Well, here we are yet again, another bowl season and yet again we find the vast majority of Big Ten teams heading to the bowl games.  This year the Big Ten is sending not one, but two teams the BCS bowls.  Of course the Big 12 and the SEC are also sending multiple teams each to the BCS games also. 

 

Let's get this party started by looking at the bowl games that really count this year, the games in which Big Ten programs are playing.  The National Championship game is nice and all and it should even be entertaining.  Just seeing Oklahoma play against a team that does have a defense will be interesting actually.  Other than that though, does anyone here really want to watch Alabama whoop up on Utah?  How about watching Tulsa and Ball State tangling, or dancing, or whatever it is they do?  Texas tech v. ole Miss will be a blow-out and Va. Tech and Cincinnati?  I mean does anyone except the players from those two schools really care?  I know, some do care and I understand that.  

 

No sports fans, the games that will be much more interesting to watch will be the games in which there is a Big Ten representative playing.

 

Here is a quick breakdown: 

01/05 - Texas v. Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl - the line is Texas -10.5  01/01 - USC v. Penn State in the Rose Bowl - the line is USC -10.5 

01/01 - Georgia v. Michigan State in the Cap. 1 bowl - the line is Ga. -7 

01/01 - S. Carolina v. Iowa in the Outback  - the line is Iowa -3 1/2   

12/31 - Kansas v. Minnesota in the insight Bowl - the line is Kansas-10

12/29 - Missouri v. N. W. in the Alamo Bowl - the line is Missouri -13.5 

12/27 - Florida St. v. Wisconsin in the Champ Sports bowl - the line is FSU -5  

 

It should be noted that all Big Ten teams are considered away teams for the bowl games.  

 

I point out the lines to show that only one Big Ten team is favored this bowl season.  In the games in which we have ranked teams involved, the Big Ten team is ranked lower than each of their opposing teams, at least in the BCS rankings. 

 

This tells us that the Big Ten teams are picked to lose 6 of their 7 games this bowl season, and, according to the professionals in the business, the Big Ten teams are heavy to fairly heavy underdogs in all but one of their games.  

 

I submit however that the odds-makers may be drinking just a bit too much of the SEC and Big 12 cool-aid this year though and the intent of this article is to explain to you why I believe this to be the case.  Thus comes the long of it:

For one thing, because the Big Ten is sending some quality teams into games in which they are heavy underdogs, the Big Ten teams just have more reason to to be competitive.  I actually believe that several of the favored teams will be of the opinion that all they really have to do is show up to win their games against their Big Ten opponents, especially the teams playing in the first two games reviewed below:   

 

Texas v. Ohio State:  

 

We will start at the top, with the Texas, Ohio State Fiesta Bowl.  Texas certainly deserves to be at the Fiesta Bowl, if not in the National Championship game.  Remember they did beat Oklahoma and, if not for a last minute touchdown scored by Texas Tech, the Longhorns would be in the NC game.  Texas should be heavily favored against any two-loss team, and they are.  

 

Of course we have to look at the two losses that Ohio State had also before we reach any foregone conclusions.  Ohio State got beat badly at USC early in the year when Ohio State was without their star running back and before Mr. Pryor was playing consistently.  Can two people make a difference?  I don't know the answer to that one for sure but I can tell you that with both Pryor and Wells in the offensive backfield Ohio State is a different team. 

 

In looking at the Penn State - Ohio State game, both teams played that game so close to the vest that it simply came down to who made a mistake first.  Unfortunately for Ohio State, the freshmen quarterback, the aforementioned Terrelle Pryor, made that mistake and Penn State capitalized for the win.  

 

Ohio State and Mr. Sweater-vest knows that they cannot play this bowl game close to the vest and expect to compete for any length of time against Texas.  Texas has the offensive weapons that will score, sooner if not later.  This Ohio State team though is not the same team that played either USC or Penn State.  Pryor will have twice as much playing time and experience as he had when he played against Penn State and Wells will be 100 %.  That will provide Ohio State with a running attack and the running threat on every down.  

 

Both Ohio State and Texas have had very good seasons against some good opponents.  In fact the opponents of both teams sport an impressive 69 percent winning percentage.  Both teams played against numerous bowl teams this year.  

 

After meandering their way through their respective schedules, the Ohio State defense ranks 9th in the nation in points allowed, 19th in total yards allowed per game and 25th in passing yards allowed.  Conversely, Texas ranks 24th in total points allowed but 5th against the rush and 229th against the passing game. 

 

The difference in this game will be the play of Terrelle Pryor.  Pryor has to put some zip on the ball when he throws it.  It seems that Pryor throws his passes with a bit too much touch sometimes, lobbing it even on the long throws.  As little respect as the Texas defensive backfield might deserve this year, their backers are quick.  If Pryor lobs the ball he could have a couple picked off.  If Pryor comes out moving the ball through the air effectively they can use a successful passing attack to loosen up the Texas linebackers.  If Coach Tressel somehow misses the stats though regarding the Texas run defense and thinks he is going to have Beanie Wells rush 40 times this game it could get ugly.

 

I do know however that Jim Tressel is nobody's dummy.  He has known for a couple weeks now that the Texas defense thinks run first and then gets over everything they give up through the air.  This is Pryor's opportunity to shine and this young man wants to impress everyone more than anything else in the world.  Pryor is still very young and he will make mistakes.  Pryor will be the difference-maker in this game, without a doubt.  If Pryor is on and makes very few mistakes, Texas, and the rest of the college football world for that matter, could be in for a very abrupt surprise. 

Additionally, one must consider the fact that Texas believes they were screwed out of the shot at the NC, and many fans join them in that thinking.  The Texas players know the point spread and I am sure that they feel that they only have to show up to win this game convincinlgy.  I just do not believe that is going to happen though.

 

Pryor is the wild card in this game.  If he passes accurately and runs decidedly when he has the opening, Ohio State just might pull off the shocker and knock the Big 12 down a few rungs on the conference ladder.  Besides that, they aren't playing against an SEC team so Ohio State should be good to go.  I have faith in young Mr. Pryor.  It is time for Ohio State to shine!!!

 

My Fearless prediction - Texas 24 Ohio State 27. 

 

 

USC v. Penn State:  

 

Again we see a Big Ten team at 10.5 point underdogs.  I had been laughing the last few weeks of the regular season listening to the so-called professionals saying on air words to the effect of "Who really wants to play USC at this point in the season?" 

 

I can answer that question.  Penn State wants USC and they have wanted USC since the Nits clobbered Oregon State.  The worst thing that could have happened to Penn State was Oregon State beating USC.  Luckily, Oregon came through for us and beat Oregon State at the end of the regular season, sending USC to the Rose Bowl. 

 

Playing Oregon State again in the Rose bowl could have only been a lose/lose situation for Penn State.  The best thing that could have happened is that Penn State trounced Oregon State again and then everybody just says that yes, Penn State is still better than Oregon State.  If the game is close or, if (heaven forbid) Oregon State would have pulled off the upset, then Penn State would have lost any ground that the Big Ten might have made up this past year. 

 

Playing against USC however provides Penn State with the opportunity to be in a win/win situation while USC is in a lose/lose situation.  If Penn State wins or even keeps the game respectably close, then Penn State wins some respect for both themselves and the Big Ten while USC loses a bit because all the pundits are saying how great this USC team is.  Even if USC blows Penn State out, the experts would simply indicate that they are not surprised and then go on with life.  

 

Don't get me wrong here, USC is a great team.  They had better be a great team actually, considering the fact that they have been getting twice as many 5 star recruits than any other College Football program over the course of the last five plus years.  My wife, who doesn't know one end of the football from the other would have easily been able to put together unbeaten seasons back to back to back with this group kids if she had just told the players to go out and do what they want to do.  In fact how Pete Carroll can justify losing even one game every year to any other team simply amazes me, but his team has proven to be fairly adept at losing games they aren't supposed to lose.  

 

USC is now the one however that is, to some extent, in a lose/lose situation.  Because USC is so well liked by the oundits, If Penn State comes out and keeps the game close or pulls off the "upset", then everyone says what a down year the PAC 10 had and how the entire conference really sucks, which is actually true of course for the most part this past year with the notable exception of USC.  Even if USC were to win convincingly they do not win many points or make a case for "We should have been in the NC game" by beating Penn State because the perception is that Penn State is nothing special.  I personally like it that way. 

 

What we really have here is a Penn State team that has, by many measures, over-achieved this year.  Everyone knew their offensive line would be very good and their core receivers were excellent coming into the year, but the quarterback, running back, defensive line and linebackers were a question mark for those that knew this team.  Penn State lost three defensive linemen from last year, two All American Linebackers, a very good quarterback and running back.  What's more is their defense was not only untested, but very young with the exception of the defensive backfield. 

 

Both teams have a multitude of weapons on offense.  The defenses of these two clubs though are both outstanding, with the USC defense proving to be exceptionally strong.  Both defenses have basically shut everyone down with one or two exceptions.  Of course we must look to the schedules to see who each team has actually shut down. 

 

These two teams have played throughout their schedule with strikingly similar results.  Penn State has played against teams that are currently sporting a 71 and 72 overall record.  It is actually pretty bad to have a schedule that has posted an overall losing record, even if it is by a very slight margin.  USC's opponents have gone 70 and 76 this year, which is even worse of course.  Penn State has played against 6 teams with a winning record and USC has played against 5 teams with a winning record plus Notre Dame, who finished their regular season going 6 and 6. 

 

Their respective rankings are as follows: 

                          Penn State                              USC 

                 Offense        Defense          Offense         Defense 

Points/gm    12th                 5th                16th                1st 

Yards/gm      24                  12th               23rd                1st 

Rushing/gm 29th                22nd              32nd              10th 

Passinggm  67th                34th               53rd               3rd 

 

Now some might say that the Pac 10 is more of a passing conference, with most teams passing a majority of their plays.   Others might say that a more balanced attack, similar to what most offenses in the Big 10 run, is much more difficult to defend against.  On the other hand, the Pac 10 does have its share of quality running backs.  Most of them play for USC of course, but they are in the Pac 10 nonetheless.  

