Throw out the records from last year.  Forget the hype that surrounds up and coming programs.  Don't count your chickens quite yet.  Not so fast my friend...it is OldSkewler's Big 12 North Preseason Prognostications.  If you see something you don't like just remember that I'm just some schmuck with nothing better to do than to recycle stats and make lame-brained predictions that are correct  about 50% of the time.  At least I use lots of pictures.

From as far North as the Niobrara river to as far South as Rio Grande, and West of the Mississippi to East of the Colorado the schools of the Big 12 are gearing up for what has been anticipated as one of the best seasons this young conference has experienced.  The Big 12 enjoyed a stellar season last year with 3 top-5 teams throughout the year.  Instant credibility is what Missouri and Kansas gave to the underperforming Northern Division.  Kansas State and Colorado had a big win over a top 10 and top 5 teams respectively.  The Wildcats beat up on number 7 Texas in Austin while the Buffaloes edged number 3 Oklahoma in Boulder.  Texas Tech stunned us all with an amazing win over the unstoppable Sooners ranked number 4.  Two years removed from the National Championship game over USC, Texas reminded us that they still have the PAC-10's number when they beat up on Arizona State 52-34.  OU came out on top in the Big 12 with a huge win over number 1 Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.  That is all fine stuff, but it is yesterday's news.  The Big 12 has much to live up to this year.  I have listed the teams in the order they finished last year in the Big 12 North.  At the end of the post I give my predictions on where they will finish.

Missouri is the hands down team to beat this year in the North.  Last year's Heisman finalist, Chase Daniel, is back for his senior season. The defenses of the Big 12 are preparing.  Make no bones about it, Daniel is the QB everyone loves have on their team and everyone hates to play against.  Another big-time returning starter is sophomore WR Jeremy Maclin.  This kid is quick and fast.  He can run tight routes and catch just about anything that gets near him.  Good news for the Tigers, bad news for everyone else. 

Missouri seems to have had some big losses at TE and RB, but the reserves are no slouches and should fill in nicely.  The phenom Martin Rucker is gone at TE.  Who is going to replace one of the biggest, strongest weapons the Tigers had?  How about 6-foot 6-inch 245 pounder Chase Coffman.  At the svelte weight of 245, chasing Chase may prove to be a difficult task.  At 6-6, getting around that stiff-arm and bringing him down is a completely different problem.  Cotton Bowl record holder at 281 yards rushing RB Tony Temple is also going to be missed.  It seems to be a 2-horse-race between Jimmy Jackson and Derrick Washington.    

The biggest obstacle Missouri has to overcome on offense is the loss of C Adam Speiker and LT Tyler Luellen.  It seems that through graduation and early departures to the NFL Missouri has been left with a gaping hole at those two positions.  Much of the success Missouri enjoyed on the ground was due to outstanding O-line play.  If Missouri does not control the line of scrimmage, then it may be possible to rattle the unflappable Chase Daniel.  Sophomore C Tim Barnes and Junior LT Dain Wise will try to shore up the holes. 

Missouri's defense is returning 10 starters.  After a slow start last year, the Tiger defense came into its own during the middle of the season and played very well to the end.  It should be much more difficult to score on the Tigers this year.  The only loss the Tigers had was at NT.  Lorenzo Williams was a disruptive force on the line of scrimmage.  I believe that he will be missed.  To replace him is the 300-pounder Jaron Baston.  With 3 seniors on the D-line, they will be ok.

Interception receiver William Moore is back and ready to see if he can beat his own school record of 8 interceptions.  He will have many chances in the pass-happy Big 12.  The rest of the secondary is very solid.  Their tackle totals are misleadingly low from last year.  I attribute that to the outstanding D-line and LB play which will only get better this year.

 Kansas is the biggest question mark in the Big 12 North.  The only improvement on last season that the Jayhawks can have is an undefeated season.  If the Jayhawks go undefeated this year, there will be no detractors saying that they had too easy of a schedule to be considered in the BCS.  After the convincing win over Virginia Tech, I'm not sure how many detractors are still mouthing off.

Todd Reesing is back at QB for the Jayhawks.  This mobile, accurate passer is a nightmare to cover and contain.  Like Chase Daniel is for the Tigers, Reesing is the unchallenged leader of the Jayhawk offense.  Try these numbers on for size as a sophomore: Passing yards - 3486, TDs - 33, INTs - 7, QB rating - 148.81.  Not too shabby. 

