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    College Football Top 30: Penn State is O-U-T ... Eight games to watch

    Monday, September 24, 2007, 06:15 PM EST [General]

    (apologies for the poor formatting, it isn't doing well coming over from Word)

    This is getting silly. When a team loses to a bad opponent, even if they are ranked high at the time why is it so hard to drop them out of the poll? I have done it several times this season with #5 Michigan, #15 UCLA and now #8 Penn State. The reason is pretty simple. The Nittany Lions haven't beaten a team outside the bottom 40. When they start registering some wins, perhaps starting this week against Illinois, they can claw their way back in.

     

    This almost bothers me as much as a team beating another team early in the season only to be ranked behind them even though both are otherwise undefeated. It happened with Kentucky sitting behind Louisville last week, and was only corrected when the Cardinals fell to Syracuse.

     

    A similar situation is occurring with Georgia #15 ahead of #16 South Carolina in the AP poll. Remember that 16-12 win from the Gamers? I guess not. They only recall one week back, and apparently losing 28-16 to the #2 team in the country, on the road is really damning. On a side note, the Bulldogs don't have LSU on their schedule.

     

    Last week's ranking in ( )'s. NR = not ranked. W = watch list. At the end I will list three numbers in ( )'s which will be AP, USA and Harris rankings for comparison.

    #1 (1) LSU (4-0): It wasn't a perfect effort against South Carolina, but they completely shut down the run and were never in danger of giving up the lead in the second half. Next week they can rest up while whooping Tulane for the October 6 showdown against Florida. (2, 2, 2)

    #2 (2) USC (3-0): The offense was nearly unstoppable. In 10 drives they had a pair of Booty interceptions and otherwise scored on every possession. To be fair one of those was a drive that went backwards after a turnover and ended in a field goal. However, they are taking turns dominating via the pass and run. This week it was in the air where Booty was 80% on 35 throws with 279 yards and 4 touchdowns. The defense stuffed the run and they never punted. What more do you want? (1, 1, 1)

    #3 (3) Florida (4-0): It looked like they would pull away from Ole Miss when they opened up a 27-9 lead, but then let the Rebels close to within a field goal and left the game in doubt until the end. The only positive was that once that gap was 27-24 they allowed just 24 yards on 11 plays in stifling Mississippi's final two drives. Yes it was a sare, but no need to drop them over this. (4, 3, 4)

     

    #4 (4) Oklahoma (4-0): Do we really know more about this team after they blasted Tulsa 62-21? They like to run up the score. Having already built huge leads they have now posted 16, 20 and 20 points in the 4th quarter. They would have looked really bad for scoring again during their 54-3 win over Utah State which is the exception. Still, their defense has given up more than we're accustomed to. Tulsa has a high powered offense, but it's a mid-conference version. Speaking of which we can now eliminate Conference USA from BCS busting consideration since all of their teams lost within their first three games. (3, 4, 3)

     

    #5 (5) West Virginia (4-0): They absolutely drove the ball at will against East Carolina. White was nearly perfect passing (20/22) and accounted for 4 touchdowns. Slaton chipped in 153 yards, just your average day. There was no let down or "look ahead" to this week's crucial Friday night affair at South Florida. (5, 5, 5)

     

    #6 (6) California (4-0): It was impossible for them to look past Arizona to Oregon next week having lost to the Wildcats last year and they didn't. After a failed first drive they went 50, 77 and 47 yards on three touchdown capped possessions in a total of just 17 plays to build a 21-3 lead. After that they simply coasted. Their defense allowed a lot of underneath yardage which is their strategy. This week in Oregon is a huge game in the Pac-10 race. (6, 6, 6)

     

    #7 (7) Ohio State (4-0): Squashing Northwestern 58-7 proves they are right where I expected them to be at this point. The defense has been going well all year and now the offense is starting to catch up. The schedule laid out perfectly for them to warm up. It is starting to look like they will quietly coast to a spotless record until November. (8, 8, 7)

     

    #8 (10) Oregon (4-0): Let's face it, after building a 21-3 lead heading into the second quarter they got caught looking ahead to Cal. Stanford burned them for 4 unanswered touchdowns. Then the Ducks decided enough was enough, closing the half with a field goal and outscoring the Tree 31-0 in the second half. Dixon proved he isn't just a scrambler, completing 75% of his 36 throws for 367 yards and 4 touchdowns without a turnover. Stewart had 160 yards on the ground at 8.4 per carry. Now it's all on the line in one game. (11, 12, 10)

     

    #9 (9) Boston College (4-0): More Matt Ryan with 356 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. It is hard to get excited about their efficient offense considering the opponent was Army. Their opponents won't be any tougher in the coming weeks. (12, 11, 11)

     

    #10 (11) Texas (4-0): For once I wanted to see a team run it up and they did with 557 total yards in 3 quarters before shutting down the engine against Rice. They still don't look like a team capable of beating rival Oklahoma, but at least they look worthy of hanging around the top half of these rankings for a change. (7, 7, 8)

     

    #11 (14) Rutgers (3-0): Do they really need a week off after three blowouts? It does prepare them for tougher competition (Maryland, Cincinnati) and give their season ticket holders a free weekend in middle of 5 straight home games. There is nothing they have done thus far to make me believe they will not lose at least two this year. However, they are undefeated and until I know more I have to push them up. (10, 10, 12)