 

Others might say that most of USC's opponents were far enough behind early on that the only choice they had was to pass consistently, abandoning the running game and doing things like going for the first down on a 4th and 5 regularly, hence the good defensive numbers.  Plus of course it is always much easier to defend against the pass when you have a real good idea that 75 percent or more of the opponents plays will be passes. 

 

I tend to believe however that the USC defense is for real.  They played some quality opponents and their defensive speed is out of this world.  Of course, other than Ohio State, USC has not faced a team that plays a real physical style of football on the lines.  USC plays a lot of fast teams and a few teams that they play have physical linemen, but those team's stock and trade is not their physical nature on the lines for the most part.  On the other hand, Penn State does not play many teams that have real good team speed.  Again, a few teams they have played have good speed, but speed has not generally been the stock and trade of the Big 10 for the most part. 

 

I am not going to go into detail relative the similar opponent comparison.  Most people are well aware of the fact that both of these teams played against Ohio State and Oregon State with differing results.  I personally do not believe that the performance of any team that has to travel up to 3,000 miles is a very good indicator of their true abilities.  Suffice it say that both Oregon State and Ohio State got trounced pretty good when traveling to Penn State and USC respectively while Oregon State beat USC in Oregon and Penn State squeaked by Ohio State in the Horseshoe.  I am just not convinced that this comparison is a reliable indicator of future performance.  All teams involved can simply take a Mulligan on the dates of their respective losses or call it an off day and that may well be true. 

 

This game comes down to two major factors.  For USC, they are back in the Rose Bowl again against a Big Ten team - ho hum.  USC could well believe that they deserve to be playing in a better bowl game, maybe even in the National Championship game.  After all, the pundits generally agree that USC and Texas are the best teams not playing in the National Championship game.  The only team to beat USC has been flirting with being nationally ranked and USC lost that one on the road.  Florida lost a home game to Mississippi and, even though Mississippi has worked themselves into the national rankings, I would think that losing a home game would hurt more than losing an away game.  That is just my opinion of course but I do believe that if you can make a case for Florida or Texas, then one should also be able to make a case for either USC and Penn State.

 

I can only imagine that USC will be a little complacent and over confident going into this game.  USC, if you need any help in this area, refer to the 1986 National Championship game, when Miami was reportedly good enough to beat several NFL teams.  Penn State is not doing over confident this year.  They normally do not engage in the overconfidence thing by the way, even when they can be.  It is an attitude and coaching thing that those on the left coast just wouldn't understand. 

 

This game for Penn State all comes down to their attack.  Penn State's defense will be fine overall.  Yes, they will give up a few big plays to the USC offense.  I think that is a given.  Penn State's offensive game plan though will be the biggest key to this game.  Penn State can run the ball on the Trojans.  No, Penn State will not gain 200 yards on the ground, but they can be effective enough to keep USC guessing as to what is coming at them, which USC is not used to seeing.  

 

If Penn State comes out and keeps things opened up a bit, mixing in some good screen passes, play action and by hitting their tights ends regularly and with enthusiasm, then Penn State is in this game all the way.  If Penn State comes out though thinking that they are going to play this game like they played against Ohio State and Iowa, keeping everything close to their vest and just waiting for the other team to make a mistake, Penn State could get beat soundly.  

 

Personally, I am looking forward to a great game.  This one could be a real slobber-knocker and I think that both teams will learn quite a bit about the other.  Penn State is not going to be in awe of USC and that is something else that USC will not be used to.  Penn State has played as well or better on the road this year than at any time in the recent past.  That is all this is going to be - one more away game. 

 

I believe that Penn State might just really surprise the Trojans next week.  They will surprise them with a bit more speed than USC would normally expect from a Big Ten team and with the strength and tenacity to match their own.  Neither team is going to be intimidated.  Additionally, I believe that the fact that Penn State will not be intimidated will be a source of concern for USC.  In fact I look for USC to take a couple of unsportsmanlike penalties in this one, going just a bit too far in trying to intimidate the Nits. 

 

I think JoePa lets his team play and have some fun this year and I think they represent well.  I also think that this will be a defensive battle, a low-scoring affair that will most likely be decided in the closing minutes.  I also believe that USC is in for a very rude awakening.  I also believe that Penn State will win its fourth Bowl game in a row. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - USC 17. Penn State 20.   

 

Georgia v. Michigan State:  

 

In this game the Big Ten representative is a 7 point underdog to the SEC team. 

 

On the surface, Michigan State appears to have a one-dimensional offense.  That is actually true to some extent.  Javon Ringer is an excellent running back and he has proven that just about every week during the regular season, rushing for almost 1600 yards in 12 games.  What most people overlook is the fact that the Spartans have amassed 2200 yards through the air this year also, which isn't too shabby. 

 

Georgia however has a very balanced offense, with Stafford throwing for over 3200 yards and Moreno rushing for over 1300 yards while averaging almost 6 yards per carry.  Moreno is a very good running back - one that you don't hear a lot about but he should be collecting some accolades.  

 

Ringer is a workhorse and a great back but his average is less than 4 yards per carry.  Of course Ringer did have a few days on which he was held basically in check, against Ohio State and Penn State mainly. 

 

Another thing that concerns me a bit in this game is the Michigan State quarterback Hoyer.  Hoyer is capable of being a very fine quarterback but he is also capable of making the big mistake. 

 

A win for the Spartans would be huge.  Beating an SEC team in a New Years day bowl would be huge.  Georgia has a lot of weapons though and I think this game will come down to how the defenses stack up.  The Michigan State defense has had its bright moments but in the big games, they just didn't show up.  MSU gave up 45 points at home to Ohio State and 49 points against Penn State in State College.  What's even worse is that they gave up 38 points against Cal in California.  As with all the Big Ten bowl games, this game is an away game for the Spartans. 

 

Let's go inside the numbers for a bit.  Both teams are 9 and 3, good for third in their respective conferences.  Curiously, both teams have played 6 teams with winning records, two teams with 6 and 6 records and 8 bowl teams.  That's pretty much where the comparison ends however. 

 

Michigan State's opponents have gone a combined 78 and 66 which isn't too dusty.  Georgia's opponents have however gone a combined 86 and 56.  I don't know if you chalk that up to Georgia playing in the SEC or if it might have something to do with the fact that Michigan State does not play FCS schools and the like as most other teams do.

 

Below are the team's respective rankings:   

                          Michigan State                         Georgia 

                    Offense      Defense            Offense           Defense 

Points/gm       111th           78th                 50th                132nd 

Yards/gm       131st           136th               32nd                  56th 

Rush/gm        136th           136th               103rd                 81st  

Pass/gm         113th          139th               26th                   81st 

 

Georgia obviously compares much better in their rankings and the teams they have played against have a better won-loss record.  Michigan State fans should start worrying right about now.  If they weren't already worried, let me add to it just a bit.  In your two Big Ten losses this year, Ringer had a combined total of 33 rushes for a total of 109 yards for a very pedestrian average of 3.3 yards per carry.  Additionally, you guys gave up 203 rushing yards to California.  Yes, that is the Pac 10 Cal.      

 

Not so fast.....   Georgia fans have a reason to be concerned too. Georgia came into the year as the pre-season concensus number 1 in the country.  They have wound up looking very less than impressive.  Georgia was less than impressive with their 14-7 win against South Carolina, they looked terrible in the first half of the Alabama game, they barely squeaked by Auburn (who was really pretty bad this year) and Georgia has not really had an impressive win all year.  The closest thing to impressive that Georgia has on their resume is the win against a very over-rated LSU team by the score of 52 to 38. 

 

The turnovers were the difference in the South Carolina game, with South Carolina gaining more yards, putting up more first downs, etc.  The same can be said about the LSU game in that LSU had better offensive numbers than Georgia had but the three turnovers that LSU suffered just killed them. Kentucky out-gained Georgia on the ground and had a better first down percentage but each team had two turnovers and Georgia won that game 42 to 38.  The Auburn game was played extremely evenly and that game ended up a win for Georgia by a score of 17-13.  That is just less than impressive.  Georgia is a team that could very easily be 8 and 4, 7 and 5 or even 6 and 6. 

 

On a positive note for MSU, they did not suffer their usual late-season let down, as they have the past few seasons.  For a while there it seemed that Michigan State would come out playing good ball and fade at the half-way mark.  Not so this year.  Michigan State has played consistently good ball from start to finish and they have beaten the teams they should have with the exception of Cal of course, their first game of the year.  

 

This game is really difficult to call.  Georgia has played better against better opponents but they have gotten lucky too.  Michigan State has played most of their schedule tuff but they have had two blow-out losses against good teams that they should have been able to at least hang with a bit more than they did.  Georgia has also been beaten soundly but that was against Florida and the first half of the Alabama game.  Yes, Georgia came back in the second half to make the game respectable but the game was not as close as the score might lead some to believe. 

 

Being a Big Ten homer, I lean toward giving the nod to the Spartans, although Georgia is clearly the better team overall.  I tend to believe however that this game will come down to attitudes.  These are two programs that went in two totally different directions this season.  Michigan State started the year with no love coming their way at all and Georgia was the pre-season # 1.  Since then, Michigan State has scratched and clawed their way into the 18th spot in the latest BCS rankings and Georgia has fallen to the 15th spot.  Michigan State needs a win to gain some respect and Georgia might just feel that their season was a wasted effort based on the respect that they have lost. 

 

When it all comes down to it, Michigan State has consistently proved that they can not defend a balanced attack and Georgia has that balanced attack.  The Michigan State offense is a bit too one-dimensional, which will allow Georgia to plug the running lanes and wait for Hoyer to beat them.  As much as I would like to think that is possible, I just don't think so.  I really hope I am wrong on this one. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - Georgia 41, Michigan State 21.    