Kansas has to perceiver through some very key losses on the offense starting with the stand-out RB Brandon McAnderson.  He will be tough to replace, but Jocques Crawford is ready to give it a go at RB.  Crawford should do well to compliment the elevated passing acumen of Reesing.

The receivers should be fine.  Dezmon Briscoe performed well at times, but he was inconsistent.  He will be a good compliment to Dexton Fields.  Losing Marcus Henry will have an effect on the big-play making abilities of the receiving corps as a whole.

The O-line is big, mean, and senior-laden.  They played well last year and should continue.  Three starters return on the line including standout senior center Ryan Cantrell.  The tackle positions are the two that need to have new starters this year.  The ever important LT position should go to senior Matt Darton.  It is up in the air as to how he will do as the starter at LT.

The defense returns 6 starters, but none of them are named Aqib Talib.  As far as I'm concerned, KU will have to prove themselves in the secondary in order to get over losing Talib.  I don't see them having as good a year overall considering the slew of returning passers in the Big 12 North.  They will need to get lots of help from their D-line which as a gaping hole from losing James McClinton.  D-line play was the weakest part of KU's defense last year.  It needs to make massive improvements this year if the Jayhawks plan to make a run for the Big 12 North again.  If there is one bright spot in the defense, then it would have to be at the LB position.    Linebackers Joe Mortensen and Mike Rivera should put up astronomical numbers this year.

If KU is the biggest question mark in the Big 12 North, then Colorado has to be a close second.  Showing flashes of brilliance against Oklahoma and Texas Tech last year, the Buffaloes could be on the verge of a breakout season and may be the Tiger's biggest competition in the North.

Coming back as the starting QB is Cody Hawkins.  Hawkins is a smart player with a great deal of accuracy.  His biggest knock is his arm strength.  His other attributes more than make up for the lack of arm strength.  Hawkins understands his role in the offense and he executes well.  Cody needs to work on being more consistent.  He has his top two receivers returning from last year in Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith to help him out with his consistency.  Big things are expected from the 6-foot 2-inch redshirt freshman Markques Simas. 

RB and the O-line are the biggest question marks on the offense.  The O-line is young and unproven.  Losing their 1,000 yard rusher in Hugh Charles will cause some problems for the Buffs.  Colorado seems to be putting much of their faith in true freshman Darrell Scott.  This kid may light it up, or he may flop.  It has been my experience that when a team is exclusively counting on a true freshman to produce, they are actually screaming for help at that position.  There are exceptions like Bernie Kosar and Maurice Clarett, but those are few and far between.  Please don't get me wrong here.  A team can expect a contribution from true freshmen, but to start a true freshman seems a bit desperate.

Colorado enjoys having their best D-line in years and a battle tested secondary.  The only loss on the line was DE Alonzo Barrett.  True freshman Curtis Cunningham should make an impact along.  NT Brandon Nicolas, DT George Hypolite and DE Maurice Lucas should be dominant in most games.  Terrance Wheatley is gone and will be missed, but CB Gardner McKay will step up.  DJ Dykes and Ryan Walters will start at strong and free safety respectively.  By far, the biggest loss on the D-side will be LB Jordan Dizon.  There is no one person in the country that could fill his shoes. Despite losing Dizon and Wheatley, this CU defense should be very good.

Kansas State was a bit of an enigma last year.  KSU gave away an early win to Auburn, smoked Texas in Austin, and dominated Colorado all last year.  Then, they dropped 4 straight to the likes of Iowa State, Nebraska, Missouri, and Fresno State.  Huh?  Taking a page right out of Bill Snyder's "Quick Fix" book in the recruiting chapter, Ron Prince has brought on 19 JUCO transfers.  WOW!  Employing this kind of graduate school for junior colleges technique has worked well for Coach Snyder in the past.  Personally, I don't think you usually get a full year's production from first-year starting JUCOs.  Either it takes them a while to get adjusted to the level of play, or they don't have the proper conditioning to last the entire year.  But hey!  What do I know?