     

    #12 (16) Clemson (4-0): They piled up a ton of offense, 611 yards in fact, to humble N.C. State. These next two games playing Georgia Tech (road) and Virginia Tech will either expose them or validate the hot start. I am leaning towards them stumbling, but I will position them in place to prove me wrong. (13, 13, 13)

     

    #13 (13) South Carolina (3-1): It's impossible to beat LSU when losing the turnover battle 3-1. Blowing coverage on a fake field goal attempt ending in a touchdown doesn't help either. Two of LSU's TD drives were 30 and 32 yards. Offensively SC was 8/16 on third down against a very stout Tiger D. Dare I say this might be replayed in the SEC Championship? There, I said it. In fact I'd be surprised if it wasn't. No reason to put them down for a loss like that. (16, 18, 17)

     

    #14 (18) Georgia (3-1): In a game that featured 5 drives of 30+ yards for each team I figured the overtime could be a back and forth affair. Instead the Bulldogs stopped the Tide cold. Then they took care of business with a touchdown instead of trusting a kicker who had missed twice. It was a rugged road victory for a team that needed it. (15, 16, 15)

     

    #15 (12) Wisconsin (4-0): I have just about had enough of their antics. The Badgers were down in the fourth quarter against Iowa at home. Iowa? The defense played well, holding the Hawkeyes to 2/18 on third downs and 46% completions in the passing game. P.J. Hill was mediocre running the ball, but pivotal in the drive that gave them the lead. They feel like a ticking bomb ready to go off. It might happen this week against Michigan State. (9, 9, 9)

     

    #16 (17) Hawaii (4-0): No Brennan, no problem in a 66-10 win over Charleston Southern. Two backups combined for 363 yards and 5 touchdowns to lead the way. Defensively they stopped the run against an overmatched team. I don't know Brennan's status, but they might not need him at Idaho or versus Utah State. (19, 17, 18)

     

     #17 (19) Kentucky (4-0): Their 42-29 win at Arkansas was not easy, and certainly not decisive. Defensively they really turned it on in the second half, limiting Arkansas drives to no more than 29 yards or 6 plays. Their own offense covered 80, 53, 62 and 68 on various drives although they scored just 14 points due to a fumble and missed field goal ending those possessions. Ultimately they made fewer mistakes (barely) and at least for another week (Florida Atlantic) they can keep dreams of an SEC title alive. Then it's at South Carolina prior to LSU and Florida coming in. (14, 15, 14)

     

    #18 (21) South Florida (3-0): There was no looking past North Carolina. They stifled the Tar Heels 37-10, allowing just 161 total yards and a garbage time touchdown. The moment of truth is against West Virginia this week and until there this is nothing else to say. Friday night everyone will know who the Big East favorite is. (18, 18, 20)

     

    #19 (15) Alabama (3-1): With the pressure on in the fourth quarter down 20-10 they mounted two huge drives. The first went 61 yards on 14 plays for a field goal. The second lasted 10 plays, covered 88 yards and tied the game with a touchdown. Then came overtime and the wheels came off with a 0 yard drive resulting in a field goal. This isn't an overnight process. They will need to be prepared for a trip to Florida State this week. (22, 24, 22)

     

    #20 (23) Cincinnati (4-0): They bullied Marshall all day, even getting some backups into the act. I don't like the third down conversions (2/9) but they only punted twice (0/2 on fourth down contributed to that). With a lot of offense this is a team I see giving Rutgers plenty of trouble in two weeks to start Big East play. (24, 27, 27)

     

    #21 (28) Arizona State (4-0): They spotted Oregon State a 19-0 lead before unleashing their offense. It was 44-13 from there and in the fourth quarter the outcome was never in doubt. The game was won on turnovers, a 6-2 edge by the Sun Devils who were out gained 514-396. They won't be able to dig out of holes like this against many conference foes, but could stay undefeated in trips to Stanford and Washington State followed by a home game against Washington. (23, 26, 23)

     

    #22 (W) Missouri (4-0): The offense rolled right over Illinois State, but the defense gave up their fair share as well. Not just in the fourth quarter of their 38-17 win either. With some high scoring teams in the Big XII to contend with it won't be long before their record is blemished, probably multiple times. (20, 20, 21)

     

    #23 (W) Virginia Tech (3-1): Their offense is going to cause them at least two games before their season is over. Even in a 44-3 win over William & Mary they put up only 282 yards. Their schedule is not daunting, and the Coastal division is weak so we'll rank 'em to see what happens. I'm obviously not as convinced as the pollsters. (17, 14, 16)

     

    #24 (W) Kansas (3-0): Seven of my ranked teams losing to unranked teams gives me the chance to have some fun by propping up the Jayhawks. How does 214-23 strike you for a total margin of victory this season? Their victories over Central Michigan and this week's 55-3 destruction of Florida International were both by more impressive margins than Purdue (now 4-0) and Miami, FL over those respective teams. (33, 31, 30)

     

    #25 (22) Nebraska (3-1): Their defense played like the USC Trojans were still on the other side of the ball. I suppose the important thing is winning the game, but giving up 606 total yards and 9/15 third down conversions against a team that escaped Navy 34-31 last week is a red flag. Sam Keller made a lot of big throws to lead the comeback and now we'll see how they do in Big XII play. (25, 22, 24)

     