 

South Carolina v. Iowa:  

 

Here we have the one and only game in which the Big Ten team is favored to win.  That is with good reason too although the point spread is not particularly impressive at 3 points. 

 

Neither team is ranked coming into this New Years Day bowl game, but Iowa is very close, just missing the cut coming in at 26.  Iowa is sporting an 8 and 4 record and a fifth place finish in the Big Ten while South Carolina comes into the game at 7 and 5 and tied with LSU for fifth place in the SEC.  

 

This game boasts two very good defenses.  I think the difference in this one comes down to Shonn Greene and the Iowa Offense though.  

 

Iowa has a hard-nosed defense but they also have an offense that can move the ball effectively.  Even against some very good defensive teams, Greene has enjoyed 100 plus yard rushing games.  South Carolina's defensive numbers look great but their offense has been less than impressive through the year.

 

We are going to go inside the numbers fairly quickly on this one because I just don't think there is that much to discuss in this game.  No, I'm not saying that Iowa will blow the Gamecocks out, but this should not really be as good a game as I had originally thought that it may be.  The more I look at Iowa the more I am convinced that they just could not catch a break this year, with the exception of the Penn State game of course.  Iowa has played everyone tuff, but, other than Penn State, they did not really get a whack at the usual Big Ten cream of the crop either.  

Iowa's opponents have a combined record of 79 and 66 and they have played against 7 teams with a winning record and 6 bowl teams.  Iowa has lost to three of those bowl teams.  It should be noted however that they lost those three games by a combined total of 9 points. 

 

South Carolina's opponents have a combined record of 85 and 60, which is deserving of some respect.  They have played against 7 teams with winning records and 7 bowl teams, but they have lost to five of those bowl teams by a combined margin of 88 points.  Of course 50 of those points came at the hands of Florida in a blow-out. 

 

The biggest difference between the schedules of these two teams is that Iowa has not been blown out by anyone, anywhere.  The same cannot be said about South Carolina although they really were only blown out by Florida in that one game.  The Clemson game was not a blow out loss for South Carolina, especially if you look at the box score or watched the game       

Respective rankings are as follows: 

                              Iowa                            South Carolina 

                  Offense       Defense           Offense    Defense 

Points/gm      63rd              11th                  177th         54th 

Yards/gm       95th              26th                  180th         25th 

Rush/gm        52nd             24th                  212th         78th 

Pass/gm        158th            95th                  100th        18th 

 

This is where the real difference comes in.  If Greene does not rush for 200 plus yards in this game I will be thinking that maybe he has the flu or something.  Iowa's rushing game should control the entire ebb and flow of the game.  Iowa should dominate time of possession and field position.  Understand that South Carolina will get some of its passing game in.  They will pass for a few big gainers and they will probably even score some points.  

 

This game boils down to Iowa's strengths in the ground game on offense and defensively against the rush.  I would be surprised if South Carolina rushes for more than 100 yards as a team.  South Carolina will pass for 200 yards in this game but Iowa has faced better passing games than what South Carolina can offer up and they have withstood the storm.  

 

Both teams have something to prove in this game because there is some sentiment that neither team belongs in this game.  I cannot agree though at least concerning Iowa.  They have played everyone tough, they have beaten a top ten program this year and they have showed well against every team they have played.  

 

South Carolina fans can take heart in the fact that Iowa's passing game is not the best.  Stanzi has been serviceable but not overly impressive.  Your defense too will provide a challenge for Iowa.  If Iowa makes even one or two mistakes this could be a very close game and your team speed could surprise Iowa a bit.  Just don't be too surprised to see some speed on the other side of the ball.  Iowa is not one of the old-fashioned slow motion Big Ten teams of old.  They will still punch you right in the teeth.  They are still a Big Ten team of course.  They will just get there quicker now to do it. 

 

My Fearless Prediction - Iowa 31, South Carolina 14.     

 

Kansas v. Minnesota  

 

This is actually an intriguing game.  It is intriguing to me anyway because I am anxious to see which Minnesota team shows up.  Will it be the Minnesota team that lost their last four games, one of those to a 4 and 8 team, or will it be the Minnesota team that played their first 8 games at 7 and 1?  Kansas is favored by ten points in this game.  I'm afraid that might not be enough. 

 

Both teams are 7 and 5 on the year, with the gophers coming in 6th place in the Big Ten and the Jayhawks coming in 7th in the Big 12.  

 

Both teams actually started the year impressively.  Both teams though got their early wins against some truly inferior opponents the first half of their respective seasons.  As the season rolled out, Kansas played several much better opponents than Minnesota.  

 

Minnesota suffered a real blow-out loss against Iowa and they looked horrible against a Michigan team that was horrible in their own right.  Kansas got blown out against Texas Tech and some might say that Kansas got blown out against Texas too but that game was actually closer than a 35-7 score might normally indicate. 

 

I think that this game comes down to Minnesota starting the season off great and thinking that they were something special.  They took the 34-21 loss against Ohio State in stride because, well, it was a loss to Ohio State after all.  They came back after that loss and won against Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, after which the wheels fell off.  They ended their season losing to three bowl teams and a hapless Michigan team that they had no business losing to.  

 

Kansas started the season with two impressive wins, against Florida International and Louisiana Tech, and then they lost to South Florida.  After their first loss they came out and won three against FCS Sam Houston State, Iowa State (barely) and Colorado.  Then they hit the tuff portion of their schedule, losing to Oklahoma, getting blown out by Texas Tech, beating Kansas State convincingly, and then losing to both Nebraska and Texas before closing their season out with a win against Missouri.  I don't know about anybody else, but an excellent team could make a case for losing two of those last six games and I wouldn't argue with them.  

 

Kansas is not a great team and they have their weaknesses, but nothing like the weaknesses that Minnesota has shown the latter half of their season.  Yes, although I think that Minnesota could have maybe played this Kansas team tuff in the first half of the year, I believe that Minnesota is really questioning everything at this point.  If Minnesota's losses had all come to good teams, they could have some solace.  That is not the case however and getting blown out by 55 points in the season finale against Iowa, who does not regularly put up huge numbers, is just inexcusable for any team planning on winning a bowl game.  Of course maybe not all is lost for Minnesota in this game. 

 

Of course if coach Brewster can get inside the heads of the Minnesota offense a little and their new offensive line coach (hired at the conclusion of the regular season) can make any difference, then Minnesota might even make this a game.  Minnesota is putting a new wrinkle into the spread offense.  They will be running the ball out of the I formation against Kansas to some extent, using a fullback for the first time this year and lining up one of their two freshmen running backs seven yards behind the line of scrimmage, so their offense will look a bit more like Penn State's Spread HD.  That will give the rookie backs an extra step to pick a hole and an extra blocker at the point of attack.  If Minnesota can somehow come up with an I formation that will give them some amount of effectiveness in the running game, then they could push the Jayhawks and make this a good game.  Changing the offense to this degree might also be just what this Minnesota team needs to give them back some level of confidence.  Making the new offense effective though with only 15 practices between their regular season and the bowl game might be a real challenge though. 

 

Let me digress back to the previous performances for both of these teams.  Minnesota has played some decent opponents who have amassed an overall record of 74 and 69.  Sort of middle of the road.  They have played 5 teams with winning records and 6 bowl teams with 4 of their 5 losses coming against those bowl teams. 

 

Kansas has played a much more difficult schedule, with their opponents generating an overall record of 87 and 58.  They have played 7 programs that have posted a winning season and those 7 teams are all bowl teams.  All of Kansas' losses have come to those bowl teams. 

 

Both teams have beaten two bowl teams.  For Minnesota, their wins against bowl teams were against Northern Illinois and Michigan State. The Kansas wins against bowl opponents were Louisiana Tech and Missouri.  

 

Here is how the teams rank nationally:  

                               Minnesota                                 Kansas 

                      Offense         Defense               Offense     Defense 

Points/gm       156th                99th                    48th          179th 

PSPKNINE'S  Big Ten picks - Week 13   UPDATED

Well, week 12 in the Big Ten was very interesting, with bowl implications throughout.  Wisconsin made a statement, as did Ohio State, Penn State, Northwestern and Iowa.  Some of those statements were not real loud of course but all of those teams stated that they wanted to play in a bowl game.

Wisconsin said "Hey, let us in".  Ohio State said that they are still around lurking in the recesses.  Penn State said that they were still alive, at least defensively.  Northwestern said that they have some tenacity left in them and Iowa said "Wow, that was a hell of a party". 

Some might say that Michigan even stated that they really didn't care about anything at this point in their season.  Personally I just think it was a bit more of the same from Michigan - look decent in the first half but fall off the second half.  Some might even say that they were saving themselves for the Ohio State game.  We will have to see about that.

Well, without further ado, on to this week's picks:

I am going to update the blog a bit early this evening - in fact WAY early.  Iowa and Minnesota are still in the third quater of their game.  I really have no business updating this post at this point but, after being at Beaver Stadium for most of the day, I am still cold and I have the wood cooking in here so I am looking for an excuse to stay put right now.  That and of course I am very happy with the way my picks have gone this week of course.  Besides that, Iowa put Minnesota away in the first half so that game is about as over as it can get.

Talk about some big scores today?  Today has been nothing like the rest of the Big Ten season.

While I'm here and thinking about it, I would also like to point out that it is now time for all Big Ten fans to start cheering on all the other Big Ten teams that will be representing in the upcoming bowl season.  I am asking for an official end to the intra-conference sniping at this point and the official start of the Big Ten fan club as opposed to individual team fan clubs.  Go BIG TEN. 

Indiana (3-8) @ Purdue (3-8): 

Purdue has now lost 7 of their last 8 games and Indiana has lost 8 of their last 9.  The showdown at Purdue this weekend could be a real test of wills for these two teams.  Both teams are currently sporting 3 and 8 records, so this game will determine the bottom of the Big Ten cellar for 2008.

Purdue offers a bit more of a passing attack than Indiana and the Hoosiers offer a bit more of a running game.  Both defenses are fairly ordinary however Purdue has put in a few good defensive efforts this year.

