by Sonny Palermo, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

I remember it very clearly, where I was in place and time, and the number I was writing on the check - and why.

I was a pup in the world of wagering on sports, entering my first season of betting on baseball. I was, a newbie, a novice . . . a knucklehead. What? No point spread? I only have to pick the winner to collect on my bet?

THAT'S EASY!

And, unfortunately for me, it was easy.

 Like the first time I played the lottery and hit four numbers on the lone Pick 6 ticket I bought (this of course came much before I learned the true odds of the lottery, and the disgusting rake for the house, NJ keeping a percentage that would shame even the greediest of loan sharks) like the first time I played craps (I dropped $100 "just to learn how it works" and cashed out with 5 times that), and like the first Sunday I bet on an NFL game (all these years later I still remember the game - a late come from behind TD gave Oakland, and me, a win.)

I have always been a believer in, and recipient of beginners luck. But the down side is it makes you a tequila superman - you think you're invincible, that it will always be that easy.

And, of course - it isn't.

And so it was that I found myself on that Monday, in my kitchen at home on Victoria Ave in Piscataway, filling out a check to give to my local bookie, for an amount just over $600. Because on the last day of the betting week I was down $200. And, having won the previous three weeks I had been playing, I wasn't about to give any money back.

So, I saw Dave Stieb was a 2 to 1 favorite over some lousy team (which one? My memory is not THAT good) on Sunday afternoon.

All I had to do was bet $400 and I'd win my $200 back, break even, call it a week and start again on Monday.

Naturally, the Beast ate me alive.

But, I crossed over on that day. It was one big step on the way to becoming an investor, and not a gambler. I make mistakes, but I don't make the same ones twice. It is the lesson I learned in the corporate world, one that served me well there, and would now be applied for success in sports wagering.

I learned to never chase, and I never did it again. I learned that patience, and education, win in the end.

Baseball is a Beast (always spelled with a capital "B" as in names due respect.) Over the years I have first-hand witnessed it devour many a gambler.

The high priced money line favorites, combined with the public's love of playing favorites and their hatred of losing their money, has sent many a gambler to the poor house.

Or to money lenders.

I have seen it make people stop betting altogether, more than any other sport. It is not a sport for gamblers.

Or novices.

Or newbies.

Or knuckleheads.

It takes time, talent, hard work, experience, and patience to win. If you have all those qualities - congrats and good luck this season. If you don't - look for help. I use a stock broker. Why? Because I do not have time, talent or experience to make it wise for me to invest in those areas. But I know someone who does, and he's good.  And so I use him. He has not always been right, but overall we've copped some decent coinage over the years.

The reason I don't do stocks is because I do sports. I approach baseball the same way I approach basketball. The same disciplines, the same experience, the same application. And as I write this column it is early, Sunday morning - Sunday, the end of another working week at wagering.

And I will not be writing a check to my bookie this week.

And I didn't last week.

Or the week before.

I'm banking my sixth profitable week in the past seven.

And I'll finish the season with a profit.

And I'm ready to tackle the Beast once again . . .

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

I just got back from my TV gig at a local studio. The segment, aired nationwide on CNBC, featured a modest debate between myself and longtime anti-gaming activist Arnie Wexler. Wexler, according to his own biography, was a compulsive gambler from his teenage years until 1968, when he saw the light and cured his own addiction. For the last 25 years, Wexler has been a staunch anti-gaming advocate, using the classic 'legalized gambling encourages addicts' argument. I wasn't buying.

This morning was even more hectic than a normal Friday morning. On Friday mornings, I do four radio shows, and I also release my Arena Football weekend package. That goes along with any additional blog entries and basketball selections and write-ups. It's a busy time. This Friday, I got a call from Sportsmemo's PR guru, Courtney Stark, saying that CNBC wanted me on air. One problem though - I, quite literally, had nothing to wear.

One of the reasons that I moved to Las Vegas in the first place was my fear of business attire. I haven't bought a suit, tie or dress shirt since my brother's wedding 15 years ago. When I occasionally needed to dress up, I'd wear that same suit that I bought in the early 90's. The last time I wore my jacket, I looked like Pee Wee Herman - the suit was getting rather tight. Clearly, it was time for some wardrobe upgrades.

