact that Michigan State does not play FCS schools and the like as most other teams do.

 

Below are the team's respective rankings:   

                          Michigan State                         Georgia 

                    Offense      Defense            Offense           Defense 

Points/gm       111th           78th                 50th                132nd 

Yards/gm       131st           136th               32nd                  56th 

Rush/gm        136th           136th               103rd                 81st  

Pass/gm         113th          139th               26th                   81st 

 

Georgia obviously compares much better in their rankings and the teams they have played against have a better won-loss record.  Michigan State fans should start worrying right about now.  If they weren't already worried, let me add to it just a bit.  In your two Big Ten losses this year, Ringer had a combined total of 33 rushes for a total of 109 yards for a very pedestrian average of 3.3 yards per carry.  Additionally, you guys gave up 203 rushing yards to California.  Yes, that is the Pac 10 Cal.      

 

Not so fast.....   Georgia fans have a reason to be concerned too. Georgia came into the year as the pre-season concensus number 1 in the country.  They have wound up looking very less than impressive.  Georgia was less than impressive with their 14-7 win against South Carolina, they looked terrible in the first half of the Alabama game, they barely squeaked by Auburn (who was really pretty bad this year) and Georgia has not really had an impressive win all year.  The closest thing to impressive that Georgia has on their resume is the win against a very over-rated LSU team by the score of 52 to 38. 

 

The turnovers were the difference in the South Carolina game, with South Carolina gaining more yards, putting up more first downs, etc.  The same can be said about the LSU game in that LSU had better offensive numbers than Georgia had but the three turnovers that LSU suffered just killed them. Kentucky out-gained Georgia on the ground and had a better first down percentage but each team had two turnovers and Georgia won that game 42 to 38.  The Auburn game was played extremely evenly and that game ended up a win for Georgia by a score of 17-13.  That is just less than impressive.  Georgia is a team that could very easily be 8 and 4, 7 and 5 or even 6 and 6. 

 

On a positive note for MSU, they did not suffer their usual late-season let down, as they have the past few seasons.  For a while there it seemed that Michigan State would come out playing good ball and fade at the half-way mark.  Not so this year.  Michigan State has played consistently good ball from start to finish and they have beaten the teams they should have with the exception of Cal of course, their first game of the year.  

 

This game is really difficult to call.  Georgia has played better against better opponents but they have gotten lucky too.  Michigan State has played most of their schedule tuff but they have had two blow-out losses against good teams that they should have been able to at least hang with a bit more than they did.  Georgia has also been beaten soundly but that was against Florida and the first half of the Alabama game.  Yes, Georgia came back in the second half to make the game respectable but the game was not as close as the score might lead some to believe. 

 

Being a Big Ten homer, I lean toward giving the nod to the Spartans, although Georgia is clearly the better team overall.  I tend to believe however that this game will come down to attitudes.  These are two programs that went in two totally different directions this season.  Michigan State started the year with no love coming their way at all and Georgia was the pre-season # 1.  Since then, Michigan State has scratched and clawed their way into the 18th spot in the latest BCS rankings and Georgia has fallen to the 15th spot.  Michigan State needs a win to gain some respect and Georgia might just feel that their season was a wasted effort based on the respect that they have lost. 

 

When it all comes down to it, Michigan State has consistently proved that they can not defend a balanced attack and Georgia has that balanced attack.  The Michigan State offense is a bit too one-dimensional, which will allow Georgia to plug the running lanes and wait for Hoyer to beat them.  As much as I would like to think that is possible, I just don't think so.  I really hope I am wrong on this one. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - Georgia 41, Michigan State 21.    

 

South Carolina v. Iowa:  

 

Here we have the one and only game in which the Big Ten team is favored to win.  That is with good reason too although the point spread is not particularly impressive at 3 points. 

 

Neither team is ranked coming into this New Years Day bowl game, but Iowa is very close, just missing the cut coming in at 26.  Iowa is sporting an 8 and 4 record and a fifth place finish in the Big Ten while South Carolina comes into the game at 7 and 5 and tied with LSU for fifth place in the SEC.  