    #26 (W) Miami, FL (3-1): Wow. It doesn't say much for the depth of the Big XII when one of their better teams comes into the Orange Bowl and gets cracked by a Hurricane team just trying to stay afloat in the weak ACC. Let's give some credit to Miami too. They picked it up offensively and benching Kyle Wright seems to be the spark he needed because he was sharp (21/26 277 yards 2 TD, no INT). I still say they lack the offensive firepower by far of the teams we are used to them fielding, but this was a very nice win for them. At 5-1 after beating Duke and North Carolina (road) we might be talking about them as a threat for the ACC title game. (27, 29, 28) 

     

    #27 (NR) Connecticut (4-0): At what point do we start taking the Huskies seriously? Next week is Akron, and then they have an off week. Undefeated in mid-October? I don't think they have the muscle to hang with the better Big East teams, but they do get Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers at home. The bad news is that these games com on consecutive weeks. (36, NR, 35)

    #28 (20) Michigan State (4-0): Suddenly they are a factor in the Big Ten and will stay that way if they can win at Wisconsin this week. Their play thus far this season has been relatively uninspired against suspect competition so it will be a big litmus test. It was a bit of a black mark for them to allow Notre Dame's offense their first two touchdowns of the season. (28, 23, 25)

     

    #29 (W) Purdue (4-0): Defense is definitely optional for the second tier teams in the Big Ten and the Boilermakers are no exception. Painter had 338 yards passing and 3 touchdown tosses. The team has averaged 48.5 points per game which certainly bodes well for them beating offensively challenged Notre Dame this week so I should just rank them now in advance. Then it's Ohio State and we find out where they are. (26, 25, 26)

     

    #30 (W) Illinois (3-1): This week against Penn State and next week against Wisconsin the Fighting Illini have a chance to stir up the Big Ten race. This is certainly a conference without a lot of strength beyond Ohio State so perhaps it is ripe for the picking. (NR, NR, 41)

    Dropped out:

    #8 Penn State (21, 19, 19)

    #24 Louisville (NR, 33, 33)

    #25 Texas A&M (31, 30, 32)

    #26 Arkansas (32, NR, 34)

    #27 Air Force (NR, 42, NR)

    #29 Texas Tech (NR, NR, 43)

    #30 Washington (NR, NR, 44)

    Watch list: 

    Boise State (2-1) NR, 32, NR

    Florida State (2-1) 34, 36, 37

    Michigan (2-2) 30, 34, 31

    Mississippi State (3-1) NR, 43, NR  

    UCLA (3-1) 29, 28, 29

    Virginia (3-1) 38, 37, 36

    Wake Forest (2-2) NR, NR, NR  

     

    EIGHT GAMES TO WATCH:

     

    Southern Miss (2-1) @ Boise State (2-1): We might look back and call this the biggest out of conference game between two non-BCS teams. Conference USA is an embarrassing 12-23 against outside competition. That leaves Southern Miss in good position to possibly run the table. If they can tack on a win over a team capable of winning the WAC it might be an interesting storyline to follow. Their lone loss was 39-19 at Tennessee, a team who could rally in the SEC. Boise State is in basically the same position, only they have the benefit of being able to beat Hawaii late in the year to pad their bowl resume. This will be a good one to watch on Thursday.

     

    West Virginia (4-0) @ South Florida (3-0): The way Louisville's defense is playing and considering how we're not sure if Rutgers is really that good (see next game) this might wind up being the game to decide the Big East. Last year the Bulls went up and smacked the Mountaineers 24-19. It was a sneak attack, and this time West Virginia will be ready. Including this game South Florida has a much friendlier conference schedule, facing Cincinnati and Louisville at home while West Virginia still has to travel to Rutgers and Cincinnati.

     

    Maryland (2-2) @ Rutgers (3-0): I just don't believe in the Scarlet Knights yet. It's fine that they are dominating bad teams early. Penn State was too and look what happened to them in Michigan last week. The Terps failed their first two tests against good teams, losing 31-14 to West Virginia and 31-24 at Wake Forest the past two weeks. However, they will be by far the best team Rutgers has played this year.

      

    Penn State (3-1) @ Illinois (3-1): I have decided the Big Ten has one "A" team in Ohio State. After that are a bunch of teams fluttering between "B-" and "C-". This game will decide which team is ready to fight among the six or seven such teams trying to finish in the top half of the conference behind the Buckeyes.

     

    Alabama (3-1) @ Florida State (2-1): The ACC is on the ropes and the Seminoles have a great opportunity to score a win. They had a week off and face a really tired Alabama team coming off an exhilarating 41-38 win over Arkansas and 26-23 overtime loss to Georgia. Could Florida State sneak up and bite them?

     

      

    Michigan State (4-0) @ Wisconsin (4-0): If the Badgers want me to, well, stop badgering them they need to win this game and do it convincingly. The Spartans meanwhile have a golden opportunity to step into the national spotlight with a road victory. They weren't even close to the top 4 discussion before the season began with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State (in some order) expected to top the conference. Now it is wide open from #2-#7.

    Kansas State (2-1) @ Texas (4-0): The Longhorns have already had two scares this season and now face possibly the best team on their schedule thus far. Making matters worse is the possibly of looking past the dangerous Wildcats towards Oklahoma next week. From Kansas State's point of view this could be a monster win because they don't face the Sooners in conference play. They also don't get the toughest games (at Nebraska, Missouri) until their final two Big XII contests in mid-November. By then dare I say they might be 8-1? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.

