by Erin Rynning, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Steve Trachsel - Baltimore Orioles - To put it mildly, Trachsel was all smoke and mirrors last year.  His 15-8 record was very much a mirage, while he contributed a fortunate 4.97 ERA with a ton of run-support (6.61 runs per game).  Moving to the American League and out of Shea Stadium, Trachsel and his flyball ways will be up against it.  In 2006, the right-hander recorded an unfavorable 79:78 SO:BB ratio in 164 innings pitched, and again with his move to the Orioles his 23 home runs surrendered will go up.  In addition, the now 36-year-old accomplished a Quality Start in just 13 of his 30 games started.  Trachsel features an array of 'traditional starter' pitches with a limited fastball, split, curve and change-up.  Intriguing, as the veteran posts a rare reverse split.  Over the last three years, left-handed bats slugged .390 against him, while right-handed bats slugged .498.  I'll be looking to 'fade' Trachsel early and often as his stay in the Orioles rotation could be short lived. 

Tomokazu Ohka - Toronto Blue Jays - Ohka was limited to just 97 innings last year, while dealing with a bum shoulder.  His overall numbers slid in return from the disabled list in 2006, while overall a 4.82 ERA with just 50 strikeouts in those 97 frames.  I watched him visually pitch in early August and he had nothing.  Keep in mind the 31-year-old worked with one of the premier pitching coaches in baseball with the Brewers in Mike Maddux.  Again, the change in scenery to the American League and to Rogers Centre will be harmful for the flyball hurler.  Ohka deals a fastball, solid-change-up, curve and slider.  Dealing with shoulder issues that sap his velocity, there's just not enough difference between his change-up and fastball to 'fool' major league hitter.  Ohka also has the make-up of a five-inning pitcher as the opposition fairs much better the third and fourth time around against him.  This all equals trouble for Ohka with the 2007 season approaching and I'll be looking to 'go against' him.           

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 by Rob Veno, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

It's always a topic of conversation at this time of year. Do teams jockeying for playoff position actually lose in an attempt to garner a playoff seeding that would give them a first round matchup they'd prefer? Well, it seems as if speculation into this conspiracy theory amongst all of us who follow the NBA can now officially begin. I'm going to start the ball rolling in the Western Conference of the Association where both the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets have had mysterious losses the past three days.

Let's begin with the playoff positions right now of both of these teams. LA currently sits in the #6 spot two and a half games ahead of Denver with 11 & 12 respectively yet to play. After Denver's heartbreaking loss to Detroit on Monday night, the Lakers 32 losses were two less than the Nuggets 34. Los Angeles then went out in their Tuesday night game and proceeded to lose at home to a decimated Memphis Grizzlies team. Los Angeles was a 12 point favorite in that one and had a 12 point lead after the first quarter. They subsequently went in the tank and scored a mere 59 points for the remainder of the game. LA shot a miserable 34.4% from the floor against the worst defensive team in the league (Memphis allows a whopping 48.5% for the season), they were out-rebounded 52-48 by a team they had an immense size advantage over and they attempted an inexplicably low 11 free throws. To cap it off, they had a pair of tries at the game's end to either tie or win and they failed (Smush Parker 3 pointer / Kobe Bryant 2 pointer) on both attempts. Do the statistics and the course this game took indicate just an off night or was this a case of a team that didn't want to win? The loss dragged the Lakers loss column to 33, which was just 1 less than Denver's 34. That put LA a half step closer to potentially avoiding the San Antonio Spurs in an opening round playoff series which ultimately would be their goal and the goal of the Denver Nuggets if you believe in the conspiracy theory at this time of year. Playing the #2 seed Phoenix rather than San Antonio would seem to be a preferred matchup for both the Lakers and Nuggets so the battle for becoming #7 could be on.       