 

This game boasts two very good defenses.  I think the difference in this one comes down to Shonn Greene and the Iowa Offense though.  

 

Iowa has a hard-nosed defense but they also have an offense that can move the ball effectively.  Even against some very good defensive teams, Greene has enjoyed 100 plus yard rushing games.  South Carolina's defensive numbers look great but their offense has been less than impressive through the year.

 

We are going to go inside the numbers fairly quickly on this one because I just don't think there is that much to discuss in this game.  No, I'm not saying that Iowa will blow the Gamecocks out, but this should not really be as good a game as I had originally thought that it may be.  The more I look at Iowa the more I am convinced that they just could not catch a break this year, with the exception of the Penn State game of course.  Iowa has played everyone tuff, but, other than Penn State, they did not really get a whack at the usual Big Ten cream of the crop either.  

Iowa's opponents have a combined record of 79 and 66 and they have played against 7 teams with a winning record and 6 bowl teams.  Iowa has lost to three of those bowl teams.  It should be noted however that they lost those three games by a combined total of 9 points. 

 

South Carolina's opponents have a combined record of 85 and 60, which is deserving of some respect.  They have played against 7 teams with winning records and 7 bowl teams, but they have lost to five of those bowl teams by a combined margin of 88 points.  Of course 50 of those points came at the hands of Florida in a blow-out. 

 

The biggest difference between the schedules of these two teams is that Iowa has not been blown out by anyone, anywhere.  The same cannot be said about South Carolina although they really were only blown out by Florida in that one game.  The Clemson game was not a blow out loss for South Carolina, especially if you look at the box score or watched the game       

Respective rankings are as follows: 

                              Iowa                            South Carolina 

                  Offense       Defense           Offense    Defense 

Points/gm      63rd              11th                  177th         54th 

Yards/gm       95th              26th                  180th         25th 

Rush/gm        52nd             24th                  212th         78th 

Pass/gm        158th            95th                  100th        18th 

 

This is where the real difference comes in.  If Greene does not rush for 200 plus yards in this game I will be thinking that maybe he has the flu or something.  Iowa's rushing game should control the entire ebb and flow of the game.  Iowa should dominate time of possession and field position.  Understand that South Carolina will get some of its passing game in.  They will pass for a few big gainers and they will probably even score some points.  

 

This game boils down to Iowa's strengths in the ground game on offense and defensively against the rush.  I would be surprised if South Carolina rushes for more than 100 yards as a team.  South Carolina will pass for 200 yards in this game but Iowa has faced better passing games than what South Carolina can offer up and they have withstood the storm.  

 

Both teams have something to prove in this game because there is some sentiment that neither team belongs in this game.  I cannot agree though at least concerning Iowa.  They have played everyone tough, they have beaten a top ten program this year and they have showed well against every team they have played.  

 

South Carolina fans can take heart in the fact that Iowa's passing game is not the best.  Stanzi has been serviceable but not overly impressive.  Your defense too will provide a challenge for Iowa.  If Iowa makes even one or two mistakes this could be a very close game and your team speed could surprise Iowa a bit.  Just don't be too surprised to see some speed on the other side of the ball.  Iowa is not one of the old-fashioned slow motion Big Ten teams of old.  They will still punch you right in the teeth.  They are still a Big Ten team of course.  They will just get there quicker now to do it. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - Iowa 31, South Carolina 14.     

 

Kansas v. Minnesota  

 

This is actually an intriguing game.  It is intriguing to me anyway because I am anxious to see which Minnesota team shows up.  Will it be the Minnesota team that lost their last four games, one of those to a 4 and 8 team, or will it be the Minnesota team that played their first 8 games at 7 and 1?  Kansas is favored by ten points in this game.  I'm afraid that might not be enough. 

 

Both teams are 7 and 5 on the year, with the gophers coming in 6th place in the Big Ten and the Jayhawks coming in 7th in the Big 12.  