    California (4-0) @ Oregon (4-0): With all due respect to West Virginia-South Florida this is clearly the game of the week. It's a shame it couldn't be played next week to form a triple header with Oklahoma-Texas and LSU-Florida. Truly it is equally important in the Pac-10 even if (unlike those two) it doesn't involve the conference's best team. The winner might be the first team to reach 48 points the way these defenses and offenses are playing. Last year in Berkeley the Bears really manhandled the Ducks. It was ugly. Their defense lost three starters to the NFL and has since lost a step. Their offense is more dangerous than ever even after losing #12 overall pick Marshawn Lynch though. Oregon's fans will be rocking and this should be a close one.

    0 (0 Ratings)

    College Football: Top 30 and week 4's Top 7 games to watch

    Saturday, September 15, 2007, 11:18 PM EST [General]

    A lot of movement and each week we find out more and more about these teams. As you can see I am not afraid to shuffle teams up. After holding my top 7 plenty of teams saw their rankings change and 8 teams jumped into my new expanded 30 team look.

    Last week's ranking in ()'s. NR = not ranked. W = watch list.

    #1 (1) LSU (3-0): Have you heard the news? This defense is pretty good. Middle Tennessee State was coming off a game scoring 42 points on Louisville. They were held to 89 total yards and suffered 6 sacks while being shut out this week. LSU got everyone other than the water boy involved on offense. Now Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team comes in as the next team trying to break them down. Good luck with that.         

     

    #2 (2) USC (2-0): A lot of their doubters were silenced after they blew away the 'Huskers in Lincoln. This offense can move the ball at will and their defense makes a lot of plays, especially when they need to. Having an early week off might have hurt them while LSU has dominated so thoroughly. Over the next five games they will have plenty of time to show off before a back weighted conference schedule kicks in.    

     

    #3 (3) Florida (3-0): In their second big road game this season Tennessee again quit in the late going. This time the Gators were the recipient as they turned a tight 28-20 lead into a total blow out. I'm not sure they really blew away the Vols any worse than Cal, they just took more of an interest in running up the score. The games were similar though as both had touchdowns on punt and fumble returns. If Cal goes ahead and sneaks in from the 1 they win 52-31, Florida won 59-20.    

     

    #4 (4) Oklahoma (3-0): I'm not sure what to make of this team rolling up big scores, but at least this week they didn't pad it in the fourth quarter (no scoring). Miami, FL is a contender in name only these days so I still see the Sooners as untested. It won't change on the road the next two weeks (Tulsa, Colorado). As usual the season comes down to the Texas game.      

     

    #5 (5) West Virginia (3-0): Finally we saw them against a BCS conference foe and it was their most impressive showing in front of a national audience. Clearly this is not a team that will walk to an undefeated record as many of us thought they might before the season began, but now we know defenses won't just have to deal with Slaton and talented quarterback White running the ball. Devine and Schmitt carried it 9 times for a mere 182 yards including runs of 76 and 44 yards respectively. One more tune up and it is off to South Florida for a big one.  

     

    #6 (6) California (3-0): Facing an opponent that just took ranked Hawaii to overtime the Bears flexed a little muscle on defense. Eight of the 14 times Louisiana Tech had the ball they were done in three plays, and 11 times they were finished in no more than six plays. Offensively it was just another typical effort from them. Longshore's day (66% 231 yards, 2 TD) was marred by a couple of bad throws, but Forsett ran over them for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns. Conference play follows and everyone wants to see them go up to Oregon in two weeks.  

     

    #7 (7) Ohio State (3-0): Beating a BCS conference team on the road answered a lot of questions. They forced four turnovers and made Locker look bad. This was a significant win because next up the Buckeyes draw three bad Big Ten opponents and then Kent State meaning they will continue to improve as the wins pile up.  

     

    #8 (9) Penn State (3-0): It was not a shootout against Buffalo. The score was 31-3 at the end of the third quarter before they coasted home. No need to get someone hurt with two conference road games (Michigan, Illinois) on deck. Not much else to say other than this is looking like the Big Ten champion and a potential national title game dark horse, worthy or not.    

     

    #9 (12) Boston College (3-0): I have to take some credit for being ahead of the curve on these guys. They totally controlled Georgia Tech on the road. Matt Ryan passed for 434 yards and completed 68% of his 44 throws without an interception. The game was slowed down by a ton of turnovers on both sides, totaling 192 yards marked off. Georgia Tech never threatened though and now we have to consider the Eagles for a serious run at the ACC title. Coming home for Army, Massachusetts and Bowling Green have to get them to 6-0. Traveling to Notre Dame won't slow them down so October 25 against Virginia Tech in primetime looks like a big one.  

    #10 (18) Oregon (3-0): In fairness they got a tired Fresno State opponent this week. The Bulldogs were returning from Texas A&M where they endured an exhausting triple overtime loss and then had to fly up to the Pacific Northwest. That's a tall task and the Ducks made them pay. Five of their seven first half drives ended in a touchdown. Jonathan Stewart is an underrated running back and was huge in this one with 165 yards and 2 scores. They will dust off Stanford (road) and face Cal in a game to decide which team has the inside track to unseat USC.   

