It used to be that a draft was only analyzed after 5 or so years. The theory went that young collegiate players needed all five of those years to fully realize their potential. But, the NFL has ratcheted up the pressure to unimaginable levels lately, and those 5 years are dropping to 3. You get 3 years to prove yourself. After that...you're a liability to the cap, and susceptible to getting cut or demoted. That being said...here's a look back at the 2001 & 2003 draft (5 & 3 years)... 2001 Draft 1. Michael Vick - Atlanta. Well, Mike Vick certainly is exciting. He draws a crowd, and can make plays with his feet. But, he's not been nearly as strong as a passer, and as a quarterback that's his primary role on the team. Still, Vick has not been a first-round flop by any stretch of the imagination. Perhaps what he needs is to have an offensive system with some consistency...which is what he's finally getting. 2. Leonard Davis - Arizona. Don't hear much about offensive tackles unless they are world-beaters. Since you don't hear much about Davis...one wonders if he's a world-beater or just a very very good, solid and capable tackle. 3. Gerard Warren - Cleveland. Now with Denver, which doesn't speak too highly for the overall #3. But, Butch Davis was canned for a great many things, bad drafts among them. The team's first pick is supposed to be a stalwart for years to come. Not so with Warren, who's been capable...but not worthy of a #1 pick. 4. Justin Smith - Cincinnati. He's had an up and down career in Cincy - more ups than downs, but hasn't turned into a defensive menace. But he is someone you have to game plan for every week, and his motor is fantastic. A solid pick here; he's Cincy's D-line anchor, and that's what you want out of your first selection. 5. LaDanian Tomlinson - San Diego. Except for Vick, teams drafting 2 through 4 are probably kicking themselves for not drafting LT. He is among the game's very best producers at RB, and on a team that has been notoriously up and down. 6. Richard Seymour - New England. The Pats' best defensive lineman, and a huge factor in their defensive game plan. He is exactly what you want from your first pick - a star. 7. Andre Carter - San Francisco. He's bounced around now, and has not been all that productive. Bordering on "flop" territory here... 8. David Terrell - Chicago. Flop. Plain and simple. 9. Koren Robinson - Seattle. He could be a flop, or he could still be a work in progress. Sometimes players need more years to get settled into the rigors on the NFL, and Robinson is just one example. Having drug and alcohol problems makes it very difficult to rate the player. 10. Jamal Reynolds - Green Bay. Don't know much about him...which can't be a good sign! Picks 11 through 31 feature some real stars in the NFL - Reggie Wayne, Todd Heap, Nate Clemons, Casey Hampton and Santana Moss. For those teams picking in the later rounds, the ultra-star isn't available. But, judging by this list, you could have one hell of an offense, and a very solid defense with just those players named... Now, for the 2003 draft... 1. Carson Palmer - Cincinnati. The Bengals finally made a fantastic pick. Barring further knee injuries, Palmer is going to be one of the NFL's brightest stars for a long time to come... 2. Charles Rodgers - Detroit. A big-time flop here, and has been injured. It's too bad, really - Detroit has spent first round picks on bad receiver after bad receiver... 3. Andre Johnson - Houston. One of the Texans' only bright spots... 4. Dewayne Robertson - New York Jets. Who? 5. Terence Newman - Dallas. Not quite there yet... 6. Jonathan Sullivan - New Orleans. Maybe its just the Saints - but who's he again? 7. Byron Leftwich - Jacksonville. If you're a Jags fan, you've gotta be pleased with this pick. Maybe Leftwich will never reach the highest pantheon of NFL QBs, but in him you have an above-average quarterback who's also a fantastic leader. In that, you cannot go wrong. 8. Jordan Gross - Carolina. Based on the fact that Carolina's run offense has been very good for the past few years... 9. Kevin Williams - Minnesota. Not a household name. 10. Terrell Suggs - Baltimore. Has had some impact for the Birdies... Picks 11 through 32 feature these players on the rise: Troy Polamalu, Larry Johnson, Wilis McGahee and Rex Grossman. McGahee and Grossman have some question marks, but they are generally starters and leaders when not injured. LJ is turning into an absolute monster in KC, and Polamalu is, well...Polamalu. Sometimes rookie seasons are ones to remember - Ben Roethlisberger proved that. In the 2005 draft, these players made an immediate impact for their teams: Ronnie Brown (RB, Miami), Cedric Benson (RB, Chicago), Cadillac Williams (RB, Tampa), DeMarcus Ware (OLB, Dallas) and Heath Miller (TE, Pittsburgh). In two weeks, the NFL will be drafting its 2006 class. Most experts expect the Texans to draft Reggie Bush, but it gets murky from there. There are a lot of potential changes in the draft, and names are zooming up and down, based upon predicted trades, potential trades and general player movement. What's critical to remember, though, is that the NFL is slowly realizing that character plays a tremendous role in first round draft picks. Players have to have strong character to move into a starting (or significant playing time) role in their rookie season. The game is far faster, far harder to learn and play, and the playbooks are insane. Only the most talented, and most grounded players, are going to be able to move into a key role early in their career. Teams with saavy coaches and personnel staffs draft players with the right blend of talent and character, and mold the players into the team player they want. Belichick and Cowher are two such coaches who demand high character guys more than anything else. Since the NFL has seen the resurgence of the Steelers and the recent dominance of the Patriots, its a safe assumption that the traits the Patriots and Steelers emphasize will be given more than just lip service at other franchises. When all the dust has settled and smoke has cleared, pundits will immediately rate the draft based upon predicted actions of players. But, as you can see from 3 or 5 years out, its hard to rate a draft until you see the player in action, on the field. Drafting players is an inexact science at best. Tests like the Wonderlic are incredibly important, and there are teams that require players to take their own tests - the Steelers are one such team. Players go through interview after interview with scouts and coaches. The teams are looking to see what kind of man they are going to get - after all, the athletic talents are evident on tape. But in today's NFL, everyone is an amazing athlete, and athletic talent alone won't get the job done. Players need to prepare harder and longer, work out constantly, and must blend into the locker room easily to become integral components of their team. When the name is finally announced, for most teams you can assume (for first rounders especially) that the team has probably spent well over 200 hours dissecting that player alone. And, as my review shows...that's still no guarantee of success!