 

Both teams actually started the year impressively.  Both teams though got their early wins against some truly inferior opponents the first half of their respective seasons.  As the season rolled out, Kansas played several much better opponents than Minnesota.  

 

Minnesota suffered a real blow-out loss against Iowa and they looked horrible against a Michigan team that was horrible in their own right.  Kansas got blown out against Texas Tech and some might say that Kansas got blown out against Texas too but that game was actually closer than a 35-7 score might normally indicate. 

 

I think that this game comes down to Minnesota starting the season off great and thinking that they were something special.  They took the 34-21 loss against Ohio State in stride because, well, it was a loss to Ohio State after all.  They came back after that loss and won against Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, after which the wheels fell off.  They ended their season losing to three bowl teams and a hapless Michigan team that they had no business losing to.  

 

Kansas started the season with two impressive wins, against Florida International and Louisiana Tech, and then they lost to South Florida.  After their first loss they came out and won three against FCS Sam Houston State, Iowa State (barely) and Colorado.  Then they hit the tuff portion of their schedule, losing to Oklahoma, getting blown out by Texas Tech, beating Kansas State convincingly, and then losing to both Nebraska and Texas before closing their season out with a win against Missouri.  I don't know about anybody else, but an excellent team could make a case for losing two of those last six games and I wouldn't argue with them.  

 

Kansas is not a great team and they have their weaknesses, but nothing like the weaknesses that Minnesota has shown the latter half of their season.  Yes, although I think that Minnesota could have maybe played this Kansas team tuff in the first half of the year, I believe that Minnesota is really questioning everything at this point.  If Minnesota's losses had all come to good teams, they could have some solace.  That is not the case however and getting blown out by 55 points in the season finale against Iowa, who does not regularly put up huge numbers, is just inexcusable for any team planning on winning a bowl game.  Of course maybe not all is lost for Minnesota in this game. 

 

Of course if coach Brewster can get inside the heads of the Minnesota offense a little and their new offensive line coach (hired at the conclusion of the regular season) can make any difference, then Minnesota might even make this a game.  Minnesota is putting a new wrinkle into the spread offense.  They will be running the ball out of the I formation against Kansas to some extent, using a fullback for the first time this year and lining up one of their two freshmen running backs seven yards behind the line of scrimmage, so their offense will look a bit more like Penn State's Spread HD.  That will give the rookie backs an extra step to pick a hole and an extra blocker at the point of attack.  If Minnesota can somehow come up with an I formation that will give them some amount of effectiveness in the running game, then they could push the Jayhawks and make this a good game.  Changing the offense to this degree might also be just what this Minnesota team needs to give them back some level of confidence.  Making the new offense effective though with only 15 practices between their regular season and the bowl game might be a real challenge though. 

 

Let me digress back to the previous performances for both of these teams.  Minnesota has played some decent opponents who have amassed an overall record of 74 and 69.  Sort of middle of the road.  They have played 5 teams with winning records and 6 bowl teams with 4 of their 5 losses coming against those bowl teams. 

 

Kansas has played a much more difficult schedule, with their opponents generating an overall record of 87 and 58.  They have played 7 programs that have posted a winning season and those 7 teams are all bowl teams.  All of Kansas' losses have come to those bowl teams. 

 

Both teams have beaten two bowl teams.  For Minnesota, their wins against bowl teams were against Northern Illinois and Michigan State. The Kansas wins against bowl opponents were Louisiana Tech and Missouri.  

 

Here is how the teams rank nationally:  

                               Minnesota                                 Kansas 

                      Offense         Defense               Offense     Defense 

Points/gm       156th                99th                    48th          179th 

PSPKNINE'S  Big Ten picks - Week 13   UPDATED

Well, week 12 in the Big Ten was very interesting, with bowl implications throughout.  Wisconsin made a statement, as did Ohio State, Penn State, Northwestern and Iowa.  Some of those statements were not real loud of course but all of those teams stated that they wanted to play in a bowl game.