One interesting stat in this game is that Purdue has played five teams ranked in the top 25.  They haven't won any of them but I would suggest that their competition might have been a bit better than Indiana's this year.  A second stat that jumps out at me is the fact that Indiana has not won a game on the road this year.  A guy I know once told me that if you have two bad teams playing each other, stick with the home team.  I would have to agree with that thought.

And the envelope says:  Purdue 27 - Indiana 14

What actually happened - Purdue 62 - Indiana 10    WTF, did I see that right?

Ok, I want to talk to the person that truly envisioned this score in this game.  Go ahead, raise your hand...... I'll wait. 

I didn't think so.  Holy smokes, Painter was on fire in this one.  Painter accounted for all but a fraction of 479 yards passing by the Boilers, while they ammassed 35 first downs and 596 total yards.  Holy smokes.  I'm sorry Ed but that is total ownage.  To top that off Indiana gave up two interceptions and a fumble.  A dominating game just does not get any more complete than this game.  Well, check that for right now.  Iowa is winning 48-0 just starting the fourth quarter of their game.          

Illinois (5-6) @ Northwestern (8-3): 

This game also offers a contrast in style.  Illinois is more offensive-minded than Northwestern and Northwestern is more defensive-minded than Illinois.  

The Juice has the potential to be a real game breaker, both with his arms and his legs.  Of course Northwestern plays solid defense, with their opponents averaging 20 points per game.

Bacher for Northwestern has thrown 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year.  Additionally, Northwestern does not have a real go-to back, with Sutton accumulating just 770 yards on 150 carries this year.  Kafka actually has the better numbers of the two quarterbacks but he still has thrown more pics than touchdowns.  

Juice Williams has passed for 1,000 yards more than the Northwestern quarterbacks and their running game has also been more productive with Juice racking up almost as many yards on the ground as Sutton has for Northwestern.  Of course their defense gives up over 26 points per game too, so they need the extra offense just to compete.

Here is an interesting stat of the game.  Northwestern is 1 and 2 at home against the Big Ten this year.  Something else to ponder is that Illinois is 1-4 away from Champagne.  I think Northwestern evens their home record against the Big Ten.

And the envelope says: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 17

What actually happened:  Northwestern 27 - Illinois 10.

Ok, I was fairly close on this pick.  Actually this game might have been the best watch today as these teams played a very even football game statistically.  Both teams got 21 first downs and total net yardage gained was 339 for Northwestern and 335 for Illinois.  The Penalties were reasonably close and each team has one interception.  Time of possession did favor Illinois by almost two minutes.  Illinois did have a fumble however, while Northwestern did not.

This biggest difference between these two besides the extra fumble by Illinois was punt return yardage, one of which set Northwestern up at the Illinois 20 yard line.  

I'm sorry that Illinois did not get their 6th win and become bowl eligible but I am happy that Northwestern got the win and could get the nod for a New Year's Day bowl.  

Five Big Ten teams playing on or after New Year's Day this year would be a bit much to hope for but it sure would be fun.  I'll push for three though.       

Michigan (3-8) @ Ohio State (9-2):

This game is one that should not be close.  Ohio State should dominate this game from the start.  With that said, Michigan has played a couple decent first halves of football this year.  They even played for all 60 minutes once or twice this year.  I think that Michigan will have to play for about 90 minutes in this game to have any shot at all.

Ohio State has a good ground game and their defense is very strong.  Their linebackers are real ball hawks and they have great closing speed.  Laurinaitus will most likely collect a slew of post season awards, deservedly so.   

Offensively, Ohio State has come into their own of late, even showing on occasion that they can open up the playbook and grab some big chunks of yardage quickly.  Pryor is playing well and continually getting better.  Pryor has over 100- yards passing for the year after starting on the bench and he has rushed for 560 yards which is only 400 fewer than Wells.  Of course Wells missed several games also.  

Michigan plays a half decent rush defense but nowhere close to as good as they need to be to compete with Ohio State.  They have a decent defensive front and they might be able to put a little pressure on young Pryor but I do not believe that Michigan can show Ohio State anything that they haven't seen before this year.

Michigan might make this look like it could be a close game for the first 20 minutes or so.  If Ohio State does not come out and punch Michigan right in the mouth from the start this game could end up looking a lot closer than it should be.  Ohio State just has too much talent and skill for that however.  Michigan winds up ties for the Big Ten basement.  How long has it been since that has happened?

And the envelope says:  Ohio State 35 - Michigan 14

What actually happened:  Ohio State 42 - Michigan 7.

Hmmm, not too far off on the score, 7 points for each team.  This game was an example of pure domination also.  Michigan was 1 for 17 on their third down attempts, the gained 198 total yards and they gave up two fumbles.  No team has a chance of doing that and beating the Buckeyes.  To go along with their defensive domination, Ohio State's offense looked solid, gaining 416 yards with 232 of those yards coming from the running game.

There were very few penalties in this game.  One stat that doesn't get much attention are the punt returns.  A quick snapshot of the game would be Ohio State's 5 returns for 110 yards, compared to 2 returns for 10 yards for Michigan.

Ohio State should be playing in a BCS bowl and I believe, deservedly so.  I'm thinking Orange Bowl.  For Michigan, what can be said after the worst record in school history besides that Rich Rod will get you there eventually.  You have some talent and, as soon as Rich gets some guys in their that can thrive playing his schemes, you will be right back in the thick of things.  Just please quit losing recruits.           

Cal Poly @ Wisconsin (6-5):

You might have noticed that I did not enter Cal Poly's record for the year behind their name above.  That is not because I am too lazy to look it up, it is just because their record simply does not matter.  That and of course maybe I am just lazy.

Wisconsin is playing more like a Wisconsin team should play of late and they are playing at home in the final game of the regular season to get to 7-5 on the year and a respectable bowl game.  Notwithstanding their ugly game last week, they have been getting more consistent and hard-nosed as the year goes on.

Hold the phone though guys.  This little Cal Poly team is not someone that should be taken lightly.  These guys put up numbers that look more like basketball scores than football scores.  Wait a minute, I follow Penn State, remember?  Their scores look like Penn State's basketball scores, maybe not the basketball scores for the rest of the Big Ten.

In their last game, the Cal Poly Mustangs won 51-27.  They gained 522 total yards for the game and 427 of those yards came on the ground.  What's more is that Cal Poly is ranked fifth in the FCS division in rushing defense.  Their opponents in that last game (UC Davis) gained 366 yards in total offense, only 34 of them came on the ground.  Cal Poly has won 7 straight games now this year and their record is 8 and 1.  See, I'm not that lazy.

In their one loss this year, Arkansas, Little Rock beat them 67 - 40.  That's where my basketball score analogy came from.

The long and the short of it is that Cal Poly is not coming into Wisconsin to be nice, to make a paycheck or to try to attract some attention.  They are coming to pull an Appalachian State on Wisconsin's ass and if Wisconsin isn't ready to play this game things could get real ugly, real fast.

Please Wisconsin, for the sake of your bowl game and the Big Ten conference in general, please pummel these guys and do it right out of the box.  Don't let them hang around.  If you overlook these guys they will put some numbers up on the board on you and it would seem that they might be able to hold PJ Hill to a mild roar in the ground game.

This game is really not a good situation for Wisconsin.  Nothing good can come of it for them.  If they win, even if they win huge, everyone just says it was a FCS division school and the game is forgotten.  If they play it close though or, heaven forbid, lose the game, then both Wisconsin and the Big Ten suck and are overrated, etc.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.

And the envelope says:  Wisconsin 27 - Cal Poly 24                                       Way too close for my liking.

What actually happened:  Wisconsin 36 - Cal Poly 35.

I was worried about Cal Poly giving the Badgers as much as they could handle and they pushed about as far as a team can go without winning, like into overtime.  If Cal Poly could just make an extra point, any of three actually, this game would have been a Loss for the Badgers. 

Cal Poly outrushed the Badgers 276 yards to 184 yards.  Wow.  Cal Poly came into the game with a great rushing attack but against the Badgers?  They showed why their rushing game has been so successul today.  Their quarterback ran for 118 yards on 23 carries and their main running back gained 81 yards on 15 carries.

Luckily, Wisconsin's Sherer had some good success throwing the ball, getting 245 yards out of 13 completions.  Wisconsin had two turnovers that helped keep Cal Poly in the game.

The Mustangs actually dominated both the first downs (23 to 17) and the time of possession (all but 40 minutes to just over 20 minutes).  How odd is that for a game against Wisconsin in Wisconsin?  Wisconsin did hold the edge in total yardage gained though and, other than the two turnovers, they played a fairly mistake-free game, only getting two five yard penalties.  Cal Poly only had 1 five-yard penalty so both teams played cleanly.

This game pushes Wisconsin's record to 7and 5, which gives them a better shot at a decent bowl game.  Hopefully it will give them an idea of some things to work on too between now and whatever bowl game it is that they play in this year.                      

Iowa (7-4) @ Minnesota (7-4):

Now this game could be a last second thriller.  Both teams are 7-4 with Iowa holding the edge over Minnesota in the big ten, 4-3 versus 3-4 for Minnesota.  Both teams are playing for the possibility of receiving an invitation to a very good bowl date.

Minnesota has had more success through the air offensively than they have on the ground for the most part.  Iowa's defense is much tougher against the run than they are the pass.  This would seem to favor Minnesota.

Iowa likes to run the ball.  Who wouldn't with Greene in their backfield?  Minnesota just is not overly impressive defensively against either the run or the pass.  That would seem to favor Iowa.

If Minnesota can load up against the run they could make things a bit more difficult for Greene.  He will get his 100 yard game again even if Minnesota plays with eleven in the box, but he might not run for 200 again this week if Minnesota loads up the line of scrimmage.

I think that the most telling stat in this game is the fact that Iowa thus far this year is 1-3 away from Kinnick Stadium.  First, they have only played four games away from home and secondly, their only road win was against Indiana.  We cannot forget that Iowa has been in every game they have played this year though, home or away.  This is a team that could easily be 9-2 on the season and maybe even better.

