Big Ten picks - Crunch time  

Well, here we are entering week 11 of the College Football season and the BCS standings are still about clear as mud.  I'm not going to jump and shout at this point because Texas Tech jumped from 7 to 2 in the BCS rankings after beating Texas with a last second touchdown at home.  I don't think it is right of course but, if they didn't jump PSU this weekend after beating Texas they would have over the next two weeks if they beat both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma anyway.  

I mean Oklahoma has beaten TCU (who hasn't beaten anyone) so they certainly deserve to be ranked in the top 5.  Oklahoma State has beaten Missouri (who hasn't beaten anyone except Illinois) so they certainly deserve to be in the top 10, right?  

While we are at it, we might as well look at Alabama too.  They beat an overrated Georgia team so they must be number 1.   

Oh well.  Hopefully there is enough football left to be played to help the pollsters see the error of their ways in ranking teams based on conference strength perceptions. 

The Big Ten on the other hand continues to pummel each other resulting in some surprises yesterday.  Michigan State was in a scrap yesterday and almost blew it, Northwestern and Minnesota played a classic, Purdue impressed, Indiana didn't quite get the paperwork finished and Iowa didn't quite hold Illinois' Juice down enough.  

I say it is crunch time because the Big Ten has 5 teams bowl eligible with 7 wins or more.  Two additional teams, Iowa and Illinois are looking to become Bowl eligible this week.  

I don't look for quite so many surprises this week, or, at least I hope there aren't many surprises.  What follows are my fearless prognostications for the upcoming Big Ten football weekend. 

 

Illinois at Western Michigan:  

Here we go again playing a 7 and 2 MAC team.  Illinois is at 5 and 4 on the year thus far and they have been a hit and miss team all year.  They played Missouri tuff and they gave Penn State all the Lions wanted too in happy Valley.  They lost a couple close games to Minnesota and Wisconsin and then they come out and beat Iowa in a close game.  

Illinois has the tools and a great quarterback.  Their defense does a respectable job for the most part and they have truly been in every game they have played this year.  

The long and the short of it is that a 5 and 4 Big ten team should beat a 7 and 2 MAC team.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Illinois had a big game against Iowa and I think they want to get bowl eligible this week.  

Illinois 21 - Western Michigan 17.

How it turned out - Western Michigan 23 - Illionois 17. 

Close on the score but I had the teams backwards.  Two interceptions in the second quarter just killed Illinois.  They beat Western Michigan in yards per play, passing yards and rushing yards.  Illionois could not convert a 3rd down to save themselves.  This was a very disappointing performance.  What is it with these pidly MAC teams?  Does every Big 10 team just go to sleep when playing against a MAC team?  A bit too late to wake up now.  Illionois now faces a real uphill climb trying to become bowl eligible.  They play Ohio State next week and norwestern the following week.  Even going 6 and 6 for the year is going to be a challenge for this illionois squad. 

 

Wisconsin @ Indiana:  

Indiana is not real good this year but, with that said, they have only suffered two blow-out losses all year, one to Iowa and the other to Illinois.  Ok, Ball State clipped them 42-20 but Indiana was within 4 first downs and 60 yards of what they allowed Ball State so I don't consider that a blow out.  Indiana has had a couple good weekends too, beating Northwestern a couple weeks ago and playing Central Michigan tough yesterday.   

Wisconsin is a big, strong physical team that has talent.  I think they may have had a bit of a mental let-down in mid-season after the Michigan loss and then losing a close one to the buckeyes.  They just weren't the same team when Penn State played them.  Just when they start getting back on track with a win against Illinois they get Michigan State and they lose a heartbreaker.  

Wisconsin should be a lock for this game but if they go into the same funk they experienced earlier in the year after yesterday's heartbreaker, Indiana could pull off the quick upset.  I don't think that will happen though:  

Wisconsin 37 - Indiana 10. 

How it turned out:  Wisconsin 55 - Indiana 20.