Wisconsin said "Hey, let us in".  Ohio State said that they are still around lurking in the recesses.  Penn State said that they were still alive, at least defensively.  Northwestern said that they have some tenacity left in them and Iowa said "Wow, that was a hell of a party". 

Some might say that Michigan even stated that they really didn't care about anything at this point in their season.  Personally I just think it was a bit more of the same from Michigan - look decent in the first half but fall off the second half.  Some might even say that they were saving themselves for the Ohio State game.  We will have to see about that.

Well, without further ado, on to this week's picks:

I am going to update the blog a bit early this evening - in fact WAY early.  Iowa and Minnesota are still in the third quater of their game.  I really have no business updating this post at this point but, after being at Beaver Stadium for most of the day, I am still cold and I have the wood cooking in here so I am looking for an excuse to stay put right now.  That and of course I am very happy with the way my picks have gone this week of course.  Besides that, Iowa put Minnesota away in the first half so that game is about as over as it can get.

Talk about some big scores today?  Today has been nothing like the rest of the Big Ten season.

While I'm here and thinking about it, I would also like to point out that it is now time for all Big Ten fans to start cheering on all the other Big Ten teams that will be representing in the upcoming bowl season.  I am asking for an official end to the intra-conference sniping at this point and the official start of the Big Ten fan club as opposed to individual team fan clubs.  Go BIG TEN. 

Indiana (3-8) @ Purdue (3-8): 

Purdue has now lost 7 of their last 8 games and Indiana has lost 8 of their last 9.  The showdown at Purdue this weekend could be a real test of wills for these two teams.  Both teams are currently sporting 3 and 8 records, so this game will determine the bottom of the Big Ten cellar for 2008.

Purdue offers a bit more of a passing attack than Indiana and the Hoosiers offer a bit more of a running game.  Both defenses are fairly ordinary however Purdue has put in a few good defensive efforts this year.

One interesting stat in this game is that Purdue has played five teams ranked in the top 25.  They haven't won any of them but I would suggest that their competition might have been a bit better than Indiana's this year.  A second stat that jumps out at me is the fact that Indiana has not won a game on the road this year.  A guy I know once told me that if you have two bad teams playing each other, stick with the home team.  I would have to agree with that thought.

And the envelope says:  Purdue 27 - Indiana 14

What actually happened - Purdue 62 - Indiana 10    WTF, did I see that right?

Ok, I want to talk to the person that truly envisioned this score in this game.  Go ahead, raise your hand...... I'll wait. 

I didn't think so.  Holy smokes, Painter was on fire in this one.  Painter accounted for all but a fraction of 479 yards passing by the Boilers, while they ammassed 35 first downs and 596 total yards.  Holy smokes.  I'm sorry Ed but that is total ownage.  To top that off Indiana gave up two interceptions and a fumble.  A dominating game just does not get any more complete than this game.  Well, check that for right now.  Iowa is winning 48-0 just starting the fourth quarter of their game.          

Illinois (5-6) @ Northwestern (8-3): 

This game also offers a contrast in style.  Illinois is more offensive-minded than Northwestern and Northwestern is more defensive-minded than Illinois.  

The Juice has the potential to be a real game breaker, both with his arms and his legs.  Of course Northwestern plays solid defense, with their opponents averaging 20 points per game.

Bacher for Northwestern has thrown 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year.  Additionally, Northwestern does not have a real go-to back, with Sutton accumulating just 770 yards on 150 carries this year.  Kafka actually has the better numbers of the two quarterbacks but he still has thrown more pics than touchdowns.  

Juice Williams has passed for 1,000 yards more than the Northwestern quarterbacks and their running game has also been more productive with Juice racking up almost as many yards on the ground as Sutton has for Northwestern.  Of course their defense gives up over 26 points per game too, so they need the extra offense just to compete.

Here is an interesting stat of the game.  Northwestern is 1 and 2 at home against the Big Ten this year.  Something else to ponder is that Illinois is 1-4 away from Champagne.  I think Northwestern evens their home record against the Big Ten.

