by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 29th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


San Diego Padres-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-88
2005-82
2004-87

3-year average: 86  

Lineup-A lack of power is a concern for the Padres in 2007. Here's a look:

C-Josh Bard(29): Bard was a surprise offensive force in 93 games for San Diego last season with a .338 average and some occasional pop with 9 HR's.

1B-Adrian Gonzalez(24): Gonzalez is a young bat to build around as he pounded 24 HR's in 2006.

2B-Marcus Giles(28): Giles average has slipped in each of the last three seasons since he hit .316 in 2003. While he will get to play with his brother Brian in San Diego, Giles could be hard pressed to rebound offensively with half of his games coming in arguably the most difficult hitting park in the majors.  

SS-Khalil Greene(27): Greene has hit 15 HR's in each of the last three seasons. However, he has been slowed by some nagging injuries as Greene has missed 105 games since 2004.

3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff(25): The highly touted prospect has only 16 games of major league experience as he gets a chance to be the Padres 3B in 2007.

LF-Termel Sledge(30): Sledge has played in only 58 games over the last two seasons after hitting 15 homers as a rookie in Montreal in 2004.  

CF-Mike Cameron(34): Cameron has some nice speed and pop as a CF. In 2006, he hit more than 20 HR's with more than 20 stolen bases for the 5th time in his career.   

RF-Brian Giles(36): Even though his power numbers have slipped since joining the Padres, Giles is still highly productive as a hitter. He has drawn over 100 walks in a season in five of the last seven years.  

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The Padres were 13th in the NL in runs scored in 2006. These numbers are a little skewed by the difficulty of scoring runs at Petco Park. San Diego had the NL's 4th best road offense in 2006. The Padres do lack a dominant power bat in the order. They also don't have a lot of high average bats. However, there are some quality line-drive hitters as evidenced by the road performance in 2006. San Diego will likely be near the bottom in the NL runs scored again in 2007 but the offense will be able to do enough to win in support of an outstanding pitching staff.   

Starting rotation-The Padres have a good mix of strong young arms and proven vets in their rotation for 2007.

RHP-Jake Peavy(25): After posting an E.R.A. of under three in 2004-05, Peavy wasn't quite as effective in 2006 with a 4.09 E.R.A. Still, he is a dominant number one for the Padres to build around in the years to come.

RHP-Chris Young(27): Young had an outstanding first season in San Diego with a 3.46 E.R.A. in 2006. A nice number two to compliment Peavy.

RHP-Greg Maddux(41): After posting an E.R.A. of over four in two and a half seasons with the Cubs, Maddux came to life in 12 starts for the Dodgers by posting a 3.36 E.R.A. He should be able to thrive in his starts at Petco Park this season.  

RHP-Clay Hensley(27): A quality young arm at the back of the rotation, Hensley has a fine career E.R.A. of 3.30 in two big league campaigns.   

LHP-David Wells(43): Wells helped San Diego down the stretch last year with a 3.49 in five starts after coming over from Boston. He was effective in his prior stint with the Padres in 2004 with a 3.73 E.R.A.   


Overall rotation outlook: The Padres are well suited for another playoff run with this deep rotation. Peavy and Young form an outstanding duo at the top of this staff. Even past the age of 40, Maddux and Wells are still able to work effectively. San Diego will have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.      

Bullpen-The Padres have a good bullpen to support the starting arms.

Setup relief-RHP Scott Linebrink(30) has been one of the better NL setup relievers in recent seasons. RHP Cla Meredith(23) was untouchable in 2006. He posted a 1.07 E.R.A. and allowed only 30 hits in 50.2 innings of work. RHP Scott Cassidy(31) is another quality bullpen arm as he posted a 2.53 E.R.A. last season.    

Closer-RHP Trevor Hoffman(39): Hoffman shows no signs of slowing down after posting his third straight season of more than 40 saves in 2006. He only needs 18 saves this year to reach the 500 mark in his career.

Overall pitching outlook: The Padres easily allowed the fewest runs in the NL in 2006. The 2007 season should result in some similar results. San Diego has plenty of quality arms in the starting staff as well in the bullpen. The overall staff has an ideal mix of strong young arms and proven veterans who still have something left in the tank. The Padres are poised to have the NL's best pitching unit again in 2007.        