Minnesota has lost two home games this year and those were their last two, against Northwestern and Michigan.  Iowa also lost to Northwestern at home.  

Iowa did not look particularly impressive last weekend, which might have been understandable, but Minnesota hasn't looked impressive for several weeks now, losing their last three games.   

If Minnesota were back to playing like they were earlier in the season I would think that these teams were evenly matched.  This game is difficult to call, between Minnesota's losing streak and Iowa's troubles on the road.  I believe though that Iowa's physical nature will win out in the long run.    

The envelope says:  Iowa 20 - Minnesota 17. 

What actually happened:  Iowa 55 - Minnesota 0.

Well, here we are back to the theme for the day - domination.  This game just finished up so I will gladly announce that I am 5 and 0 for this week's picks.  Yep, that just broke my cherry on picking at least all of the winners right.  Of course I could not have been further off on my prediction of the score for this game.  Again, we all knew that Iowa has a great defense but who would have really thought that an Iowa team that had previously lost 3 of their 4 road games this year would have gone Into Minneapolis and come away with a score anything near this?  Well, ok, I'm sure that IHawk was hoping, but I doubt that he ever thought it would be anything quite like this.

Pure ownage from start to finish.  The First downs were 26 to 6, 3rd down efficiency was 71% to 21 %, rushing yards were 227 to 7, passing yards were 261 to 127 and total yards were 488 to 134.  134 total yards??  Holy smokes Iowa, what were you trying to do here?  Minnesota trumped that performance by also giving up three turnovers.  In this game though I don't believe that the turnovers would have made much of a difference.

Tell you what this game does more than anything else.  It tells Iowa's bowl opponent that they are going to have a difficult time deailing with this defense and they better spend a lot of time worrying about both Greene and Stanzi because, as good as Greene is, this Iowa offense is not one-dimensional.

Unfortunately it also tells Minnesota's bowl opponent that Minnesota's record might not be a true reflection on the type of team that will present itself on game day.  Yes, I know that Minnesota has a lot of guys out right now.  Many of those people are key ingredients in what went into making this a successful year for Minnesota.  To be this thoroughly dominated though simply does not bode well for you going into your bowl game.

I truly hope that Iowa has a shot at a New Year's Day bowl.  A statement like this should certainly make their case for them.                            

Now for my game of the week.                                             Michigan State (9-2) @ Penn State (10-1):

Michigan State is having their best season in years and they are coming off a bye week.  Penn State is coming off an OK performance last week but it was against Indiana so it might be difficult to tell just what kind of performance the Lions really had.  

Michigan State as a team is not great at a lot, with the exception of running Ringer successfully most of the time.  Ringer has gained over 1500 yards on the season.  Michigan State offensively, other than Ringer is somewhat mediocre.  Defensively Michigan State holds most teams down to a reasonable number on points scored, with the exception of Ohio State of course and they play well against the pass.  Not real well, but well enough to keep them out of trouble for the most part.

It might be easy to say that Michigan State is a one-dimensional team but you just cannot forget about Hoyer quarterbacking the Spartans.  Hoyer has passed for over 2,000 yards this season and he spreads those yards out evenly between three receivers.

Statistically, Penn State should dominate this game.  They are ranked much better on both sides of the ball.  You know what that means though, right?  Not a whole lot.  Unfortunately, Penn State goes as their heads go.  If Penn State is mentally ready to play, they can play well against anyone in the country.  If they are just not ready to go they can look bad against just about anyone in the country.  

Penn State has not gotten over their loss to Iowa yet.  I said last week that the Lions needed to heal during their game against Indiana.  Well, the Lion defense was ready to go but their offense shot themselves in the foot more often than not.  That is totally a between the ears sort of problem.  I also stated that Penn State had to come out and play a dominant game last week to have any chance of beating Michigan State this week.  There was simply nothing dominant about the Penn State offense last week, at least not early.

Understand that I think Penn State will come out and be more prepared for Michigan State this week than they were for Indiana last week.  I still believe that they start slowly though and maybe even fall behind early, as has happened too frequently this year.  I'm looking for a first quarter score of 14 - 7 Michigan State.  I wouldn't be surprised if the teams go into half time tied at 21.

I would be very surprised then if Penn State does not come out and dominate during the second half of this game.  They have dominated just about every second half this year with the exception of the Iowa game.  

And the envelope says:  Penn State 42 - Michigan State 21

What really happened:  Penn State 49 - Michigan State 18.

I wasn't too far off on the score for this one.  I had an inkling, and a little inside information, that the Penn State offense would be back to it's normal self this week.  Darryl Clark was a world-beater today.  He played an excellent game against a very good football team.  I would like to say that this game was a very dominant performance for Penn State but that would not be 100 % correct.  

Michigan State had more first downs than Penn State, 23 to 19.  Michigan State also gained 173 yards on kickoff returns compared to Penn State's 54 yards.  The time of possession was almost even, as were the penalty yards. 

After that though, Penn State pretty much dominated.  Penn State gained 557 total yards to Michigan State's 332.  Penn State averaged 8.4 yards per play to Michigan State's 4.4 yards.  3rd down efficiency was 76% to 25 % in favor of Penn State and, the biggest stat of the game was that Penn State held Michigan State to 35 net yards rushing.  I fully expected Ringer to gain a lot more yards than he did.  Ringer gained 42 yards on 17 carries.  Understand though that Ringer did not get the touches that he normally does due to the fact that MSU was playing catch up for a good portion of the game.

A second huge stat was that Penn State had no turnovers while Michigan State had two interceptions, one of which really hurt them in the first half leading to a quick touchdown for Penn State.

I have to tell you, I was at this game and, even though it felt like it was zero degrees out there, being there today was really great.  Did you see me there?  I was the one wearing all white.  Seriously, this was a very important win for Penn State, securing their second Big Ten Championship (although shared with Ohio State again) in the last 3 years.  That's not too bad for the new kid on the block with an 81 year old coach.  Of course this game did tend to serve notice on either USC or Oregon State.  It told USC that, if they wind up going to the Rose Bowl they are not in for a cakewalk.  It told Oregon State that we got a lot more abuse here for you.

Michigan State fans, SparT, do not despair.  You have a very talented team there.  I had not given your linebackers the credit that they deserve before this game.  Your linebackers can move and hit people.  Your offense is good with Hoyer and Ringer supplying a one-two punch and I was impressed with your coach today, at least right up until the last minute when he called two time-outs in a row just to make me sit for another couple minutes in what felt like sub zero weather.  WTF was that about anyway?  SparT, are you really Dantonio?  Did you just do this to me to get back at me?  

I cerainly hope that he wasn't too critical of Penn State's throwing for one last touchdown with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  I mean you guys got your first touchdown with 22 seconds left in the first half and your second touchdown with 1:09 left in the game.  If you guys play until the end I see no reason to be upset about the other guys playing to the end.  Besides that you have shown that you have a propensity for coming back from behind.                  

Well folks, those are my fearless predictions for this week in Big Ten Football.  I will have links posted here for two other Big Ten blogs, one by Seabass and one by IHawk.  Seabass is the original Ohio State homer and of course IHawk sort of likes Iowa a little.  Don't ask me why though........

Their blogs certainly offer a different perspective and, most likely, different picks.  Their links will be right here as soon as those guys get their picks up.

 

Follow this link to go to the Seabass blog.

Follow this link to go to IHawk's blog.  Those are his weekly predictions.  IHawk also puts up a first look that offers some analysis not seen here.  That post is here:  IHawk's 1st look         

I plan on coming out with a quick look at the bowl games once the match-ups are announced.  I will also have my picks for all of the Big Ten bowl games out a few days before the first bowl game.  Until then, see you on the blogs.                                   

PSPKNINE'S BIG TEN PICKS ---- WEEK # 12      UPDATED

 

Well, week # 11 in is the books.  We had our share of upsets plus a couple very dominant games by both Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Actually it was a pretty good week for the Big Ten all in all.  Yes, the Big 10 lost any hope of having a representative in the National Championship game but, Penn State obviously did not belong to be there anyway so it might be better to lose one now rather than be embarrassed in the national spotlight.  

As it turns out, the Big Ten now has three teams ranked in the top 15 of this week's BCS rankings.  The conference, on a whole, is showing some parity and toughness, unlike some other conferences that are just showing that they just weren't quite what all the pundits were expecting them to be. 

Well, let's get to it.  

MICHIGAN STATE:  Bye week. 

This is actually a win-win for Michigan State.  First, they get a much needed break and it comes at an opportune time, prior to their final regular season game against Penn State on November 22nd.  Additionally, they get to sit back and watch if a possibly down-trodden Oklahoma State team can beat the Colorado Buffalos in Colorado this weekend.  There is a possibility of one or two others teams currently ranked ahead of Michigan State losing also they will only move up in the rankings next week.  

And the envelope says:  Michigan State will hold the # 14 BCS ranking next week.

Ok, I was wrong about michigan State moving up a notch in the BCS.  Michigan State is still at # 15.  They did benefit however both mentally and physically from their week off.  Nobody has seriously threatened the Nittany lions at home this year, at least not by the end of the game.  They have seen Penn State have three very poor first halves at home though, including one this past weekend against Indiana.  Michigan State has got to be thinking that they really have a great shot shot to beat the Lions this coming weekend.  Of course they also know that, if they can beat Penn State, they will only end up sending Ohio State to the Rose Bowl because there is just no way that Michigan can handle the Ohio State team. 

Northwestern @ Michigan:  

This game could be, and maybe should be the game of the week.  Northwestern got crushed by Ohio State and Michigan experienced a major resurgence in their program after five straight losses against a good Minnesota team that had been surprising a lot of teams. 

For Northwestern, they have to know that this Michigan team does have talent and their showing against Ohio State was not good.  Northwestern has to come into this game in Ann Arbor needing to prove something to everyone, especially themselves.  Northwestern moved the ball reasonably well against Ohio State, getting 20 first downs and with a third down percentage of 53 %, which is good against the Buckeye defense.  By the same token they had three turnovers.  Additionally, Northwestern took 85 yards away from themselves in penalty yardage.  No team can do that against Ohio State and expect to do well.  