And the envelope says: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 17

What actually happened:  Northwestern 27 - Illinois 10.

Ok, I was fairly close on this pick.  Actually this game might have been the best watch today as these teams played a very even football game statistically.  Both teams got 21 first downs and total net yardage gained was 339 for Northwestern and 335 for Illinois.  The Penalties were reasonably close and each team has one interception.  Time of possession did favor Illinois by almost two minutes.  Illinois did have a fumble however, while Northwestern did not.

This biggest difference between these two besides the extra fumble by Illinois was punt return yardage, one of which set Northwestern up at the Illinois 20 yard line.  

I'm sorry that Illinois did not get their 6th win and become bowl eligible but I am happy that Northwestern got the win and could get the nod for a New Year's Day bowl.  

Five Big Ten teams playing on or after New Year's Day this year would be a bit much to hope for but it sure would be fun.  I'll push for three though.       

Michigan (3-8) @ Ohio State (9-2):

This game is one that should not be close.  Ohio State should dominate this game from the start.  With that said, Michigan has played a couple decent first halves of football this year.  They even played for all 60 minutes once or twice this year.  I think that Michigan will have to play for about 90 minutes in this game to have any shot at all.

Ohio State has a good ground game and their defense is very strong.  Their linebackers are real ball hawks and they have great closing speed.  Laurinaitus will most likely collect a slew of post season awards, deservedly so.   

Offensively, Ohio State has come into their own of late, even showing on occasion that they can open up the playbook and grab some big chunks of yardage quickly.  Pryor is playing well and continually getting better.  Pryor has over 100- yards passing for the year after starting on the bench and he has rushed for 560 yards which is only 400 fewer than Wells.  Of course Wells missed several games also.  

Michigan plays a half decent rush defense but nowhere close to as good as they need to be to compete with Ohio State.  They have a decent defensive front and they might be able to put a little pressure on young Pryor but I do not believe that Michigan can show Ohio State anything that they haven't seen before this year.

Michigan might make this look like it could be a close game for the first 20 minutes or so.  If Ohio State does not come out and punch Michigan right in the mouth from the start this game could end up looking a lot closer than it should be.  Ohio State just has too much talent and skill for that however.  Michigan winds up ties for the Big Ten basement.  How long has it been since that has happened?

And the envelope says:  Ohio State 35 - Michigan 14

What actually happened:  Ohio State 42 - Michigan 7.

Hmmm, not too far off on the score, 7 points for each team.  This game was an example of pure domination also.  Michigan was 1 for 17 on their third down attempts, the gained 198 total yards and they gave up two fumbles.  No team has a chance of doing that and beating the Buckeyes.  To go along with their defensive domination, Ohio State's offense looked solid, gaining 416 yards with 232 of those yards coming from the running game.

There were very few penalties in this game.  One stat that doesn't get much attention are the punt returns.  A quick snapshot of the game would be Ohio State's 5 returns for 110 yards, compared to 2 returns for 10 yards for Michigan.

Ohio State should be playing in a BCS bowl and I believe, deservedly so.  I'm thinking Orange Bowl.  For Michigan, what can be said after the worst record in school history besides that Rich Rod will get you there eventually.  You have some talent and, as soon as Rich gets some guys in their that can thrive playing his schemes, you will be right back in the thick of things.  Just please quit losing recruits.           

Cal Poly @ Wisconsin (6-5):

You might have noticed that I did not enter Cal Poly's record for the year behind their name above.  That is not because I am too lazy to look it up, it is just because their record simply does not matter.  That and of course maybe I am just lazy.

Wisconsin is playing more like a Wisconsin team should play of late and they are playing at home in the final game of the regular season to get to 7-5 on the year and a respectable bowl game.  Notwithstanding their ugly game last week, they have been getting more consistent and hard-nosed as the year goes on.