Denver, seeing the Lakers creep even closer to them in the loss column was not to be outdone however. As 11.5-point home favorites last night, they lost outright to the Ray Allen-less Seattle Supersonics who were in a back-to-back travel situation after making a 25 point comeback done mostly in the 4th quarter the night before. Not covering an 11.5-point number if you're the Nuggets is one thing, after all the scheduling spot was a bit hectic for them too, but to lose straight up at home could indicate just how badly they want to avoid the Spurs. In the Wednesday night contest, Seattle scored just 1 point over the final 3:25 leaving Denver with the easy task of scoring just 7 over that same game ending stretch to tie or 8 to win. They obviously did neither as they went 1-8 from the floor the rest of the way with three possessions ending on offensive fouls or turnovers. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson combined to take 1 shot down the stretch placing the game in the hands of Linas Kleiza and Nene Hilario before JR Smith's game ending 3 point miss. The stars head scratchingly disappeared last night as Anthony was severely outplayed by Rashard Lewis, Marcus Camby was chewed up by Nick Collison and Iverson scored a ridiculously low 14 points. This could all certainly be construed as fishy by anyone who believes that Denver wants no part of the 6 hole and a date with the Spurs. The Nuggets have been beaten in both of the meetings with San Antonio this season. At home, they lost by 9 as 5 point underdogs and in San Antonio they were +7.5 and lost by 15. Meanwhile, they're fresh off a St. Patrick's Day home pounding of Phoenix 131-107 which likely has them much more confident against the far less physical Suns. Of course, Denver better be careful because if they fall to 8th (only 1 1/2 games ahead of the LA Clippers), they'll end up playing Dallas. 

Los Angeles on the other hand has gone 2-1 versus San Antonio this season but they haven't played them since January 28th and the Spurs are obviously a much different and dangerous team now. The Lakers would probably prefer another shot at Phoenix after being so close to defeating them in the playoffs last year. Right now, they are 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ats against the Suns for the season and have to feel more confident against them as opposed to San Antonio.

All of this does not mean that the Nuggets and the Lakers are tanking games in order to manufacture a desired playoff matchup, but it is something I look out for at this time of the season. The results from these two teams the past couple of nights and the way the way the games played out against inferior opponents is too much for me to ignore. We'll see how the rest of the week goes.

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 by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Tiger Woods is the huge favorite to pickup his 5th Green Jacket at the 2007 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. The tourney will begin on April 5th with Phil Mickelson trying to defend his crown. Here's a look at some of the projected favorites for this year's first major of the season:


Tiger Woods (7/5)-Woods has continued his domination of the sport with two wins in four PGA tour starts this season. Despite some attempts to "Tiger Proof" Augusta, Woods has rarely been shutdown at the Masters. He finished 3rd in 2006.

Phil Mickelson (9/1)-Mickelson has traded Green Jackets with Woods since breaking through to win his first Grand Slam event in 2004 at Augusta. Last year, Mickelson rode some momentum to a title after a 13-shot win in the previous week at Atlanta. He has a win already in 2007 at Pebble Beach.

Ernie Ells (14/1)-Els has been in decent form with three Top 20 finishes in four 2007 PGA tour events. He has had some good looks at the Masters with five Top 6 efforts at Augusta this decade but no wins.

Vijay Sing (18/1)-Despite turning 44 last month, Singh is still grinding out victories on the tour. Singh has already won twice in 2007 with victories at Kapalua and Bay Hill. He won a Green Jacket in 2000 and has finished between 5th and 8th at Augusta in each of the last five years.

Retief Goosen (25/1)-The two-time US Open champ has been in the hunt at Augusta with three Top 3 finishes since 2002. He hasn't been in great form in 2007 on the PGA tour with a high finish of 17th in four tourneys.

Jim Furyk (25/1)-Furyk got off to a quick start in 2007 with three Top 6 finishes in his first four events. However, he had to withdraw from the Bay Hill event due to a wrist injury. The former US Open champ hasn't finished in the Top 20 in any of the last three Masters.

Sergio Garcia (30/1)-Garcia is arguably the best player to never have won a major heading into this year's event. He has 12 career Top 10 finishes in the majors but Garcia hasn't been able to close the deal for a major title on pressure filled Sunday afternoons. Garcia has some momentum with Top 5 finishes at Bay Hill and Doral this month.