Wisconsin came out swinging in this one and Indiana wound up swinging in the breeze.  Wisconsin racked up 601 yards in this game, including 441 yards rushing.  I would call it a contest but it really wasn't, at least not in the second half.  The first half was close, with the teams hitting the locker room at a 14 - 13 score.  The second half was all Badgers.  The Badgers lost 3 fumbles inside their own 40 yard line in the first half which is what kept it close during that stanza.  The second half was all Wisconsin.  Both teams ended with a couple of banged-up players.  I hope that all will be back with no lasting ill effects.          

 

Michigan at Minnesota: 

At 2 and 7 Michigan is about as down and out as a team can be.  They just locked up their first losing season in like forever yesterday with their loss at Purdue.  Everyone that is any good at all has beaten the Wolverines this year except Illinois.  I take no pleasure in making that statement by the way as I do respect the Michigan program.  Regardless of respect however they are running into another good team this weekend.  

Minnesota is going bowling again this year and they have a solid team.  They lost at the horseshoe and they lost at home against Northwestern just yesterday.  That game yesterday was a real battle and a tuff loss for Minnesota.  They need to re-group this week and get back to their game.  If they can focus on the task at hand this game will be physical but it will be a win for Minnesota.  

Minnesota 28 - Michigan 21. 

How it turned out:  Michigan 29 - Minnesota 6. 

Minnesota really surprised me in this game.  I had it all wrong.  I had known that Michigan was capable of putting up some points and playing some good defense but I was not aware of the fact that they could keep it up for an entire game.  I believe that Michigan might have just proved something to themselves.  They may have also just served notice to the Buckeyes that they will not go down without a fight.  Michigan gained a total of 435 yards in this game while Minnesota only rang up 188.  Michigan's yards were evenly split also with 232 coming on the ground and 202 coming through the air.  This wasn't a game decided by turn-overs either.  Each team had only one.  Michigan just played solid on both sides of the ball and i think they surprised the gophers.  One indication of just how this game can be characterized is that Minnesota only had one first down in the first half.  they had only eight first downs for the entire game.  It is difficult to beat anyone that way.  Props go out to Michigan.  Their team showed that they had some heart an they played consistently well throughout the game.   

 

Purdue at Michigan State:  

Purdue has been all over the place this year, they lost in an overtime game to Oregon, they looked terrible against Notre Dame but they looked decent in the following losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Northwestern and Minnesota.  Yesterday they beat Michigan in a close game.  I think Purdue is just a couple pieces short of having a real nice team.  I don't think their coaches have them inspired either, but that is another story altogether.  

Michigan State started the year with a loss against Cal. in a game that they should have won.  They did get blown out against Ohio State at home and they won a real slobber-knocker yesterday at home against Wisconsin.  They catch Purdue at home this week as well but I believe their results this week will leave little question as to which team is better.  Michigan State will play this game in an effort to convince themselves that they belong in the upper confines of the Big Ten.  Look for them to prove a point against Purdue. 

Michigan State 38 - Purdue 14.

How it turned out:  Michigan State 21 - Purdue 7.

This game was turn-over riddled and, even though Michigan State came out the winner as predicted, with their four turn-overs they did not amass the score that I was anticipating.  Michigan State sets themselves up well for a possible share of the Big Ten Championship and Purdue is offivially eliminated from bowl contention.  Ringer ran for just short of his per-game average with 121 yards.  Hoyer was serviceable as his arm accounted for an additional 154 yards.  Michigan State's defense gave up a total of 191 yards.  Now Michigan State gets a week off before coming to Happy Valley to make their case for a share of the Big Ten crown.         

 

Ohio State at Northwestern:  

This game has the potential to be a lot of fun.  Both teams are at 7 and 2 for the year.  I think that Ohio State certainly has more talent than Northwestern but sometimes the Buckeyes do not play the offensive scheme that allows that talent to shine.  Northwestern plays solid defense and their offense is capable of scoring against anyone. 