Final recap and recommendation: The Padres have learned how to win with consecutive playoff appearances heading into the 2007 campaign. While a third straight playoff trip might be out of reach, San Diego will deliver another winning season this year. Even with an offense that won't overpower too many foes in 2007, the Padres won't have to score too much behind the league's best pitching staff. The arms will carry San Diego to more wins than losses this season as the Padres win at least 84 contests in 2007.            

OVER 83 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

There are certain days that appeal to most sports fans, the type of days where our television set truly becomes the single most important possession that we own. The opening weekend of March Madness stands out as this type of 'must watch' event, with college basketball on tap non-stop from morning till night. The Super Bowl is another 'event' type of day, where the Big Game is most assuredly a television spectacle.

While the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and the weekend of the Super Bowl are the two biggest sports weekends of the year here in Las Vegas, there are no shortage of other qualified candidates to serve as 'must watch' days. The opening Sunday of the NFL certainly deserves some consideration, as does the Sunday with the AFC and NFC championship games in the playoffs. The opening Saturday of the college football season also stands out, as does New Year's Day for all the bowl games.

But the first Monday in April is truly one of my favorite days of the year to sit in front of the TV from morning till night, taking everything in. All day long we've got baseball, with opening day on tap for 26 of the 30 major league teams. With nine day games, four of them on national TV, even casual fans can get a good feel for the excitement level that is a prerequisite for opening day. Hope springs eternal at this time of the year, even for fans of perennial bottom feeders like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Kansas City Royals, the four biggest underdogs on today's card.

Watching a baseball game is nothing like watching football or basketball on television. The pace is slower - much slower. Every pitch is it's own little battle; every inning has a story to tell. You don't have the jaw dropping grace of the basketball world, or the brute physicality that makes football what it is. That's why the great baseball announcers have the uncanny ability to tell one folksy story after the next - baseball is a game where the story must be enough to attract viewers, without the consistent fast paced excitement of the other leagues.

As I write this blog entry, we've already seen the season's opening contest as the Mets knocked off the Cardinals last night. The action begins anew in less than an hour - expect nothing but baseball on the three television sets in my home office between now and tonight.... until the NCAA Championship game tips off this evening, that is.

Baseball is the only sport that has their opening day on the same day as another sport's title game. Heck, even the NBA doesn't have a single game scheduled for this evening, as usual on national championship Monday. College hoops fans are probably in for a treat this evening, because this game, unlike many other heavily hyped sporting events, is a classic battle more often than not.

My college basketball memories start with three of the best games that I watched as a teenager. First came North Carolina beating Georgetown 63-62 on Michael Jordan's game winning shot in the 1982 championship game. Then came Jim Valvano's moment of glory as NC State upset the Phi Slama Jama Houston squad 54-52 the following year. And Villanova's upset win over Georgetown 66-64 in the 1985 championship game merits serious consideration as the best college basketball game ever.

But it doesn't end there. Louisville beat Duke by three points in 1986. Indiana beat Syracuse by one in 1987. Kansas beat Oklahoma by four in 1988. Michigan beat Seton Hall by a single point in overtime in 1989. In more recent years, we've seen great games like the Arizona-Kentucky overtime battle in 1997; the UConn upset over Duke in 1999, Syracuse hanging on to beat Kansas by three in 2003 and the North Carolina-Illinois battle two years ago. In all, since that classic Tar Heels championship run in '82, 18 of the 25 NCAA championship games have come down to the wire, decided by single digit margins. Unlike the Super Bowl, this game generally lives up to the hype.

So, that leaves us with one of the great sporting days of the year, the first Monday in April. Wall to wall opening day baseball all morning and afternoon, with the NCAA championship game as a worthy nightcap. Don't expect to see me leave my La-Z-Boy at any point today, other than for the occasional pit stop.

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

 by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

If you've read my Bio at Sports Memo, you know I listed my favorite sports announcer as Kevin Harlan. Tonight's college basketball national title game between Florida and Ohio State will be broadcast on WestwoodOne radio nationwide with Kevin Harlan providing the play-by-play coverage. In my opinion, Harlan's coverage of the game is the best in the business, as he's colorful, entertaining, but most importantly descriptive. He's known for his witty dialogue and vast assortment of creative banter. Yet, he provides a visualization that few others approach when announcing a game. If you're at home and watching the game on TV, I recommend turning down the television volume and voices of Jim Nance and Billy Packer and listening to Harlan's play-by-play radio coverage. The color commentators are Bill Raftery and John Thompson, the former Georgetown coach.

