Three games into the NHL's second season, the Detroit Red Wings find itself in an all too familiar position - staring at the prospect of another early round playoff exit.
Trailing 2-1 to the eighth seeded Edmonton Oilers heading into tonight's pivotal Game 4, the heavily favored Wings face an arguable must-win situation in order to avoid a 3-1 deficit and the likelihood of yet another postseason letdown.
But this is nothing new to Hockeytown. Despite enjoying a wealth of success in the NHL playoffs over the years (including three Stanley Cups in a six year span), they've also incurred plenty of early round disappointments.
In 1994, after winning the President's Trophy as the league's top team, the Red Wings were shocked by San Jose in the first round, 4-3.
In 2001, after jumping out to a commanding 2-0 lead on an inferior Los Angeles Kings' squad, the Red Wings promptly dropped four straight games to lose their opening round series, 4-2.
And of course, who could forget the 2003 debacle against the Anaheim Mighty Ducks? The defending Stanley Cup Champions were overwhelmed by the seventh-seeded Ducks in an embarrassing four-game sweep.
However, the failures of postseasons past should not affect this year's team. Nearly half of the current roster did not participate in any of the aforementioned series. And those that did are playoff veterans who have also been a vital part of the many Red Wings' triumphs.
So instead of dwelling on the past, it's time for Detroit to focus on the future - the immediate future. Therefore, I offer five key elements that must take place in Game 4 in order to even the series and shift the momentum back in the Red Wings' favor.
#1 -- Eliminate Turnovers
Experts can talk all they want about the trap Edmonton is employing or the excellent goaltending of Dwayne Roloson, but the reason this series is currently 2-1 in the Oilers' favor is because the Red Wings have not been strong with the puck, especially in their own zone.
In Game 2, leading 2-1 in the second period, a pair of defensive zone turnovers by Kirk Maltby and Jason Williams (just 57 seconds apart) led to the tying and go-ahead goals respectively. From there, the Wings lost the momentum and never regained it, losing 4-2.
In Game 3, three of the four Edmonton goals were the direct result of a turnover by Detroit in their own zone, including the game-winner in overtime by Jarret Stoll.
Detroit must do a better job of handling the Oilers' forecheck. They have to be stronger with the puck in the corners and along the boards and they must make crisper and more accurate passes in and out of the zone. Doing so will not only keep the puck out of their own net, but it will also help them generate speed through the neutral zone and give them better opportunities to beat the Edmonton trap.
#2 -- Stay Out of the Box
The Detroit Red Wings were among the least penalized teams in the NHL during the regular season. And through the first two games of the postseason, they continued that trend. But in Game 3, Detroit took undisciplined penalties from start to finish, tallying 14:43 of penalty time and nine power play opportunities for their opponents.
Edmonton managed only one power play goal out of their nine chances, but the plethora of short-handed minutes for Detroit hindered Mike Babcock's ability to role four lines and give some of his potent scorers (i.e. Pavel Datsyuk, Brendan Shanahan and Robert Lang) the ice time needed to get into game rhythm.
The Red Wings must stay out of the penalty box in Game 4 (and for the remainder of the series) or the result will likely be the same as it was in Game 3. Detroit is far superior to Edmonton in five-on-five situations. But they cannot exploit that superiority by taking dumb penalties and allowing the Oilers to spend a good chunk of the game on the power play.
#3 -- Better Goaltending
The play of goaltender Manny Legace hasn't been a massive chink in the Red Wings' armour thus far, but it hasn't been good either.
In Game 3, Legace let in two relatively weak goals from Jaroslav Spacek and Ryan Smyth in the first period. Smyth's goal was especially deflating as it came just minutes after the Wings had tied the game and stymied the Oilers' crowd and momentum; and it came on a wrap-around attempt in which Legace was too slow to react.
But the most deflating mistake Legace made was in double overtime when he found himself out of position as the puck was being jostled behind the net. By the time it was feathered out front, Legace had no chance to stop the back-hand rebound shot by Stoll that gave Edmonton the victory.
The bottom line is that the Red Wings' defense must play better in front of Legace. But it's also the goaltender's job to provide the last line of resistence. Dwayne Roloson has been formidable in that role for the Oilers. Now it's time for Manny Legace to match his counterpart in net for Detroit.
#4 -- Big Guns Must Step Up
At the end of the regular season, the Red Wings had eight, yes eight, 20-goal scorers on their roster - including four with 28 or more. Through three games in the playoffs, only three of those players have tallied a goal, and only one (Henrik Zetterberg-3) has scored multiple times.
Moreover, consider these numbers. Brendan Shanahan is a minus-2 with only six shots on goal in the series. Niklas Lidstrom, a three-time Norris Trophy winner and former Conn Smythe recipient is a minus-4. Pavel Datsyuk has zero points in two games. Robert Lang and Jason Williams are both minus-2. And Tomas Holmstrom is a minus-2 with only seven shots on goal and no sustained pressure in front of the Edmonton net.
If the Red Wings want to win Game 4 and ultimately advance, they need their stars to shine. Whether it's flying through the neutral zone on odd-man rushes, shooting the puck from all angles and crashing the net for rebounds, or winning the physical battles along the boards, these players must step up and make significant contributions for their team. And it must begin tonight!
#5 -- Grab the Early Lead and Hold It
Here's an eerie stat for you. Through three games, the Red Wings have led the Oilers a grand total of 18:17 out of 231:23 played. That leaves 213:06 of playoff hockey where the Wings have either trailed or been tied.
Of all the statistics compiled from this series so far, this has to be the most compelling. It's no secret that Edmonton's modified trap has foiled the Red Wings' offensive attack and has forced them to shoot from the perimeter. But by getting out to an early one, two, or three goal lead, the Oilers will not be able to sit back and clog the neutral zone. Instead, they'll be forced to carry the play to Detroit, thus creating even more chances for a counter attack on the Wings' behalf.
Therefore, it's imperative that Detroit survive the early on-slaught of the Oilers and their fans tonight and grab a first period lead. From there, it's equally imperative that they score the next goal as well. That way, they open up the ice and put the pressure on the Edmonton offense to get them back in the game.
If the Red Wings can apply these five keys to victory tonight, they'll be well on their way to advancing to the next round - Steve Yzerman or no Steve Yzerman. However, if they fail to adjust to what Edmonton is doing and continue to make the same mistakes they've made in the first three games, they might has well start reserving tee times at Oakland Hills.