Finally, the cuts have been made, the roster moves done and the practice squads filled out. No more wondering, guessing and waiting with bated breath for the real thing to start. It's here!
For openers, Thursday night will feature the Miami Dolphins traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Super Bowl defending champions. There are a lot of storylines and sub-plots surrounding this game - Duante's knee, Ben's appendix (and inability to successfully drive a motorcycle), Cowher's wishy-washy contract situation and finally Ricky Williams. All distractions. And although all have some kind of impact on this game, none of it will really matter for the sixty minutes of the game.
Expect a run-oriented defensive struggle here. With Charlie Batch at the helm for the Steelers, the playbook they keep promising to open has been shut. You'll get a healthy dose of Willie Left, Willie Right and simple play-action passing just to keep the defense honest. Miami will counter with essentially the same game plan, hoping to run the ball. Both teams feature stout defenses, and it's likely that both offensive coordinators will spread out the defense using formations, and will try to get favorable one-on-one matchups. That being said, the Steelers are essentially the overall better team, playing at home to open the season. Miami couldn't have asked for a worse overall first game, traveling into hostile country to visit a team that's sure to be amped. Still, Miami's improved team should present some big-time problems, and this game will be decided by special teams and field position. In that, the Steelers have an edge, and therefore (plus getting the intangibles nod) should win this game by 4.
Atlanta travels to Carolina to play a divisional rival. Atlanta especially is going to use this game as a measuring stick, as Carolina is expected to vie for the NFC crown, let alone the NFC South title. Atlanta can attack with a bruising running game highlighted by Mike Vick's incomparable legs. But the Panthers will likely shadow him, and will try to force Vick to do what he does worst - pass the ball. If Carolina can dictate the game action here, the game is over right then and there. Also, if Atlanta's run defense doesn't show up (like it did at the end of the season last year), then a steady dose of power running is going to wear this team down, and then out. I just can't see any reasonable way that Atlanta wins this game. Carolina by 8.
Baltimore travels to Tampa Bay in what should be a very intriguing game. Firstly, with Baltimore importing QB Steve McNair from Tennessee, the Ravens hope they have a revitalized passing game. Second, they hope that last year's offensive line performance was just a hiccup, and the line blows open holes for their two stellar backs to run through and chew up the yardage. Tampa's defense provides a stern test for the Ravens, just as Baltimore's defense provides a stern test for Tampa's offense. Still, the biggest question in his game surrounds McNair. If he has any magic left in him at all, it will immediately make Baltimore a dangerous team. If the Bucs defense shuts the Ravens down despite McNair's presence, it could signal another long season for the Ravens. The Bucs offense should be able to do enough to win this game. They won't generate many long drives, but they should still be able to move the chains enough to at least get some points. Don't expect many touchdowns in this game. Tampa by 4.
Buffalo gets to show the world how little they've improved by going to New England. The Pats are ready to launch on a season many expect will end with another Super Bowl title. The Bills will be lucky to finish with more than 4 victories. This will be a slow laugher for the Pats, as their defense easily (mis)handles the "offense" that the Bills have. Tom Brady will find the passing lanes open and will deliver his usual precise balls, and the Pats will win in a romp - by two touchdowns at least.
Cincinnati travels to Kansas City for a game that should provide an early read for two AFC contenders. Has Carson's knee really recovered? More importantly for this game, can Cincinnati's defense stop the run? KC - despite losing Willie Roaf to retirement - has a fearsome running game led by RB Larry Johnson. If Cincy's defense up the middle is weak, KC will pound the ball, forcing the Bengals to commit eight in the box, and will then allow an accurate Trent Green to carve them up with his strong passing game. This game could easily turn into a shootout, where you have to give Cincy the nod - although KC's offense is strong, they don't have the big-play potential like the Bengals do, and if it comes to a shootout, look out. Expect both teams to have over 24 points, and the Bengals will escape KC with a 4 point victory. However, it will show that neither team is really capable of stopping the run...which will hurt both in the long run.
Denver visits the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis for a good opener for both teams. Denver expects to compete for the Super Bowl again this year, and there's no reason not to believe them. They have perhaps the game's best offensive running system, which just churns out thousand yard rushers no matter who's carrying the rock. On offense, if given time, Jake Plummer can deliver to a host of strong talent, especially newly acquired Jevon Walker. On defense, the Broncos still have a strong core of talent, with a lot of team speed and one of the game's best cover corners. But they'll face a Rams team that is quite different than past editions. This one truly does have a committment to the running game. It should be an interesting game, although overall Denver is the stronger team and will emerge victorious by a mere field goal.
New Orleans at Cleveland gets attention because of Reggie Bush and Drew Brees. Otherwise, this game only warrants mention to Saints and Browns fans. New Orleans will look to finally show that the "paper talent" they have is capable of actually performing on the field. Importing Bush to act as the two of the one-two punch of him and McAllister makes the Saints offense quite difficult to defense. Certainly, Bush has already shown what he can do in the open field...and fortunately for him (unfortunately for Cleveland) he'll probably have lots of opportunities to be in the open field. Cleveland has the hallmarks of a team on the rise, but they're just not there yet. This game will put an exclamation point on that, as New Orleans wins by 10.
If New Orleans/Cleveland bored you, then don't bother watching the Jets go to Nashville. For the Titans, all you need to know about this year's edition is that they imported Kerry Collins with about a week left in preseason...and some are penciling him is the Titans opening day starter. Not good news. Plus, the Titans have rivaled the Bengals in off-field incidents - not exactly a shining star for the franchise. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have virtually nothing left in the tank, and with the youngest-ever head coach calling the shots (first year man Eric Mangini) expect the Jets to play a conservative game, hoping to generate some kind of running game to take pressure off the oft-injured Chad Pennington. The Titans will probably win this on the basis of home-field advantage only...by 1.