Henrik Stenson (30/1)-A live sleeper for this year's tourney. Stenson opened some eyes in America with a victory at this year's WGC match play event. He is currently 6th in the world golf rankings ahead of such notables as Singh and Goosen. Stenson missed the cut at last year's Masters and failed to record a Top 10 finish in any major in 2006.

Geoff Ogilvy (35/1)-Ogilvy cashed in on Mickelson's collapse to win the 2006 US Open. He has carried the momentum into this season with a pair of Top 3 finishes. He finished 16th at last year's Masters.

Adam Scott (35/1)-Since a 2nd place finish at Kapalua to begin 2007, Scott hasn't finished in the Top 30 in his other three PGA tour starts. After a 9th place Masters finish in 2002, Scott hasn't been able to crack the Top 20 at Augusta. Still, the 5th ranked player in the world golf rankings is on the verge of breaking through to win his first major.     

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 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 24th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Seattle Mariners-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 77 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-78
2005-69
2004-63

3-year average: 70  

Lineup-The Mariners hope to improve on last year's mediocre production in 2007. Here's a look:

C-Kenji Johjima(30): Johjima delivered some quality offensive production at the catching position in 2006 with 76 RBI's and a .291 average.

1B-Richie Sexson(32): Sexson could be poised for a huge campaign in 2007 after hitting .322 after last season's All-Star break. His first half slump (.218 average), along with Adrian Beltre's poor first half, doomed the Mariners in 2006. Sexson has been a steady power bat with six career 100+ RBI seasons.

2B-Jose Lopez(23): The youngster had 58 RBI's prior to the All-Star break last season but Lopez only drove in 21 in the second half of the year. He should be more consistent in 2007.

SS-Yuniesky Betancourt(25): A nice compliment to Lopez, Betancourt hit a solid .289 in 2006. He needs to develop some better plate discipline as Betancourt had only 17 walks in 558 at-bats last year.

3B-Adrian Beltre(28): Beltre finally showed some signs of living up to his big contract in 2006. After hitting only two
homers with 16 RBI's in the first two months of the season, Beltre pounded 23 HR's with 73 RBI's in the final four months of 2006.

LF-Raul Ibanez(34): Ibanez had a career-year in 2006 with 33 HR's and 123 RBI's.  

CF-Ichiro Suzuki(33): Suzuki produced his sixth straight year with at least 200 hits and 100 runs scored in 2006. He makes the transition to center field in 2007.

RF-Jose Guillen(30): Guillen will be playing for his 8th team in the last 9 years in 2007. The controversial player averaged 27 HR's with 89 RBI's from 2003-05. Guillen could be poised for a bounce back season in 2007 after missing 93 games last year.

DH-Jose Vidro(32): After hitting over .300 in five consecutive years from 1999-2003, Vidro has been slowed by injuries over the last three years. He has missed the basic equivalant of a full season with 163 games missed since 2004.

Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): Only Tampa Bay scored fewer runs in the AL in 2006 than Seattle. The numbers seem a bit odd for a team with four (Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and Suzuki) impact bats in the lineup. 2007 should produce some better results. Sexson and Beltre came on after slow starts in 2006. The additions of Guillen and Vidro will provide some more depth to this lineup. The main problem for Seattle in 2006 was their inability to draw walks. This problem will likely come into play in 2007 at times as the Mariners have a lineup of free swingers. However, youngsters like Lopez and Betancourt should improve in this area with more experience. Seattle has assembled a quality 1-9 everyday lineup that is poised for more production in 2007. The Mariners have enough impact hitters and promising youngsters to move up to a middle of the pack AL offense in 2007.   

Starting rotation-The Mariners have a decent if not outstanding staff of starters for 2007.

LHP-Jarrod Washburn(32): The lefty had a disappointing first season in Seattle with an E.R.A. of over 4 1/2 after posting a strong 3.20 E.R.A. in his last season with the Angels. Washburn struggled mightily on the road in 2006 with an E.R.A. of nearly six.

RHP-Felix Hernandez(21): One of baseball's most highly-touted young arms had some growing pains in 2006 after showing some brilliance in 12 starts as a rookie in 2005. Like Washburn, Hernandez was strong at home but weak on the road in 2006 with an away E.R.A. of 5.47. There is still plenty of optimism in Seattle for this 21 year-old hurler.

