Constructive comments, agreements, and disagreements are welcome. Just please try to add to the discussion and not just flame.

My assessment of the Big 12 following out of conference play. Here are some thoughts that I have after the first four games. Oklahoma and Missouri are as good as advertised. Texas is better than some may have thought. Texas Tech is untested but looks to be legitimate. Oklahoma State has impressed me the most in terms of surprising people, but I figured on them being 5-0 going into the Missouri game. Kansas is a little better than I originally gave them credit for, but their schedule will get them. Colorado is about what I thought they would be. I did give them one more conference loss (Nebraska), but their overall record is the same as my original prediction. Texas A&M's growing pains are going to be painful indeed.

North

Missouri                12-0 (8-0)- W's- All

Kansas                     7-5 (4-4)- W's- @ ISU, CU, KSU, @ NU... L's- @ OU, TT, UT, MU

Colorado                  7-5 (4-4)- W's- KSU, @ A&M, ISU, @ NU... L's- UT, @ KU, @ MU, OSU

Nebraska                  6-6 (3-5)- W's- @ ISU, BU, KSU... L's- MU, @ TT, @ OU, KU, CU 

Kansas State           5-7 (2-6)- W's- @ A&M, ISU... L's- TT, OU, @ CU, @ KU, @ MU, NU

Iowa State               4-8 (2-6)- W's- @ BU, A&M... L's- KU, NU, @ OSU, @ CU, MU, @ KSU

South

Oklahoma               12-0 (8-0)- W's- All

Texas                      10-2 (6-2)- W's- @ CU, OSU, @ TT, BU, @ KU, A&M... L's- @ OU, MU

Texas Tech            10-2 (6-2)- W's- @ KSU, NU, @ A&M, @ KU, OSU, BU... L's- UT, @ OU

Oklahoma State      8-4 (4-4)- W's- A&M, BU, ISU, @ CU... L's- @ MU, @ UT, @ TT, OU

Texas A&M            3-9 (1-7)- W's- @ BU... L's- @ OSU, KSU, TT, @ ISU, CU, OU, @ UT

Baylor                      2-10 (0-8)- W's- None

EDITED: I made this list pretty late at night, and after reading some of the comments and thinking about it a bit more I think I made a few errors. Kansas beating Colorado at home is a change. I'm not sure why I had that game the other way originally. I also gave Texas 2 more losses because they have a brutal 5 game stretch @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, @ Texas Tech. They also play @ Kansas. I don't see them only losing to Oklahoma in that stretch. Those losses are Texas Tech (didn't know they had 19 returning starters) and Missouri (decided Texas wasn't bringing back enough starters to take them in that one). The Longhorns could certainly win those games, but they still have a lot of other very tough games, so that's my reasoning for dropping their record. 

 

Here is my forecast of records for the Big 12 conference, minus the Big 12 title game. Feel free to comment and discuss. I would appreciate substantive comments instead of ones like, "WHAT!?!?! (insert team) is going to be (insert record)!?!?! NO WAY!!!" Feel free to disagree and comment about your disagreement, but try to add a little more to the discussion besides insults and disagreements without reasons. And as always, let's go Big 12!!

North

Missouri                       12-0   8-0

Kansas                         8-4     4-4

Colorado                      7-5     5-3

Nebraska                     5-7     2-6

Kansas State                5-7     2-6

Iowa State                    4-8     1-7

 

South

Oklahoma                    12-0     8-0

Texas Tech                   11-1    7-1

Texas                            9-3      5-3

Oklahoma State            7-5      3-5

Texas A&M                 6-6      3-5

Baylor                          2-10    0-8

 

 

I will probably make a revised Big 12 forecast after the non-conference schedule (after 4th game).

 

 

 

 

A quick look at the 30 biggest early season (first 5 weeks) Out of Conference games. These games will go a long way in shaping the lay of land for the college football season. After many of these games we will know what most these teams are bringing to the table.

Note: Auburn @ West Virginia is a week 9 game, which means it's not early season and not in the first 5 weeks.

1. Ohio St @ USC
- Ohio State looks to prove to the rest of the nation that it is for real. USC will try to defend its home field. Both teams have National Title hopes on the line. In addition to that, conference bragging rights are on the line.

2. Georgia @ Arizona St
- The first big test for the number one team in the land as they head to the desert to face the Sun Devils. ASU wants to show that they are a legitimate BCS threat. A win against Georgia would guarantee that recognition.

3. Illinois @ Missouri
- Two possible BCS bound teams meet up in week one. Many pundits have Missouri as a national title contender. A win against one of the top Big 10 teams would help to back up that claim, but a loss could put an end to that idea very quickly.