Northwestern started the season strong before losing a battle with Michigan State and then following that up by losing to Indiana.  What's up with the Indiana loss guys?  Tell you what's up with that is they lost their focus.  They saw the more difficult portion of their schedule upcoming and they weren't even thinking about Indiana.  Well guys, now you are into the tuff part of your season and you better be ready or this game will get out of hand quick, fast and in a hurry.  

Ohio State is coming off a tough loss to Penn State two weeks ago that really could have gone either way.  It was an emotional game for all involved, not the least of which was young Terrell Pryor who is probably blaming himself for the loss.  That isn't the case though Mr. Pryor - your days will come.  I think that Ohio State used their bye week to get over their set back and I doubt you will notice any ill effects.  In fact I think that Pryor will re-double his efforts and, with Beanie Wells, who should be 100 percent by now, will carry the Buckeye's offense to an impressive win.  In fact I think that Pryor will gain at least 75 yards on the ground this week in an effort to show that he will not fumble the ball under any circumstances. 

Ohio State 28 - Northwestern 17.

How it turned out:  Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 10.

Ohio State made a big statement in this game.  No, the staement wasn't that they could blow out Northwestern, nor that beanie Wells is back to full strength or that Terrelle Pryor is going to be great.  All of that is true of course but Ohio State seemed to have turned the corner regarding their play selection.  A fake punt?  Scoring with  7 seconds left in the game?  Wow, is this really Ohio State?  Jim Tressel's team?  For those of you that might feel that the late scores amounted to poor sportsmanship, I would beg to disagree.  The fake punt led to a score, no doubt but with 7 plus minutes left on the clock the game isn't over yet.  The play at the end of the game involved a run by Herron who had 38 yards in 6 carries for the game.  He happened to get 16 of them on that run.  Ohio State did benefit from an interception and two recovered fumbles in this game and they outgained Northwestern by just under 150 yards total.  The game was not close but it was not a beat-down.              

 

Penn State at Iowa: 

This is my game of the week.  In fact, I'll just say it now.  My game of the week every week is going to be Penn State against whomever.  They might even be in my game of the week next year on their bye week - who knows.  Yeah, I'm a homer.  

Anyway, Iowa has a good team.  They have a great running back in Shonn Greene and their defense is capable of shutting down a good offense.  I don't know what they were thinking though losing to Pittsburgh 21-20 and Illinois 27-24.  I can understand the losses to Northwestern and Michigan State for the reasons set forth above.  Here is a 5 and 4 team though that lost their four games by a total of 12 points.  That must be difficult to fathom for the Hawkeyes.  They have been in every game all year and they play a rough and tumble brand of football that is fun to watch.  

Iowa's offense averages over 29 points per game and their defense is ranked 8th in the nation allowing only 13.2 points per game.  If Penn State thinks for one second that this isn't going to be a tough, physical game then the Lions will soon learn the error of their ways.  

Penn State is also coming off a bye week after the Ohio State game.  Joe Pa has been working the team hard in preparation for this game.  Another advantage is that Penn State's next opponent (Indiana) is not a team that is apt to require a lot of early attention so Penn State should be focused solely on the Iowa game.  I have to say also that the BCS ranking should inspire Penn State. In fact I truly hope that the rankings piss off the team so much that Joe Pa couldn't hold them back if he wanted to.  

Penn State is ranked 9th on offense, averaging almost 42 points per game and 4th on defense, allowing 11.1 points per game.  Of course those stats were put together mainly by having a soft out of conference schedule in the early part of the year, including Oregon State of course.  Penn State does not always play well away from home.  They looked good in Wisconsin but they were not overly impressive either at Purdue or in Columbus.  The Syracuse game doesn't say anything - they are Orangemen after all and how fast can an orange run?  

It seems that everyone watched the Penn State / Ohio State game and now they are saying that Penn State has no offense.  Well, their offense did not look impressive in that game so that criticism might be deserved.  I hope that Penn State looks to the Iowa game to prove otherwise. 