    #11 (8) Texas (3-0): In three games against teams I wouldn't put in my current top 50 the 'Horns have yet to be impressive. Last week's win over TCU was more of a fight than the score would indicate, and they just lost again to Air Force. The latest debacle was a struggle at Central Florida where the weather (muggy, rainy) was about their only excuse. After dominating the Golden Knights' offense in the second quarter they looked bad on defense in the second half following some adjustments. I would favor Oklahoma by 21 against them right now.  

     

    #12 (10) Wisconsin (3-0): What is with this team? Tied at 21-21 with The Citadel at the half? Any team with "The" in front of it can't be good. On the positive side, they drove the football all day long. Unfortunately they also gave up drives of 72, 72 and 81 yards in the first half when you can't say their first team wasn't on the field. Last week offensively there were questions with a 13-12 win and now the defense should have their fans worried against another weak opponent. Fortunately for them the Big Ten has some really bad teams too, but I'm not even sure this team can beat Michigan State (now 3-0) in two weeks.   

     

    #13 (17) South Carolina (3-0): They rolled over South Carolina State the way a good team should, but if another opponent had been on the field with their 6 turnovers the outcome would have been different. It worked out because their defense got it back 4 times while their running tandem of Boyd and Davis combined for 236 yards on 27 carries. It is a testament to this defense giving up just 3 points in a game where their offense gave it away six times. Now that they have avoided the upset and letdown it is time for them to see where they really stand at LSU this week. Their defense might keep them in it.  

     

    #14 (20) Rutgers (3-0): Given their history I don't blame the Scarlet Knights for piling on against a team like Norfolk State. It took them some time to warm up though. After their first four drives they had 49 yards on 17 plays and led 3-0. Then it got ugly. Starting with their final drive of the second quarter and ending with their first drive of the fourth quarter they scored touchdowns 7 straight times they touched the ball. The initial six of those were no more than 3 play drives. I have to say, regardless of the opponent that is impressive. Perhaps more so, Ray Rice (12 rushes, 72 yards) was hardly involved.  

     

    #15 (W) Alabama (3-0): Wilson was cool with the game on the line as the Tide rallied after blowing a 21-0 lead to upset Arkansas. It is hard to win when you allow a tandem of running backs to ramble for 299 yards on 49 carries, but they did it. Each team gave it away 3 times and momentum was shifting constantly. In the end Alabama had the ball last. I think they are better than Georgia, Florida State (road) Houston, Mississippi (road) and maybe Tennessee. Could Saban be hosting his old LSU pals with a 8-0 team?  

     

    #16 (23) Clemson (3-0): The Tigers sputtered at times against Furman despite the 38-10 final score. This game easily could have been closer, but Furman kept starting drives well into their own territory, driving and then turning it over. Including a failed fourth down they had drives of 28, 20, 28, 53, 28 and 46 ended with a mistake play. Clemson has to be more dominant this week at N.C. State because they get the two Techs (at Georgia Tech, vs. Virginia Tech) the following two games. I am not sold yet, but there are not a lot of impressive teams to choose from here in the heart of the poll.    

     

    #17 (24) Hawaii (2-0): Do I punish them for needing OT to beat Louisiana Tech 45-44 after California destroyed the Bulldogs 42-12 this week? Or do I reward them for blowing away UNLV 49-14 a week after Wisconsin needed a late score to beat the Rebels 20-13? I went with a boost because a lot of teams are playing mediocre football and behind Brennan they should keep beating up weak teams. If they look bad I won't hesitate to drop them again.  

     

    #18 (19) Georgia (2-1): Routing a team like Western Carolina is just what they needed after the stinging loss last week to South Carolina. Now they settle into their SEC conference schedule with a pair of West foes (at Alabama, Mississippi). Can this team still compete for the East title? In three weeks at Tennessee we should find out.  

     

    #19 (NR) Kentucky (3-0): After hanging 50+ on two bad teams I wasn't sure what this offense could do against a BCS team. Perhaps Louisville's maligned defense is not the best test, but they drove the ball well during their 40-34 upset win. The bad news is that this was the start of a rugged stretch facing five ranked teams in six weeks. 

     

    #20 (W) Michigan State (3-0): In a conference where teams are losing to Appalachian State (Michigan) Florida Atlantic (Minnesota) and Iowa State (Iowa) there is a window of opportunity for the Spartans to be a surprise team. After going to punching dummy Notre Dame this week I think they could be primed for a huge upset at Wisconsin the following week.  

     

    #21 (21) South Florida (2-0): Getting a week off gives them the opportunity to avoid a letdown following their big win at Auburn. Some of the luster certainly dissipates after lowly Mississippi State also did in the Tigers on their home field. Now the Bulls get a weak North Carolina team to warm them up for a game that could turn their season against West Virginia. Last year they stunned the Mountaineers 24-19.  

     

    #22 (11) Nebraska (2-1): Let's get something straight, a lot of teams would get crushed by USC. They hung tough for almost a half, but were simply overwhelmed in the third quarter when the Trojans outscored them 21-0. Let's not forget what Arkansas did last year after losing big early to these guys. Nebraska should win their next four games and be in the mix for a Big XII title regardless of this outcome.  

     

    #23 (W) Cincinnati (3-0): Three wins by a combined score of 150-16 have the Bearcats feeling pretty confident these days even if four other Big East teams have garnered all of the attention. They could rout Marshall this week, and after that they go to San Diego State. Will they be 5-0 heading into conference play?  

