Granted there are 2 days left, and some positioning may change depending upon the outcomes of several games. But for the sake of discussion, let's assume the current Eastern Conference standings remain as is. Actually I hope they will - it will make for some very entertaining first round hockey.
How do you like your hatred?
That's the question you've got to ask because 3 of the 4 first round matchups are between teams with history. Pens & Flyers in a battle for PA supremacy - and these two teams don't just hate one another, they despise one another. Habs and Sens - two Canadian teams for which there's no love lost between one another. Devils and Rangers - basically cross-town rivals that play 8 times a year, and there's no telling what kind of hatred will build in that series.
It'll take a while - perhaps the first period of the first game - for Boston and Washington to build some of that hatred, but it will come, but not with quite the same intensity.
1. Pens vs 8. Flyers. The Flyers are a great story this year - going from the worst in the league to fighting all year and then finally making it into the playoffs. Things were desperate there for a while, but the Flyers have put together some really good games of late to ensure they made the second season. The Flyers have been injury-riddled all year, and Simon Gagne is still out, but otherwise they are relatively healthy. It comes at a good time, too.
There's absolutely no need for any hyping for this series. In reality, this one could very well start Sunday, as both team's season finale is in Philly. If the Pens win, they guarantee the first overall spot in the East. If the Flyers win, they'll leapfrog the Senators for 7th. All of this will hinge upon Montreal. If the Habs win their final game, then basically it doesn't matter how this game ends - the Pens and Flyers will see each other in the first round. If that's the case, this will be the eighth playoff game, and will feature the intensity, hitting, hatred and generally nasty play that these two seem to always have on the ice. You want to see true physical hockey? Watch Sunday at 3 - for just the opening act!
2. Montreal vs. 7 Ottawa. It's pretty likely that no matter what else, the Sens and Habs will see each other in the first round. Montreal has got to be licking their chops for this series. The Sens defense is weakened, as their best sniper is hurt. Their goalie situation is totally bizarre, and were it not for the rocket start to the season that Ottawa had, they'd be out. There's no reason to expect that the Sens will rise up and defeat the powerful and balanced Habs...but then again this is the playoffs. You start 0-0 and go from there.
Still, the Senators are lacking key components, and most observers of this team say their biggest lack is one of leadership. No one seems willing or able to take the bull by the horns and lead this team, and as a result there are constant small breakdowns all over the ice nearly every game. Against powerful opposition, who at their worst will take advantage and at their best will utterly expose it, that's a very bad situation. The Senators are going to have to lace 'em up tightly and get ready to try and regain last year's form. The trouble is, they are facing a very formidable foe, and I think the Canadiens would take great delight in smacking the Senators around for a few games, and then utterly humiliating them just for good measure. This one could get mean.
3. Washington vs. 6. Boston. An interesting match up here between two teams that haven't gotten a lot of press for their team play over the year. Sure, Washington has Ovechkin and Backstrom, while Boston has Charra, but otherwise these two teams seem to be filled with role players.
Who has the edge here? This is a tough one. If Washington makes it, they'll have a high seed, but it won't really be indicative of their season-long body of work. They were essentially two teams - the horrific team that started the season and the blazing team that ended it. Can Washington maintain that intensity for another 6-8 weeks, that they've already been doing for 6-8 weeks? If I was Boston, I'd be looking to come out absolutely smoking - the Caps are that kind of team that just might topple if they get the right push. Not because the Caps have any glaring weaknesses, but emotionally and physically this team has got to be tired. If Boston can find that button...
On the other hand, Washington has a lot of things in place to slap Boston around some, and maybe do it quick to earn much-needed rest. Ovechkin will finally get a taste of playoff hockey, as will many of the other young Caps, but their lack of playoff experience will hurt at first. I can't see Ovechkin's production dropping off too much, and Ron Wilson's an experienced coach.
4. NJ Devils vs 5. NY Rangers. Yikes - here's the only stat right now that matters. NYR - 7. NJD - 0. That with one to go. Not only that, but the Devils were flat against Philly when they had a chance to wrap up first round home ice, and the Devils were shut out. Now NY hosts the Devils, and the Rangers have the opportunity to get that first round home-ice advantage. So the Rangers have a season-long streak in place, and a lot of incentive to win this game. The Devils do, too, but NJ seems to finally be coming back down to earth. They've not been overwhelming in the past 4 weeks, and while they've haven't exactly limped into the playoffs, they've not done much to inspire a lot of hope, either. But the Rangers have - they had a swoon earlier in the year, but lately they've been very, very good. They took 2 or 3 (one in OT) against Pittsburgh and have done what they've needed to do. Their leader Jagr is finally playing to the physical level of his capability, and Lunqvist is doing some stellar work between the pipes.
But, like with Pittsburgh and Philly, the season's last game can really set the tone. Should NJ forge a win - and I'm talking a solid, 60-win type of win that leaves no doubts who was the better team that day - they'll waltz into the playoffs with a renewed sense of optimism. Should NY smack them around again, it'll be the Rangers walking tall and oozing confidence. The pre-cursor game here - like in the Pittsburgh/Philly game - will set the tone for the upcoming first round series.
So, here it is.
Pittsburgh wins the East with a win over Philly on Sunday. The Rangers take fourth with a win of NJ on Sunday. The Habs forge second beating Toronto, and Washington steals third with a win over Florida.
Pittsburgh beats Philly in 5. The Mellon Arena is too kind to the Pens, and the Pens have proven they can win in Philadelphia. The Flyers are a good story, and a good and up-and-coming team with lots of future hope, but the Pens are too strong top to bottom. The Pens have last year's playoff experience on their side, and they'll draw upon that to generate the instant intensity needed to win a series. The Flyers will likely continue to try and play their ultra-physical brand of hockey they tend to employ against Pittsburgh, but the Pens are big and durable enough to take it on, and then their power play is still lethal. Neither team's goalie is truly NHL Playoff tested, but Fleury has been playing much, much better, and since the overall talent level is tilted to Pittsburgh, you've got to figure they'll take this series. Maybe not handily, but they'll take it.
Montreal beats Ottawa in 4. I can't see the Senators righting the ship quickly enough to defeat the Habs. I just can't. Montreal - despite late-season injuries - is too good top to bottom, too balanced and too strong defensively to allow one line to beat them. Not only that, if Ottawa thinks that being physical is going to work, they'll get some penalties and then the Habs #1 power play will go to work. The Senators are about to be outclassed badly in this series.
Washington beats Boston in 6. It'll take Ovechkin a game or two to get his playoff footing, but once he gets it, he'll light the lamp. The Caps have a nice blend of young and veteran, but their young guns are truly the leaders here. Boston is not all that intimidating even with Charra, so the Caps won't get out worked or out hustled. Still, if there's a potential first-round upset, this is the series - because you don't know if Washington will simply run out of gas.
NY Rangers beats NJ Devils in 5. The Devils had a nice season, but it's about to end, and the Blue Shirts will dispatch the Devs with relative ease. The Rangers are a very solid team top to bottom, with great goaltending especially at home, and Brodeur is great, but he's just about it on that team. The Devils just don't seem to be all that ready for the grind of the playoffs. So I'm going with New York.
Super Star