I caught portions of the semi-final games Saturday night, and was able to listen to Harlan describe the action. I like that he gives a regular score update and even shot-clock updates, as there is nothing more frustrating to a bettor than to tune into a game and wait many minutes to hear the score. While I didn't hear any of his widely known 'Right between the Eyes', or 'Oh baby, what a play' screaming of basketball brilliance, I did hear precise, colorful description of the game. Harlan doesn't just tell you that the player 'dribbles past' the defender, it's a 'crossover' dribble. No 'shot missed' from the outside, it's 'an 18-foot jumper off the back rim'. Everything is visually descriptive, and I tried to take some notes while both driving and ultimately at my home office desk while listening and watching coverage of the Ohio State/Georgetown game and UCLA versus Florida. Here are some lines. Ohio State is moving from right-to-left, bounce pass by Conley, picked up between the circles, Oden spins inside for a two-handed dunk. Double-team with back to the basket, lob pass inside to Horford who leans on Mbah a Moute. Collison left-handed dribble and bounce pass to Afflalo on the right wing. Man-to-man defense by the Gators with Brewer on him. Afflalo goes galloping down the lane. UCLA is clad in blue with gold trim. Ben Howland is half-way on the floor begging the official...! Again, everything is visual, as listening on the radio I even know what color the team is wearing.

Here is a bio and description of Kevin Harlan, who was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and is the son of Green Bay Packers President and CEO Bob Harlan. He has been broadcasting NBA games on television through TNT for ten years. I always enjoyed his coverage with Doug Collins as color man. Previously, Harlan worked with Danny Ainge and John Thompson on TNT. His expertise and interest has grown over the years, as he has provided coverage for NFL and college basketball games on FOX, CBS and ESPN. My interest in Kevin Harlan calling games goes back to my days living in Minneapolis, as Harlan was the original play-by-play man for the Minnesota Timberwolves for nine seasons. While the T'Wolves were the laughingstock of the NBA in their early years, Harlan was providing tremendous coverage that was keeping fan interest, despite the teams horrific performance. Obviously, the broadcast stations took notice, as Harlan has become one of the top professionals in radio and television coverage for the NFL, NBA and college basketball.

Tune in tonight on ESPN 920 in Las Vegas and WestwoodOne radio nationwide, as Harlan provides coverage of tonight's national title game between Ohio State and Florida. Plenty of great action and coverage tonight, and maybe even an 'Oh baby, what a play'!

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 28th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.

Washington Nationals-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 68 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-67
2005-83
2004-83

3-year average: 78 

Lineup-Without Alphonso Soriano this season, the Nationals offense will likely have some struggles. Here's a look:

C-Brian Schneider(30): Schneider has never had more than 55 RBI's in his four seasons as the Nationals regular catcher.

1B-Nick Johnson(28): Johnson is still recovering from a broken leg and will likely not be able to play until at least June. A huge blow for Washington as Johnson had 23 HR's, 110 walks, and 100 runs scored in 2006. Veteran Dmitri Young will man 1st until Johnson returns.   

2B-Felipe Lopez(26): Lopez has become an offesnive factor with 195 runs scored over the last two seasons. However, after hitting 23 HR's with 85 RBI's in 2005, Lopez had a huge drop in power production in 2006 with just 11 HR's and 52 RBI's.

SS-Cristian Guzman(29): Guzman will try to return to the form he showed early in his career in Minnesota after missing the entire 2006 season and hitting only .219 in his first year with the Nationals in 2005.

3B-Ryan Zimmerman(22): A player that Washington can build around in the years to come. Zimmerman had 110 RBI's as a rookie in 2006.

LF-Ryan Church(28): Church will likely be a platoon player in 2007. He has shown a little pop in three seasons with 20 HR's in 527 at-bats. 

CF-Nook Logan(27): The speedy Logan will hope to bring a spark to the Nationals lineup in 2007. He had 23 steals for the Tigers in 2005.

