Seems that several teams in the AFC have distanced themselves from the pack, and are all charging hard towards the post-season. While earlier in the season it seemed that the AFC had taken a back seat to the NFC, that's not quite as evident right now. I think that any of the three current division leaders that actually play good football would give any NFC division leader a run for their money or more.
New York Jets. With an 8-3 record, and a 3-1 divisional record (splitting against the Pats), they are in the envious position of having one game in hand on the Pats, and easier record down the stretch, and the knowledge that they just delivered a wallop to the NFL's lone unbeaten team. The Jets are pulling together exactly how they had hoped to do so - their defense is stout against the run, and they are running the ball well behind a stud offensive line. It doesn't even matter that they have Brett Favre, although his play of late certainly suggests that he has a lot of good football left in the tank. The Jets face an interesting game this Sunday, hosting the Denver Broncos in a division leader game. They then host both Buffalo and Miami between taking on two woeful NFC West teams. If there is a flaw in their schedule, it's that they have to travel to the West Coast for their two away games. But they play the Niners and Seahawks, and neither team should pose a tremendous test for the Jets. The Jets have built themselves a cold-weather, playoff-style team. It's certainly possible, maybe even likely, that the Jets finish the season going 5-0. Should they do so, I think it's safe to say that they'd wrap up the #2 seed in the playoffs and get a week off as an added bonus. In the AFC, with the teams that could potentially lie in wait as Wild Card entrants, that week off will be huge.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Also with an 8-3 record and a 4-0 divisional record, the Steelers are definitely in the driver's seat in the North. The trouble is that while the Jets have an easy schedule to the end, the Steelers is growing more difficult by the day. The next four games in a row they face likely playoff teams, or teams very much in the hunt for the playoffs. They go to New England this coming Sunday, then host Dallas, go to Baltimore and then Tennessee before finally finishing up with Cleveland. If - make that IF in huge font - the Steelers manage to somehow go 5-0 in this stretch, then I don't care what anyone says, they are by far the best team in the AFC. But they won't. So that likely puts them in a long battle with Baltimore, and then hosting a Wild Card game without the benefit of a week off. The Steelers difficult schedule is still working against them. The Steelers have the right mix of elements to win even the Super Bowl - the great defense, the solid offense, the very good special teams - but they need to be a special team in order to get out of this AFC. And when we get into wild card discussions, they'll need every last bit of chemistry, strength, character and ability they have!
The Tennessee Titans (10-1) have their season and schedule lined up to the be the #1 seed in the AFC. The doubters surfaced after the Jets trounced them, but the Titans are built to win playoff games. Losing a game during the regular season won't matter to them, and I think that if given the chance, Jeff Fisher would rest players if they sew up the #1 seed early - and they have a full game in hand over the Jets to they have breathing room. The Titans play awful Detroit, bad Cleveland, bad Houston, a very good Steelers team (which is an obvious AFC playoff preview) and finish up with the Colts. Even if they lose to the Steelers, they'll still have plenty of games over the Colts, so they are basically assured of winning the South unless the wheels come completely, fully off of the wagon. Hard to imagine that happening, especially with how well this team plays defense.
At 6-5, the Denver Broncos are leading the West and in-line to host a playoff game, that much is true. But compared to the other 3 division winners, and the 3 leading contenders for the Wild Card, the Broncos don't measure up. They're not running the ball well, and their run defense is just bad. But here's the thing with Denver - they have a challenging schedule to end their season, and while it would be rather sad, it's highly possible that the Chargers can pass them. The Broncos go to the Jets, then host KC before going to Carolina in what ought to be a very tough game for them. Then they host Buffalo before ending in San Diego. Can you imagine a game in which both the Broncos and Chargers are 7-8 and playing for the AFC West title? I can.
Wild Card
3 teams have identical 7-4 marks, with two more at 6-5 and stalking horses in this race.
The Pats at 7-4 are a game behind the Jets, but have 2 division losses to the Jets 1, so it's unlikely for the Pats to take over the lead. The Pats have 2 difficult games, but luckily for them host them both. The Steelers game this Sunday will be a true measuring stick game. Beat the Steelers, and take charge in the AFC. Lose, and the doubters surface again. Then they host the Cardinals, which will be tough, but the Cards don't play well away from home, and it's a 1PM game, making things even more difficult for the Cards. But games against the Seahawks and Raiders look to be easier wins, before finishing up with the Bills. It's hard to predict this team -the same achilles' heel that did the Pats in last year (no running game) is back again. Plus, Matt Cassel is kind of tough to forecast. He's doing more than an admirable job, but he's not Tom Brady. Still, the Pats are the one team that I think all AFC teams would prefer to see lose and miss the playoffs. They're too scary.
Also at 7-4 are the Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning's knee seems better, the Colts offense is playing well, and the Colts defense is playing well even when missing Bob Sanders. In a word: YIKES. Plus, the Colts have 3 stinkers in a row - the Browns in Cleveland, hosting the Bengals and hosting Detroit. The Colts will easily be 10-4 and keeping pace, and perhaps overtaking to grab the #1 Wild Card spot (#5 overall). The season finale against the Titans could be a huge measuring stick game, or could be a mutt - it will depend on whether or not the Titans have already secured the first overall and choose to rest their players. The Colts are the other team that has a very realistic chance of running the table to end the season. A Colts team on a 10-game tear entering the playoffs would scare everyone.
At 7-4, the Ravens need some help, and like the Steelers face an uphill battle. But unlike the Steelers, the Ravens face both an uphill battle AND need a little help. Their last "easy" game comes this weekend, going to Cincy. Then two home games against Washington and Pittsburgh before a trip to Dallas to play the 'Boys. They end at home against the Jags. The Ravens may have to set their sights on overtaking the Steelers in the North as their best hope - it's almost impossible to imagine the Colts faltering, and slightly harder to envision the Pats doing the same. But it's entirely possible that the Steelers stumble, and they get to play the Steelers at home. That will be a typically nasty game - maybe beyond nasty. Worrisome however is the fact that when the Ravens lose, they do so in rather spectacular fashion.
The Dolphins and Bills are both at 6-5 and both need significant help. The Bills at 0-4 in the East are probably dead in the water - there are too many good teams that have better records. The same is probably true of the Dolphins. It's possible that either Baltimore or Pittsburgh stumble, but unlikely that both the Pats and Colts will, and right now those two teams are in the driver's seat for the playoffs. So while both teams have had nice seasons, but given away some games here and there, they shouldn't hang their heads. Maybe wish they played in the West...
Predicted order of playoffs
1. Tennessee (14-2)
2. New York Jets (13-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
4. Denver Broncos (9-7)
5. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
6. New England Patriots (11-5)
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