The Packers are making a defensive switch from the 4-3 scheme to the more challenging and sophisticated 3-4.  Their linebackers are going to be put under enormous pressure this year, and with some of the offenses in the NFC North, this makes the Green Bay Packers' defense one to watch in 2009.

Being a Steeler fan means that I've watched the 3-4 defense since Cowher was named the head coach in 1991.  We've been blessed here with great linebackers for virtually that entire time, but since the philosophy has never wavered, the Steelers have always been able to draft their type of guys that fit the scheme.  The first year of any kind of major philosophical switch is a key one, but this one might be the most challenging of them all.

In 2008, the Packers fell back into the pack with a 6-10 record, one year after reaching the NFC Championship Game.  It was really the injuries that crushed the Packers defense, because once the injuries mounted, failure upon failure hit this team.  They fired their defensive coordinator because they needed a fall guy, and the new one (Dom Capers) is a long-time 3-4 proponent.  One reason?  Capers - along with LB coach Kevin Greene and secondary coach Darren Perry - are all Cowher/Steeler alums. 

The 3-4 becomes such a difficult defense because it, more than the 4-3, requires that all seven front defenders do their job correctly, make the correct reads and play their position exactly to plan without regard of what anyone else does.  When this works well - in New England, Baltimore or Pittsburgh - you see the results.  When it fails, it usually does so in dramatic and explosive fashion.  A bad 3-4 play can easily take a normal 3-4 yard run and have it turn into a 11-12 yard one.  It can take a well-defensed pass defense and allow a big gainer or worse.  It's this tricky nature of the defense - the fact that all 11 men really do have to be constantly on the same page - that creates a very small margin of error in this defense.  When a team does it's job well, the 3-4 creates opportunities in the pass pressure that a 4-3 simply cannot match.  The 4-3's pass rush scheme is usually straight forward - the edge rushers are fast and get upfield quickly, and the two interior guys put forth a huge push and collect blockers.  The 3-4 allows defensive coordinators the luxury of changing sides, overloading a side with pressure (often resulting in television announcers claiming the move is a 'blitz' even though only 4 guys rush the ball) and can wreak havoc upon the offensive reads because they simply aren't sure where the pressure will come from.

In the Packers favor they have a long-time 3-4 coach in Dom Capers.  As a head coach he never quite tasted a ton of success, but as a defensive coordinator he's great.  With him he brings coaching talent that understands the 3-4 game, and knows how to work within it.  Plus, the Packers have drafted well at LB, and this defense gives them the ability to work wonders with that athletic talent.

On the flip side, however, the Packers play 4 games against teams that figure to have already top offenses in the run game (Vikings) and one that ought to be far better because of the new QB talent (Chicago).  The Lions, too, will probably feature as much of a run-heavy offense as they can.  This means that the Packers will be put to the ultimate test this year.  If that 3-4 scheme isn't clicking by the time the Minny Vikes come calling (with or without Favre), the Vikings are going to run all over them courtesy of All Day.  If it's not clicking, then Cutler will have his way with the Pack's D (with or without quality receivers).  Plus, the Packers have to play the AFC North this year, a division that has 3 teams that figure to have pretty solid or better offenses (Cincy, Pittsburgh & Baltimore).  That's no easy task for a new defense.

For Packer faithful, it has the potential to be a long year if the scheme's complexities aren't mastered quickly.  But if Capers et al can work some magic, it may reinvigorate a team, and put the Packers back solidly into playoff discussion.  As I said, it bears watching carefully.

The list of ex-coaches sitting on the sidelines this year is awfully long, awfully talented, and will likely cast a lengthy shadow upon the entire NFL this year and into the next off-season.  It's generally accepted any more that there will be signficant coach turnover in the NFL.  Every year, websites and bloggers discuss which coaches are on the 'hot seat' and speculate that without a stellar season, that coach will lose his job.  With the cadre of talent on the sidelines, I would think that some owners will look long and hard at the talent patrolling the sidelines of his (losing) team, and the list of coaches waiting for a call, and pick up the phone - both to fire the current guy and inquire about the other guy.

Mike Shanahan.  In what was perhaps the most surprising termination, Shanahan got the boot after his Broncos imploded last year, losing 3 straight games to lose the division and lose out on the chance at the playoffs.  That implosion was laid at Shanahan's feet - he couldn't coach his guys to a win (or motivate them) and his GM duties were being questioned more and more each and every year.  Denver had a great offense under Shanny, but that defense was woeful, and seemed to get worse each year. 