4. Alabama @ Clemson
- Clemson will try to show the rest of the nation that its National Title aspirations are not unfounded. Alabama will look to make a statement and add another tough team to the SEC casualty list.

5. Tennessee @ UCLA
- Tennessee has BCS goals. Winning against UCLA is crucial to those plans. UCLA will try to pick itself up off the mat this season. A win against a top SEC school would make believers out of many.

6. Oregon St @ Penn St
- Penn State returns many starters and has a Big 10 title and a BCS bowl game in its sights. Oregon State is one of the better Pac 10 teams. A strong showing by Penn State might introduce them as national players.

7. Miami @ Florida
- A storied rivalry between two Florida powers. Miami has fallen on hard times of late, but seem to be rebounding. Florida looks to keep its National Title hopes in tact. This game could announce the return of Miami, or reassure the dominant status of the Florida Gators within the state.

8. Kansas @ South Florida
- Kansas will face its first big test in proving that last season was not a fluke. South Florida reached unprecedented rankings last season. They will be looking to utilize that experience to grab a BCS spot. An early season loss most likely means the only route to the BCS for these two teams is a conference title, a tough accomplishment to say the least.

9. Arkansas @ Texas
- This game would look a lot better last season, but Arkansas is still a threat to Texas. Texas will try to show that the rest of the nation is sleeping on them. A BCS bowl game is in the Longhorns sights, but winning against Arkansas is a must.

10. West Virginia @ Colorado
- Colorado is a sexy pick to be much improved this season. A win against West Virginia would boldly announce that improvement. For West Virginia, they will be trying to show that their play will not be hampered by the change in coaching.

11. UCLA @ BYU
- The Cougars are a favorite for non-BCS conference school to gain a BCS bid. This is will be the second game in a row against a BCS conference school. If BYU is for real, they should dispel the Bruins fairly easily. A loss however, will bring an end to the Cougars BCS plans.

12. USC @ Virginia
- The general feeling is that Virginia will take a step back this season, but they are still a dangerous team for USC to face in week 1 on the road. A loss to Virginia would be devastating to USC's BCS plans, especially with Ohio State still looming.

13. Colorado @ Florida St
- Both teams seem to be on the road to redemption. The general consensus is that Florida State is further along that road, but that issue will be settled when the two teams meet at Florida State.

14. Utah @ Michigan
- An early season test for Michigan. Many expect Michigan to regress a little with their first year learning Rich Rodriguez's system. Utah is a tough opponent. This game could show that Michigan's transition will be smoother than expected, or that the growing pains will be painful indeed.

15. Virginia Tech @ Nebraska
- Virginia Tech will be looking to prove that it is a team to be reckoned with on the national stage. Nebraska will try to improve on last season's disappointing showing by defending its home field with a big early season statement.

16. Hawaii @ Florida
- Another game that would look better a season ago, but still intriguing nonetheless. Hawaii will be trying to show that it was more than just the Colt Brennan Show, and also have a better showing against an SEC school. Florida on the other hand, will simply be trying to make an early season example out of Hawaii.

17. Oklahoma St @ Washington St
- The Cowboys have a chance to be a top 25 team this season. Winning against Washington State could help back up that claim, but a loss would be quite damaging to their resume.

18. Appalachian St @ LSU
- Appalachian State will try to shock the world again. They figure to be big underdogs once again, though probably not as much as last season against Michigan. The Tigers defense of their National Title would end quickly with a loss to 1-AA Appalachian State.

19. Fresno St @ Rutgers
Fresno State is another non-BCS conference team with hopes of reaching a BCS bowl. This is the first of three games against BCS conference schools. If the Bulldogs don't find a way to win against a tough Rutgers team on the road, their BCS hopes will be ended in week one.

20. Michigan St @ Cal
- Cal will be trying to show everyone that last season's lackluster performance was a fluke. Michigan State will try to take its first step towards their first bowl game win in years.

21. Wisconsin @ Fresno St
- Another test for the Bulldogs. Fresno State has BCS dreams, but Wisconsin has bowl plans of their own. A loss ends any chance Fresno State has at a BCS bowl game.

22. South Florida @ UCF
- The Bulls have a shot a BCS game. Any out of conference loss probably means USF would have to win the Big East to reach a BCS game. This is an early season, in state road test for an up and coming team.

23. BYU @ Washington
- The Cougars first test against a BCS conference school. BYU figures to be the favorites over one of the bottom dwellers in the Pac 10, but anything can happen on the road. A loss ends BYU's BCS hopes.

