In the era of the salary cap and parity, it seems that every year one team makes a huge leap forward and earns a playoff spot (or at least some serious cred) where most observersed believed the team was closer to dead than anything else.  Last year, we had three such teams: the Arizona Cardinals, the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons. 

This year, all 3 of those teams are getting much closer inspection.  The Cards have endured a pretty rough off-season and with the turnover in the coaching staff and player animosity, things are poised for the Cards to tumble.  The Falcons improved by adding TE Tony Gonzales - a mid-range passing weapon was really the only thing Ryan lacked last year.  The Dolphins should continue to be a good team, but the reality they face is a tougher schedule and a Patriots team that will surely include Tom Brady. 

So who's poised to rise from the ashes of a poor 2008 season and battle to make the playoffs?  There are some contenders...

The "trendy" pick is the Cincinnati Bengals.  Now, some of that is because Chad #85 says so, but in reality there are a lot of things that Bengals faithful can look at and feel a sense of hope.  When he's healthy, Carson Palmer is among the league's best and most accurate passers.  He's smart, strong-armed and has a great touch for the ball.  As both Pittsburgh and Arizona showed last year, having a star QB is more of a benefit than can easily be put into words.  Plus, he understands how to work that Cincy offense.  But the real reason the Bengals are getting some love is that most people believe they have upgraded their defense enough to make them a much better overall team.  The hard part is their division, and to some degree, their conference.  They will have to vault above either (or both) the Ravens and Steelers, not to mention the Chargers, Pats, Colts and/or the Titans.  That's a dominant listing of teams you have there; cracking it will take a tremendous season.  That being said, there's some real reason to think that the Bengals can do it.

Another interesting pick could be the Houston Texans.  Like Cincy, they have a long, uphill climb in their own division.  But both sides of the ball seem to be improving steadily.  If the Texans can pick up where they left off last year, and continue moving forward, they could be in a position to unseat the Colts or Titans.  It's a long shot, because talent-wise, both the Titans and Colts have edges in key areas.  But the Texans have displayed an ability to move forward steadily, and really haven't had any major distractions this off-season.  Neither the Colts nor Titans can make that same claim, and one has to wonder how much the loss of Haynesworth will impact the Titans defense. 

Could the Buffalo Bills make a post-season run?  This would qualify for a major surprise.  The "TO Show" notwithstanding, this isn't a team that's really built to tackle the big dogs in their own division, let alone its conference.  The Bills have kind of been a moribund team for 3 straight years.  Trent Edwards and HC Dick Juaron seem awfully mild-mannered; their ability to 'handle' TO may be the focal point for this entire season.  Talent-wise, the Bills are below all three teams in their own division.  But you just never know, and since the Bills have some decent talent in key spots all over the field, and on both sides of the ball, if they get the right blend of things rolling, who's to say they can't make the playoffs?

Could (ahem) the Oakland Raiders make a run?  To their credit, the NFC West is comparatively weak than other divisions.  The Chargers will likely be the top dog in this division, but with Denver's implosion and KC's rebuilding process, there is a clear path for the Raiders.  The problem is that they don't have a known quality at QB.  Russell might one day be a good QB, but not only is the jury still out on that, but the early returns regarding Russell's practice habits, etc., are not good.  Like the Bills, it would take almost a perfect culmination of events. 

But then again, the 2008 Falcons were projected as being one of the NFL's worst teams!  Anything can happen, right?

In the NFC, the only 'East' team that gets any kind of discussion are the Redskins.  They've had their own fair share of upheaval this off-season, starting with the QB situation.  The Skins improved on defense with Haynesworth and a good draft, and their offense wasn't all that bad with Campbell.  The brutal truth of the matter is that the Eagles and Giants are both definitely better, and the Cowboys seem a little better.  Getting into the playoffs means having to forge a road through what will likely be labeled the best division in football (again) and that makes the job that much more difficult.

The Chicago Bears have a lot of reasons to feel confidence.  Now, they get on this list only because they missed the post-season last year.  They, like the Vikings in 2008, are a borderline team.  It won't take much to make, or miss, the playoffs.  The addition of Cutler, however, ideally positions the Bears to return to the playoffs after their brief absence. 

Like the NFC North, in which 3 teams all have legit playoff hopes, the NFC South has 3 teams with legit playoff hopes.  So instead, let's look at the Bucs.  Can the Bucs make a run back to the playoffs?  There are suggestions that perhaps they can - they will roll out a solid defense and solid running game.  But there are so many questions at QB (like who's going to start!) that it makes choosing the Bucs as a "surprise" team very hard to fathom.  But, for argument's sake, let's say Josh Freeman sheds that 'raw talent' label very quickly, especially considering some of the player/coaches he'll have like Byron Leftwich.  The Bucs have enough talent to go far.  Unsetting the Falcons, Pathers and Saints, however, will require a lot more than mere talent.

Out west, the Niners are perhaps the team to watch.  There are some good reasons why this is true - Singletary very well may through sheer force of personality make this a better team.  The West is considerably weaker than the other 3 divisions in the NFC, as both the Seahawks and Cardinals have some exploitable weaknesses.  But both teams figure to be at least as good as last year or significantly improved, which means the Niners will have to improve a great deal as well.

Overall, as I wrote this, what strikes me as that there are a lot of divisions in the NFL that have some really intriguing teams.  The NFC East, South and North all have some really interesting stories that will have to play out over the course of the year.  With all of the good teams, of which I think the NFC has more, it creates a situation in which there will be at least 2 or 3 'good' teams that miss out on the playoffs.  The AFC is a little more top-heavy; there are more 'better' and 'worse' teams in the AFC than in the NFC.  In any event, what's sure to happen is that there will be some teams in both conferences that miss the playoffs (surprising everyone) and some teams that make the playoffs (again surprising everyone).  We just have to watch and wait to find out who will be the 2009 NFL Surprise Teams!