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AFC North (pre-pre-pre season preview)
Friday, June 9, 2006, 10:34 AM EST
[NFL, AFC North]
Well, the draft is done and overwith, and the one big trade that people have been expecting for some time has come through. This makes the AFC North perhaps the most competitive division in all of football, and certainly will make for a very long, entertaining and nail-biting season for the fans in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Baltimore.
Cleveland Browns
Pros: most improved team via draft and free agency
Cons: Not quite enough talent to compete with the other 3 in the division...yet.
Say what you will Browns fans - you've improved, and you should be capable of getting around 8 wins this season. But the fact of the matter remains that your QB is young and untried, and your overall talent level still doesn't match up well with the others in the AFC North. At the skill positions, Charlie Frye looks to have good potential. It seems that his leadership is already assumed, and that the Brownies will follow him. In Reuben Droughns you have a powerful, bruising back that suits the needs of the power-heavy AFC North. Assuming Kellen Winslow recovers from his knee problems, you have a pass-catching weapon over the middle (a huge benefit to a young quarterback) and good outside receivers in Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius. The offensive line looks to be improved, adding Joe Andruzzi. The offense looks to have a nice blend of power and skill, which, in this "new look" AFC North is going to be very, very necessary.
On the defense, though, things are looking not quite as rosy. In 2005, the Browns gave up a gashing 137 yards on the ground - something that has to be rectified in order to survive in this AFC North. Drafting DE Wimbley out of FSU is a start, and perhaps importing Ted Washington might help as well. Obtaining Willie McGinest will be a huge boon for this defense, still learing Romeo Crennel's 3-4 system. McGinest might have lost a half of a step, but he has long been an impact player with a nose for the ball - that alone should help solidify the Browns rather shaky defense. The secondary has only Daylon McCutcheon as a name player - they will have to get together quickly.
Romeo Crennell is a proven winner. This is his second year and the impact he has on the team is already evident. Expect Cleveland to compete hard this year, but without some real "horses" they are going to get left behind in a strong AFC North (and generally strong AFC).
Forecast: 8-8, 4th in AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Pros: Adding Steve McNair as QB should provide play at QB the Ravens have been lacking over the past few years
Cons: An aging defense doesn't get all that younger.
Trading a 4th round pick for Steve McNair is an absolute steal. The Ravens instantly have credibility at the QB position now - the AFC North foes are very mindful of what McNair did to them when he led the Titans in the old AFC Central. Expect McNair's arm and legs, and field generalship to provide a passing attack to the Ravens they haven't had in years. Importing Mike Anderson gives the Ravens a brutal 1-2 punch at RB with him and Lewis probably splitting time. Either way, both runners are strong and powerful, and can beat a defense into submission given the opportunity. Todd Heap is a strong tight end and the Ravens have Derrick Mason as a legit number 1 receiver. Mark Clayton may be expected to play a big role as a rookie. Their offensive line was suspect last year, and some improvements have been made. But, making it easier on this line is having a true weapon at QB - the thought goes that the Ravens won't see quite as many 8-man fronts, making blocking easier for this unit.
The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, two of the best at their respective positions in the game. Many observers of the game state Lewis has lost a half a step in recent years; regardless, Lewis is still better than the majority of linebackers out there, and two stud D-Lineman will keep blockers off of him, allowing him to flow more freely to the ball. Lewis still has a tremendous impact on this defense, and opponents will still have to counter him. Drafting Ngata from Oregon puts a big man in front of Lewis, and should help stabilize the interior line. Suggs and Bouleware still have tremendous speed to pressure the quarterback. Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister can still make plays, and Ed Reed in the middle is a monster.
Despite some reports to the contrary, Brian Billick still has firm control of the coaching of this team. It will be interesting to see if Billick's previous offensive magic is rekindled now that he has an actual QB at the helm instead of the imposters that have posed at the position over the past few years.
In the long run, Baltimore is poised to be either a Super Bowl contender or an also-ran. In this day's NFL, one critical injury could spell doom, and Baltimore doesn't have great depth except at RB. Still, they now possess enough weapons to play their style of football - punishing to the point of brutal defense, and a truly balanced offensive attack. The problem with Baltimore is that they have to play Pittsburgh and Cincinnati twice - forging a split with both of those teams is critical if they want to contend.