RHP-Jeff Weaver(30): Weaver's stock went up after a big post-season for the Cardinals last year. However, Weaver has been inconsistent in his big league career. He was very solid with the Tigers and Dodgers while flopping in stops with the Yankees and Angels. Pitching friendly Safeco Park should be a good fit for Weaver's style of pitching.  

RHP-Miguel Batista(36): Batitsta has struggled with some control issues in his last two seasons as a starting pitcher. Like Weaver, Batista should benefit from pitching half of his games in Seattle after hurling in hitting parks with Arizona and Toronto.  

LHP-Horacio Ramirez(27): Since a 12-4 rookie campaign in 2003, Ramirez has been slowed by injuries. He only made 9 starts in 2004 and was limited to 14 appearances last season. Ramirez has the potential to be above average as a back of the rotation guy in 2007.

Overall rotation outlook: The 4.48 E.R.A. of Ramirez was the lowest in 2006 for the five projected starters. While this is a cause for concern, this staff is poised for some better results in 2007. Washburn should be able to make some adjustments to fare better on the road in 2007. Hernandez will be a dominant number one sooner rather than later. The three newcomers have decent track records. While Hernandez is still developing into an elite hurler, this staff will lack a top flight number one starter in 2007. However, the depth of this rotation is above average as Weaver, Batista, and Ramirez will be able to keep the Mariners in most games at the back end of the rotation. The Mariners will have a solid if not great starting staff in 2007.  

Bullpen-The Mariners have some issues to settle this spring in their pen after dealing top setup hurler Rafael Soriano in the off-season.

Setup relief-RHP Chris Reitsma(29) should fare better in a setup role after some struggles as a closer in Atlanta. LHP George Sherrill(29) was a quality specialist for Seattle in 2006. RHP Julio Mateo(29) picked up nine wins out of the pen last season. RHP Jon Huber(25) showed some promise as a rookie in 2006 with an E.R.A. of just over one in 16 appearances.

Closer-RHP J.J. Putz(30): Putz displayed some electric stuff after moving into the closer's role early last year for Eddie Guardado. He allowed only 59 hits in 78.1 innings of work with 104 punch outs in 2006.  

Overall pitching outlook: The Mariners finished 9th in the AL in runs allowed in 2006. This staff should be able to improve by a notch or two in 2007. The rotation has solid depth while the bullpen is still a quality group although Soriano's loss will be felt. Putz is developing into a top flight closer for the Mariners. Seattle will need to pitch better away from home this season. The inconsistency from home to road left Seattle with only 34 away wins a year ago. The Mariners come through with an improved pitching squad in 2007.

Final recap and recommendation: In the first half of this decade (2000-03), the Mariners averaged 98 wins per season. Seattle suffered a quick and drastic fall in 2004 with a 99-loss season. The Mariners got old in a hurry. Suzuki is the only player left from the winning run. The climb back to respectability has been gradual. In 2005, the Mariners won 69 games. Last season, the squad won 78 games. In 2007, the Seattle rebuilding process will be ready to take the next step. A winning season. The Mariners have a solid group of veteran bats in their everyday lineup. With these players being in their late 20's or early 30's, Seattle will score more runs in 2007. The pitching is solid and it could be very good if Washburn bounces back. Hernandez could make some strides towards becoming a number one in 2007. The improvement continues for Seattle in 2007 as the Mariners post a winning season.  

OVER 77 1/2 WINS-** 2-Stars

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by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com  

Arizona Rattlers

The Arizona Rattlers finally got their first victory of the season this past weekend, blowing out Las Vegas 68-41. Arizona has now scored 65+ in three out of their four games, an impressive accomplishment considering the fact that the Rattlers have lost their top three receivers to serious injuries.  Last year's AFL Ironman of the Year, Randy Gatewood, was placed on injured reserve, out for at least a month.  Cosmo DeMatteo, who had 171 receiving yards in the season opener against Georgia is also languishing on injured reserve.  And Jeremiah Pope, who leads the team in touchdown catches was also forced to sit out this past weekend due to injury concerns.  Unfortunately for the Rattlers, the injuries don't end there.  Arizona lost defensive back Erin Damond with a pulled hamstring, receiver Atnaf Harris with a fractured hand and receiver/defensive back Justin Taplin with a possible torn knee ligament in their win over the Gladiators.   That leaves Arizona extremely banged up on both sides of the football as they prepare for their trip to Kansas City this weekend.

