by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com
With much of my focus on college basketball the opening months of the new year, I spend limited time handicapping and analyzing PGA golf. We receive correspondence in the office with requests for PGA golf, and people wondering when I begin my golf selections. There is just too much time and coverage devoted to basketball, and hoops clients and bettors expect that commitment. However, that did not stop me from making a golf match-up wager this past week on Robert Allenby over Stuart Appleby, as I laid a moderate price and cashed an easy winner when Allenby tied for 3rd place at the Nissan Open.
Now this week, I took some time to check out the upcoming match-play event played on the new Gallery Golf Club South Course at Dove Mountain, located 15 miles North of Tucson. You can take a virtual tour of the golf course by clicking the highlighted link. The PGA field of 64 is set, and the bracket was released last night. The four No. 1 seeds are Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk and Adam Scott, followed by the No. 2 seeds Ernie Els, Luke Donald, Retief Goosen and Vijay Singh. The tournament begins Wednesday, and it is a unique event and the only PGA tour event that has a match-play format. The $8 million dollar purse offers a 1st place prize of $1.3 million, and while Tiger Woods is a two-time champion, the list of past winners includes lower seeds and longshots that have found their way to both the Final Four and the winners circle. Last years winner was Geoff Ogilvy, as he defeated Davis Love in a 36-hole final which propelled him to his best season on tour highlighted by the WGC Match-Play title and a U.S. Open Championship win.
You will often see many early round 'upsets', as match play can really reward a player with a hot putter and solid short game. When betting this event, don't be afraid to take a 'shot' on some moderate to long shots, as past winners Ogilvy, Jeff Maggert, Steve Stricker and Kevin Sutherland proved to pay big for their backers.
Here is a little overview of the South course, with some thoughts on who to consider when handicapping the field. First, the course is 7468 yards and a par 72. It will play a little shorter, as the fairways are firm and the opening seven holes play downhill. Long hitters will not have a sizeable advantage, so search out the players with an excellent short game and putter. The rye grass rough is relatively short with a cool winter in Tucson. The bentgrass greens are huge, from 7000-10,000 sq. feet and many are raised 'turtleback' with falloffs. There is soft, subtle undulations and players with an excellent wedge game and putter will benefit the most. As you review the course and watch the event, the toughest and most demanding holes will likely be No. 3, No. 5 and No. 13...long par 3 (225 yards), par 5 (635 yards) and par 4 (479 yards) that plays dead into the wind.
Among the favorites of interest outside of the top four would be Ernie Els, who is not only playing well and returning to top from following last season's recovery from injury, but he has an excellent short game and putter, and seems to have a favorable draw. I like how well Robert Allenby has played this early season, and he has had very good success in this event the past few years. However, his short game is not necessarily his strong suit, and drawing Tiger Woods in the second round should they both advance is hardly rewarding. However, Allenby or Tim Clark is a tough 2nd round opponent for Woods, who takes on American J.J. Henry in opening round action. Henry was the 65th-ranked player in the world, but found out Sunday he would play Tiger after South Africa's Charl Schwartzel withdrew. Same tough early opponent for Phil Mickelson, who would face either Michael Campbell or Justin Rose in round two.
The players tee-off Wednesday, and the opening match is Trevor Immelman versus Thomas Bjorn, both highly regarded players and solid match-play pros. So enjoy the golf action this week and I'll likely tee-off myself with match-up selections beginning with the next World Golf Championship (WGC) event the end of March, as the 'Blue Monster' at the Doral Golf Resort and Spa looks like a good place to tee-it-up for 2007 and get our game ready for the Masters the first week in April.
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