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    Prospect

    Jury Is Still Out On Thomas In New York

    Tuesday, February 13, 2007, 10:17 AM EST [General]

    It was a disaster last season in New York. It wasn't supposed to be that way. The Knicks had high hopes with one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game. Larry Brown returned to his hometown after decades of success at numerous stops in college and pro hoops. Brown captured NCAA and NBA crowns along the way. After winning only 33 games in the 2004-05 campaign, New York was in desperate need of a turnaround. Brown was the master of the turnaround throughout his career. At many stops in the NBA, Brown had quickly turned around franchises that were down. The ultimate improvement was always evident at each job. Why would the Knicks be any different? As it turned out, the New York Knicks were a complete mess. New York had a roster of similar players who all needed the basketball to be effective. There was no chemistry for this squad. After taking the Pistons to a championship level, Brown had a group of individuals that did not buy into the team concept. For the first time in his legendary career, Brown didn't have an answer. The Knicks were even worse in 2005-06. New York dropped 59 games with only 23 victories. Brown's return home would end on a sour note. GM Isiah Thomas dumped Brown after one season. Thomas, facing mounting criticism for his personnel moves as the GM, decided to return to the bench to assume the coaching duties. He had coached the Indiana Pacers for three seasons but failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs. So, the 2006-07 season figured to be a make or break season for the tenure of Isiah Thomas in New York.

    New York figured to be an improved squad this season. After all, it is hard to do much worse than a 23-59 season in the NBA. With only two games remaining before the All-Star break, New York is only a victory shy of last season's win total. New York is in the playoff race but the Knicks are currently three games out of the final playoff bid in the East. The improvement has been modest and gradual. New York started the season with a 9-17 mark over their first 26 games. The 26th game marked a little bit of a turning point for the Knicks. New York was involved in a ugly brawl at Madison Square Garden against the Denver Nuggets in the final minute of a 123-100 blowout defeat. Since that loss, the Knicks have played winning basketball with a 13-12 record. From a wagering aspect, New York is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming into tonight's contest against the Los Angeles Lakers. The improvement has been led by Center Eddy Curry. He is now the focal point of the New York squad. Curry is responding with a career season with an average of 20 points per game. After relying on perimeter players last season, the Knicks are able to compete at a higher level with a more balanced attack. 2nd-year forward David Lee has brought some toughness to this squad on the inside as well. Lee is averaging 11 points and rebounds per contest for New York. The Knicks still have several options in the backcourt with Jamal Crawford and Stephon Marbury leading the perimeter game for New York.

    Even with the improvement, the jury is probably still out on Thomas. Owner James Dolan reportedly gave Thomas a vote of confidence last week. However, this kind of statement doesn't seem to carry much weight with 31 games left to play. New York is still well below .500 in a mediocre Eastern Conference. The improvement will still likely leave New York out of the playoffs. This may be the ultimate deciding factor for the fate of Thomas in New York. Regardless of the outcome, the Knicks will continue to be a soap opera in the Big Apple.

    posted by: David Jones, Team Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

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    Streakers

    Tuesday, February 13, 2007, 10:12 AM EST [NCAA BB]

    This week, I'm going to take an in-depth look at streaking teams in college basketball.  My NCAA hoops philosophy is all about streaking teams.  I like to ride clubs that are undervalued by the betting marketplace and fade squads that are overvalued by the betting marketplace based on their pointspread result.   We've got a handful of streakers in action tonight.  Let's start with Oklahoma State, on a 1-8 ATS run since the start of Big 12.  The Cowboys have been particularly pathetic on the highway, where they are 0-fer the season both SU and ATS.  In four Big 12 road games, the Cowboys have lost to the spread by 48 points, an average of a dozen points per contest worse than the linesmakers expectations.  Okie State takes to the highway again tonight against revenge minded Texas, still smarting off their double OT loss in Stillwater last month.   Georgetown, on the other hand, is streaking in a positive direction; 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 contests.  The Hoyas rank behind only #1 Florida in offensive execution, connecting on 52.4% of their field goal tries.  Combine that with the Hoyas #13 ranking in defensive field goal percentage allowed (39.1%) and their early season mediocrity (losses to Duke, Oregon and Old Dominion), and we can understand why the betting marketplace has struggled to keep up with Georgetown's impressive results over the last six weeks.  But there's no question that the Hoyas are no longer undervalued - they were eight point favorites over Marquette this past weekend and are laying ten to Louisville tonight.   Pepperdine has been in a downward spiral since the calendar turned to 2007.  The Waves have just two pointspread covers in their last eleven games, coming in their only two victories in West Coast Conference play.  Pepperdine went 9-1 ATS as an underdog in their first ten tries, the lone loss coming in overtime.  But, as is typical of losing teams as the season progresses, close loss after close loss leaves a team frustrated.  The effort for the Waves simply hasn't been there in recent defeats - their last four defeats have come by a margin of 68 points.  Tonight, Pepperdine is catching 9.5 against a San Diego team that has lost their last four at home in outright fashion.   Santa Clara has won and covered seven of their last eight, the only loss coming as big home favorites against a recently surging Loyola Marymount squad.  After getting embarrassed by some very good teams in the midst of a difficult non-conference slate - Kentucky, Missouri St, Nevada, Cal and Air Force - the Broncos have regained their confidence against WCC competition.  We'll see if that confidence and improved play carries over in a revenge matchup with Gonzaga this evening. posted by: Teddy Covers, Senior Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com
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    Duquesne's Hoop Dreams Continue

