Are you a fan of football? If you are, this weekend is everything that you've been waiting for. If you're a fan of one of the remaining 8 teams, this is a weekend filled with nervous anticipation, heightened belief in your team and soaring emotions - both high and low.
First, the top 8 teams in "Power Ranking" order:
1. San Diego Chargers. At 14-2, with LT, and with the beast Shawn Merriman leading the defense...how can you not pick the Bolts as the top choice?
2. Baltimore Ravens. At 13-3, with Ray Lewis and Steve McNair (he of the 4th quarter heroics), doesn't this ranking make sense?
3. New England Patriots. Bill Belichick & Tom Brady. That's all you need to know here.
4. Chicago Bears. Which Rex will show up?
5. New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees and Reggie Bush bring an excitement to a long suffering fan base, and hope to an entire devastated region.
6. Indianapolis Colts. Which defense will the Colts bring to Baltimore? And can Peyton really lead his offense to points against the menacing Ravens D?
7. Philadelphia Eagles. Lito Sheppard's injury spells trouble for these birds.
8. Seattle Seahawks. Injuries have decimated this team, but Hasselbeck and Alexander remain formidable foes
The 8 remaining teams are the true contenders for the 2006 NFL crown. They have been the best teams through the year, mostly consistent from one week to the next, and all 8 have super stars to go along with stellar teams surrounding them. Teams like Philly and New Orleans bring huge momentum into their games, while teams like the Pats and Ravens bring experience and defense. The Chargers have LT and have wielded his skills lethally. The Bears have a defense second to none in the NFL. Indy has Peyton. Talk about great teams and great potential. But only four teams will survive.
NFC: Chicago defeats Seattle. Too bad for Seattle - they just have too many injuries right now, and Chicago is going to design a game plan to protect Rex Grossman as much as they can. Chicago is going to run out the oldest football game plan in the book: run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. They should succeed in doing both things - Seattle has never regained the same level of confidence or play from their offensive line after losing G Steve Hutchison. Sure, Hasselbeck and Alexander are now healthy and ready to go, but Hasselbeck's receivers keep falling prey to injuries, and passing in brutal January Chicago weather isn't a typical recipe for success. The Seahawks undersized defense will be hard-pressed to stop a running game planning on utter domination. Although Seattle will probably keep this game close, they won't keep it close enough to give Josh Brown a chance to escape Soldier Field with a win.
New Orleans defeats Philly. This is a tough game for me - I'm rooting for the Eagles, but I'm also rooting for the Saints. New Orleans legacy in the playoffs is simply awful, but they've never had a team quite like this one. New Orleans has never had such offensive weaponry on their side, and the coaching staff has them playing fantastic football. The Eagles best chance for victory here is to ramp up an offensive game plan heavy on ball control options; keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines is a critical issue in this game. The Eagles defense - depleted after Sheppard's injury - won't be able to force enough stops to win a shootout. So the Eagles defense has to hope that the offense can keep the Saints off of the field. But New Orleans has quick-strike capability, and their offense will be geared for a big game. I expect a close game, but I think in the end New Orleans has just a touch too much firepower for the Eagles, and will waltz into the NFC Championship Game.
The Colts were buoyed by their big win against Kansas City last week when everyone expected LJ to have a field day against them. When the Colts stuffed Kansas City's running game, everyone not in those blue uniforms registered some measure of surprise. Doing that for another game, against another offense geared more towards mashing than finesse, represents another supreme challenge. And then Indy's offense has to face perhaps the game's meanest, most menacing defense. The Ravens regard physical domination as the number one key in any game - stopping the offense is secondary to beating them up. The Colts offense is well-known for its timing and rhythm; facing a defense capable of beating them up - and thereby destroying any measure of rhythm - will prove to be too much of a challenge. Plus, Peyton Manning's playoff performances don't suggest he's capable of leading his team to a huge win in such difficult conditions. Hell, the 3 picks he threw last week could be a harbinger of what's in store for him and the Colts this weekend. The Ravens offense is led now by Steve McNair, and there's one thing that this guy has been able to do his entire career - win late. He's at his best late in games, and if the Ravens are somehow behind...he's even more dangerous. The Ravens will win in a grind-it-out type of game, led by McNair's accurate fourth quarter passing and their defense simply bludgeoning Indy into submission.
Finally, the Pats take on San Diego. This is the weekend's most intriguing game, and the Chargers simply could not have gotten a worse opponent for this game. They are facing insane levels of expectation after posting a regular season 14-2 record, and have a record setting running back in LT. Philip Rivers performed far better than even the wildest hopes, and that has fanned the flames even more. But many things are working against San Diego. First and foremost, they have to play against a defense that will be by far the most difficult the Chargers will have seen this year. The Pats game plan will look to shut down LT and force the Chargers into third and mid-range or third and long, and then Belichick's defensive genius will play out. Philip Rivers has to understand that he's going to see defenses he's never seen before, and how he reacts to that situation will be a tremendous key. Next, Tom Brady is having the kind of season that brings night sweats to people - he's taking a group of receivers that would be third or fourth receivers on other teams, and making them look like a solid group. They'll never be compared to the great tandems in NFL history, but with Brady's accuracy, his ability to spread the ball and his coolness under fire, the Pats have a chance. And then there's the expectations of playing at home - how will that affect a young team basically retooled after their 2004 playoff experiences? Finally, and this could be a critical factor here...how will Marty Schottenheimer react? Schottenheimer teams have fared poorly in the playoffs - his track record is long and proven. His teams do not win in the playoffs, even when they have great football teams. You could possibly understand his failures while in Cleveland. But his KC failures were harder to explain. Those were better teams than his Browns units were. Now, he's again facing huge pressure in San Diego to try and burst that bubble about him. But to defeat the Pats?
There are a lot of factors that suggest the Pats will win this game. But, here's the thing. No Marty Schottenheimer team in the past has had this great of a defense *and* this great of an offense. Still, Chargers fans have to watch the offensive game plan early on - if he goes into some kind of offensive shell, refusing to allow Rivers any leeway, and stubbornly holding onto the running game, begin worrying. That's exactly what Bill Belichick is hoping to lure the Chargers into doing - because he knows that the Chargers will end up facing those third down situations with many yards to go, and then he can unleash his genius in ways that'll make the Chargers offensive brain trust cringe. If Schottenheimer releases the reins on the offense early, allowing Rivers to try and pass on first downs and basically working to call plays to keep the Pats defense off-balance, you can relax to some extent. I think the Chargers are the better team here, but coaching is going to play a far bigger role in this game than any other this weekend. Either the Chargers are going to open the playbook and win, or they are going to go into a shell, and lose. Personally, I am starting to think that the Chargers will win this game...but it wouldn't surprise me one little bit if the Pats move on.
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