I love this argument - which conference is better, the AFC or NFC?

Let's start at the bottom.  Who has the weakest teams?

AFC - Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs
NFC - Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams

OK, so the Raiders are a chinese firedrill team, and the Chiefs are rebuilding.  I put them here because I don't think that Matt Cassel alone will lift up this team.  I'm thinking a 4-12 record is dead in their sights.  The same is true for Oakland - that's a team that as long as Al Davis has any say in football operations will be awful.  The Lions, coming off their 0-16 season, cannot possibly be worse.  But they've made some decent moves, and one has to think they'll earn 2, 3 maybe 4 wins this year.  The Rams may be the NFL's worst team - they seem to be in a state of complete disarray.

What about teams that are a step above awful?

AFC - Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills
NFC - San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Maybe this isn't fair to any of these five teams - especially perhaps Seattle since they were so devastated by injuries last year.  But the fact remains that either their moves won't pay off for another year, they've taken a step backwards, or I'm just doubting their abilities to win consistently.  The funny thing is that all 5 of these teams are capable of winning games.  They have some real talent on the team.  They have some good situations - coaches, owners, players - but there is always a group that simply can't get it done.  You're expecting 5-7 wins here.

Dead-range average

AFC - Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets
NFC - Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers

Even among these teams you can see windows of opportunity opening or closing.  In the AFC, the Texans, Bengals and Jets all have windows that appear to be opening.  They're not there yet, or their past performance doesn't allow me to put them higher.  With any of these teams, with the right mixture of injuries or overachievement you could see playoff potential.  But they are yet a step behind one, two or even three teams in their own division, and in that situation you can't project them much higher than this.

Above the line - but with a closing window of opportunity

AFC - Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC - Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys

These teams all were in the playoffs last year, or competed to the end-stage of the season to get there.  My look is that their core talent isn't quite there (say in Miami) or their core talent is beginning to show age (Indy) or they've never quite lived up to expectations (New Orleans, Carolina, Dallas).  The Jags are an interesting team here - one that's probably good enough to compete for a playoff despite a tough division and conference - but one that has such a razor thin line between success and failure that you could easily see them bumped off and out.  The Cowboys are in the same position.  The Giants will be a very strong team again, and the Eagles improved.  The Cowboys jettisoned TO, but will that be enough?

Above the line - with an opening window of opportunity

AFC - Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins
NFC - Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles

Now it gets interesting.  These are all teams that have many, many pieces in place.  They are teams that had a great year last year (or at least a pretty good one) and few if any expect them to take steps backwards.  Philly has the strangest situation with an aging QB, but with the additional weapons he got this year, and his maturation into a top QB, you can't hardly think the Eagles won't be there for a few more years yet.  The Titans will continue to be strong, and the Ravens are probably the fasting-coming AFC team out there.  The Falcons, Vikings and Bears all have extreme reasons for hope with their improvements (or possible ones).

At the top and determined to stay there

AFC - New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC - New York Giants

Call these three teams 1a, 1b and 1c.  The Steelers have the best defense.  The Patriots should have the best offense.  The Giants should have the combination of both.  All three teams have the best possible situations in ownership, football operations, coaching and talent.  All three teams have won or been in Super Bowls recently, and all three teams are ready to tackle the challenge of an upcoming season.  No other teams in either conference look ready to unseat these three simply because these three have elements none of the others have. 

What I really think is that the scales are tipping slightly towards the NFC.  For many years in the AFC, there were one or two truly top teams and then about eight that annually competed for playoff spots.  The competition was fierce among those teams.  Now I think that same situation is emerging in the NFC.  The AFC will likely be dominated by five teams - The Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers and Titans.  The Colts and Jags are next in line probably - with the Dolphins an outside chance.  The others are facing long odds because of extremely strong divisions (AFC East, North, South) or because the rest of the division sucks or the teams are falling apart (AFC West).  In the NFC, the Giants have the best overall team, but Philly is chasing them down.  The NFC South could be fascinating - arguably perhaps the most talented division assuming both the Saints and Panthers play up to their expectations.  The West could be topsy-turvy if the Seahawks really rediscover their past form - they could easily challenge the Cardinals for the top slot.  So it's close, but I think that this year the NFC begins to slowly emerge as the better, more competitive of the two conferences.  The AFC is growing more top-heavy by the year, and that kills some of the interest - especially if both New England and San Diego run away with their divisions as I expect them to do.  The South and North will have the tightest battles which very well may last to the season's end.