24. Fresno St @ UCLA
- The last game for Fresno State against a BCS conference school. If Fresno State is undefeated at this point, a loss would be demoralizing considering they would have already beaten two BCS schools that most pundits consider better than the Bruins. The Bruins have bowl game aspirations. This win could be the difference between going bowling and staying home.

25. Miami @ Texas A&M
- Many expect Texas A&M to take a step backwards with a new coaching regime. Miami is supposed to take a step back towards dominance this season. This game could reinforce those beliefs or make people think twice about who's stepping where.

26. Michigan @ Notre Dame
- Notre Dame figures to be improved, but that isn't saying much. Michigan will most likely regress a little with their first year in a new system. With that progression and regression in mind, this should be an evenly contested game.

27. Oklahoma @ Washington
- It can be easy to overlook an early season contest against a low level opponent. If Oklahoma looks past Washington their National Title plans could be cancelled very quickly. It would also be an embarrassing loss for the Big 12.

28. Oregon @ Purdue
- Oregon lost some key contributors to last season's success. A road test at a mid level Big 10 team's house will show just how much, if any the Ducks have fallen off.

29. Virginia @ Connecticut
- The Huskies will be trying to prove that last season was not a fluke. They will be facing a Virginia squad that is out to prove that they haven't fallen as far as many seem to think.

30. North Carolina @ Rutgers
- North Carolina has a realistic shot at a bowl game this season. Rutgers should be favored in this game. A loss to North Carolina could be a major setback for the Scarlet Knights. A win will help the Tar Heels show they are for real.

An early look at how every NFL team would be performing if this were classroom.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 3-1: B+ Apparently they can just regroup from the TO debacle instantly, would have been an A+ if not for that collapse.

Dallas Cowboys 2-1: B Only loss was to a tough Jacksonville team, handled the Redskins and Titans easily.

Washington Redskins 2-2: C+ Seem to be finding a little bit of a groove. Impressive win over Jags, but a disappointing start.

New York Giants 1-2: D+ Granted they have faced a very difficult schedule, they are lucky to not be 0-3 right now.

NFC North
Chicago Bears 4-0: A+ Simply dominant. I admit I was wrong about how good the Bears would be, thought they would be a playoff team, but just because of a weak division. Now cleary the team to beat in the NFC and possibly NFL.

Minnesota Vikings 2-2: B- Promising start to season. Played Chicago very tough, but lost a game they need to win @Buffalo if they are serious about the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers 1-3: D Well they are terrible, there isn't much more to say. Beat the Lions.

Detroit Lions 0-4: F Very disappointing team. Defense is getting torched, offense seems to be finding its way.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints 3-1: A+ I definitely did not see this start coming. I knew they would be improved, but I did not expect them to be a legitimate playoff contender.

Atlanta Falcons 3-1: B+ Some may say the Saints game was a let down, but in retrospect I'm not sure why any of us thought they could win that game under the circumstances. Run game is dominant.

Carolina Panthers 2-2: C+ Appear to have saved their season. Started 0-2 and thankfully escaped Tampa Bay with a win to salvage the season. I'm not sure Steve Smith is the MVP, but I have never seen a WR as important to their team as he is. Not saying he is the best WR, but definitely the most important to his team's success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-3: F Actually not that surprised that they stink, they were one of my teams pegged to have a fantastically disappointing season. Doesn't look better from here with Simms out, but then again Simms is lousy.

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 3-1: C+ They just don't look that dominant. Looking at the teams they have beaten it is not that impressive, especially after seeing them against a good team, the Bears, and getting destroyed. Hasselbeck looks bad, Alexander and Morris have rushed for 2.9 and 3.1 yards per carry respectively. Obviously Hutchinson wasn't as important as Burleson.

St.Louis Rams 3-1: B+ Not many people expected them to be 3-1 at this point. The defense is leading the league in takeaways and Jackson is 2nd in the league in rushing.

San Francisco 49ers 1-3: C Absolutely crushed by the Chiefs, but it is obvious that the Niners are headed in the right direction. Defense will be biggest weakness this year.

Arizona Cardinals 1-3: F Again, a team that I am not surprised at all sucks, but the masses thought they would contend in the West. Once again I tell everyone that yes simply being the Cardinals is a good enough reason to assume they will suck. I will continue to say they'll suck every year and be right 99.9% of the time. The rest of you can get your hopes up again next year.

AFC East
New England Patriots 3-1: B+ Just when I was getting ready to dismiss the Patriots as a legitimate Super Bowl contender they just absolutely blast the Bengals. They obviously have some areas of concern, particularly playmaking recievers, but they have a two headed monster at RB and a guy named Brady.