RF-Austin Kearns(26): After putting up some big numbers in the first half of last year with the Reds, Kearns had a drop in production with the Nationals. Despite high expectations, Kearns never fulfilled his promise in Cincinnati but he is still just 26.  

Overall lineup outlook(2 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batter, and 3 switch-hitters): The Nationals were 10th in the NL in runs scored in 2006. Without Soriano and with Johnson on the shelf for awhile, Washington will have some trouble putting together any consistent offense in 2007. Zimmerman and Kearns are the only locks to hit at least 15+ HR's in this lineup. The non-power hitters don't get on base enough to have any real impact on this offense. Washington falls to the very bottom of NL offenses in 2007.        

Starting rotation-The weak offense likely won't get much support from a suspect starting pitching staff.

RHP-John Patterson(29): After a big year in 2005(3.13 E.R.A.), Patterson was limited to eight starts in 2006 due to injury.

RHP-Shwan Hill(25): Hill posted an E.R.A. of 4.66 in six starts for the Nationals last season. 

LHP-Matt Chico(23): His first pitch of 2007 will be the first of his big league career as Chico is thrown into the fire in the Nationals rotation.  

RHP-Jason Bergmann(25): Another untested Nats starter, Bergmann has only made seven starts in two big league seasons with a career E.R.A. of near six.  

RHP-Jerome Williams(25): Williams, a former top prospect for the Giants, made only two major league starts in 2006. He does have a respectable 4.03 career E.R.A. but his stock has dropped considerably since his early promise with the Giants. 

Overall rotation outlook: The projected starters combined to make only 22 starts last season. The pitching for outlook is pretty bleak. Patterson is the only pitcher likely to produce for Washington and even he is a slight question mark after last season's injury. The struggles of the starters will eventaully wear down th bullpen as the season progresses. Look for Washington to have the NL's worst starting staff in 2007.      

Bullpen-The pen will likely get plenty of innings in 2007.

Setup relief-RHP Jon Rauch(28) was a workhorse in 2006 with a 3.35 E.R.A. in 85 appearances. RHP Ryan Wagner(24) has great potential as a late-inning reliever after showing some promise as a former top prospect with the Reds. Veteran LHP Ray King(33) will be a key specialist in 2007. 

Closer-RHP Chad Cordero(25) has developed into one of the NL's best closers with 76 saves over the last two seasons.  

Overall pitching outlook: The Nationals gave up the most runs of any NL team in 2006. The 2007 season should result in a repeat performance. While a full season from Patterson will help, there are too many unproven arms in the rest of the rotation. The bullpen is decent but Cordero will be unlikley to get too many save opportunities this season. Look for Washington to have another long season of pitching woes in 2007.    

Final recap and recommendation: There is little left from the Nationals teams that won 83 games in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While the Expos/Nationals organization has traditionally produced a vast amount of talent, the current roster is lacking in prospects. zimmerman is the only impact player in the lineup that the organization has produced. Until the farm system has a resurgence, the Nats are facing some difficult times. The 2007 Nationals face little chance of improving from last year's 67-win campaign. It is more likely than not that this Washington team will lose 100+ games in 2007 as this rebuilding process will face some rough times this season.          

UNDER 68 1/2 WINS-** 2-Stars

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 27th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.

Toronto Blue Jays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 86 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-87
2005-80
2004-67

3-year average: 78 

Lineup-Frank Thomas is the big addition to this year's lineup. Here's a look:

C-Greg Zaun(35): The veteran doesn't have a high average or much power. However, he has been productive for Toronto with an on-base average of over .360 in his three seasons for the Blue Jays.

1B-Lyle Overbay(30): Overbay had a career-year in his first season in Toronto last year with personal highs in HR's, RBI's, and batting average.   

2B-Aaron Hill(25): Hill hit a solid .291 in 2006 for the Blue Jays.

SS-Royce Clayton(37): Clayton will be playing for the 10th different team in his career as he joins Toronto in 2007. He will be counted on for defense more than offense with the Blue Jays.

3B-Troy Glaus(30): Glaus pounded 38 HR's in his first season in Toronto in 2006.

LF-Reed Johnson(30): Johnson proved to be a valuable line-drive bat for the Blue Jays last year with a .319 average and 34 doubles. 

CF-Vernon Wells(28): Wells has outstanding power for a center-fielder as he has averaged 28 HR's over the last five seasons.