Forecast: 10-6, t2nd
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pros: Super Bowl Champions know they have enough talent to repeat
Cons: Now that they've won, will they actually want to win it again?
On offense, Pittsburgh lost 2 critical elements in Jerome Bettis and Antwaan Randle El. However, Duce Staley is now heir apparent to the Bus's previous short-yardage situation role, and drafting Santonio Holmes number one might be an improvement over Randel El. Willie Reid's speed and kick-returning abilities will be well-used by the Steelers - but can he replace Randle El's offensive gimmickry abilities? Their offensive line is still powerful - among the game's best - and they have a budding superstar in Ben Roethlisberger. If the playoffs last year showed anything, its that Pittsburgh cannot be totally relied upon to use the old 3 yards and a cloud of dust mentality, even though that's what they tell everyone they are going to do. Stars like Hines Ward and Heath Miller provide excellent pass-catching weapons, and they are generally deep at WR. They have "Fast" Willie Parker to offset power back Staley. All told, this offense could be even better, especially as Roethlisberger enters his 3rd year of NFL experience.
On defense, Pittsburgh lost two starters - Kemo Von oelhoffen to the Giants, and FS Chris Hope. The Steelers drafted to replace those two players, and on the D-Line, the Steelers had players waiting in the wings. It should be expected that the Steelers defense won't miss a beat with the new talent, especially considering their core players are returning. SS Troy Polamalu might be the game's best at his position, and Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend or Bryant McFadden make for a strong secondary. The LBs are as strong as ever - Porter, Farrior, Haggans, Foote & Harrison (1st backup) - are all strong to excellent players.
Rumors are circulating in Pittsburgh that Cowher is thinking of retiring soon. He's always been a player's coach, and one who relies on motivation to get the utmost from his players. Having finally won a title will have some kind of impact on Cowher and his team. Many teams relax after winning the title, and therefore get bumped out the next year. Will this be the case with the 2006 edition of the Pittsburgh Steelers?
The bottom line is that Pittsburgh has more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to make another Super Bowl title run. But the AFC is so good, and there are several teams in the Steelers way with chips on their shoulders. The Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Broncos and Patriots are all rather sick of the Steelers and would like nothing more than to whip their butts at any given opporunity. Pittsburgh *can* meet that challenge; the question is: will they?
Forecast: 10-6, t2nd
Cincinnati Bengals
Pros: Offensive weapons among the very best in the entire NFL
Cons: The defense
Like the Colts of a few years ago, the 2005 Bengals were prolific on offense but suspect on defense. But their offense...just like the Colts. When they get on track, they are virtually unstoppable. Carson Palmer's rehab has been reported as going extremely well. If that's true, and Palmer shows no ill effects from that brutal injury, the Bengals are well-poised to make a serious run again this year. The Johnson boys will again be among the game's best at their positions, led by a dominating, brutal offensive line. The Bengals could have used a TE to help flesh out a dynamic passing attack, but that's probably not going to hurt them this year. They will use enough 3-wide sets to drive defensive coordinators nuts, and their 3-wide set puts their 3 best weapons on the field, and Palmer is sensational at delivering the goods. This offense will be among the game's best this year, and for several years to come.
But, like the Colts of a few years ago, the Bengals sub-par defense will again be a problem. The Bengals were soft against the run, and the rest of the AFC North foes have strong offensive running games. Despite that, enough new players were added that it should at least stabilize the defense (assuming AJ Nicholson pulls his head out of his ass) to the point of generating enough stops. With that offense, generating enough stops is all that the Bengals need to do to win this division.
Marvin Lewis's impact on the Bengals is evident. They are an up-and-coming powerhouse in the AFC, and should sit there for some time to come. He's tough and demanding, but gets the results.
Forecast: 11-5, 1st
Overall, the reason I'm picking the Bengals over both the Ravens and Steelers is that they have a bigger chip on their shoulder than either other team. Cincinnati feels it was robbed by the Steelers, and will want to exact a large measure of revenge. They have a brutal overall schedule, however, and that could make things interesting. The entire NFL should circle December 31st on their calendars this year - the last game of Cincy's season is to host Pittsburgh in what should be a huge collision of two playoff-bound teams that might have a massive impact on the entire playoff schedule.
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