There's no doubt that Shanahan could immediately provide a boost to a struggling franchise.  He's seen as an offensive wizard, and his body of work certainly supports that.  Yet, an owner looking at Shanahan will have to deal with that ego, and his desire to run the entire ship.  Some owners won't like that, and so the list of owners that would give Shanny a hard look are probably slimmer.  That doesn't mean he won't soon be an NFL coach.  Shanahan will likely be one of the first guys called by an owner looking to stabilize the franchise.  Working out the details won't take too long; Shanahan himself is on record saying he wants to return to the NFL one day.

Mike Holmgren.  Holmgren has said that he needs a break, needs a chance to step away from the game for a while.  But most people expect him to one day come back; once he rests, relaxes and rebuilds the energy necessary to coach, he'll likely get a long, hard look.  Holmgren has a lengthy body of work that is virtually all positive.  He's won a Super Bowl, appeared in another one, and has done wonders with teams like Seattle.  For the Seahawks to become nationally relevant is perhaps the most impressive feat of his career. 

Holmgren, like Shanny, will probably want more control over the football operations.  Again, that's a tough nut to crack, but in Holmgren's case, I think that if he was working with the right sort of GM, the partnership would work well.  Holmgren, like Shanahan, is an offensive minded coach, and will want a certain type of player on his team to get the most out of his offense.

Jon Gruden.  Gruden's firing came at a surprising time, but I don't think that it was much of a surprise overall.  He's been wearing thin in Tampa, and perhaps the chance was necessary.  Gruden brings an intense, fiery personality to the sidelines, and while he may be difficult to relate to (among other coaches and his players) that doesn't mean he's a good coach.  He knows how to get the most of his players, and puts them into a position to win.  Had Oakland (re: Al Davis) been a little wiser, perhaps that franchise might not have fallen upon their current hard times.  Gruden was the kind of coach that could stand up to Davis (perhaps the reason for his firing, then) and gotten production.  His pass-heavy offense is a tough one to defense.

Gruden may or may not return.  He may find TV work easier, more fun, and better for him than returning to the sidelines.  But I think that his personality won't let him stay away from the sidelines too long.  Listen to him carefully on MNF this year - the criticisms he levels may indicate whether the burn to coach is still there.  I would think the first time he says 'well, this is what I would have done' you have a signal that Gruden is thinking ahead.

Tony Dungy.  Of the ex-coaches, Dungy is the only one in which the chances of him returning are virtually zero.  Still, one never knows - it might take a quiet conversation or the perfect situation.  My guess with Dungy is that if he returns to football, it will be either in an advisory position or as a GM.  I think he'd make a terrific GM, by the way.  But, as I said, the chances of him returning are less than 1%.  But he's out there, and I'm sure that inquiries will delicately come his way from time to time.

Bill Cowher.  Now, Cowher is the only really defensive minded coach that's out there, and he too has stated that he wants to return to the game.  But in Cowher's case, I think that he's going to be very careful about it.  It will take possibly more money than any of the previously mentioned coaches; rumor has it Cowher wants no less than $8 million a year to coach, and one thinks he'll demand $10 a year.  He's a difficult, stubborn man to deal with because in all things its his way or no way.  But, he's easily the best motivator of the group, and relates extremely well to his players.  Cowher most likely won't end up in the AFC North - no matter how many rumors swirl about Cleveland - because he'll see it as a betrayal to the Rooneys.  Even though he was upset with them regarding his contract, it's obvious that he's not all that interested in crossing swords with them.

Personally, I think that Cowher will likely be lured to a southern team, and perhaps next year.  If I were John Fox or Jack Del Rio, I'd be worried a little about my job.  The Carolina job would be almost tailor-made for Cowher; he's moved to Carolina, obviously put down roots there, would not face the Steelers except once every three years (or potentially in the Super Bowl) and the Panthers are already built along the lines of Cowher's liking. 

Speculation is wonderful, and of course no one knows exactly what's going to happen.  All four of these coaches will be sought out - and Dungy will get some questions, too - by various owners who want to get back to winning ways.  I wouldn't surprise me one bit to see one or more of these guys back in the league in 2010 or 2011.  It really wouldn't.  The thing is that all of these guys have solid track records, have won Super Bowls, have dealt with Super Bowl pressure and expectations, and have generally all been highly successful head coaches.  Those facts alone virtually guarantee that they will get a job at some point.  One things for sure - the 'hot seat' for coaches is made all that hotter because these guys aren't currently working.  The constant discussion regarding troubled coaches will quickly rise to the level of a roar because of these talents waiting in the wings.