Philadelphia goes to Houston. Philly is looking to rebound from the utter disaster that was the 2005 season. Being that close to TO might cause residual headaches in the Eagles locker room. Still, Philly has some reason for hope - first, no one is expecting much out of them. Second, Donavan McNabb wants to give a big middle finger to all of his doubters, and scorching the Texans will be a start. Philly's defense should find plenty of holes in the offensive line and will take off after David Carr. The Texans didn't address their offensive line needs enough, and another losing season will be the result of that oversight. Figure Philly to win this one rather easily...by 8.
Seattle at Detroit offers some interesting choices for football viewing. Obviously, the defending NFC champs are worthy of attention, especially considering they lost virtually no one except OG Hutchison in the off-season. Shaun Alexander will be the hammer, and again Matt Hasselbeck will be the sharp-edge knife, carving up defenses this year. Of note, however, is that Rod Marinelli has imported some toughness and responsibility to Lions players. They will struggle this year, but should show many signs of improvement. Although Seattle will win this game, they won't do so easily, and it will be a sign to the rest of the NFC that Detroit has improved. Not enough to warrant serious playoff looks, mind you. But they have improved, and a wise man once said you have to crawl before you can walk. Seattle wins by 10.
Chicago goes to Green Bay for another edition of the NFL's oldest rivalry. There are many questions in this game, virtually all of them regarding the quarterbacks. Can Brett Favre really have a good to great final year (assuming here), or was last year a truer indicator of his fading skills? Chicago's defense isn't exactly the best recipe for success here, and they are sure to be ready to beat and batter Green Bay's young offense. On the flip side, however, is the fact that Chicago still doesn't have a settled QB situation. Sure, Rex Grossman is their man, but he hasn't set the world on fire his preseason. Plus, he's so fragile Bears fans must hold their breath every time someone gets within three feet of Grossman! But in the end a solid Bears effort will prove too much for the Packers, and Chicago will win by 4.
Dallas at Jacksonville is one of this weekend's best and most intriguing games. First off, no matter what, Dallas gets the media nod due just to the presence of TO. But if he's on the field, he'll generate his own attention. Jacksonville's defense is good to great, but TO is all-world, and he's aiming to prove that to everyone, especially Bill Parcells. Maybe Parcells has done his coaching job perfectly - doing things his way knowing it will infuriate TO, which this year at least will make him want to show up the coach by kicking butt on the football field. Or so one hopes, if you're a Dallas fan. Regardless, you have a very strong Dallas offense (with TO) against an equally strong Jacksonville defense. When the roles are flipped the game won't be quite as interesting. Dallas's defense is very, very fast and supremely athletic, and unless Jacksonville figures out a way to open some running room, it will be a tough game for the Jags. Despite being in the league for a few years now, Byron Leftwich hasn't blossomed into a super star. So you've got to think he's going to be a middle of the road quarterback for the rest of his career, which isn't bad so long as the rest of the team around him can pick him up and allow him to manage the game. Here's to voicing some doubt about that...and Dallas will win this one with a late Bledsoe to TO touchdown...
San Francisco at Arizona is yet another game of interest only to local fans. When you speak of the team's desire and tenacity in the face of great adversity, it does not bode well for the team's winning percentage. Alas, that's what we're speaking of when we talk about the once-proud Niners. They will travel to Arizona to take on a feisty defense, and an offense with more weapons than imaginable. Arizona will find some running room, which will get everyone all in a tizzy about the Cardinals...but against a defense that will probably be simply outmanned. The Cards on offense could be as good as anyone...if they had an offensive line. Edgerrin James will begin learning that the hard way. Still, the Cards win this one because they're playing at home in front of a very rare sellout crowd...by 3.
In the Media Game of the Week, it's simply Manning versus Manning. Can the Younger outplay the Elder? The Colts return most of their starting defense, which is well-suited to playing on carpet (speed and quickness) but face a team capable of playing smash-mouth football. The Colts defense will have to play solid all-around defense, especially since Eli Manning is showing signs that he's of age, and ready to compete directly against his brother for the "best QB in the game" title. It won't happen this year, but it is about to start, and this game is as entertaining as it gets when looking at it from that perspective. For the Colts, they immediately find out whether their first round draft pick Addai is a worthy successor for Edgerrin James, and going against a stout NY Giants defense is a good test. On the flip side, everything suggests that New York is poised to make some serious noise in the NFC - a solid offense and a solid defense, and if Eli plays like everyone hopes he will, it takes a solid offense to a very good one. That will make this game interesting, and I'm giving the overall nod to the Giants...by 2.
On Monday, the first of two features Minnesota traveling to Washington. The Vikings are going to learn - and show on national television - that they aren't ready for prime time, and Washington will soundly defeat them. The Redskins defense is just too much for the Vikings rather iffy offense, and the Skins offense will look to pound the Vikings into submission. When you're weak up the middle on both sides of the ball, it doesn't bode well.
Finally, the night cap on Monday night features San Diego going to Oakland. This could be an interesting game primarily to see how the Third of 2004's Big Three QB Draft plays. Philip Rivers gets the start, and while he has a way to go before being compared to Eli and Ben Roethlisberger, it is his first chance to show doubters they are wrong about him. The stage is set for Rivers to have a strong first year - the Chargers have a solid offense line, great running back and good outside weapons (especially Antonio Gates). The Chargers defense will keep them in most games, again allowing Rivers to operate without the pressure of having to lead his team back from a late deficit. This game won't feature much of that, however - its unlikely the Raiders will be able to muster any offense against the Chargers far-better defense. Rivers gets a pass on this evening, and he helps the Chargers win an all-around solid game, winning by 11 in the end.
Super Star