We're just three weeks away from the start of conference play in the Big Ten and one thing is for certain, the league is as deep as it's ever been. In recent years, that has not been the case.
For the last three seasons, the Big Ten has been extremely top heavy. Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin have battled diligently for league supremacy, while the rest of the schools have done their best just to remain competitive. In fact, Indiana and Purdue are the only other schools besides the "big three" to make it out of the first round in the NCAA tournament during this period. And they were both bounced rather easily in the proceeding round.
This season, however, expectations are high for several teams, including the last three Big Ten Champions (Illinois, MSU and Wisconsin). As many as seven teams (yes, you read that right) could make a legitimate run at a Big Ten Championship... some more legitimate than others.
Here is how it breaks down:
The Favorites
Michigan State -- The Spartans returned four vital cogs in their run to the Final Four last season. Junior swingman Maurice Ager and senior power forward Paul Davis have led the early charge for MSU, averaging 21.7 and 20.6 PPG respectively. While junior guard Shannon Brown and sophomore point guard Drew Neitzel have made significant contributions as well.
The Spartans survived a brutal early season schedule that included tough losses to Gonzaga and Hawaii, along with huge wins over Arizona, Georgia Tech and Boston College. In taking on such a difficult pre-season challenge, Head Coach Tom Izzo has prepared his talented squad for the rigors of the arduous Big Ten season as well as the competitive and unpredictable nature of the NCAA Tournament that follows. Barring injuries to key contributors, Michigan State will be right in the thick of the Big Ten race come late February.
Odds of winning: 4-1
Illinois -- The defending Big Ten Champions and National runners-up are back to defend their crown, and they have no intention of giving it up easily. However, the Fighting Illini will have a tough time sledding the Big Ten slopes without the services of swingman Luther Head and point guard Deron Williams, who have since departed to the "greener" pastures of the NBA.
Illinois does return two other catalysts to last year's Big Ten Championship and NCAA Finals run... slick and speedy guard Dee Brown and physical forward James Augustine. It will up to these two seniors to provide the scoring and leadership necessary to catapult the Illini back to the top of the heap. But they'll need help from their young players like Jamar Smith and Brian Randle along the way if they're going to challenge for a second straight title. So far, so good!
Odds of winning: 5-1
The Scary Second Tier
Indiana -- The Indiana Hoosiers just might be the most talented team in the Big Ten. With reigning Big Ten Freshmen of the Year D.J. White set to return to a lineup that already includes powerhouse transfer Marco Killingsworth, the front line looks as good as any in college basketball. But in order to seriously challenge for a Big Ten title this year, they'll have to be more consistent. They need to resemble the team that battled no. 1 Duke to the very end, and the one that hammered no. 15 Kentucky, and not the team that was shackled by lowly Indiana State last week. After all, Mike Davis' job may very well depend on it. If they can be more of the former, and less of the latter, look for the Hoosiers to make some serious noise.
Odds of winning: 7-1
Ohio State -- The Ohio State Buckeyes boast a balanced offensive attack with J.J. Sullinger, Terrence Dials, Je'Kel Foster and Ron Lewis all averaging in double figures in scoring. But what makes this team dangerous is that this year they actually have something to play for.
Last year, the Buckeyes meandered through a season marred with NCAA sanctions that prevented them from competing in any postseason tournament. Their lone crowning achievement was spoiling Illinois' hopes for an undefeated season with an improbable home-court victory. This season, with the loan scandal and sanctions behind them, the Buckeyes will look to build off last year's late season momentum and challenge for a Big Ten Championship. Don't be too surprised if it happens.
Odds of winning: 10-1
Michigan -- Speaking of NCAA sanctions, the University of Michigan has dealt with them (and a host of other off-the-court issues) ever since the Ed Martin scandal hit the mainstream press seven years ago. This year the Wolverines look to begin a new era, free of distractions and full of a winning attitude. If early season play is any indication, they are well on their way to achieving their goal.
With senior guard Daniel Horton leading a talented cast that includes PG Dion Harris, C Courtney Sims and the returning swingman Lester Abram, the Wolverines possess the skill and athleticism to compete with anyone. The question is, can they avoid the injuries and the off-court drama that has plagued the program for the better part of the last decade? If they can, there's no reason to believe they can't raise the Big Ten banner for the first time in twenty years.
Odds of winning: 10-1
On the Outside Looking In
Iowa -- The Hawkeyes are a solid basketball team that is well coached and doesn't beat themselves. They possess pinpoint outside shooters in guards Jeff Horner and Adam Haluska combined with the tough, physical interior presence of PF Greg Brunner and C Erek Hansen.
Iowa will prove to be a test for all the aforementioned teams and an NCAA berth is certainly an achievable goal for this team. But their lack of athleticism and a proven go-to guy will likely cost them in the Big Ten race.
Odds of winning: 15-1
Wisconsin -- It's hard to believe that the Badgers could be considered pretenders going into the Big Ten season after everything this team has accomplished under Head Coach Bo Ryan. And with three outstanding players (Alando Tucker, Brian Butch and Kammron Taylor) and an 8-1 start to build off of, it seems even more of a stretch to not include Wisconsin among the league's elite. But as fundamentally sound as the Badgers are, they lack depth, and that could prove to be very detrimental as the season unfolds.
If Bo Ryan can get this team to consistently play the type of tough, hard-nosed, man-to-man defense that has become commonplace for Wisconsin basketball, then perhaps the offense provided by Taylor, Tucker and Butch can be enough to give the Badgers another Big Ten crown. But so far, they've given up over 80 points on three separate occasions. If that continues, the Badgers will finish in the middle of the pack.
Odds of winning: 18-1
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Of course, at this point these predictions are nothing more than semi-educated prognostications. To paraphrase what a great musician once wrote... "I may be wrong, but for all I know, I may be right!" Come March, we'll find out.
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