I hate July - I really do (in one way, at least).  The start of football season, training cams, and all that is SO close you feel like you can reach out and touch it.  Fans like myself just can't wait to get things going.  Granted, all of August is pretty boring, too, because you're looking at training camps, scrimmages, practices and wondering how good or bad your team will be in the coming year.  You're hoping that major injuries are avoided, and you watch usually bad pre-season games because it's football.  Let's face it - there's no good reason to watch a pre-season game, especially the first one.  The starters play for a series, or two at the most.  The offensive sets are pure vanilla.  The defensive sets are all the base sets - the ones that everyone has seen and has known about forever.  Those first games are primarily about venting frustration - getting to hit someone else for a change - and to start building rhythm and chemistry.  Actual game play is pretty ragged, and once you hit the second half...yikes.  Choppy play, strange happenings. 

Not so curiously, most local newspapers - like the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - cover pre-season games like they were the Super Bowl.  Why?  Well, for one thing the football beat writers are probably thrilled to have something to write about again.  Plus, they know how high interest runs in the Steelers here in town.  So they are guaranteed an audience.  People being tuning in to talk-radio a little more frequently, and the topic of conversation is Steelers 24-7.  The coverage is pretty predictable.  There will be 5-6 stories about how the Steelers and the coaching staff are doing everything they can to avoid a Super Bowl Hangover.  There will be about 10 stories on the rookie draft picks - how they are doing, where they are struggling, where they are showing promise (or even improvement...as training camp wears on).  There will be 3-4 stories about position battles, and the cut-down day that results from those position battles.  Every year there's at least 2 stories that are supposed to make you "feel good" about some player - how he overcame this or that or whatever.  Of course, somewhere near the end of training camp will come the GIANT SPECIAL EDITION where all the Steeler writers will sit down and write up their own predictions.  Of course everyone will want to get that.  And then finally, after a long, hot and brutal August, we get the start of the regular season.  FINALLY!

Pre-season games always hold some interest for me, even though I said above that they're boring.  I like to see the players the Steelers drafted get into game action.  Most of the rooks don't know much, and it's obvious, but the joy in playing the game is good enough for me.  I also like to watch a couple of key players, to see how they are progressing.  I think this year many eyes will be focused on Lawrence Timmons and Limas Sweed.  Timmons is moving into the starting role held by Larry Foote for the past 5 years.  As an athlete, he's an upgrade.  The coaches believe in him.  Now it's time to see whether he's another Steeler LB wizard or not.  As for Sweed, after the rookie year he had it would be hard to fall back.  But I guess that danger always exists; no one wants to see a 2nd round draft pick turn bust.  It doesn't hurt as much, but still hurts.  Sweed is going to face pressure this year to improve.  We can only wait, and wait, and criticize later.

Yes, July sucks because there's not much to talk about.  I mean, how many blog posts can you write about the upcoming season?  I wrote a post yesterday based upon a report that Niners coach Singletary made first round pick Crabtree cry.  The fact that it was reported goes to show how little actual news is out there; the fact I wrote a post about it also shows how little I actually have to talk about, too.  Let's face it, I'm writing a post whining about how long July is because I have nothing to talk about!!

So, I started to read the story, headlined by the news that Fenway Park in Boston would host the 2010 Winter Classic.  My immediate first thought was that the Bruins would be playing the Canadiens in that game.  I was mildly surprised when Philly was the opponent.  And then I read the comments...

I like the concept of the Winter Classic.  The first one, in Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium, was not only a sensational game, but seeing a football stadium packed with 72,000 people to watch a hockey game was pretty cool, too.  And the snow - that may have made the event.  For anyone who played hockey as a kid, playing hockey in the snow has got to provide the same kind of thrill that playing football in a driving rain did for me!  It was just more fun.  Not exactly prime weather, but fun.  I think. 