    Monday, February 12, 2007, 12:00 PM EST [Duquesne]

    By Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

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    The Home Field Non-Advantage

    Monday, February 12, 2007, 11:53 AM EST [NBA]

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    Down Duke

    Monday, February 12, 2007, 11:48 AM EST [Basketball]

    By Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

    It's been over a decade since Duke has experienced this kind of slump. Sunday's loss to Maryland was the fourth straight defeat for the Blue Devils. Duke is now 5-6 in ACC play. The Blue Devils will actually need some more wins down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament. To say that this season has been unusual for Duke would be a vast understatement.

    Head coach Mike Krzyewski has arguably put together the greatest dynasty in the history of college basketball. While Duke cannot approach the 10 national titles for UCLA under John Wooden, the Blue Devils can still make an argument about having the best run in the history of the game. Duke has dominated in an era that has featured many worthy college basketball programs. UCLA didn't have many elite challengers to deal with in the 60's and 70's. The numbers entering this season for Krzyewski in Durham were staggering:

    Three national championships (1991, 1992, 2001)
    12 National Coach of the Year honors (eight seasons)
    Seven National Players of the Year (nine honors)
    Six National Defensive Players of the Year (nine honors)
    22 NCAA Tournament bids
    21 All-America selections (33 honors)
    10 Final Four appearances (third all-time)
    11 ACC regular season championships
    10 ACC Tournament championships
    680 total victories (267 ACC wins)
    373 weeks ranked among the nation's top 25 teams
    324 weeks ranked among the nation's top 10 teams
    92 weeks ranked number one in the country
    68 NCAA Tournament victories (first all-time)
    38 NBA Draft selections, including 20 in the first round
    14 NBA Lottery picks

    Duke has usually been able to reload instead of rebuild. The Blue Devils were certainly going to miss J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams this season. Williams averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds last season. Redick finished up a huge career at Duke with an average of 27 points per game. Both players went in the top 11 of the NBA draft. This time around, Duke hasn't been able to reload. The Blue Devils lost 46 points per game from these two star players. The offense has floundered this season without its' star duo. Duke is averaging a modest 69 points per game this year. The squad lacks an impact scorer. Junior guard DeMarcus Nelson leads the team in scoring with an average of 14 points per game. The Blue Devils can't get the easy baskets that were commonplace with Redick and Williams.

    Still, it appeared to be business as usual for Duke as the Blue Devils started the season with a 13-1 record. During this run, Duke only scored more than 75 points in just two contests. The defense was outstanding during this stretch. 12 of 14 opponents were held to under 60 points. However, as conference play began, Duke was forced to play higher tempo games. In 11 ACC games, 9 opponents have reached the 60-point mark. Without a potent offense, the Blue Devils have struggled at times to trade scores in these conference affairs. Is Duke potentially on the NCAA bubble?

    Probably not. It will still take a big collapse to leave Duke out of the dance. The Blue Devils have impressive non-conference wins over Air Force, Indiana, Georgetown, and Gonzaga. However, Duke will still need two or three more wins to close out the regular season to completely stop the bubble conversation. Duke will only have two home games in their final six contests. The Blue Devils will host a couple of other ACC bubble teams in Georgia Tech and Maryland. Duke lost to both of these clubs on the road by double figures. With three home conference losses already under their belt, these games will not be automatic W's for Duke. The road slate includes trips to Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina in conference play. Duke will likely be an underdog in each of these matchups. The Blue Devils will also face a difficult situational game with a non-conference outing at Madison Square Garden against St. John's. The Red Storm always get up for this matchup. It is more difficult for Duke to bring a focused effort in this kind of non-conference contest. So, coach K will be facing one of his biggest challenges over the final three weeks of the regular season. While it is unlikely, the NCAA Tournament could have an odd feel if Duke collapses to miss the dance.

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