Grand Rapids Rampage
The AFL is an offensive league, where each possession truly is precious.  The best teams in the league score touchdowns nearly every time they have the football.  The teams in the AFL live and die by the play of their quarterbacks.  The league's best teams have stellar QB's, a deep set of wide receivers, and an offensive line that gives the quarterback ample time to find those receivers downfield.  Grand Rapids has none of those.  In four games, the Rampage have started three different quarterbacks.  Chad Salisbury went down to injury in the season opening upset win at Colorado.  Matt Sauk was cut following a pair of unimpressive performances against Las Vegas and Philadelphia.  Michael Bishop had modest success with Grand Rapids back in 2004, and was re-acquired in a trade with Kansas City less than two weeks ago.   But Bishop's first start in this go-round with the Rampage was nothing short of a disaster: three interceptions, three sacks and only two touchdown passes in a 41 point defeat.  The Rampage have now lost their last three games by a combined margin of 80 points, losing each of those games by at least three touchdowns ATS.

Los Angeles Avengers
In my preseason AFL power ratings, I had LA listed as a bottom feeder, the second worst team in the league.  After all, last year, LA had a truly dismal defense with an offense that didn't seem capable of trading points with anybody.  Things didn't look particularly promising following their season opener, an eight point home loss to San Jose.  It's surely worth noting that the Avengers opening game loss to the Sabercats was the only game in the AFL all season in which a team won the turnover battle by two or more, but still lost the game in straight up fashion.  But since that time, LA has stepped up their play, winning back-to-back games on the road thanks to a pair of stellar defensive efforts.  First, the Avengers shut down Orlando, beating the Predators in an overtime battle at 'The Jungle' 44-37, winning outright as double digit underdogs.  The Avengers then shut down New Orleans 48-36 this past weekend, forcing VooDoo quarterback Andy Kelly's first interception of the season.  It's not easy for any team to go on the road and win consecutive games while scoring less than 50 points in both contests.  LA will have to prove their defensive mettle once again this weekend as they travel to Chicago to take on the defending Arena Bowl champs.

Philadelphia Soul
The Soul were a major disappointment last year.  Quarterback Tony Graziani, a high-priced offseason free agent signing, battled injuries all season, unable to stay healthy.  The Soul were mediocre at best defensively, rarely able to generate a consistent pass rush.  But this year has been a completely different story so far.  The Soul had a bye week on the very first week of the season, and they used that time to get this team primed for a fast start, and did so dominating each of their first three opponents.  The Soul beat Nashville by 33 in their opener, then beat Grand Rapids by 29 and Colorado by 24 over the next two weeks.  While Philly has yet to beat a top-tier opponent, it looks as if celebrity owner Jon Bon Jovi has his best team since its inception.  Nearly 15,000 fans supported the Soul and the Wachovia Center this past weekend, clearly a team to watch out for as they travel to Nassau Coliseum to take on the New York Dragons this coming weekend.  The Soul, now in their fourth season in the league, have drawn a league best 387,491 fans since their inception.

Utah Blaze
Utah's offense has been second to none through the first four games of the AFL season.  The Blaze scored a league season high 83 points this past weekend in their blowout win over Grand Rapids, setting a franchise record with the 41 point margin of victory as well the 83 points scored.  The Blaze lead the league with their 69 points per game average as well as their better than 8.5 yards per offensive play.  Quarterback Joe Germaine threw for 9.5 yards per pass attempt in the record setting win over the Rampage while star receiver Siaha Burley led the team with ten receptions, four of them for touchdowns.  Germaine ranks second in the AFL in touchdown passes and third in completion percentage while Burley is fourth in the league in receptions.  Utah's offense should continue to Blaze this coming weekend as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the defensively challenged Gladiators.