Northwestern must take care of the football and keep their mistakes to a minimum.  Neither their offense nor their defense is dominant enough to make up for multiple turnovers. 

Michigan on the other hand is an enigma.  Which Michigan shows up from week to week seems to be a roll of the dice.  Michigan dominated Minnesota this past weekend on both sides of the ball, gaining 435 yards on offense and holding Minnesota to only 8 first downs for the game - only one in the first half.  Of course Michigan has had their problems in previous game this year, losing a shoot-out with Purdue (allowing 48 points) and only scoring ten points against Toledo in Ann Arbor.  

Well who wants to throw the dice?  I myself am thinking that Michigan comes back home intent on showing the world that they aren't really that bad and, in fact, if and when they all get on the same page, they can actually be good.  Their first half of the Penn State game and their past game against Minnesota should prove that Michigan has some talent.  Now they are trying to prove it to themselves also.  In this game we have two teams that are trying to prove just who they are this week.  That's why this game could be a real humdinger and could well be my game of the week.  For now though: upset special??? 

And the envelope says:  Michigan 28 - Northwestern 14  

The real deal - Northwestern 21 - Michigan 14.

Well, how wrong can I be about a game anyway?  Not only did I pick the wrong team but the score wasn't particularly close.  Actually the game was fairly close in most areas, turnovers, total yards, first downs and time of possession, with michigan edging Northwestern in most of those areas.  Michigan took a lot more penalties though and the timing/field position of the turnovers was key.  The Michigan defense handled the run nicely, limiting northwestern to 59 yards on 37 attempts but they couldn't stop the pass.  Cpnversely Northwestern couldn't handle the run but they held the Michigan passing attack to 12 of 36 attempts for a total of 83 yards.

Michigan couldn't get it done in the second half - again.  This game does not bode well for bowl-bound Northwestern, especially if they get paired up against a team that has a real rushing attack.  Northwestern has some work to do yet, not the least of which will be getting ready to handle Juice Williams and company next week.   Northwestern will be at home for the last game of the regular season so they should be ok.     

Purdue @ Iowa:  

Iowa gets another home game and this one against a team that shouldn't push them quite as hard as they were pushed last weekend.  Purdue is not having a good year.  They lost five in a row before beating Michigan in a Big 12 south kind of game 48-42, and then they came out and were thoroughly dominated by Michigan State, only being able to score a last minute touchdown to avoid the shut-out.  

Looking at Iowa one would think that this game should be an easy game for them.  The only thing that could stand in their way might be themselves.  Purdue can put up points, as evidenced by the Michigan game, and they can also play some good defense as evidenced by only allowing Penn State 20 points and Ohio State 16.  My concern in this game is that Iowa could be a bit hung over after their big win this past weekend.  I don't believe that will happen because I think the coaches will have them well grounded, but it can happen.  Personally I think that Shonn Greene will run for 200 plus yards this weekend and Iowa will drop-kick the boilermakers in Iowa City.  

And the envelope says:  Iowa 41 - Purdue 14. 

The real deal Iowa 22 - Purdue 17

I expected Iowa to dominate this game with the ground attack and they did just exactly that.  In fact Iowa rang up the purdue defense to the tune of 248 yards on the ground with Greene getting over 200 as predicted.  However the Iowa secondary gave up 251 yards through the air on 37 of 52 passes by Purdue.  If Greene does not receive serious mention relative to the Heisman race I will think he is getting robbed.

I think it was clear that Iowa was not playing up to potential, but even at that they should have had no problem putting Purdue away.  Iowa is another Big Ten bowl-bound team that has a few areas that need tweaked a little anyway.  Stanzi was 8 of 15 for 72 yards.  With the running game hitting on all cylinders there generally is not that much need for a passing game.  Chances are however that not only in their bowl game, but their game next week against Minnesota will also require a bit more of a passing attack.  Minnesota might be just the perfect game for iowa to ensure that all facets of their game are operating as intended.          

Minnesota @ Wisconsin:   

This is a very interesting game and one that could also actually be my game of the week, if I weren't such a Penn State homer that is.  Minnesota has had two poor showings its last two games with a close loss to Northwestern and what could almost be considered a blow-out loss to Michigan.  Wisconsin had a terrible mid-season spell, losing four in a row to teams that they normally are very competitive with.  They have played their last three games though very tough, beating Illinois and Indiana and losing a heart breaker to Michigan State.  

This game closes out the year for Wisconsin in the Big Ten, as their final game of the year is against Cal Poly.  Right now their record stands at 5 and 5 and they really need two wins to cement a spot in a bowl game.  This past week they put up over 600 yards of total offense while holding Indiana to 274.  Wisconsin won the game in Indiana 55 to 20 while having four turnovers.  Now that is an impressive performance.  I know that Indiana is really looking bad at this point but four turnovers often lets a lesser team into a game.  Wisconsin is not going to have the luxury of being free and loose with the ball this weekend, even at home.  

Minnesota has a bowl game wrapped up with their 7 and 3 record thus far.  I'm not sure if they think they are taking a break or what but they need to pick up their performance a lot this week to compete with the Badgers.  Minnesota has had several good games this year.  They have been reasonably close in their losses and a couple of their wins have been impressive.  Then again some of their wins have been real close too, like by 4 points over Northern Illinois, a 16 to 7 game against Indiana and a 27-20 game against Illinois.  Minnesota is currently sitting at number 4 in the Big Ten along with Northwestern, Illinois and Iowa.  I believe that this log jam at # 4 will start to clear a bit this week but Minnesota moves down instead of up. 

And the envelope says:  Wisconsin 42 - Minnesota 10  

The real deal - Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 32

This is yet another game that I missed badly on the point prediction.  I expected Wisconsin to come out and hang about 500 total yards on the Gophers but the teams played out fairly evenly.  This was a sloppy game and both teams shared in both dishing out and receiving the slop.  There were 6 turnovers between the two teams and 117 yards in penalties shared.  limiting the mistakes will be something that boths teams need to work on quite a bit in the coming weeks.  If this game would have been played in Minnesota we might have seen a different result.

Both of these teams will be bowl-bound.  Hopefully Wisconsin can get back to thriving on offense next week when they take on Cal Poly.  Minnesota catches Iowa in Minnesota next week.  That game could be very interesting.

Ohio State @ Illinois: 

This could be a real decent game.  Of course for that to happen, Illinois would actually have to play football this week.  What happened to playing teams tough Illinois?  You gave Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota and Wisconsin all they wanted, and then some, then you go out and lose to Western Michigan out of the MAC conference?  Throw me a friggin bone here guys. 

Illinois is a better team than that.  Illinois gained 80 more total yards than Western Michigan but of course Illinois threw two interceptions also to Western Michigan's one turn-over.  Still, Illinois has to play better than that in representing the Big Ten.  A 5 and 4 Big ten team should beat a 7 and 2 MAC team every time.  It should be basically like playing against the Pac 10, excluding USC of course, which is about the only team in the Pac 10 that still plays football, right?  

Ohio State had a very impressive road performance this past week against Northwestern.  Ohio State rang up the Northwestern defense for 244 yards on the ground and another 197 yards through the air on only 9 pass completions.  Guess what that means?  Ohio State has opened their playbook a bit and they are going downfield with the ball.  That is a welcome change from the play calling earlier in the year, when it seemed that Uncle Jim was keeping the play calling very close to his sweater vest.  I could understand keeping things fairly simple at first when Pryor first started playing but Boeckman is a very experienced quarterback that certainly had a good handle on things to start the year.  

Regardless of the cause earlier, it seems that Ohio State is now ready to pull the strings on offense a bit more.  Illinois will have trouble handling, Beanie Wells.  Terrell Pryor shouldn't be too much of a problem considering the fact that he is cut out of the same cloth as Juice Williams so they are used to dealing with a fast and mobile quarterback.  The Ohio State defense is either going to win or lose this game.  

This one shouldn't be close on paper but the game is being played at Illinois.  Illinois is 4 and 1 at home this year, with their only loss coming at the hands of Minnesota by 7 points.  In that Minnesota game, Illinois gained 550 total yards while giving up 312 total yards.  462 of Illinois' yards came from the passing game.  Illinois also had two fumbles and an interception lost in that game compared to only one turnover for Minnesota.  

Illinois needs two wins badly to lock up a bowl berth.  Ohio State is playing to keep their chance of going to the Rose Bowl alive and well.  Ohio State should win this game by 21 points even though Illinois is tuff at home.  

And the envelope says:  Illinois 21- Ohio State 17.

The real deal - Ohio State 30 - Illinois 20.

This game was actually a bit closer than the score.  Ohio State was the better team, without a doubt but Illinois has been playing tuff at home this year and they did it again this weekend.  Illionois actually outgained Ohio State by 100 total yards and they had a very balanced attack.  They held Pryor to 49 yards passing but they could not stop the running game.  I felt certain that Illinois would be accustomed to containing a quarterback that can run.  I was obviously incorrect.  Pryor gained 110 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Additionally, Wells ran for 143 yards and a 6 yards per carry average.  

Juice outgained Terrelle with 192 yards through the air plus 48 yards on the ground.  It seemed to me that Ohio State got the ten point lead at the half and then sort of turned on the cruise control a bit.  The game was fairly well played with illinois having two turnovers and Ohio State having one.  The teams shared a total of 58 penalty yards.  Illinois could obtain bowl eligibility next week at Northwestern.  That could be a good game but Illinois is on the road.  Even if they do pull out the win they end the season with a 6 and 6 mark.  Ohio State will most likely be in a BCS bowl game.  They played solid ball and did everything they needed to do to win the game but it was not overly impressive.  They can do better.               