The very highly touted QB Josh Freeman is back.  Without a doubt, he will be much improved this year.  After getting thrown to the wolves during his freshman season and starting his entire sophomore season, this season he should break out and become the dominant, game-changing QB KSU needs.  The Wildcats have a somewhat proven RB in junior Leon Patton.  He will be helped by JUCO RB Daniel Thomas.  WR Jordy Nelson will be missed tremendously, but big things are expected from JUCOs Aubrey Quarles, Attrail Snipes, and Brandon Banks, and Adrian Hilburn.  Returning at TE is junior Jeron Mastrud.  At 6-foot 6-inches and nearly 260 pounds, he is quite an obstacle to get through for a DE.  LG Logan Robinson is gone and will be missed.  He is being replaced by JUCO Wade Weibert.  Weibert is expected to be very good and probably the best JUCO of the bunch.  

Prince has brought in 11 JUCOs on defense to help shore up his secondary and D-line.  There is some consistency at LB though.  Reggie Walker, Olu Hall, and Antwon Moore are all very good.  With the addition of the JUCO wonder Grant Valentine, the Linebacker position seems to be stocked and ready to go.  The secondary needs some help.  Second-Team All Big 12 CB Justin McKinney is gone along with CB Byron Garvin, CB Bryan Baldwin, and FS Marcus Watts.  JUCO defensive backs Blair Irvin and Dustin The D-line is much the same story as the secondary.  Many guys gone and lots of JUCOs like DL Daniel Calvin and DL Josh Berard.

Bo Pelini is seen by many as the savior of the Husker tradition that was thrown away by his predecessor, Bill Callahan.  Many in the Husker Nation consider this to be a step in the right direction.  So far, Coach Pelini has said all the right things to win the hearts and minds of Cornhusker fans across the country.  All he has to do now is win, right?  That may be harder than expected with a schedule that puts Nebraska up against Texas Tech and Oklahoma on the road.  Not to mention Virginia Tech and Missouri at home.  By the way, Missouri has not won in Lincoln since 1978.   Nebraska doesn't return many starters on either side of the ball.  That is probably good news for the defense, but it is definitely bad news for the offense.

One bright spot on offense is that Joe Ganz will be starting at QB.  His three starts for the Huskers last year were nothing short of outstanding.  As a matter of fact, he enjoyed the most prolific day passing the ball for Nebraska ever.  His 510 yard, 7 TD, and 0 INT performance against Kansas State last year was good enough to put him in the Nebraska record books.  With the retention of the offensive coordinator from Callahan's regime, Shawn Watson, Nebraska doesn't expect to lose much in the way of a new coaching staff.  Nebraska will be hardest hit at the receiver position with the loss of Terrance Nunn and Maurice Purify.  WR Nate Swift is back and has proved himself a good possession receiver.  WR Niles Paul has shown some promise as a deep threat, but that overall package that Purify provided is gone.  RB Marlon Lucky will probably be the biggest impact player on the offensive side of the ball.  Lucky is an all-around threat with the ball.  He can catch.  He can run.  Watch Lucky run much more this year than last.  He will be running behind one of the better O-lines in the Big 12 North.  Senior LT Lydon Murtha, Senior LG Matt Slauson, and Junior C Jacob Hickman are all outstanding and have ample experience.  Sophomore RT Jaivorio Burkes started 3 games last year; Senior RG Mike Huff has waited patiently. 

On the D-line, everyone is back.  Logic would dictate that there should be a dramatic increase in production from the D-line this year.  Ndamukong Suh and Ty Steinkuhler are the tackles while Barry Turner and Zach Potter are the ends.  And somewhere between the O-line and D-line is Baker Steinkuhler, the much heralded 5-star recruit.  His role is still undecided, but it would seem that he could play either side of the ball effectively.  There are no starting linebackers back from last year which may or may not be a bad thing.  RB turned weak-side LB, Cody Glenn, has seemed to impress the coaches.  Walk-on, Tyler Wortman (6-3, 235) also made an impression this spring.  One can expect significant playing time from each of these two surprises.  In the secondary, sophomore CB Prince Amukamara could develop into the lock-down corner Nebraska so desperately needs.  Very solid play is expected from Armando Murillo at CB and Larry Asante at SS.  Another notable is junior FS Major Culbert who will likely be sharing time with Rickey Thenarse.  Overall, the secondary looks to be improved from last year.

Gene Chizik's crew had a couple of great wins late in the season last year against Colorado and Kansas State.  They also played OU to the wire only to fall flat late in the fourth losing 17-7.  There seems to be some promise in this team this year.  McCarney was able to get some decent talent when he was there.  Chizik has this group headed in the right direction.