If Penn State comes out fired up and wanting to make this a statement game then I think Iowa could be hurting by the end of this one.  If Penn State comes out though trying to play a vintage Joe Pa ball control offense and basically playing not to lose, then they can lose this one.  I think though that, between the polls seemingly snubbing Penn State and the player's commitment to reaching the National Championship game, Penn State comes out ready to take this one from the Hawkeyes.  I have so much confidence in this point assignment that I would probably be willing bet any one of you a whole penny that it comes out this way. 

Penn State 41 - Iowa 17.

How it turned out:  Iowa 24 - Penn State 23.

Well, what can I say about this game but that both teams got pretty much what they deserved.  While I am bitterly disappointed with the performance of the Nittany Lions, I was impressed by Iowa's play on both sides of the ball.  This was a game of two totally separate and distinct halves of football.  Other than a first series blunder by Penn State's Darryl Clark and the resulting short drive score for Iowa, Penn State basically shut down the Hawkeyes during the first half.  After the first half Penn State had given up 66 yards to Iowa, which included 25 yards given up to Shonn Greene during the first minute and a half of the game.  Additionally, Penn State had three sustained drives in the first half.  Two of those drives were turned away and led to field goals though by a stout iowa defense.  In fact I think that i can say that Iowa's defense looked damned good turning away those drives working the bend but don't break phiosophy perfectly. 

In the second half though Iowa was the team that put together sustained drives.  Shonn Greene found his way to amassing 117 yards on the game to give him his tenth game in a row eclipsing the 100 yard mark.  Stanzi had a very good game, completing 15 of 25 passes for 175 yards with one TD and a pic.  On the other hand, Penn State's offense had trouble getting on track.  With the wind between 20 and 30 MPH, Darryl Clark was not having the success that Stanzi enjoyed.  It doesn't help either when your safeties blow pass coverage on a receiver for an easy score and then top that performance off by gathering an interference penalty on a 3rd and ten to sustain an Iowa drive for them.  That is why they play the game though.  

It occurs to me that Darryl Clark has been looking progressively worse over the last few games for the Lions.  Yes, i understand that those games have been against teams that have very strong defenses.   Against Iowa, Clark was 9 of 23 for 86 yards, no touchdowns and a big pic that killed a late drive.  He also had a fumble on the third play from scrimmage that probably should have been a safety and resulted in iowa getting their first possession at Penn State's 25 yard line.  Against Ohio State Darryl was 12 for 20 for 120 yards. 

He is there because he had been making good decisions, he was being careful with the ball and he has the ability to run the ball well either scrambling or on a planned quarterback draw.  We didn't see much running by Clark though during the Iowa game.  I would imagine that the coaches were trying to protect him after he got dinged up during the Ohio State game.  The commentators even mentioned that Clark was throwing everything high going into the wind during warm-ups.  You would think that someone else on the field might have noticed the same thing and maybe either leaned more toward the running game, which was working, or maybe even pulled Clark in favor of Devlin after it was obvious that Darryl was having problems with the wind in the first quarter.  Just for the record, Penn State gained 180 yards on the ground to Iowa's 101 yards.  Don't get me wrong.  Clark is a good quarterback.  I wouldn't want to damage his psyche by pulling him either.  Then again, if Devlin wasn't having the problems with his passes sailing on him, which does more damage, to have a bad game or to sit out a game for the benefit of the team?

I do not want to take anything away from Iowa with the above paragraph.  They played a great game and they deserved the win.  Both teams had two turn-overs and were hurt and helped equally by them.  I do believe though that the Penn State coaches really went out of their way to protect Clark, with Williams taking several snaps from center.  Overall they did fairly well with the gadget plays, especially early.  I am saying though that the best pass I saw coming from a player wearing white yesterday came from Williams as opposed to Clark.  I am also saying that Penn State really has their work cut out for them if they want to get back on track before the Michigan State game.                                  

Please check out these other Big Ten Blogs.  They offer differing views and analysis and they always put up some great picks.

Seabass has a blog here:  Seabass

And IHawk-08's blog is here:  IHawk