This division has been New England and everyone else for a few years now. While that certainly seems to be the case once again this year, enough changes were made in Miami and New York for them to make things interesting. Buffalo, on the other hand, seems to be committed to shooting themselves squarely in the foot. 1. New England Patriots, 11-5, 1st AFCE New England merely reloads. Their significant off-season defections include Adam Vinateri and David Givens. But the Pats signed Martin Gramatica and imported talent in the offensive skill positions to replace, replenish and solidify an already solid offense. The Pats best and not-secret weapon is Tom Brady, for as Brady goes, so go the Pats. Brady's unflappable leadership and accurate arm, and longevity in the same offensive system, allows him to lead the Pats when they need to be led, and manage the game when it merely needs to be managed. New England has a chip on their shoulder from the refs and their hankies when in Denver last year, and will look to not only climb back into the playoffs, but go further into them and perhaps back to the Super Bowl. As in many of the previous years, the Pats are once again Super Bowl favorites, and for good reason. Defensively, the Pats still feature core talent that virtually all other teams would covet. Anchoring the line is the disruptive force of nature Richard Seymour. Tedy Bruschi - back after his mild stroke - is one of the smartest, most instinctive players in the game. Their secondary has been exposed at times, but considering the Pats often play with a lead, its no surprise that the secondary gets a lot of work. But they play well at all times, and coach Bill Belichick is *the* master at having his defense ready to outthink the opponent. 2. Miami Dolphins, 10-6, 2nd Miami has major question marks beginning with Duante Culpepper and his reconstructed knee and ending with their game but aging defense. Coach Nick Saban did a remarkable job last year bringing a solid defense and no-name offense to a winning record. That was a giant relief to 'Fin faithful, who suffered through some awful years. But, Miami will go only as far as Culpepper and his knee can take them. If he is totally recovered, and if he can regain his form of two years ago, Miami will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFL. Offensive depth is a concern for Miami, for if any of their starters go down, there's not much in the tank behind them. Still, they have the right weapons, and Ronnie Brown's ascension to full-time starter after Ricky Williams' fourth drug suspension will ensure Miami can run the balanced offensive attack coach Saban wants. On defense, Miami has gotten by with many of the same core players for years. They are still a formidable unit, but nothing like what they once were. Saban addressed defense in his second draft, and the youngsters will be thrust into high-profile (but probably not starting) roles very quickly. If they perform ably, then Miami's defense will again steady this ship. If not, they'll still do well, but won't challenge New England for the title of the AFC East, and might once again slip out of the playoffs. 3. New York Jets, 8-8, 3rd After last year's abysmal performance, 8-8 would seem like a miracle for the Jets. But they had some very hard luck last year, and its hard to believe that bad luck would strike two years in a row. But the Jets always seem to be an up and down team, which means by historical standards, the Jets ought to be better this year. Making things very difficult to figure out is their new coach, and what he plans on doing with the units. Offensively, they can't be worse unless Pennington's already-suspect arm strength got worse after his shoulder injuries, in which case the Jets have a rookie and suspect Patrick Ramsey backing him up. They still have a solid running game with Curtis Martin, but the years are showing, and Martin is no longer quite as formidable as he once was. Defensively, losing John Abraham is going to hurt - he was a franchise-type player with the tag, and earned it through his play. Someone like that is not easily replaced, no matter what anyone says. The entire defensive scheme will have to be reworked to some extent, but Eric Mangini's appreticeship under guru Belichick ought to pay some dividends here. The Jets still have a nucleus of young, solid talent on defense, and the unit should keep the Jets competitive. 4. Buffalo Bills, 4-12, 4th Ah, the Bills. The first and largest question surrounding this franchise is "who will start at QB?" No matter what, in today's NFL, when that is your largest question in the off-season, the upcoming season does not bode well. With a suspect offensive line, and Willis McGahee (who some question his overall ability) attempting to be the featured back, the Bills offense will probably be too predictable, and will be forced into what they do worst - passing. When that happens, expect few good things to occur...which won't be pretty. On defense, a unit that has been forced to overachieve just to stay competitive will be burdened once again. The talent is there, few question that. But as a whole, with such a weak offense, the defense will inevitably be tired in the fourth quarter, and the Bills fate will be sealed late in quite a few games... New England - having won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years in the 2000s, and with a "face of the game" player and coach in Brady and Belichick (not to mention being one of the largest market teams) will dominate all the headlines in the AFC East. The rivalries are growing hotter with Indy and Pittsburgh - although they miss the Steelers in the regular season. The "Big 3" in the AFC are all pre-season favorites to contend for the AFC Title once again, and there's no reason at all to believe that New England won't be a major part of that mix.