Hold the phone though guys.  This little Cal Poly team is not someone that should be taken lightly.  These guys put up numbers that look more like basketball scores than football scores.  Wait a minute, I follow Penn State, remember?  Their scores look like Penn State's basketball scores, maybe not the basketball scores for the rest of the Big Ten.

In their last game, the Cal Poly Mustangs won 51-27.  They gained 522 total yards for the game and 427 of those yards came on the ground.  What's more is that Cal Poly is ranked fifth in the FCS division in rushing defense.  Their opponents in that last game (UC Davis) gained 366 yards in total offense, only 34 of them came on the ground.  Cal Poly has won 7 straight games now this year and their record is 8 and 1.  See, I'm not that lazy.

In their one loss this year, Arkansas, Little Rock beat them 67 - 40.  That's where my basketball score analogy came from.

The long and the short of it is that Cal Poly is not coming into Wisconsin to be nice, to make a paycheck or to try to attract some attention.  They are coming to pull an Appalachian State on Wisconsin's ass and if Wisconsin isn't ready to play this game things could get real ugly, real fast.

Please Wisconsin, for the sake of your bowl game and the Big Ten conference in general, please pummel these guys and do it right out of the box.  Don't let them hang around.  If you overlook these guys they will put some numbers up on the board on you and it would seem that they might be able to hold PJ Hill to a mild roar in the ground game.

This game is really not a good situation for Wisconsin.  Nothing good can come of it for them.  If they win, even if they win huge, everyone just says it was a FCS division school and the game is forgotten.  If they play it close though or, heaven forbid, lose the game, then both Wisconsin and the Big Ten suck and are overrated, etc.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.

And the envelope says:  Wisconsin 27 - Cal Poly 24                                       Way too close for my liking.

What actually happened:  Wisconsin 36 - Cal Poly 35.

I was worried about Cal Poly giving the Badgers as much as they could handle and they pushed about as far as a team can go without winning, like into overtime.  If Cal Poly could just make an extra point, any of three actually, this game would have been a Loss for the Badgers. 

Cal Poly outrushed the Badgers 276 yards to 184 yards.  Wow.  Cal Poly came into the game with a great rushing attack but against the Badgers?  They showed why their rushing game has been so successul today.  Their quarterback ran for 118 yards on 23 carries and their main running back gained 81 yards on 15 carries.

Luckily, Wisconsin's Sherer had some good success throwing the ball, getting 245 yards out of 13 completions.  Wisconsin had two turnovers that helped keep Cal Poly in the game.

The Mustangs actually dominated both the first downs (23 to 17) and the time of possession (all but 40 minutes to just over 20 minutes).  How odd is that for a game against Wisconsin in Wisconsin?  Wisconsin did hold the edge in total yardage gained though and, other than the two turnovers, they played a fairly mistake-free game, only getting two five yard penalties.  Cal Poly only had 1 five-yard penalty so both teams played cleanly.

This game pushes Wisconsin's record to 7and 5, which gives them a better shot at a decent bowl game.  Hopefully it will give them an idea of some things to work on too between now and whatever bowl game it is that they play in this year.                      

Iowa (7-4) @ Minnesota (7-4):

Now this game could be a last second thriller.  Both teams are 7-4 with Iowa holding the edge over Minnesota in the big ten, 4-3 versus 3-4 for Minnesota.  Both teams are playing for the possibility of receiving an invitation to a very good bowl date.

Minnesota has had more success through the air offensively than they have on the ground for the most part.  Iowa's defense is much tougher against the run than they are the pass.  This would seem to favor Minnesota.

Iowa likes to run the ball.  Who wouldn't with Greene in their backfield?  Minnesota just is not overly impressive defensively against either the run or the pass.  That would seem to favor Iowa.

If Minnesota can load up against the run they could make things a bit more difficult for Greene.  He will get his 100 yard game again even if Minnesota plays with eleven in the box, but he might not run for 200 again this week if Minnesota loads up the line of scrimmage.