Buffalo Bills 2-2: B Playing much better than expected, but are not a serious playoff contender. Definitely headed in the right direction though. And once again I ask people not to dismiss a QB that has not been around for at least three years.

New York Jets 2-2: B+ Many had them pegged as a team picking in the top 10 next year, but they are very close to being 4-0. A close game against the Pats and Colts, two playoff teams. In the future they will find ways to come away with wins in those games.

Miami Dolphins 1-3: F Without a doubt the most disappointing team this season. Escaped with a win against Tennessee, that should be enough information to let everyone know that they stink.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 4-0: A Defense is absolutely dominating and McNair and the offense makes just enough plays. I don't want to take an unnecessary knock at the Ravens, but the Chargers Schottenheimered that game away.

Cinncinnati Bengals 3-1: B Looked like possibly the best team in the league prior to this week, but the run defense is a glaring weakness that must be addressed.

Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2: C- Hard team to grade, they were the Super Bowl champs, but Roethlisberger is lucky to even be alive right now, there is no telling whether or not he will regain form this season.

Cleveland Browns 1-3: D+ Never really had a shot to finish anywhere but last in this division. A nice comeback win against the Raiders, but they still have a very long ways to go.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 4-0: B+ Looks like its not quite time to right off the Colts. The lack of a running game and a struggling run defense are obvious causes for concern, but they have Manning and that should be enough to take them to another January loss.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2: B- At the quarter point of the season it looks as if they have already lost the division. A loss to the Colts and a loss to a Redskins team that they should be able to beat if they are expected to be taken seriously.

Houston Texans 1-3: D+ The offense definitely seems to be headed in the right direction, at least Carr. The defense however has taken a giant leap, two steps, and a bound backward.

Tennessee Titans: F Terrible team, there isn't much more to say about them. Playing Young is the right thing to do, this team is headed nowhere this season. I would also like to see them get LenDale involved more, he is the back of the future.

AFC West
Denver Broncos 2-1: B- Defense is absolutely stifling, Plummer seems to be finding steady ground, but that being said, the offense must improve.

San Diego Chargers 2-1: B+ Probably should have won against the Ravens, but then again they didn't make the necessary plays to win the game. Defense is awesome. Looks like a playoff contender.

Kansas City Chiefs 1-2: C Can't really be too hard on them for losing without Green. Defense is surprisingly good. Looks to be 2-2 after this weeks game against the Cardinals. Green should be back in time for the Steelers the following week. Definitely still in the playoff hunt.

Oakland Raiders 0-3: F- Just terrible. Quite possibly the worst team I have ever seen. Better get up for this weekend game against the Niners and December 3rd's against the Texans, those look like they might be the only games they have a shot at winning. Keep watching everyone, the smell of 0-16 is in the air.

This is my 2006 NFC preview. Teams will be listed under several categories with varying lengths of explanation for that placement. Now without further ado, lets get to the rankings.

 

Playoff Bound

Carolina Panthers- The trendy pick to win the Superbowl, the Panthers have no glaring weaknesses. The loss of Will Witherspoon is worthy of note, but with the addition of Keyshawn Johnson, the Panthers have to be considered a playoff team.

 

Seattle Seahawks- While I have pure hatred of the Seahawks, they are going to make the playoffs. I expect the divisional race to be much closer this season. The losses of Steve Hutchinson and Joe Jurevicious will hurt the Seahawks, but the addition of Julian Peterson should help to improve the defense. The Seahawks are headed to the postseason in some way, shape, or form.

 

Probable Playoff Contenders

Dallas Cowboys- The addition of TO will almost certainly blow up in their faces at some point, but the Cowboys must be considered a playoff contender with a veteran QB, solid run game, formidable WR duo, and a solid defense.

 

New York Giants- The Giants are another team that must be considered a playoff favorite. Eli Manning is expected to continue in his maturation process, Tiki Barber continues to defy the doubters, and the receivers are solid. The defense remains mostly in tact with the addition of Lavar Arrington. The Giants and Cowboys will battle for NFC East supremacy.

 

Minnesota Vikings- The Vikings are one of the least flashy teams in the NFL. Go ahead and try to name a star player they have. They do however play in the weakest division in the NFL, and someone has to win the division. The Vikings are a safe pick to win the North because one can expect a decent offense and defense from the Vikings, which just might be enough to win the North.

 

Chicago Bears- The Bears are the defending North champions, but they are going to have to get better offensive production if they have plans of repeating that performance. The Bears really didn't do anything to improve themselves in the offseason, outside of the Brian Griese signing which may end up being huge. The Bears will need an improved offense and a ridiculous defense, but that is certainly possible. 