So, after finishing the radio shows and getting my write-ups done, I ran out and bought a new blazer and a button down white shirt. My goal was to make the pro-gambling side of the argument look as mainstream and professional as possible. I even shaved - no scruff from this bettor on this day. Then I made my way to the studio without too much difficulty.

TV recording studios look glamorous on the small screen, but the reality is that they are just another enclosed, soundproof room - like radio stations in that regard. The host was at the CNBC studios in New York. The sports correspondent was in Atlanta, covering the Final Four. I don't know where my counterpart, Mr. Wexler, was located. And I was sitting alone in a small studio here in Vegas, with a cameraman and an earpiece as my only connections to the outside world. With all of us in different places at the same time, with only a relatively short 8-10 minute segment to share our opinions, it was difficult for me to picture what our viewers were seeing.

The tagline of the piece was about potential lawsuits from addicted gamblers who were involved in office pools across the country. I haven't heard of any employers facing a lawsuit from a compulsive gaming employee, and apparently, neither had the host, because the subject was brought up, then quickly dismissed.

Instead, the debate was rather limited. Wexler brought up compulsive gamblers and gambling addiction. I said that while that was a problem for some, the reality is that the government and businesses can't legislate behavior. People like to gamble, even for the small stakes that most office pools provide. I genuinely believe that very, very few people begin a life of compulsive gambling via office pools, and tried to get that point across as succinctly as possible.

I tried to steer the debate towards the government legislation side of the issue. I've written frequently over the past year about the attacks against sports betting and poker in Congress and from the Justice Department, and my feeling that the legislation is fundamentally flawed. As CNBC tried to pick up viewers with their catchy 'office pools = lawsuits for employers' tagline, I did my best to steer the debate towards the broader issue.

CNBC's 'sports business reporter' Darren Rovell seemed to share my opinion that Arnie Wexler's anti-gaming anecdotes were not all that valid for the 21st century of sports betting. Between the two of us, we got across the point that there are millions of honest, hard working, tax paying Americans who like to bet, but who aren't compulsively wagering on anything and everything that we can bet on. With any luck, that message will resonate with the general public and with our Congressional leaders in Washington.

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 26th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Texas Rangers-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-80
2005-79
2004-89

3-year average: 82

Lineup-The Rangers have one baseball's best offensive infields. Here's a look:

C-Gerald Laird(27): Although Laird hit .296 in 78 games last year, he doesn't figure to add much to the Texas offense as an everyday catcher. He only has 10 career HR's in 159 games.

1B-Mark Teixeira(27): Teixeira heated up with 24 HR's after the All-Star break after hitting only 9 HR's in the first half of 2006. He has averaged 38 HR's with 122 RBI's over the last three years.

2B-Ian Kinsler(24): Kinsler had a solid rookie campaign in 2006 with a .286 average and 14 HR's in 120 games.

SS-Michael Young(30): Young hit over the .300 mark for the fourth straight season in 2006. He had 52 doubles and drove in 103 runs last year.

3B-Hank Blalock(26): After averaging 29 HR's with 97 RBI's from 2003-05, Blalock slipped a bit in 2006 with 16 HR's and 89 RBI's.

LF-Brad Wilkerson(29): Wilkerson was a disappointment in his first season in Texas with a .222 average. The Rangers are hoping that he can return to his 2004 form when he pounded 32 homers for the Expos.

CF-Kenny Lofton(39): Lofton has had a resurgence in the last couple of seasons as he has hit over .300 in each campaign. He will platoon in center as Lofton will sit out against left-handed hurlers.

RF-Nelson Cruz(26): The youngster will get more of a look in 2007 after only hitting .223 in 41 games last year.

DH-Frank Catalanotto(32): Catalanatto has been a solid line drive hitter in his career with a .297 average. He will platoon with Sammy Sosa at DH in 2007.

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 4 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): The Rangers were 4th in the AL in runs scored in 2006. This lineup will likely drop back a notch or two in 2007. Texas lost Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews to free agency. While the infield, especially Teixeira and Young, is very solid, the rest of the batting order is pretty average. Home run power could be a minor issue for this team as Teixeria is the only player in this lineup who hit at least 20 HR's in 2006. Still, the Rangers have enough quality line drive and doubles hitters to remain in the top half of AL offenses in 2007.

