We've watched countless hours of film, driven thousands of miles to see players and teams up close and personal and scoured rosters and statistics to get to this point. Rosters are now set and the topsy-turvy, often maddening preseason has come to an end. At least any further injuries sustained by your favorite team will come under the guise of trying to secure a victory that counts.
Now, it's time to file those papers back into their appropriate resting places or to the recycling bin. Instead, we're going to harness the lessons learned and gaze into the crystal ball. It's time for a short list of predictions for the season ahead. I'll post my playoff and Super Bowl picks in my blog on Thursday.
Let's start in Cincinnati.
I'll sell short if I was a Chad Ocho Cinco owner. Offer to toss in a customized jersey or a trading card with that, um, surname affixed to it. Don't worry, you won't see much more than a "Ch - line" in his autograph, so you won't have to pay a premium. He'll attempt to play through the pain and post one or two big games before heading to Dr. Andrews. Ocho Cinco is usually good for receptions, yardage and a couple multi-touchdown games each year. I think the risk is too high for where he's being selected. I'm out.
Likewise, I love Shawne Merriman and that Chargers defense, but if you forced me to be the first guy to take a defense, I'm swinging with the Vikings. Give me Jared Allen and a run-stuffing unit that creates third-and-long opportunities against inexperienced QBs in the NFC North (and the normally turnover-afflicted Jon Kitna).
Brett Favre adapts to big city life better than most expect. The new team captain makes full use of his downfield weapons and a strong offensive line. Favre throws 30 touchdown passes, but still drives you insane with 15 interceptions. He leads the Jets to the sixth and final playoff slot.
I've agonized over the ranking of Adrian Peterson all summer. LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook topped my running back rankings, but Peterson in the three hole left me uneasy. After all, we're not playing Rotisserie baseball and adding up his season-long efforts. He's going to have a handful of those monster games that represent the bulk of his statistical contributions, a few games where he's invisible (remember the end of last season?) and I suspect that he misses time due to injury. The loss of Bryant McKinnie for four games isn't helping things. But, I guess I still take him before Steven Jackson (injury issues of his own in the past and a crumbling offensive line), Joseph Addai (either all-world or invisible in 2007) and the remaining backs. I'm going to regret not just vacating that slot.
Notice that the draft stock of Ryan Grant has dipped in the latter part of the summer. Grant missed OTA's and then got hurt in camp, leaving me and many other fantasy owners a tad worried. Add the fact that opposing defenses are going to stuff the box until Aaron Rodgers proves himself, and it results in a tough, tough start for Grant. He needs Week 16 and 17 to eclipse his 2007 totals as Brandon Jackson cuts into his workload.
Speaking of Rodgers, I'm not convinced that he makes it through a full 16-game slate. Now, that's not much of a prediction, as only a handful of quarterbacks complete a full season. With that said, I expect rookie Matt Flynn to find himself under center for several games before this season ends.
That logic follows directly to the huddle in Arizona. Although Kurt Warner opens the year as the starter and will presumably match his high level of performance from 2007 given the options available to him, there's nobody thinking he'll make it through 16 games. Historical markers are just too strong.
Despite the lovefest in San Francisco with J.T. O'Sullivan, I believe that Shaun Hill is lining up under center by October 1st.
Before the season ends, as many as 10 rookie running backs will play significant roles in offenses across the NFL. One player flying under the radar is bulldozer Tim Hightower in Arizona. He's thrilled coaches with his ability to move piles and bounce off of would-be tacklers for the all-important YAC yards. Hightower ascends to a prominent "vulture" role and scores eight touchdowns as the complement to Edgerrin James.
Who put the "fun" into dysfunctional, the Lions or Bengals? Rudi Johnson morphs into a different type of cat with his arrival in Detroit, and I actually like him better in this offense. Of course, I'm also putting my faith in Jim Colletto being a man of his word and actually balancing the offensive distribution in Detroit. The Kevin Smith-Johnson duo just might be the thing to make Jon Kitna less turnover prone in the red zone.
On a related note, former Lions back Tatum Bell is being sought by Detroit fans who claim that he stole more than just Johnson's bags.
Moving on.
Philadelphia tight end L.J. Smith finds himself in a tremendous spot as the season opens. Injuries throughout the receiving corps make Smith a prime target for Donovan McNabb, provided that they can both stay healthy. Smith will finish the year as a top 10 tight end, offering a great target that can operate in space.
I've been off of the Derek Anderson bandwagon for some time. The talent available to him on this offense is impressive, but I fear that his late-season mediocrity and a tough schedule conspire to put him on the bench. Anderson is already reeling from a concussion sustained at the hands of Osi Umenyiora in his final act before heading to IR, and I believe that Brady Quinn will be under center by midseason. The schedule is brutal, and while Anderson will put up strong numbers, I'm not convinced that his efforts translate to wins. As such, the golden boy will be on display.
Jake Delhomme's elbow stays sound and he finishes the year as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, wins "Comeback Player of the Year" honors and leads the Panthers to the playoffs. Of course, this only occurs if Steve Smith remains on his best behavior upon his return to the field.
Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden (with a little help from Michael Bush) team to place the Raiders inside the top 10 running games in the leagues once again. McFadden ultimately wins out in the final yardage tally as he stays healthy, but fantasy owners agonize over their Flex spot for several weeks (including Week 1 against Denver). Zach Miller leads Oakland in receptions.
Pony is launching a campaign to turn Randy Moss into a verb, as in "you got Mossed" when he's dancing in the end zone after beating you on a corner route. In Olympic-like fashion, Moss makes a serious run to breaking his single-season touchdown record, set just last year.
Fans of the New York Giants will inundate our FOX Plaza offices with stacks of letters in a fashion similar to the climax of "Miracle on 34th Street," begging retired defensive end Michael Strahan to don his No. 92 uniform once again. He ultimately stays on the Los Angeles lot to form one of the most potent defensive fronts ever alongside Howie Long. Curt Menefee doesn't stand a chance.
We will go an entire regular season without a police run-in to discuss, and dust will gather on the chair opposite Roger Goodell. I can hope, can't I?
By Week 9, a litany of injuries and inexplicable twists and turns of this NFL season will force me to descend into madness. I will begin donning a jersey with a "Mare" nameplate, pounding the desk with a fierceness and energy unmatched in broadcast journalism on any level.
Nothing matches the enthusiasm and excitement of an NFL Sunday.
Welcome back.