Now that is a ballsy pick, based mainly on Illinois playing at home and me thinking that maybe Ohio State has convinced themselves that this game will be a walk.  Besides that, lurking way back down in the recesses of the Ohio State player's minds is the upcoming game against Michigan on the 22nd.  Michigan just proved last week that they still know how to play football and Illinois did not.  I'm guessing that maybe, just maybe, Illinois catches Ohio State napping just a bit.  The Juice runs loose in Champagne.  Sorry Seabass. 

 

Indiana @ Penn State:  Yep, my game of the week.  

How in the world could this be anybody's game of the week you ask?  Well, let me tell you.  Penn State is going through a dilemma at this point.  They are questioning themselves, especially Darryl Clark, and the defense is questioning their ability to stop the run after Shonn Greene lit them up for 117 yards this past weekend.  Indiana wouldn't appear to impose too much of a challenge for Penn State this year. 

Not so fast.......  Penn State has just proven yet again that they have their weaknesses.  Additionally, the last time Penn State lost a game late in the year after they thought they had all the pieces together, they totally fell apart for the next several games.  God, I hate even sounding a little bit like Lee Corso.  The coaches are going to have to do a job to get the team up enough mentally to play anything more that tiddlywinks.  I'm not sure that the coaches can do that.  In fact, if anything, the Penn State coaching staff has shown in the past that they have no ability whatsoever to prepare their team mentally for anything. 

Anyway, Indiana has only played in a couple of close games this year; one to Central Michigan and one to Northwestern.  They even won the Northwestern game.  They did beat Murray State and Western Kentucky handily to start the year.  No, I do not expect Indiana to win this game, especially in Happy Valley.  If Penn State does not come out though ready to play and put up at least 50 points while holding Indiana to under 15 points then they will lose to Michigan State the following week.  Penn State must come out like this is a bowl game, determined to run through people and score at will.  Anything less will be seriously bad news.  Anything less and they might as well just camp out at Paternoville for the Michigan State game.  I expect that this game will be a walk but we need Penn State to play like the game means everything because, in some ways, it does.  This game must heal the Lions. 

And the envelope says:  Penn State 55 - Indiana 10. 

I have to tell you that I was thoroughly disappointed with this game, especially the first half.  Penn State made more mistakes in this one game than it seems like they had all year.  Again Darryl Clark was less than impressive, throwing a pick and losing two fumbles.  Clark did do some things right though but i'm not sure if it was enough to build his confidence level to where it needs to be to compete next week.  

I said that this game must heal the Lions.  I think it did defensively, with the exception of the one 57 yard run they gave up to Thigpen in the first quarter.  In fact even including that 57 yard run the Nittinay Lions only gave up 180 total yards on 53 plays.  Without that one play Penn State's defense surrendered 2.3 yards per play.  Of course it was against Indiana who just does not have much going offensively this year.

Penn State gained 23 first downs on 442 yards which isn't a bad performance but, when compared to what Wisconsin put on indiana (over 600 yards) it isn't exactly good either.  Penn State had three turnovers and 25 yards in penalties for the game.  That is the season high for turnovers and one of their highest penalty against totals on the year.  In fact one of the main reasons for Penn State's success this year has been the lack of mistakes, especially on offense.

Indiana finishes the regular season next week against Purdue to decide the occupant of the  Big Ten cellar for the year, after which their season comes to an end.  Hopefully they will find something to build on. 

Penn State plays Michigan State at home next week to determine the Big Ten Champion and of course the Big Ten's Rose Bowl participant.  Penn State has a few things to work on this week.  They will not be able to play Michigan State like they played Indiana.  They have to work to get Darryl's head screwed back on straight quick, fast and in a hurry.  Actually Indiana was doing nothing but trying to strip the ball, but they had some good success with it.  I'm sure that Michigan State took note of Indiana's success and will be coming to Happy Valley intent on doing the same thing. 

Next week's game is going to be very interesting.                

Home field advantage is weighing heavily in my picks this week, particularly the Illinois game.  Ed, sorry about the PSU/Indiana game pick.  

There are a few games here that really could go either way so the picks from both Seabass and IHawk will be more than entertaining.  By the way all you Penn State fans, please don't mind the little birdie occupying my avatar this week.  The Lion will be back next week. 

Here are the links as promised:

Seabaa's week 12 picks will be here:  Seabass

IHawk's First Look for week 12 in the Big Ten - IHawk_1st_look 

IHawk's Picks will be here   IHawk's week 12 picks are here:  IHawk

 

 

Big Ten picks - Crunch time  

Well, here we are entering week 11 of the College Football season and the BCS standings are still about clear as mud.  I'm not going to jump and shout at this point because Texas Tech jumped from 7 to 2 in the BCS rankings after beating Texas with a last second touchdown at home.  I don't think it is right of course but, if they didn't jump PSU this weekend after beating Texas they would have over the next two weeks if they beat both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma anyway.  

I mean Oklahoma has beaten TCU (who hasn't beaten anyone) so they certainly deserve to be ranked in the top 5.  Oklahoma State has beaten Missouri (who hasn't beaten anyone except Illinois) so they certainly deserve to be in the top 10, right?  

While we are at it, we might as well look at Alabama too.  They beat an overrated Georgia team so they must be number 1.   

Oh well.  Hopefully there is enough football left to be played to help the pollsters see the error of their ways in ranking teams based on conference strength perceptions. 

The Big Ten on the other hand continues to pummel each other resulting in some surprises yesterday.  Michigan State was in a scrap yesterday and almost blew it, Northwestern and Minnesota played a classic, Purdue impressed, Indiana didn't quite get the paperwork finished and Iowa didn't quite hold Illinois' Juice down enough.  

I say it is crunch time because the Big Ten has 5 teams bowl eligible with 7 wins or more.  Two additional teams, Iowa and Illinois are looking to become Bowl eligible this week.  

I don't look for quite so many surprises this week, or, at least I hope there aren't many surprises.  What follows are my fearless prognostications for the upcoming Big Ten football weekend. 

 

Illinois at Western Michigan:  

Here we go again playing a 7 and 2 MAC team.  Illinois is at 5 and 4 on the year thus far and they have been a hit and miss team all year.  They played Missouri tuff and they gave Penn State all the Lions wanted too in happy Valley.  They lost a couple close games to Minnesota and Wisconsin and then they come out and beat Iowa in a close game.  

Illinois has the tools and a great quarterback.  Their defense does a respectable job for the most part and they have truly been in every game they have played this year.  

The long and the short of it is that a 5 and 4 Big ten team should beat a 7 and 2 MAC team.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Illinois had a big game against Iowa and I think they want to get bowl eligible this week.  

Illinois 21 - Western Michigan 17.

How it turned out - Western Michigan 23 - Illionois 17. 

Close on the score but I had the teams backwards.  Two interceptions in the second quarter just killed Illinois.  They beat Western Michigan in yards per play, passing yards and rushing yards.  Illionois could not convert a 3rd down to save themselves.  This was a very disappointing performance.  What is it with these pidly MAC teams?  Does every Big 10 team just go to sleep when playing against a MAC team?  A bit too late to wake up now.  Illionois now faces a real uphill climb trying to become bowl eligible.  They play Ohio State next week and norwestern the following week.  Even going 6 and 6 for the year is going to be a challenge for this illionois squad. 

 

Wisconsin @ Indiana:  

Indiana is not real good this year but, with that said, they have only suffered two blow-out losses all year, one to Iowa and the other to Illinois.  Ok, Ball State clipped them 42-20 but Indiana was within 4 first downs and 60 yards of what they allowed Ball State so I don't consider that a blow out.  Indiana has had a couple good weekends too, beating Northwestern a couple weeks ago and playing Central Michigan tough yesterday.   

Wisconsin is a big, strong physical team that has talent.  I think they may have had a bit of a mental let-down in mid-season after the Michigan loss and then losing a close one to the buckeyes.  They just weren't the same team when Penn State played them.  Just when they start getting back on track with a win against Illinois they get Michigan State and they lose a heartbreaker.  

Wisconsin should be a lock for this game but if they go into the same funk they experienced earlier in the year after yesterday's heartbreaker, Indiana could pull off the quick upset.  I don't think that will happen though:  

Wisconsin 37 - Indiana 10. 

How it turned out:  Wisconsin 55 - Indiana 20.

Wisconsin came out swinging in this one and Indiana wound up swinging in the breeze.  Wisconsin racked up 601 yards in this game, including 441 yards rushing.  I would call it a contest but it really wasn't, at least not in the second half.  The first half was close, with the teams hitting the locker room at a 14 - 13 score.  The second half was all Badgers.  The Badgers lost 3 fumbles inside their own 40 yard line in the first half which is what kept it close during that stanza.  The second half was all Wisconsin.  Both teams ended with a couple of banged-up players.  I hope that all will be back with no lasting ill effects.          

 

Michigan at Minnesota: 

At 2 and 7 Michigan is about as down and out as a team can be.  They just locked up their first losing season in like forever yesterday with their loss at Purdue.  Everyone that is any good at all has beaten the Wolverines this year except Illinois.  I take no pleasure in making that statement by the way as I do respect the Michigan program.  Regardless of respect however they are running into another good team this weekend.  

Minnesota is going bowling again this year and they have a solid team.  They lost at the horseshoe and they lost at home against Northwestern just yesterday.  That game yesterday was a real battle and a tuff loss for Minnesota.  They need to re-group this week and get back to their game.  If they can focus on the task at hand this game will be physical but it will be a win for Minnesota.  

Minnesota 28 - Michigan 21. 

How it turned out:  Michigan 29 - Minnesota 6. 

Minnesota really surprised me in this game.  I had it all wrong.  I had known that Michigan was capable of putting up some points and playing some good defense but I was not aware of the fact that they could keep it up for an entire game.  I believe that Michigan might have just proved something to themselves.  They may have also just served notice to the Buckeyes that they will not go down without a fight.  Michigan gained a total of 435 yards in this game while Minnesota only rang up 188.  Michigan's yards were evenly split also with 232 coming on the ground and 202 coming through the air.  This wasn't a game decided by turn-overs either.  Each team had only one.  Michigan just played solid on both sides of the ball and i think they surprised the gophers.  One indication of just how this game can be characterized is that Minnesota only had one first down in the first half.  they had only eight first downs for the entire game.  It is difficult to beat anyone that way.  Props go out to Michigan.  Their team showed that they had some heart an they played consistently well throughout the game.   