I think that the most telling stat in this game is the fact that Iowa thus far this year is 1-3 away from Kinnick Stadium.  First, they have only played four games away from home and secondly, their only road win was against Indiana.  We cannot forget that Iowa has been in every game they have played this year though, home or away.  This is a team that could easily be 9-2 on the season and maybe even better.

Minnesota has lost two home games this year and those were their last two, against Northwestern and Michigan.  Iowa also lost to Northwestern at home.  

Iowa did not look particularly impressive last weekend, which might have been understandable, but Minnesota hasn't looked impressive for several weeks now, losing their last three games.   

If Minnesota were back to playing like they were earlier in the season I would think that these teams were evenly matched.  This game is difficult to call, between Minnesota's losing streak and Iowa's troubles on the road.  I believe though that Iowa's physical nature will win out in the long run.    

The envelope says:  Iowa 20 - Minnesota 17. 

What actually happened:  Iowa 55 - Minnesota 0.

Well, here we are back to the theme for the day - domination.  This game just finished up so I will gladly announce that I am 5 and 0 for this week's picks.  Yep, that just broke my cherry on picking at least all of the winners right.  Of course I could not have been further off on my prediction of the score for this game.  Again, we all knew that Iowa has a great defense but who would have really thought that an Iowa team that had previously lost 3 of their 4 road games this year would have gone Into Minneapolis and come away with a score anything near this?  Well, ok, I'm sure that IHawk was hoping, but I doubt that he ever thought it would be anything quite like this.

Pure ownage from start to finish.  The First downs were 26 to 6, 3rd down efficiency was 71% to 21 %, rushing yards were 227 to 7, passing yards were 261 to 127 and total yards were 488 to 134.  134 total yards??  Holy smokes Iowa, what were you trying to do here?  Minnesota trumped that performance by also giving up three turnovers.  In this game though I don't believe that the turnovers would have made much of a difference.

Tell you what this game does more than anything else.  It tells Iowa's bowl opponent that they are going to have a difficult time deailing with this defense and they better spend a lot of time worrying about both Greene and Stanzi because, as good as Greene is, this Iowa offense is not one-dimensional.

Unfortunately it also tells Minnesota's bowl opponent that Minnesota's record might not be a true reflection on the type of team that will present itself on game day.  Yes, I know that Minnesota has a lot of guys out right now.  Many of those people are key ingredients in what went into making this a successful year for Minnesota.  To be this thoroughly dominated though simply does not bode well for you going into your bowl game.

I truly hope that Iowa has a shot at a New Year's Day bowl.  A statement like this should certainly make their case for them.                            

Now for my game of the week.                                             Michigan State (9-2) @ Penn State (10-1):

Michigan State is having their best season in years and they are coming off a bye week.  Penn State is coming off an OK performance last week but it was against Indiana so it might be difficult to tell just what kind of performance the Lions really had.  

Michigan State as a team is not great at a lot, with the exception of running Ringer successfully most of the time.  Ringer has gained over 1500 yards on the season.  Michigan State offensively, other than Ringer is somewhat mediocre.  Defensively Michigan State holds most teams down to a reasonable number on points scored, with the exception of Ohio State of course and they play well against the pass.  Not real well, but well enough to keep them out of trouble for the most part.

It might be easy to say that Michigan State is a one-dimensional team but you just cannot forget about Hoyer quarterbacking the Spartans.  Hoyer has passed for over 2,000 yards this season and he spreads those yards out evenly between three receivers.

Statistically, Penn State should dominate this game.  They are ranked much better on both sides of the ball.  You know what that means though, right?  Not a whole lot.  Unfortunately, Penn State goes as their heads go.  If Penn State is mentally ready to play, they can play well against anyone in the country.  If they are just not ready to go they can look bad against just about anyone in the country.  

Penn State has not gotten over their loss to Iowa yet.  I said last week that the Lions needed to heal during their game against Indiana.  Well, the Lion defense was ready to go but their offense shot themselves in the foot more often than not.  That is totally a between the ears sort of problem.  I also stated that Penn State had to come out and play a dominant game last week to have any chance of beating Michigan State this week.  There was simply nothing dominant about the Penn State offense last week, at least not early.