First and foremost, Iowa State is the only team in the Big 12 North that is breaking in a new Quarterback.  QB Austen Arnaud got some very valuable playing time last year despite being 4-year starter Bret Meyer's back-up.  Arnaud is bigger and stronger than Meyer.  There will be a learning curve to be sure, but Arnaud seems to be poised for a decent season.  He is throwing to 2 of last year's top receivers.  WR RJ Sumrall and WR Marquis Hamilton are back, but the crew will miss last year's number one WR Todd Blythe.  There is some experience on this squad despite losing Blythe.  Arnaud gets to hand the ball off to RB JJ Scales.  He was suspended for the spring, but should have the starting job in the fall.  ISU seems to be relatively deep at RB with Alexander Robinson and Jason Scales waiting in the wings.  The offensive line may be the strength of the offense this year.  They have a ton of experience coming back and they did well late last season despite learning a new system.  The line is returning all but the RG.  Senior Joe Blaes seems to be the choice to start at RG.  There is not much depth behind him with 2 redshirt freshmen, so the Clones need to get the most out of Blaes as they can.

ISU has a decent D-line coming back.  The new starting NG has some considerable playing time.  Junior Nate Frere will fill in nicely for the departed NG Athyba Rubin.  The biggest question on the line will be Sophomore DT Bailey Johnson.  We will find out if he is indeed ready for the fire.  Linebacker is where ISU was hit the worst on defense.  Two of the top three tacklers from last year are now gone.  Senior LB Michael Bibbs and Junior LB Josh Raven need to replace two of the best players on the ISU defense in linebackers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks.  Good luck.  The secondary is returning just about everyone and should be much improved this year.  They have a lot of room for improvement from last year for sure.

Finally, my predictions for the Big 12 North are as follows.

1. Missouri - They are the team to beat with Daniel and Maclin back to wreck any defensive coordinator's Saturday afternoon.  The defense comes back confident with the way they finished the year.  Missouri is possibly taking over the Big 12 North for some time to come.  Finally, Missouri kids from St Louis and Kansas City are staying in Missouri to play.  Pinkel will be coaching the Tigers against OU, TX, or TxTech in the Big 12 Championship game this year.
2. Kansas - I don't like putting Kansas here at the number 2 spot, but until Colorado can show some consistency on both sides of the ball, I have to give the slight edge to KU.  I think that Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech really stated that the Fighting Manginos are for real.  I think their offense will be productive and consistent.  I think their defense will be improved, except for the secondary.  The loss of Talib will affect them more than people think.  KU's biggest problem is that this year everyone will see them coming.
3. Colorado - The more I think about it, the more I believe that CU may be the Mizzou's biggest threat for Big 12 North supremacy.  Hawkins will have this team as ready as they can be.  Consistency is the key.  I think the offense is potent and the defense can be dominant, but unless they are both playing well on the same day there will be some bad losses.  I think the defense will carry CU through a couple games, but it won't be able to carry them through the season.  The running game has to get going from the start of the season unlike last year.    
4. Nebraska - Bo Pelini's first year as the head coach (not interim) has been much anticipated by many depressed and humbled Husker fans.  The return of some position coaches has been a breath of fresh air.  Blah, Blah, Blah.  The fact of the matter is that it is Pelini's first year as a head coach.  Period.  There will be mistakes.  There will be disappointments.  Nebraska will have to earn every one of the 6 wins needed for a bowl game.  Virginia Tech, Missouri, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Colorado do not make for a very easy schedule this year.  I see Nebraska hanging tough with these teams, tougher than last year at least.  Maybe there is an upset in there somewhere, but I am having a hard time finding one.
5. Kansas State - Prince has put all his eggs in the basket of JUCO players this year.  Maybe it will work out, maybe not.  It has worked for Snyder in the past, but I don't know if 19 JUCOs is sane.  Freeman will give them credibility on offense and probably make his receivers better than they are.  If the running game can get going and they get some consistency and longevity out of the defense, then maybe they got another upset or two in the works this year. 
6. Iowa State - Chizik will see improvement in his squad on the defensive side of the ball for sure.  The question lies with how quickly QB Austen Arnaud can get up to speed as the only new starting QB in the Big 12 North.  I think it will be a battle between Kansas State and Iowa State for the bottom of the division.  How fitting that KSU is the last game on the schedule for Iowa State this year.