     

    #24 (13) Louisville (2-1): Well it was a shootout and the Cardinals just couldn't get ahead of Kentucky. The Wildcats always had an answer in a game featuring two quarterbacks who will go on the first day of April's NFL draft. Both completed 65% of their passes, and Brohm's yardage (369) was padded by 68 yards on the failed desperation drive to give him an edge over Woodson (270). The TD advantage went to Woodson 4-2 and he got more help in the running game as well. Louisville had the game's only two turnovers, missed a field goal and failed on a two point conversion. Their mistakes cost them, but they should get back on track against Syracuse and N.C. State (road).  

     

    #25 (W) Texas A&M (3-0): After sputtering against Fresno State they kept the foot on the pedal with a 54-14 win over Louisiana Monroe this week. They had the ball 10 times and failed to score only once, when McGee threw an interception. All of those drives went at least 40 yards. This Thursday at Miami, FL we can get a nice comparison after Oklahoma wasted the Hurricanes 51-13 last week.  

     

    #26 (16) Arkansas (1-1): Spotting Alabama a 21-0 lead after one quarter on the road didn't seem to be a problem after they reeled off five touchdowns to take a 38-31 advantage in the final quarter. Ultimately their defense simply let them down as they allowed the Tide to drive 46 yards (12 plays) and 74 yards (9 plays) for a field goal and the winning touchdown. McFadden (199 yards rushing) and Jones (100) were fabulous, but not when you turn it over 3 times and give up 446 yards. Now they face five teams they should beat while trying to regain momentum.  

     

    #27 (NR) Air Force (3-0): It might be time to take the Falcons seriously. Their win last week over Utah looks a lot better after the Utes destroyed UCLA 44-6 this week. Now they have beaten TCU who was seen as the BCS buster from their conference. As I've said previously, if they can get a win at BYU this week then look out.  

     

    #28 (W) Arizona State (3-0): Looking at their upcoming schedule it could be a nice run for the Sun Devils if they can keep the offense up. Next in line are Oregon State, Stanford (road) Washington State (road) and Washington. Then they get the conference heavyweights, so it will be at least a month before we find out how good they are. Any week we could find out how bad they are with a loss.  

     

    #29 (NR) Texas Tech (3-0): The Red Raiders can score, we know that. After posting 49, 45 and 59 against weak opponents I see no reason they will slow down against the likes of Oklahoma State (road) Northwestern State or Iowa State.  

     

    #30 (22) Washington (2-1): Had the Huskies pulled off the upset of Ohio State on the same day Weis' Notre Dame team fell to 0-3 by losing 38-0 at Michigan the media would have had a lot to talk about. Instead they were undone by 4 turnovers in their first exposure to a big time college football game in quite some time. These things are to be expected. Ohio State is an established team that knows how to capitalize. After a sluggish first half led 7-3 by Washington it was a dismal second half by the home team. It doesn't get easier this week (at UCLA) next week (USC) or the week after that (at Arizona State) or that (Oregon). Brutal! 

     

    Dropped out: #14 Tennessee, #15 UCLA, #25 Maryland  

     

    New Watch list: Boise State (2-1) Georgia Tech (2-1) Indiana (3-0) Kansas (3-0) Miami, FL (2-1) Missouri (3-0) Virginia Tech (2-1) 

     

    GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK 

     

    The shuffling of last week probably won't continue this week. That's because a lot of the heavyweights have cupcakes lining up against them. Aside from a few big ones in the SEC and second tier games in the Pac-10 this should be a pretty quiet week. In other words, look for some shocking upsets out of nowhere.  

     

    Texas A&M (3-0) @ Miami, FL (2-1): This is not the Hurricane team we are used to. The weapons on offense simply are not there. This is bad news as they try to keep up with the visiting Aggies who have scored 139 points in three games including 18 during a triple overtime victory. I wonder if Miami can keep up with them, or if the ACC's reputation will continue to take a beating with yet another high profile loss.  

     

    Penn State (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2): This might seem like a reach, but the Nittany Lions last beat the Wolverines

    when exactly? Not in the last eight meetings, and not since 1996 to be exact. Michigan also showed some life in pounding hapless Notre Dame 38-0. If the Big Ten conference is going to gain respect, Penn State has to win this game by four touchdowns.  

     

    Georgia (2-1) @ Alabama (3-0): It was a great win for the Tide last week against Arkansas, but this is the SEC where there is no time to rest. I'm not very high on the Bulldogs and their backs are against the wall early. For Alabama it really feels like they are playing with house money. I expect them to avoid a letdown and keep it rolling.  

     

    Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1): Both teams were involved in high scoring games and now find themselves in a position to repeat the output. The Razorbacks have the edge running the ball, but it didn't help them against Alabama. Woodson will need another big day if the Wildcats want to be this year's Cinderella in the SEC.  

     

    South Carolina (3-0) @ LSU (3-0): Everywhere we look there are upstarts in the SEC and this is the third one standing at 3-0 with a big win under their belt. SC is also the least likely to turn it into 4-0 against this Tiger defense. Their only hope is to wind down the clock and play out of their mind defense.  