Starting rotation-The Rangers have some question marks beyond their top two starters.

RHP-Vicente Padilla(29): Padilla gave the Rangers a quality first season with 15 wins in 2006. However, he hasn't had an E.R.A. below 4.50 since 2003.

RHP-Kevin Millwood(32): Millwood's numbers were similar to Padilla's in 2006 as the veteran won 16 games. Like Padilla, his E.R.A. (4.52 in 2006) is a little high for a No. 1-2 starter.

RHP-Robinson Tejada(25): The hard throwing youngster is still trying to harness his stuff. Tejada, due to his control problems, has been a 5-inning pitcher in his career because of high pitch counts. However, he does have some nice potential.

RHP-Brandon McCarthy(23): McCarthy displayed a lot of promise in two seasons with the White Sox. However, he isn't in a great environment for a young pitcher with half of his starts set to come in one of the more lively big league ball parks in Arlington.

RHP-Jamey Wright(32): Wright's inclusion in the rotation can't exactly be viewed as a promising sign for the 2007 Texas season. The ultimate journeyman hurler has a career record of 67-98 with an E.R.A. of over five.

Overall rotation outlook: The Rangers will have to closely monitor the back half of this rotation in 2007. Tejada and McCarthy have never been starting pitchers for an entire season. Will they be able to hold up over 30 starts in the Texas heat? The fifth spot will likely be a revolving door as Wright is a long shot to stay in this rotation over an entire campaign. While Padilla and Millwood will keep Texas in a lot of games, they aren't a dominant 1-2 combo compared to a lot of other AL staffs. The Rangers rotation will likely be in the lower half of AL staffs in 2007.

Bullpen-Eric Gagne will try to overcome some recent injuries as the new Rangers closer.

Setup relief-RHP Akinori Otsuka(35) was outstanding as the Texas closer in 2006 with 32 saves and an E.R.A. of just over two. If things go according to plans, he will be the 8th inning guy in 2007 before Gagne comes in for the 9th. LHP Ron Mahay(35) will be the key lefty specialist in 2007. Youngster LHP Scott Feldman(24) will get some more chances in 2007 after a solid campaign in 2006.

Closer-RHP Eric Gagne(31): Gagne will be activated in mid-April. It's been a long road back for Gagne as he has only pitched 15.1 innings over the last two years. For three years, he was as dominant as any closer in the history of baseball with 152 saves in 158 chances from 2002-04.

Overall pitching outlook: The Rangers were 8th in the AL in runs allowed in 2006. Texas will be hard pressed to repeat this ranking in 2007. Starting spots 3-5 are questionable. Also, these starters are unlikely to pitch deep into most games. The Otsuka-Gagne combo won't get as nearly as many opportunities as the Shields-Rodriguez duo in this division with the Angels. Otsuka and Gagne can only have a major impact if they get to pitch with a lead. The rest of the Rangers staff will have some difficulties accomplishing this in innings 1-7. Look for the Rangers to drop back a notch or two in the AL runs allowed category in 2007.

Final recap and recommendation: Since closing out the 90's with three playoff appearances in a four-year span, Texas has managed to produce only one winning season in this decade. The inability of this franchise to develop big league arms has led to its' downfall in recent years. While the A's and Angels are constantly producing top flight pitchers in their farm system from the AL West, the Rangers are not. All of the Texas projected starting pitchers and top bullpen arms for 2007 have come from outside the Rangers organization. Even with a dynamic infield of solid young players, the Rangers do not have enough in other areas to win. While Showalter has been knocked by some critics as a manager, he got a lot out of this team in the last three years. It would be surprising if new manager Ron Washington will be able to be an improvement compared to Showalter. Until the Rangers system starts producing some pitching talent, Texas will continue to have losing seasons.

UNDER 80 1/2 Wins * 1-Star

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Today is different from most days. I get numerous chances each week to make my case for a legalized, regulated sports betting environment on the radio, with my daily appearances on the Sportsmemo radio show and on a half dozen other radio stations around the country where I do a guest spot each week. But today, I've received a relatively rare special opportunity. I'm taking my case to national TV, with an appearance scheduled for CNBC this afternoon.