 

The Playoff Door Is Open

Tampa Bay- I am weary of the Buccaneers. They are relying heavily on the continued maturity of Chris Simms. If Simms does continue to develop at the QB position the Buccaneers should be in the playoff hunt until the end, but if he struggles the Buccaneers are in some serious trouble.

 

Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons are a very difficult team to get a read on. I could just as easily see them going 4-12 as 12-4. The Falcons should be in the playoff hunt though as long as Michael Vick can remain healthy and somewhat effective, the run game continues to be effective, and the defense plays well. If Vick struggles the Falcons are in trouble. While Matt Schaub may be a reliable back-up, Vick is still the hardest player in the league to gameplan for.

 

St. Louis Rams- The Rams had a very active offseason in signing Will Witherspoon, La'Roi Glover, and Corey Chavous, as well as the hiring of Scott Linehan as Head Coach and Jim Haslett as Defensive Coordinator. Addition by substraction may be the most important move the Rams made in the firing of the Mike "Madman" Martz. The offense figures to be more balanced which will help keep Marc Bulger on the field and Steven Jackson with the ball. The WR's are still among the leagues best and the defense figures to be improved with the veteran additions, rookie Tye Hill, and Jim Haslett.....and the fact that it can't really go anywhere but up.

 

Arizona Cardinals- The Cardinals have quite possibly the best collection of skill positions on offense, but a huge question mark is the offensive line. They must keep Warner on the field and open up some running lanes if they hope to make the playoffs. The defense figures to be middle of the pack, but if they slip it could spell doom for the Cardinals season.

 

Time to Burst Some Bubbles

Washington Redskins- The Redskins are a semi-trendy pick for the NFC East or a wildcard spot, but they are headed nowhere fast. Their QB is Mark Brunell, need I say more? Well I don't really need to, but I will continue. Their biggest offseason moves consisted of overpaying for Adam Archuleta, Antwaan Randle El, and Brandon Lloyd. The best signing of these three was Lloyd, a legitimate second receiver. Randle El and Archuleta were bad signings, mostly due to the dollar figures. They are counting on far to much from simply above average players. Archuleta signed the richest Safety contract in NFL history, he might not even be a top ten Strong Saftety. Randle El has scored 7 career TD's, that's right, 7. His best season was 2004's 43 catch, 601 yard, 3 touchdown performance. He is barely a number 3 WR. The Redskins have a tough draw being a mediocre team in a stacked division. If they were in the NFC North they would probably be the favorites.

 

Philadelphia Eagles- The Eagles are a team that is headed in the right direction, and by that I mean they have parted ways with TO. The recent addition of Donte Stallworth should prove to be a good move along with the offseason addition of Darren Howard, but the Eagles defense has lost a step and the run game is non-existent. They are in the same boat as the Redskins, a tough break being a mediocre team in a stacked division. NFC North rules apply for the Eagles as well.

 

Start Praying to Your Deity of Choice, It's Going to Take a Miracle

Green Bay Packers- The Packers are in some serious trouble. Brett Favre should not have come back, the run game is full of question marks, and the WR's consist of Donald Driver and a bunch of other guys. The defense should be a little bit better with the additions of AJ Hawk and Charles Woodson, but they needed so much help that a one year turn around is not happening.

 

Detroit Lions- The offense could be a surprise this season with Mike Martz getting a chance to work with talented Kevin Jones and Roy Williams. The offense will rely on improved offensive line play and consistency from the QB position. The defense seems to be in for a long season having made no considerable additions. The Lions appear to be at least a year away, if they ever get around to firing Millen.

 

New Orleans Saints- The Saints will be a very exciting team to watch this season with the additions of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush on the offensive side. The offense should be one of the better units in the league with those two key additions and the likes of Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn. The trouble with the Saints is the their defense, or lack thereof. The Saints defense is going to be a finely tuned touchdown-giving-up machine.

 

San Francisco 49ers- The 49ers appear to be making the right moves in the rebuilding process, but a 6-10 season for the Niners would be considered a huge success. The offense appears to have some skill position players in Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis, but the WR core is a bunch of "who's?" The defense is in the same boat as the Saints, they did nothing to improve themselves and actually may have gotten worse with the loss of Julian Peterson. Expect the high powered offense in the NFC to have some field days against the Niners.

 

Note: The Bears and Vikings are in the "Probable Playoff Contenders" category strictly because of the division they play in. I personally consider every team in the NFC outside of the Packers, Lions, Saints, and Niners to be better than the Bears and Vikings.