RF-Alex Rios(25): Another great young talent for Toronto, Rios drove in 82 runs in 2006 despite missing 34 games.  

DH-Frank Thomas(38): After playing in a total of just 108 games in the previous two years, Thomas had a comeback season in Oakland in 2006 with 39 HR's and 114 RBI's.

Overall lineup outlook(7 right-handed batters, 1 left-handed batter, and 1 switch-hitter): The Blue Jays were 7th in the AL in runs scored and 4th in homers in 2006. This offense should be able to improve a notch or two in 2007. Toronto has five hitters that are likely to drive in 90+ runs in 2007. The Blue Jays also display excellent patience at the plate with several batters in the lineup that draw a good number of walks. The combination of the walks and the HR power makes this Toronto offense capable of doing quick damage in a game. Look for the Blue Jays to be a top 5 AL offense in 2007.     

Starting rotation-Toronto may not have enough starting pitching to make a playoff run in 2007.

RHP-Roy Halladay(29): After some injuries limited him to only 40 starts in 2004-05, Halladay rebounded to make 32 starts last season. He has become the AL's top right-handed starter in the last five years with a dazzling 77-31 record.

RHP-A.J. Burnett(30): Despite some outstanding stuff, Burnett is only one game above .500 in his career. Constant injuries have limited Burnett as he has only had one season with at least 30 starts. With a lot of questions at the back of this rotation, the Blue Jays will need a full season from him to contend in 2007. 

LHP-Gustavo Chacin(26): After a strong 2005 (3.72 E.R.A.), Chacin was slowed by some injuries in 2006. He struggled to an E.R.A. of over five in 17 starts and allowed a whopping 19 HR's in just 87.1 innings of work.  

RHP-Tomo Ohka(31): Like Burnett, Ohka has had trouble staying healthy for an entire season at times. He has been limited to fewer than 20 starts in two of the last three years.  

RHP-Josh Towers(30): Towers has been inconsistent in his four seasons with the Blue Jays. He won a spot in this rotation in the spring despite posting an E.R.A. of 8.42 last season in 15 appearances.

Overall rotation outlook: The Blue Jays have a fragile group of starting arms as all five projected starters have had some some injury problems in recent years. In addition, the loss of Ted Lilly will clearly be felt. If healthy, Burnett and Chacin should be quality No. 2's and 3's behind Halladay. However, the four and five spots could be major problem areas for this club. Veterans Victor Zambrano and John Thompson do give the Blue Jays some options if Ohka and Towers falter. Even with Halladay, this Blue Jays starting staff will likely be in the middle of the pack of AL rotations in 2007.     

Bullpen-The Blue Jays have some depth issues in this year's pen.

Setup relief-LHP Scott Downs(31) is the top lefty out of the Toronto pen. LHP Brian Tallet(29) is another quality lefty arm for the Jays. RHP Brandon League(24) will get more work in 2007 after posting a 2.53 E.R.A. in 2006. 

Closer-LHP B.J. Ryan(31) was nasty as Toronto's closer in 2006 as he allowed only 42 hits in 72.1 innings of pitching while posting a 1.37 E.R.A. 

Overall pitching outlook: The Blue Jays were 5th in the AL in runs allowed in 2006. The loss of Lilly and top setup reliever Justin Speier will hurt Toronto in 2007. However, Toronto should be able to get more from Burnett and Chacin in 2007 after duo combined to make only 38 starts last season. The Blue Jays could be a very serious playoff contender if Burnett and Chacin can make 60+ starts to support Halladay. However, the questionable 4th and 5th starters, along with a bullpen that won't be as good without Speier, will likely drop the overall Toronto pitching back to a middle of the road AL pitching unit.   

Final recap and recommendation: In seven of the last nine seasons, Toronto has won between 80 to 88 games. This has left Toronto just a little short of being a playoff team. While the Blue Jays have asembled a team that has some great potential, there are still enough question marks to leave this club out of the post-season again in 2007. However, Toronto will still be a difficult squad to face this season. The thunder in the everyday lineup will do some damage while Halladay and Ryan continue to be one of the better starter/closer duos in baseball. The Blue Jays have enough to at least match last season's win total of 87 in 2007.      

OVER 86 1/2 WINS-* 1-Star