     

    Oregon State (2-1) @ Arizona State (3-0): The Beavers were embarrassed against Cincinnati, and returned the favor by belting hopeless Idaho State 61-10. Now is their chance to prove last year's 10 win season was no fluke. The Sun Devils can score and Rudy Carpenter's play has been pretty steady so far. Their Pac-10 schedule is back loaded so it is possible they will be the worst 7-0 team in the nation before drawing Cal.  

     

    Washington (2-1) @ UCLA (2-1): Before getting wiped out this week both of these teams had high aspirations. Now they head into Pac-10 play hoping to rebound. The Huskies will have a much tougher time of it because not only are they on the road, but their schedule is front loaded with USC, Arizona State (road) and Oregon up next. I wasn't sold on the Bruins before they were whacked at Utah. With a win here they can string together a run against Oregon State (road) and Notre Dame to regain their confidence.   

      

     

     

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    College Football: Top 25 and week 3's Top 10 games to watch

    Monday, September 10, 2007, 04:26 PM EST [General]

    Now that I have seen a lot of these teams play I will probably be expanding to a Top 30 next week. For now we'll stick to 25 with a watch list of 6. The SEC took their lumps this week with traditional power Georgia falling to South Carolina in conference play and Auburn's defeat to South Florida on their home field. The Pac-10 meanwhile looked the most impressive with Boise State's winning streak ending at Washington, Oregon mauling Michigan at the Big House and UCLA beating a good BYU team.

     

    Last week's ranking in ()'s. NR = not ranked. W = watch list.

     

    #1 (1) LSU (2-0): I knew they would beat Virginia Tech handily. I did not expect them to destroy the Hokies 48-7. It was start to finish domination from a team bent on making it to the national title game. South Carolina is their next test in two weeks, but there seems to be no stopping them until October 6 against Florida. They are looking scary. #2 (3) USC (1-0): A little early for a bye week and now they play nine weeks in a row. Going to Nebraska is an early litmus test to see if they are ready for another national title run or closer to the team that had to share their Pac-10 title last year. They draw three of four at home after that including Washington State, Stanford and Arizona who figure to be at the bottom of the conference. The lone road game is in Washington who will be worn out from dealing with Boise State, Ohio State and UCLA. #3 (4) Florida (2-0): They built a 49-7 halftime lead before cruising home against Troy. Now it's time for SEC competition when we find out if they are ready to defend their national title. Starting with Tennessee they get three of the next four against ranked conference foes. Right now we only know they can score against weak teams.

     

    #4 (8) Oklahoma (2-0): Punishing defense and a quarterback who has 8 touchdown passes in two games? This could be the year for Boomer Sooner. Revenge from the mid-80's was sweet in their 51-13 stomping of Miami, FL. Just looking at the third down conversions - Oklahoma 7/12, Miami FL 3/17 - will tell you how this game went. Three patsies are coming up and the hardest part of playing Texas October 6 might be that it will be their third consecutive game away from home (neutral site). #5 (2) West Virginia (2-0): They have outscored two teams they should be pounding 35-10 and 42-10 in the second half. This week the Mountaineers had three fourth quarter touchdown drives to cement their 48-23 win, but the game was in doubt before that with a 4 point lead. I like my juggernauts to punch a team in the mouth earlier. They better be ready to play at Maryland this week and again at South Florida on September 28. I expected more early dominance, not just running up scores to impress brain dead voters.  

     

    #6 (5) California (2-0): Everyone expected the Golden Bears to suffer a letdown on the road after their huge win over Tennessee and it happened. The defense really wasn't as bad as the final stat line. Of the 450 yards allowed 213 came in the final quarter, 132 after Cal had built a 34-14 lead. The real problem was their inability to run the football and their very deceiving 7.7 yards per rush. Their 232 yards rushing seems impressive, but 78 came from receiver DeSean Jackson and another 64 on a late scamper from relief back Jahvid Best. Lead rusher Justin Forsett had a 3.7 average with 15 carries for 55 yards. Look for them to straighten that out against Louisiana Tech and Arizona back in Berkeley the next two weeks before a stiff test in Oregon.  

     

    #7 (10) Ohio State (2-0): Obviously the defense suffocated overmatched Akron, holding them to an insane 3 first downs and 71 total yards. Their offense is going to progressively get better after sending so much talent to the NFL. Unfortunately it will have to happen this week because the Washington Huskies are feeling confident after beating #22 Boise State and Seattle is a tough place to play. Regardless of the outcome this is one of three contenders for the Big Ten title. The rest of the conference is looking like garbage.  

     

    #8 (9) Texas (2-0): They trailed TCU 10-0 at the half and it was tied heading into the final quarter so the final score of 34-13 is hardly indicative of how the game went. Their defense was a highlight, however, with 4 turnovers, 3 sacks and a touchdown while stuffing the run. McCoy isn't looking like a Heisman candidate, but there are two more patsies on deck for him to start his campaign.  

     

    #9 (13) Penn State (2-0): After Notre Dame lost 33-3 in their opener this became a tough game for them to be impressive. Instead they just held the Irish down on offense and scored enough to get the job done. It wasn't highlight material, but it didn't need to be either. Now they get a walk against Buffalo and what I think are three comfortable conference wins (at Michigan, at Illinois, Iowa) before their big October 13 showdown against Wisconsin.  

