It's safe to say that the teams that finally end up drafting the 2006 class "Big Three" quarterbacks are going to be exciting, along with their fans. At the very least, the fans are going to push hard to see their new "star" quarterback hit the ground running and lead their teams back into the playoffs like Ben Roethlisberger did for the Steelers. That's where you need to slam on the brakes big time, and take a step back and think about this. Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer are the AFC North's premier quarterbacks right now. Palmer led the Bengals into their first playoff appearance in over a decade, while Roethlisberger only led the Steelers to the Super Bowl title in his second year. Palmer was a 2003 draft product; Roethlisberger was an 04 product. But, Roethlisberger's performance should not be weighed heavily. Instead, the progress that Palmer made should probably be the blueprint. Whether or not the teams drafting the "big three" have the patience and wherewithal to allow that is something else entirely. As in Roethlisberger's case, though, injuries can force the hand of any team, so in some aspects its a wait and see approach. There are some issues revolving around this year's Big Three. The most athletically gifted - Vince Young - is the rawest talent among the three QBs. Worse, he worked in a run-heavy, shotgun-based attack at Texas, and that style of offense just doesn't cut it in the NFL. He was able to use his athleticism to outrun lesser gifted defenders; in the NFL, defensive linemen have been known to put up amazing 40 times. Despite what Michael Vick can and has done, Young should not expect to have that same success. Like Vick, he'll have to learn how to become an NFL passer; something that Vick is still struggling with and this after 5 seasons in the NFL! His upside (athletically) is very high. But there are even more lingering doubts about his head - the Wonderlic fracas included. How will he adapt when he's not even the best athlete on his team? How will he react when teams goad him into attempting to run, yet converge on him with a speed and violence unlike anything he's seen before? He has to use his arm to loosen up even bad NFL defenses - without it, he's just going to get smashed. Matt Leinart is another intriguing possibility at QB. Some observers think that he has the mental abilities and fortitude to waltz into a starting situation as a rookie in the NFL and succeed. Those same observers look at Roethlisberger's Steelers and compare Leinart to Ben, and think that Matt has the right blend of intangibles, leadership and smarts to get the job done. It's only his physical skills that are somewhat questioned, in that his arm strength is average at best. The NFL requires its quarterbacks to make the hard throws - the 15-yard out across the field, for instance. Should Leinart not be able to make that throw... Worse, Leinart is going to see defenses that look like they're straight out of a nightmare. Should the Jets draft him, he'll get a double dose of it when he faces New England twice. Don't think for a minute that Belichick won't dream up something to get the rookie all afluster - that's his stock in trade, and he's done a damn fine job of it up in New England. Finally, Jay Cutler is the least-known of the three, primarily because he played for bad Vanderbilt teams for a long time. But scouts and GMs are taking notice - he has an athleticism that is required, a good head and serious arm strength. Despite seeing highly athletic defenses in the SEC, it's likely that Cutler has never seen the complexity that he'll see in the NFL. He might be the best suited for long-term success in the NFL, but as a rookie he'd be nothing short of meat. Pure and simple. Why? Well, quarterback in the NFL is a tremendously difficult position. 16 games. 16 defenses...but more to the point, 16 defenses specifically designed to try and take away what you do best, and force you to do what you do worst. These guys have never seen the disguised coverages like they'll see in the NFL. They've never seen smart, saavy defenders work to bait a quarterback into thinking a particular throw is open, and then waltz in front of the pass and make the pick. They've never had to make that many reads, that quickly and that perfectly before. In college, there are reads to make, but not quite to the same level. Then, in many cases, there's the offenses themselves. NFL offenses are brutally difficult to comprehend. Many of them require that the QB and his skill players are on the same page - reading the same defense in the same way. The WRs will alter their routes based upon the defense that they read; they assume the quarterback is seeing the same exact thing, and is altering the routes in his head. That takes experience - nothing else is a suitable substitute. Finally, QBs are leaders on and off of the field. They are the ones that take the offensive reins and run the ship. Rookies are hard to follow as a general rule. I mean, what 10-year veteran in the NFL really wants to listen to some punk-assed kid just out of college all ego-driven because he's the number one pick? Most of these guys are not ready to step into that role as a rookie. Some can do it through force of personality or through their on-field performance. But in most cases, that leadership role is built through time - not by their status as the number one draft pick on a particular squad. Finally, compounding all of this is the fact that if you are drafting high in the draft, it means you've earned it! Your team has problems. Look at the Houston Texans. On a different team, with a quality offensive line, David Carr might be ranked among the game's best QBs. But he's not - frankly, no one is sure whether Carr is a great, good, average or worse quarterback because he spends much of his Sunday afternoons running for his life. So, the Jets, Saints, Titans and others are looking at the Big Three to save the franchise. And they are drafting that high...why? Because they sucked! That's why - and despite what goes on in free agency, it's damned difficult to go from worst to first in the NFL unless in the prior year your team was decimated by injury or just blew the season (2003 Steelers for blowing a season, 2004 Panthers & 2005 Packers for injury woes). NFL teams drafting one of the Big Three should do it smart. Plant that rook on his ass on the sidelines. Give him a hat, clipboard and a set of headphones. Let him listen to the coaches coach the starters. Let him work in the film room reviewing plays for a year, learning to read defenses and recongizing what's on the field in front of him. Let him work with the second team or the scout team to keep sharp, but make sure that the first year is dedicated to learning. Most teams that follow this route see their QB get into the starting role in a far more polished, prepared way than throwing the rookie to the wolves. Ben Roethlisberger got away with it in 2004 because the Steelers defense was dynamite, their offensive line was among the best in the game, they ran the ball 60% of the time and Roethlisberger's playbook was tiny. AND...as it turned out, Roethlisberger's approach that year was "first read is bad, tuck & run." It was his athletic ability that allowed him to escape, not his ability to read defenses. Last year you saw a totally different quarterback - one that turned Champ Bailey inside and out again in the AFCCG. And you also saw a 2nd-year player making his first start in a Super Bowl, and it reminded you of what a young QB can and very often will do in the NFL - screw it up. Eli Manning was thrust into the starting role late in 2004 because of injury and complete ineffectiveness of the Giants' veteran QBs. He didn't do much of anything at all, but later in 2005 you saw what the Giants expected to see out of Eli. Having those 16 games under his belt, that learning, and that year of critical experience made a huge difference in his play. Look at Peyton Manning's rookie season - sure, he threw for a lot of yards, but heaved up pick after pick and the Colts were what...3-13? Something like that. So, for all of you guys who want to see the Big Three start in their rookie year...you might want to rethink that. You might want to see them get a year of seasoning under their belt before taking the reins. You might want to think what defensive-minded coaches in the NFL will do to them in October and November and December, when playoff games and positioning are on the line. And you might want to wait for another year, painful though it may be, so that when that would-be star walks onto the field as the true starting quarterback, you'll be more able to expect great things rather than merely hope for them...