Before I provide my fearless prognostications for this weekend's NFL playoff match-ups, let's take a look at how  last season's match-ups developed.  The Patriots had a bye in the first round and the Colts knocked off Kansas City.  In the 2nd round, Indy travelled to Baltimore and knocked off the once powerful Ravens.   Hard to believe the disparity between last season's Raven juggernaut and their pitiful 2007 squad!  But I digress...

  The Chargers looked like the best team in the league, going 14-2, but they were matched with the Patriots, always a stalwart playoff opponent and battle-tested and ready.    Thanks to a couple of dunderheaded Schottenheimer moves and some odd ovoid bounces New England prevailed, which brought the AFC championship back to Indy.

   We are now at a similar point in the season, with 3 of last season's participants remaining.  This week,  San Diego travels to Indy and the fresh face in the semi-finals belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who now confront the unbeaten Patriots in Foxborough.

  The Colts season has been remarkable, although a bit star-struck, remaining in the shadows of New England's unbeaten regular season.  The number of injuries the Colts have suffered should have seen them in the middle of the pack in the AFC South, demonstrably the best division in the NFL.  They lost nose-tackle Booger MacFarlane to injury before the regular season began.  Their 10 time All Pro offensive tackle, Tarik Glenn, surprised the team by retiring before the season began as well. They have played without Hall of Fame lock Marvin Harrison for the last 10 weeks and without Dwight Freeney, arguably the best pass rusher in the business, for the last  8.  They played several games with zero regular starters on the defensive front four.  The Colts reached down and drudged up the unfortunately named Craphonso Thorpe and Houston's taxi -squad reject Devin Aromashodu to bolster a receiving corps forced to play without Dallas Clark, rookie Anthony Gonzales and both tight ends,  Ben Utecht and Brian Fletcher. The O-line has been similary banged up but rookies and journeyman have ably replaced veterans forced to sit out.  All of these injuries were compounded by the fact that the Colts lost both starting safeties and an outstanding linebacker, Cato June, to free agency.

 One would think that  the Indianapolis Colts are due for a few good breaks.  But the breaks shouldn't  matter, because this team just keeps on winning, regardless of how deep they reach into their reserves.  Subtract one big play by the Patriots and Adam Vinateri's missed field goal at the close of the Chargers game, and it would have been the Colts who were playing in week 17 against the Tennessee Titans to clinch an unbeaten season.

 And now the picks:

Even if most of the breaks work against them, the Colts will be moving on to the AFC Championship Game again this season.  While last season's San Diego Chargers squad was awe-inspiring and truly a physical, imposing team, this year's group seems lackluster and unfocused, struggling through a weak schedule to the number 3 seed.   Sure they have a 7 game winning streak, but during this streak they have beaten exactly one team with a winning record, the Tennesse Titans.  As I have contended all season, the Titans are essentially playing without a quarterback.  NFL teams are supposed to be able to beat a wishbone offense.  While the Bolts beat the Colts 23-21 in week 10 in San Diego, this was a Dr. Strangelove/Dr. Seuss kind of game:  in the rain, Colts in pain, Peyton's brain somewhere else.  Serious handicappers recognize the need to throw out the anomolies when making their picks and that match-up was not an accurate reflection of either team's ability or modus operandi.

  Philip Rivers looks uneven on his best days, and the Titans demonstrated that the once-feared LT is eminently stoppable.   While the Chargers defense should be rested after facing the underwhelming Titans O, the Colts Lightning Offense will have them back on their heels and huffing and puffing early.  Reggie Wayne has been unstoppable of late and Dallas Clark remains as dangerous as any receiver in the league. There are even suggestions of a Marvin Harrison sighting.  Peyton,quick to the line of scrimmage and highly cognizant of the other coach's manuevers,  won't let the Titans make defensive substitutions and Joseph Addai should improve on the minor gashing the Titans Pillsbury Doughboy, Lendale White, was able to inflict on the Bolts.  If all else fails everyone knows the Colts will have the heat turned up in the Hoosier Dome and their patented, piped-in crowd noise will reduce Rivers to a whimpering, puddle of fumbles, miscues and sacks.  Colts 35, Bolts 14.

  Now, about that game up in Foxborough:

  The weatherman is calling for clear skies, a boon to the Brady bunch, although the temperatures hovering in the 40 degree range might make pitching and catching just slightly more difficult.  Of course, the Pats are used to the New England cold, so we can't say the weather will be a factor.   What the Pats aren't used to is trying to tackle a speeding anvil lathered in grease.   Maurice Jones-Drew, the Pocket Hercules, is as elusive as the legendary Barry Sanders but even more powerful.  His extremely low center of gravity combined with his speed and cutting ability, make Jones-Drew tough to tackle both in the open field and in the heart of the battle as well.   Mixing up the carries with Fred Jones should keep the aging Patriots defenders from adjusting to either back's pace and movement.    Now I know that Adalius Thomas is on the back end of his prime, but Junior Seau is 37, Vrabel and Brushci and Izzo all have 12 seasons in the league and have shown signs of slowing in the 2nd half of the season.   Rodney Harris is 35 and probably off the steroids he used that got him suspended for 4 games early in the season.   Since he says he took them to help him recuperate from injuries ("rather than to get a competitive edge."), he ought to be a little nicked up this late in the season.   An aging defense with relatively little speed will begin to get shown up after a couple quarters of getting pounded by the Jags relentless running attack.  Garrard is a very capable runner as well, but unlike Vince Young, Garrard has pocket presence and makes very few mistakes with the ball.   With a quarterback rating of 102.2 and only 3 interceptions, Garrard seems the ideal quarterback to help Del Rio's team keep the Brady and Moss bunch glaring on the sidelines.

 Yes, I know the evil hoodie genius will provide a defensive scheme with more wrinkles than a shar-pei,  but Garrard protected the ball better than every other quarterback in the NFL this season, and Jack Del Rio's game plan will emphasize the need for absoluting minimizing turnovers.   It doesn't seem likely that the threat of Lawrence Maroney running the ball will be able to keep the Jag defenders honest: they should be teeing off on Brady and might even muss his carefullly coifed locks a time or two.  I suspect Brady will give up 2 or 3 picks-certainly more than Garrard.  Jacksonville's biggest obstacle will be to keep from collecting chippy penalties:  the Colts have succeeded in luring the Jags into several roughing and unsportsmanlike penalties in their 2 victories over the Jags this season.  Del Rio must have his team nearly penalty free if they expect to knock off  ESPN's Team of the Century. 

  The Patriots are feeling a lot more pressure in this game than the Jaguars.  Throughout a remarkable regular season New England has been able to back up the trash talking and bragadoccio, most of it coming from their chowderhead fans.  There is a new bully in the neighborhood this week though, and they have only one game to win or lose.  The Patriots have the burden of playing for the Ages and this might just take things out of focus.  The Devil is in the details and the final score will be:

Jacksonville 27 New England 20.

Jacksonville will play Indianapolis for the 3rd time this season for the AFC Championship in Indianapolis.