     

    #10 (6) Wisconsin (2-0): Their ugly 20-13 win at UNLV is yet another blow to the Big Ten's status. Of their ten drives six of them went for no more than 13 yards against a defense they should be pounding. The Running Rebels basically matched them punch for punch in the low scoring battle. Perhaps the good news is that next week's opponent Citadel is even worse in their final tune up for conference play.  

     

    #11 (12) Nebraska (2-0): At one point I found myself yelling at the television for them to convert a freaking third down. I believe they missed their first six, finishing 3/15. It was a tough assignment on the road against the defending ACC champion Wake Forest, but they were without their quarterback and their defense didn't really take advantage. He was picked off twice and sacked twice. I left the game feeling very ambivalent about them and grateful we will find out this week against USC how good this team really is. They will need to play a lot better just to make it respectable against the Trojans.  

     

    #12 (15) Boston College (2-0): After spotting N.C. State a 10-7 lead they scored 30 straight points and wound up winning 37-17. The 7 turnovers sure helped. One team was 29/54 for 352 yards at quarterback, the other was 15/34 for 141 yards, each throwing for 1 touchdown. Nope, Matt Ryan didn't have the big day and he needed the five interceptions his defense gave him plus 231 yards of rushing. I think the Eagles are rounding into form and this week at Georgia Tech is pivotal. Army, Massachusetts and Bowling Green at home follow then a trip to struggling Notre Dame. They could be in the top 8 if they win all of them.  

     

    #13 (7) Louisville (2-0): Brohm is looking like a pro quarterback after completing 64% of his passes for 401 yards and 5 touchdowns without an interception, but this is a junior high school defense. Allowing 265 yards rushing to Middle Tennessee State is an embarrassment. They might not run into an offense capable of keeping up with them until November 8 at West Virginia though. I can already place the over/under at 100 on that one.  

     

    #14 (14) Tennessee (1-1): Ainge had a nice day passing and Foster did his thing running, but the defense is looking shoddy. They were in a struggle for 3

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    College Football: Week 2 preview 10 games to watch

    Friday, September 7, 2007, 02:02 PM EST [General]

    After a fairly quiet opening weekend in college football filled with more blowouts than exciting games between heavyweights (Cal-Tennessee) or monumental upsets (Appalachian State beating Michigan) we get some pretty good ones this week. In no particular order the 10 best. This initially wasn't going to be a picks column, but then I decided to show who I thought would win and by how much. Then I added the current Vegas lines in ()'s. This is where I tell everyone not to gamble.

    Talk about excitement in week 2. I already have a team dropped out of my poll (Oregon State, yikes on the 6 interceptions) and another falling (Louisville, ever heard of defense?) based on the Thursday games.

      

    Nebraska @ Wake Forest: I have the 'Huskers #12 which is higher than the polls (16, 17) because I like what Keller brings to the table. This is a must win for the Demon Deacons if they want to build on last year's shocking 11-3 finish. More likely they are coming back down to earth. I like Nebraska by 14 (6

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    Norcalfella's Top 25 College Football

    Tuesday, September 4, 2007, 11:13 AM EST [General]

    A few quick notes on my post Week 1 rankings: For purposes of our blogger group poll the Top 20 is all that matters. Last week I only ranked 20. Either next week or the week after that I will probably start ranking 30 teams for a deeper look at who I think can compete. Right now I have seven candidates on my watch list for those extra spots.

    These comments will be longer than usual because they contain a lot of what I would have said had I posted this before the season regarding team's schedules and where they might wind up.

    Comments, barks, lunatic ravings, insults and unintelligible statements are welcome.

     

    #1 (5) LSU (1-0): Getting through the SEC this season will be considerably easier than it was last year because their tougher games are at home. Last year they went to Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas. Brutal. This season the Volunteers are off the schedule while two of the other three come into their house. Props to them for putting Virginia Tech on the slate, but again it's a home game I believe they win convincingly this week. This thought was cemented by the team's respective openers.

     

    #2 (1) West Virginia (1-0): Their schedule is a little more difficult than Big East rival and 2006 Cinderella story Rutgers, but they have twice as many Heisman candidates. Their QB/RB combo will wreak havoc running the ball and taking on two non-conference road games (Marshall, Maryland) shouldn't hurt their chances. This is probably the best bet in the country to finish undefeated with a home tilt against Louisville as the biggest road block. Nothing much to say about the opener other than 9 drives either scoring a TD or covering 50+ yards.

     

    #3 (3) USC (1-0): After the first three drives went for 80, 80 and 47 for touchdowns you can't blame them for easing off the pedal. This is a marathon and they know it. There are too some tough road games ahead, mostly in the second half of the campaign. Finishing undefeated will be tough. Early on only a visit to Nebraska stands in the way of a 6-0 start, but then they must manage to beat Oregon and California on the road during a stretch where they have four of five away from the Coliseum. Tons of talent, but they will slip up somewhere.

     

    #4 (7) Florida (1-0): As if playing in the SEC isn't hard enough, they won't be at home the entire month of October with visits to LSU, Kentucky and Georgia on tap. This is a front loaded schedule with only a road game in South Carolina looking like a test over their final four. By then I'm pretty sure someone will have knocked them off. Last year it didn't hurt them to lose one, but this year it will. Quick strike offense in the opener, but it was Western Kentucky after all. Seven of ten drives ended in a touchdown so they were sharp.

     

    #5 (8) California (1-0): The clich

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