Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune had a very good article discussing this point. Here is an excerpt from that article:
Did the Bears pay fair value for Cutler? History says they did.
And history also says the Cutler deal was one of the biggest in NFL annals involving veterans.
Here is a look at similar trades since the 1970 merger.
1972: The Vikings get then six-time Pro Bowl quarterback Fran Tarkenton back from the Giants at age 32 for a 1972 first-round pick, a 1973 second-round pick, Norm Snead, Bob Grim and Vince Clements.
1973: The Eagles acquire then 33-year-old quarterback Roman Gabriel from the Rams for two first-round picks and a third-rounder.
1974: The Eagles trade with the Bengals for linebacker Bill Bergey, giving up three first-round picks, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
1974: After losing his starting job with the Rams, quarterback John Hadl is dealt to the Packers for two first-round picks, two second-rounders and a third-rounder. At 34, his best football was behind him.
1976: Then-29-year-old quarterback Jim Plunkett goes to the 49ers from the Patriots for three first-round picks, a second-rounder and Tom Owen.
1978: The 49ers acquire running back O.J. Simpson from the Bills for first-, second-, third- and fourth-round picks.
1981: A contract dispute forces the Chargers to trade wide receiver John Jefferson to the Packers for a 1983 first-round pick, two second-round picks, the option to swap first-round picks in 1982 and Aundra Thompson.
1982: The Browns get linebacker Tom Cousineau from the Bills for two first-round picks.
1987: Running back Eric Dickerson goes to the Colts from the Rams for two first-round picks, two seconds and Greg Bell.
1990: In the most regrettable trade in NFL history, the Vikings acquire running back Herschel Walker and four draft picks from the Cowboys for five players, three first-round picks, three second-round picks, a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick.
*side note from ObliQ: Those draft picks eventually turned into the Hall of Fame "Triplets" Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, & and Michael "Cocaine & Women" Irvin.
1998: Defensive lineman Sean Gilbert goes to the Panthers from the Redskins for two first-round picks.
2000: The Bucs get wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson from the Jets for two first-round picks.
dpompei@tribune.com
ObliQ's take:
It's amazing to me how most Lions' and even Packers' fans are saying that this was a trade that needed to happen, when most of the Vikings' fans I talk to act like the Bears got robbed. That is ironic since the Vikings did what is the consensus "most regrettable trade in NFL history". Also, they ended up grossly overpaying for wide receiver Bernard Berrian, giving him a $43 million contract with $16 million guaranteed. His stats were no different from what he gave the Bears a year earlier for 1/10 the money, so who really overpaid?
To me, draft picks are like poker chips at a casino. They are worth absolutely nothing until you cash them in. Since 1995, the only Bears 1st round draft picks to amount to anything are Brian Urlacher, Tommie Harris, & Greg Olsen. The jury is still out on Chris Williams. The busts include the likes of Cedric Benson, Michael Haynes, David Terrell, Cade McNown, Curtis Enis and, the biggest bust of them all, Rashaan Salaam.
As for the draft, based on history the Bears' chances of acquiring an impact wide receiver in the second round are not very good.
In the last 10 years, there have been 42 receivers taken in the second round. In their rookie seasons, they have averaged 26.8 catches for 345.7 yards. Or 1.6 catches and 21.6 yards per game.
Only one of them - Boldin - had a 1,000 yard season or made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Only eight caught passes for more than 600 yards as rookies. Only two of them - 4 percent - have made the Pro Bowl in any year of their careers.
So the lesson is second-round receivers don't always become what they are supposed to become. The Bears know what they are getting in Jay Cutler. In that situation, draft picks are for the birds, or in this case, Broncos.
Prospect