I'll be debating longtime anti-gaming activist Arnie Wexler on the segment, hosted by Melissa Francis, scheduled to air between 1:40 and 2:00 PM here on the West Coast; 4:40-5:00 PM on the East Coast. The story is about March Madness and office pools. More specifically, the questions that I expect to be asked revolve around office pools and gambling addiction. I'll make the case that office pools do NOT fuel gambling addiction in any way shape or form.

I have three basic points to make. First, while I'm sure that Wexler will bring up his dubious 'studies' that show gambling addition tearing apart the very fabric of American society, I plan to challenge his numbers. I plan to argue strongly against the case that small time $5 bettors around the country are being surreptitiously lured into a lifetime of gambling addiction because they played in their office bracket pool. Anecdotal evidence isn't going to fly here, and the hard numbers don't show any connection between office pools and gambling addiction.

Secondly, I'm going to make the case that office pools in particular and sports betting in general are no different from other dynamic betting marketplaces. White collar executives like to bet on the stock market. The futures markets on Wall Street are very similar to the betting markets here in Las Vegas and offshore. My goal here is to position sports betting as a legitimate market trading activity, not the compulsive habit of degenerate gamblers.

Last, but not least, I'm going to make the case that the government can't legislate human behavior. Adults like to gamble, not just in this country, but all around the world. As humans, we've been gambling since Old Testament times. The Puritans had gambling games in Colonial New England, and the less pious early immigrants down South gambled even more. The government is not against gambling per se - look at the carve outs for state lotteries with their impossible odds, and for horse racing with their powerful lobby. Turning ordinary citizens into criminals is not what the government should be doing.

Yes, there are compulsive gamblers out there, people who genuinely shouldn't be betting on anything thanks to a serious addiction problem. But there is only a tiny percentage of those compulsive gamblers who got their feet wet in the betting world via office pools. If we save one person from their own addiction while turning 1000 others into criminals or outcasts because of their inclusion in an office pool, it's not a trade that I'm willing to make.

Arnie Wexler is a crafty fellow, on the anti-gaming activist trail for nearly four decades. (You can read Wexler's story RIGHT HERE). I'll do my best to present the pro-gaming side of the argument for a national audience this afternoon.

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 25th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 67 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-61
2005-67
2004-70

3-year average: 66  

Lineup-The Devil Rays have some promising youngsters in their lineup. Here's a look:

C-Dioner Navarro(23): Navarro is still adjusting to big league pitching with a .264 average in 451 career at-bats.

1B-TY Wiggington(29): After putting up some average offensive numbers in the NL with the Mets and Pirates, Wiggington had a fine year in Tampa last season with 24 HR's and 79 RBI's despite missing 40 games. He makes the move from third to first in 2007.   

2B-Jorge Cantu(25): Cantu was slowed by injuries in 2006 after he drove in 117 runs in 2005. Still, he was productive with 62 RBI's in 107 games last year.

SS-Ben Zobrist(25): Zobrist will need to produce to hold off top prospect B.J. Upton as the starting shortstop in 2007. Neither Zobrist or Upton did any damage at the plate in limited action last year but Upton is poised to eventually get the everyday job in Tampa.

3B-Akinori Iwamura(28): Iwamura hit 106 homers in his last three seasons in the Japanese league.

LF-Carl Crawford(25): Crawford hit a career-best .305 in 2006. He has increased his HR total in each of his five big league campaigns.  

CF-Rocco Baldelli(25): Baldelli made the long journey back to the field in 2006 after missing the entire 2005 season. He gave the D-Rays a lift by hitting .302 in 92 games with 57 RBI's. Baldelli could be poised for a huge 2007 after hitting 9 HR's last September.

RF-Delmon Young(21): Another top D-Rays prospect, Young hit .317 in 30 games as a rookie in 2006.   

DH-Johnny Gomes(26): Gomes hit only .216 in 2006 after hitting .282 in 2005. He has displayed some nice power with 41 homers in his career in only 762 at-bats.

Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The D-Rays were a distant last in the AL in runs scored in 2006. Tampa could be poised for some huge offensive improvement in 2007. Baldelli, Cantu, and Wiggington missed a combined 165 games last season. This trio was very productive when healthy in 2006. Also, Iwamura and Young will be significant new contributors in this year's lineup. There is some nice pop in the order as seven of the nine bats have the potential to hit 20+ HR's in 2007. While this young group will likely run hot and cold at times this season, the Tampa offense has gained some valuable experience in recent seasons. The Devil Rays will score a lot more runs in 2007 as this crew will do some surprising damage to some opposing AL pitching staffs this season.      

