Why the Celtics will win...
- Their front court is far more physical than the Lakers'. Kendrick Perkins is a freak who is starting to really see his potential. He really was the unsung star in the two games against the Lakers this year as he banged guys around in the paint and gobbled up rebounds. And that was before the Lakers got a little softer by losing Bynum and getting Gasol. Odom and Garnett are about equally prone to bang down low. But Pierce can eat up Radmonovic on the block and on the glass. Posey is a hard-nosed guy, as is PJ Brown. Save for Ronny Turiaf, the Lakers primarily bring skill guys off the bench.
- They have home court advantage in a 2-3-2 setup. I can't emphasize the last part of that enough. I really feel the 2-3-2 setup is stupid (why change it for the last round?) and that it gives a clear advantage to the favorite. As the underdog, it's tough enough to split the first two games, but even if you do, winning the middle three straight is nearly impossible. Don't get me wrong, it can be done. The Pistons, notably, did it against the Lakers in 2004, winning game 1 in LA and coming home to finish them off in 5. But in the 2-2-1-1-1 format, the underdog can take game 6 at home. Here, if the Lakers split in Boston and lose one of the 3 games at home, they need to win either the game 6 or the game 7 in Boston, and that seems like a tall order.
- Paul Pierce loves to play the Lakers. For some reason, Paul Pierce relishes playing his hometown Lakers. It's not just his scoring that sees a bump, but his defense is noticeably more focused and he makes a concerted effort to make aggressive moves to the basket. He and Kobe have essentially cancelled each other out in most games head to head. Not too many guys can say that.
- Kobe Bryant plays terribly (for his standards) against the Celtics. Sure, Kobe's put up big numbers against them, but look at his shooting percentages. One game in particular sticks out to me. Kobe set his personal record for FGA in a game with 47 (!) against the Celtics in 2002, but only scored 40 points on those 47 shot attempts. In two games this year, Kobe again shot terribly and seemed to be forcing shots. Kobe's personal feuds with PP and Ray Allen seem to get him to lock in on shooting and forgetting what has made the Lakers successful this season and that's him spreading the wealth. And in all the games I've ever watched Kobe play, he only seems to have problems guarding and being guarded by 2 players: one is LeBron James, the other is Paul Pierce.
- Fisher has problems with quick point guards, and Rondo is about as quick as they come. I will admit Fisher did a pretty good job on Iverson and on Tony Parker, two pretty quick guys. But I was truly confounded that Iverson and Parker settled for as many jumpers as they did when Fisher notoriously has problems staying in front of quick guards all the way to the hoop. Rondo, because he simply can't shoot, is unlikely to make the same mistake.
- The Lakers' sole backup at the 4 and 5 spot is Ronny Turiaf. Ouch. Not to say Ronny isn't useful; he is very useful and is a huge burst of energy off the bench. But against a team with a physical rebounding frontcourt like the Celtics, this may be an issue if Pau and WHEN Lamar gets into foul trouble. I guarantee at least 2 games where Lamar has to sit early in the 2nd after picking up an early 3rd foul.
- The Celtics slow it down and play terrific help defense. Saying "Defense wins championships" is so clich
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