Understand that I think Penn State will come out and be more prepared for Michigan State this week than they were for Indiana last week.  I still believe that they start slowly though and maybe even fall behind early, as has happened too frequently this year.  I'm looking for a first quarter score of 14 - 7 Michigan State.  I wouldn't be surprised if the teams go into half time tied at 21.

I would be very surprised then if Penn State does not come out and dominate during the second half of this game.  They have dominated just about every second half this year with the exception of the Iowa game.  

And the envelope says:  Penn State 42 - Michigan State 21

What really happened:  Penn State 49 - Michigan State 18.

I wasn't too far off on the score for this one.  I had an inkling, and a little inside information, that the Penn State offense would be back to it's normal self this week.  Darryl Clark was a world-beater today.  He played an excellent game against a very good football team.  I would like to say that this game was a very dominant performance for Penn State but that would not be 100 % correct.  

Michigan State had more first downs than Penn State, 23 to 19.  Michigan State also gained 173 yards on kickoff returns compared to Penn State's 54 yards.  The time of possession was almost even, as were the penalty yards. 

After that though, Penn State pretty much dominated.  Penn State gained 557 total yards to Michigan State's 332.  Penn State averaged 8.4 yards per play to Michigan State's 4.4 yards.  3rd down efficiency was 76% to 25 % in favor of Penn State and, the biggest stat of the game was that Penn State held Michigan State to 35 net yards rushing.  I fully expected Ringer to gain a lot more yards than he did.  Ringer gained 42 yards on 17 carries.  Understand though that Ringer did not get the touches that he normally does due to the fact that MSU was playing catch up for a good portion of the game.

A second huge stat was that Penn State had no turnovers while Michigan State had two interceptions, one of which really hurt them in the first half leading to a quick touchdown for Penn State.

I have to tell you, I was at this game and, even though it felt like it was zero degrees out there, being there today was really great.  Did you see me there?  I was the one wearing all white.  Seriously, this was a very important win for Penn State, securing their second Big Ten Championship (although shared with Ohio State again) in the last 3 years.  That's not too bad for the new kid on the block with an 81 year old coach.  Of course this game did tend to serve notice on either USC or Oregon State.  It told USC that, if they wind up going to the Rose Bowl they are not in for a cakewalk.  It told Oregon State that we got a lot more abuse here for you.

Michigan State fans, SparT, do not despair.  You have a very talented team there.  I had not given your linebackers the credit that they deserve before this game.  Your linebackers can move and hit people.  Your offense is good with Hoyer and Ringer supplying a one-two punch and I was impressed with your coach today, at least right up until the last minute when he called two time-outs in a row just to make me sit for another couple minutes in what felt like sub zero weather.  WTF was that about anyway?  SparT, are you really Dantonio?  Did you just do this to me to get back at me?  

I cerainly hope that he wasn't too critical of Penn State's throwing for one last touchdown with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  I mean you guys got your first touchdown with 22 seconds left in the first half and your second touchdown with 1:09 left in the game.  If you guys play until the end I see no reason to be upset about the other guys playing to the end.  Besides that you have shown that you have a propensity for coming back from behind.                  

Well folks, those are my fearless predictions for this week in Big Ten Football.  I will have links posted here for two other Big Ten blogs, one by Seabass and one by IHawk.  Seabass is the original Ohio State homer and of course IHawk sort of likes Iowa a little.  Don't ask me why though........

Their blogs certainly offer a different perspective and, most likely, different picks.  Their links will be right here as soon as those guys get their picks up.

 

Follow this link to go to the Seabass blog.

Follow this link to go to IHawk's blog.  Those are his weekly predictions.  IHawk also puts up a first look that offers some analysis not seen here.  That post is here:  IHawk's 1st look         

I plan on coming out with a quick look at the bowl games once the match-ups are announced.  I will also have my picks for all of the Big Ten bowl games out a few days before the first bowl game.  Until then, see you on the blogs.