Starting rotation-The D-Rays have a shaky starting staff in 2007.

LHP-Scott Kazmir(23): The D-Rays made one of the great deals in recent memory when they picked up Kazmir from the Mets in 2004. Kazmir has been the lone bright spot in the Tampa rotation in the last two years with E.R.A's of 3.77 and 3.24. A solid number one for Tampa to build around in the years to come.

RHP-James Shields(25): As a rookie in 2006, Shields was solid at home (3.94 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (5.65 E.R.A.). He should make some progress in 2007 as Shields did record 104 strikeouts in 125.2 innings of work last year.

LHP-Casey Fossum(29): Control problems have kept Fossum from progressing as a big league starter. He only averaged 5.1 innings per start in 2006. With a 5.20 career E.R.A., Fossum isn't a lock to stay in this rotation throughout the 2007 season.   

RHP-Jae Seo(29): Seo seemed like a pitcher on the rise after posting a 2.59 E.R.A. with the Mets in 2005 in 14 starts. 2006 was a major reversal for him as he struggled to a 5.33 E.R.A. with the Dodgers and D-Rays. If he can pitch closer to his 2005 form this season, this staff could make some strides.   

RHP-Tim Corcoran(28): Corcoran posted a 4.41 E.R.A. in 16 starts for Tampa last season. He will need to harness his control in 2007 after issuing 48 walks in just 90.2 innings of work in 2006.

Overall rotation outlook: While the Tampa organization has been able to assemble some quality hitting prospects, the Devil Rays continue to suffer in the arms department. Beyond Kazmir, this rotation is razor thin. While pitchers like Shields and Seo have the potential to pitch better this season, these hurlers aren't likely to be able to provide much help to Kazmir in this rotation. The starting problems eventually lead to a worn down bullpen as well. The one positive for the pitching lies in the improved offense as this will take some of the pressure off of the starting hurlers in 2007. However, the D-Rays will join the Royals at the bottom of the AL starting pitching staffs in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Devil Rays pitching woes are also felt in the pen.

Setup relief-RHP Rudy Lugo(26) allowed only 75 hits in 85 innings of work last year. RHP Shawn Camp(31) was durable for the D-Rays with 75 appearances in 2006. He will look to improve in 2007 after allowing 93 hits in 75 innings last season. As a small-market club, the D-Rays aren't able to address their setup and middle relief adequately. The rest of the bullpen roles will have to be defined as the season progresses as a number of young hurlers try to gain innings out of the pen in 2007.  

Closer-RHP Seth McClung(26): After struggling as a starter in 2006, McClung fared better later in the season in the bullpen with six saves in seven opportunities. Control is a concern for McClung after he issued 68 walks in 103 innings last season.  

Overall pitching outlook: Only Baltimore and Kansas City gave up more runs in the AL last season than Tampa. With the overall staff being virtually unchanged from a year ago, the Devil Rays will struggle in the pitching department again in 2007. Beyond Kazmir, there really isn't much upside to this staff. The biggest downfall of the Tampa organization has been its' inability to develop arms in their farm system. Until this issue is resolved, the Devil Rays will continue to reside at the bottom of the AL East standings. Tampa will challenge for the worst AL pitching staff again in 2007.  

Final recap and recommendation: The Devil Rays have been consistent losers in their nine years as a major league team. In each season, Tampa Bay has lost more than 90 games. After nine long years, the Devil Rays are finally taking some small steps towards being a club that can soon avoid the 90-loss seasons. The everyday lineup has tremendous potential. However, the small market D-Rays may not be willing to pay the tab to keep players like Crawford and Baldelli on a long term basis. Still, for 2007, this lineup should be able to deliver some meaningful progress. While the pitching is suspect, the D-Rays will have Kazmir to turn to every 5th day. The pitching will likely keep the D-Rays in last place again in 2007. However, there is enough young thunder in the everyday lineup to enable Tampa Bay to win at least 68 games this season.    

OVER 67 1/2 WINS-* 1-Star