 

Purdue at Michigan State:  

Purdue has been all over the place this year, they lost in an overtime game to Oregon, they looked terrible against Notre Dame but they looked decent in the following losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Northwestern and Minnesota.  Yesterday they beat Michigan in a close game.  I think Purdue is just a couple pieces short of having a real nice team.  I don't think their coaches have them inspired either, but that is another story altogether.  

Michigan State started the year with a loss against Cal. in a game that they should have won.  They did get blown out against Ohio State at home and they won a real slobber-knocker yesterday at home against Wisconsin.  They catch Purdue at home this week as well but I believe their results this week will leave little question as to which team is better.  Michigan State will play this game in an effort to convince themselves that they belong in the upper confines of the Big Ten.  Look for them to prove a point against Purdue. 

Michigan State 38 - Purdue 14.

How it turned out:  Michigan State 21 - Purdue 7.

This game was turn-over riddled and, even though Michigan State came out the winner as predicted, with their four turn-overs they did not amass the score that I was anticipating.  Michigan State sets themselves up well for a possible share of the Big Ten Championship and Purdue is offivially eliminated from bowl contention.  Ringer ran for just short of his per-game average with 121 yards.  Hoyer was serviceable as his arm accounted for an additional 154 yards.  Michigan State's defense gave up a total of 191 yards.  Now Michigan State gets a week off before coming to Happy Valley to make their case for a share of the Big Ten crown.         

 

Ohio State at Northwestern:  

This game has the potential to be a lot of fun.  Both teams are at 7 and 2 for the year.  I think that Ohio State certainly has more talent than Northwestern but sometimes the Buckeyes do not play the offensive scheme that allows that talent to shine.  Northwestern plays solid defense and their offense is capable of scoring against anyone. 

Northwestern started the season strong before losing a battle with Michigan State and then following that up by losing to Indiana.  What's up with the Indiana loss guys?  Tell you what's up with that is they lost their focus.  They saw the more difficult portion of their schedule upcoming and they weren't even thinking about Indiana.  Well guys, now you are into the tuff part of your season and you better be ready or this game will get out of hand quick, fast and in a hurry.  

Ohio State is coming off a tough loss to Penn State two weeks ago that really could have gone either way.  It was an emotional game for all involved, not the least of which was young Terrell Pryor who is probably blaming himself for the loss.  That isn't the case though Mr. Pryor - your days will come.  I think that Ohio State used their bye week to get over their set back and I doubt you will notice any ill effects.  In fact I think that Pryor will re-double his efforts and, with Beanie Wells, who should be 100 percent by now, will carry the Buckeye's offense to an impressive win.  In fact I think that Pryor will gain at least 75 yards on the ground this week in an effort to show that he will not fumble the ball under any circumstances. 

Ohio State 28 - Northwestern 17.

How it turned out:  Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 10.

Ohio State made a big statement in this game.  No, the staement wasn't that they could blow out Northwestern, nor that beanie Wells is back to full strength or that Terrelle Pryor is going to be great.  All of that is true of course but Ohio State seemed to have turned the corner regarding their play selection.  A fake punt?  Scoring with  7 seconds left in the game?  Wow, is this really Ohio State?  Jim Tressel's team?  For those of you that might feel that the late scores amounted to poor sportsmanship, I would beg to disagree.  The fake punt led to a score, no doubt but with 7 plus minutes left on the clock the game isn't over yet.  The play at the end of the game involved a run by Herron who had 38 yards in 6 carries for the game.  He happened to get 16 of them on that run.  Ohio State did benefit from an interception and two recovered fumbles in this game and they outgained Northwestern by just under 150 yards total.  The game was not close but it was not a beat-down.              

 

Penn State at Iowa: 

This is my game of the week.  In fact, I'll just say it now.  My game of the week every week is going to be Penn State against whomever.  They might even be in my game of the week next year on their bye week - who knows.  Yeah, I'm a homer.  

Anyway, Iowa has a good team.  They have a great running back in Shonn Greene and their defense is capable of shutting down a good offense.  I don't know what they were thinking though losing to Pittsburgh 21-20 and Illinois 27-24.  I can understand the losses to Northwestern and Michigan State for the reasons set forth above.  Here is a 5 and 4 team though that lost their four games by a total of 12 points.  That must be difficult to fathom for the Hawkeyes.  They have been in every game all year and they play a rough and tumble brand of football that is fun to watch.  

Iowa's offense averages over 29 points per game and their defense is ranked 8th in the nation allowing only 13.2 points per game.  If Penn State thinks for one second that this isn't going to be a tough, physical game then the Lions will soon learn the error of their ways.  

Penn State is also coming off a bye week after the Ohio State game.  Joe Pa has been working the team hard in preparation for this game.  Another advantage is that Penn State's next opponent (Indiana) is not a team that is apt to require a lot of early attention so Penn State should be focused solely on the Iowa game.  I have to say also that the BCS ranking should inspire Penn State. In fact I truly hope that the rankings piss off the team so much that Joe Pa couldn't hold them back if he wanted to.  

Penn State is ranked 9th on offense, averaging almost 42 points per game and 4th on defense, allowing 11.1 points per game.  Of course those stats were put together mainly by having a soft out of conference schedule in the early part of the year, including Oregon State of course.  Penn State does not always play well away from home.  They looked good in Wisconsin but they were not overly impressive either at Purdue or in Columbus.  The Syracuse game doesn't say anything - they are Orangemen after all and how fast can an orange run?  

It seems that everyone watched the Penn State / Ohio State game and now they are saying that Penn State has no offense.  Well, their offense did not look impressive in that game so that criticism might be deserved.  I hope that Penn State looks to the Iowa game to prove otherwise. 

If Penn State comes out fired up and wanting to make this a statement game then I think Iowa could be hurting by the end of this one.  If Penn State comes out though trying to play a vintage Joe Pa ball control offense and basically playing not to lose, then they can lose this one.  I think though that, between the polls seemingly snubbing Penn State and the player's commitment to reaching the National Championship game, Penn State comes out ready to take this one from the Hawkeyes.  I have so much confidence in this point assignment that I would probably be willing bet any one of you a whole penny that it comes out this way. 

Penn State 41 - Iowa 17.

How it turned out:  Iowa 24 - Penn State 23.

Well, what can I say about this game but that both teams got pretty much what they deserved.  While I am bitterly disappointed with the performance of the Nittany Lions, I was impressed by Iowa's play on both sides of the ball.  This was a game of two totally separate and distinct halves of football.  Other than a first series blunder by Penn State's Darryl Clark and the resulting short drive score for Iowa, Penn State basically shut down the Hawkeyes during the first half.  After the first half Penn State had given up 66 yards to Iowa, which included 25 yards given up to Shonn Greene during the first minute and a half of the game.  Additionally, Penn State had three sustained drives in the first half.  Two of those drives were turned away and led to field goals though by a stout iowa defense.  In fact I think that i can say that Iowa's defense looked damned good turning away those drives working the bend but don't break phiosophy perfectly. 

In the second half though Iowa was the team that put together sustained drives.  Shonn Greene found his way to amassing 117 yards on the game to give him his tenth game in a row eclipsing the 100 yard mark.  Stanzi had a very good game, completing 15 of 25 passes for 175 yards with one TD and a pic.  On the other hand, Penn State's offense had trouble getting on track.  With the wind between 20 and 30 MPH, Darryl Clark was not having the success that Stanzi enjoyed.  It doesn't help either when your safeties blow pass coverage on a receiver for an easy score and then top that performance off by gathering an interference penalty on a 3rd and ten to sustain an Iowa drive for them.  That is why they play the game though.  

It occurs to me that Darryl Clark has been looking progressively worse over the last few games for the Lions.  Yes, i understand that those games have been against teams that have very strong defenses.   Against Iowa, Clark was 9 of 23 for 86 yards, no touchdowns and a big pic that killed a late drive.  He also had a fumble on the third play from scrimmage that probably should have been a safety and resulted in iowa getting their first possession at Penn State's 25 yard line.  Against Ohio State Darryl was 12 for 20 for 120 yards. 

He is there because he had been making good decisions, he was being careful with the ball and he has the ability to run the ball well either scrambling or on a planned quarterback draw.  We didn't see much running by Clark though during the Iowa game.  I would imagine that the coaches were trying to protect him after he got dinged up during the Ohio State game.  The commentators even mentioned that Clark was throwing everything high going into the wind during warm-ups.  You would think that someone else on the field might have noticed the same thing and maybe either leaned more toward the running game, which was working, or maybe even pulled Clark in favor of Devlin after it was obvious that Darryl was having problems with the wind in the first quarter.  Just for the record, Penn State gained 180 yards on the ground to Iowa's 101 yards.  Don't get me wrong.  Clark is a good quarterback.  I wouldn't want to damage his psyche by pulling him either.  Then again, if Devlin wasn't having the problems with his passes sailing on him, which does more damage, to have a bad game or to sit out a game for the benefit of the team?

I do not want to take anything away from Iowa with the above paragraph.  They played a great game and they deserved the win.  Both teams had two turn-overs and were hurt and helped equally by them.  I do believe though that the Penn State coaches really went out of their way to protect Clark, with Williams taking several snaps from center.  Overall they did fairly well with the gadget plays, especially early.  I am saying though that the best pass I saw coming from a player wearing white yesterday came from Williams as opposed to Clark.  I am also saying that Penn State really has their work cut out for them if they want to get back on track before the Michigan State game.                                  

Please check out these other Big Ten Blogs.  They offer differing views and analysis and they always put up some great picks.

Seabass has a blog here:  Seabass

And IHawk-08's blog is here:  IHawk