Anyway, the NHL has a good thing going.  There were some sour grapes about how NBC dictated that Philly was the opponent rather than Washington (at least according to the comments) which in reality makes absolutely no sense to me.  Why wouldn't NBC want the Washington Capitals, with Alexander Ovechkin & Co, on national television?  Philly is a better television draw than Washington?  Really?  Anyway, the Bruins and Flyers game will be a very good one because both teams are expecting to have great seasons.  It will be a highlight game, and one worth watching.

I agree with some commentators that sometimes the NHL does things that are beyond dumb.  No league goes quite so far to shoot itself in the foot than the NHL.  However, they occasionally pull out a brilliant decision, and the Winter Classic is turning into a brilliant decision.  I'd rather watch hockey than some second-tier bowl game between two teams I know nothing about and from conferences I ignore any time. 

I did wonder why the Habs weren't the opposition.  The blood fued between Boston and Montreal goes back an awfully long way, and the teams have knocked each other out of the playoffs in successive years now.  Nothing fuels hatred and rivalry as beating the other team when it matters most.  Now, what boils down to a one-game exhibition doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of a long season, but it would have been awfully special to pit the Habs and Bruins in this game.  Maybe NBC wanted a US v US game to keep their viewership happy, but the one thing about most NHL fans is that they understand the intensity that Canada feels regarding their six teams.  NHL fans would have "gotten it" with a game between Boston and Montreal.  So while I'm a little saddened that Montreal wasn't tabbed for this game, it's not like I'm going to complain that much.  I will enjoy Boston and Philly playing in Fenway.  I think it'll be fun!

Pro Football Talk (.com) is reporting that during a recent OTA, coach Mike Singletary almost made first round draft choice Michael Crabtree cry.  The report centered on Crabtree's broken foot, and how he was out jogging.  Singletary reportedly had a "discussion" with Crabtree about this, and according to the report, Crabtree grew "teary-eyed" because he wanted to practice.  Hmmm.

Singletary is rapidly becoming known as a coach who's more in your face than any other in the NFL.  It matches his playing style - that constant intensity.  The constant NFL Films picture of Singletary's face when he's readying himself for a play, and the blazing look in his eyes, ought to be a good predictor for what Singletary is like patrolling the sidelines.  Can that hyper-intensity bring out the best in the Niners, or will it backfire?  For a while, it'll work I think.  But that's not really here nor there.

The biggest problem with first round draft picks is that changing roles from BMOC to "just another rookie" can be confusing.  It's made worse when the player is in a prima donna position (WRs being the biggest prima donnas on most teams).  Now take a guy like Singletary, who accepts nothing except for total intensity all of the time, and you have a recipe for Crabtree to be hurt.  Of course, growing teary-eyed just because he got yelled at for jogging doesn't exactly fit the profile of a football player, but let's not judge him too harshly yet.  Learning to fit in as a rookie on a football team has got to be one of the hardest things to do.  You have to learn a brand new, extremely complex playbook.  You have coaches that are more demanding than ever.  Your film study is through the roof, meetings all of the time, and pressure unlike anything you've felt before.  In Texas Tech, Crabtree was isolated - in college terms and I'm sure on his own team.  He was a star, a super star, and heard it all of the time.  Now, the most applicable words he'll hear is "what have you done for me lately?"  I would say that takes one hell of an adjustment, wouldn't you?

Crabtree will probably turn into a pretty solid receiver in the NFL.  Most receivers that are drafted that high turn out - there are always exceptions so don't list them - but in the main, it's a position in which making a high draft pick often works out to some degree.  Not everyone is Randy Moss, so drafting Crabtree does not automatically mean he'll be an instant success.  Some guys simply take longer, and require more work and study.  For a guy like Crabtree, he has his work cut out for him.

As I understand it, playing receiver in the NFL is a very challenging business because of the read and recognition element to the position.  When defenses disguise coverages, they are not only targeting the quarterback.  Sometimes they are targeting the receiving corps, too.  So Crabtree will be faced with having to see and adapt to something that isn't on paper.  Nor was it something he would have much done in TT - there, he just ran the longest and fastest.  It wasn't so much of a read & react offense as it was intricate routes designed to take advantage of lesser athletic defenses.  Learning that the position of a corner will dictate a route, or the quarterback's first look, is something that takes time and reptition. 

Crabtree has better get some thicker skin.  The combination of a blistering head coach and the demands of the position will combine to create far more pressure than he's ever felt before.  He needs to get tougher mentally if he hopes to succeed.  Maybe that was Singletary's idea.  We don't know.  We can't know.  But we can sure speculate.