by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 1st of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Arizona Diamondbacks-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 77 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-76
2005-77
2004-51

3-year average: 68  

Lineup-With the departure of franchise player Luis Gonzalez, the D-Backs now have one of the youngest everyday lineups in the National League. Here's a look:

C-Chris Snyder(26): Not much experience with only 600 at-bats in his career. He hit a decent .277 last year in limited action. Snyder won't have much of an impact in this lineup.

1B-Connor Jackson(24): Produced solid, if not great, numbers for a rookie with 15 HR's and 79 RBI's. Arizona is hoping that Jackson will become a 20-HR guy in the near future.

2B-Orlando Hudson(29): Hudson had a difficult transition to the NL with a .235 average with only a homer and 11 RBI's in the first two months of the year. He came on in the final four months to hit .311 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI's. Above average offense at 2B.

SS-Stephen Drew(24): Impressive debut for the top pick with a .316 average in over 200 at-bats. If he can produce over a full season, the D-Backs will have one of the top hitting middle infields in the league.

3B-Chad Tracy(26): Tracy has arrived after consecutive 20-HR seasons. He should continue to be a factor in the middle of this lineup for awhile.

LF-Chris Young(23): This spot is a question mark in the lineup. The rookie Young will likely share some at-bats with veteran switch-hitter Jeff DaVanon.

CF-Eric Byrnes(31): The only player older than 30 in the lineup. After bouncing around with three teams in 2005, Byrnes had a career year with 26 homers and 79 RBI's in 2006. He doesn't hit for a high average but Byrnes is a grinder with a hard-nosed attitude that teammates and fans feed off of.

RF-Carlos Quentin(24): The D-Backs need a power bat in their lineup and Quentin could be the guy. He hit 9 home runs in only 57 games as a rookie last season. Arizona is looking for more than 20 homers in a full season in 2007.

Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters, and 1 switch hitter): Only three NL teams hit fewer home runs than Arizona last season. However, the D-Backs ranked 7th in the league in runs scored. Still, that figure is a little misleading with Bank One Ballpark being one of the liveliest parks in the NL. Arizona was one of the few teams that did not have a player reach the 30-HR mark in 2006. Arizona will have some growing pains with this young lineup and the lack of power will hurt them at times. Overall, this lineup will remain in the middle of the NL pack in 2007.

Starting rotation-Two Cy Young award winners headline this veteran group.

RHP-Brandon Webb(27)-With a career E.R.A. of 3.28, Webb is a dominant number one. He could be poised for a 20-win campaign after winning the Cy Young in 2006

LHP-Randy Johnson(43)-A question mark after a 5.01 E.R.A. in 2006. Still, despite a ton of criticism, Johnson won 17 games in each of his two seasons with the Yankees. He is coming back to a comfort zone in Arizona. Johnson had an E.R.A. of under 2.70 in five of his six seasons during his first stint with Arizona. While it is unlikely he will pitch at that level in 2007, Johnson could be poised to get his E.R.A down into the 3's if he can stay relatively healthy in 2007.

RHP-Livan Hernandez(32)-The veteran fared well in Arizona after coming over from Washington with a 3.76 E.R.A. in 10 starts for the Diamondbacks. Hernandez has pitched more than 200 innings and won more than ten games in each season in this decade. He is a solid number three guy with post-season experience.

LHP-Doug Davis(31)-After two solid years in Milwaukee, Davis struggled with an E.R.A. near five in his final season with the Brewers last season. Davis has a live arm and has recorded over 150 strikeouts in each of the last three years. However, control problems have stopped Davis from becoming more than a .500 pitcher.  

RHP-Enrique Gonzalez(24)-He struggled as a rookie in 2006 with an E.R.A. near six. Gonzalez will have a short leash if solid progress isn't made in 2007.

Overall rotation outlook: Webb will dominate as a number one while Arizona will likely struggle with Gonzalez and others in the number five spot. The 2-4 spots are all wild-cards. These three veterans have pros and cons going for and against them. It is likely that this trio will be a little up and down throughout the season. Still, this group has enough talent to make this overall rotation above average.

Bullpen-The Arizona bullpen is pretty average. It is not a strength for this club.

Setup relief-RHP Brandon Medders(27) and RHP Brandon Lyon(27) both posted E.R.A.'s of under four last season in setup roles. RHP Jose Valverde(27) began the season as the closer in 2006. He was very inconsistent but he has the potential to be a hammer in the 7th and 8th innings. RHP Juan Cruz(28) can start or relieve to bring versatility to the pen. The Diamondbacks don't have a proven lefty in the pen heading into 2007.

Closer-RHP Jorge Julio(28) was decent for Arizona after coming over from the Mets in mid-season. He is not an elite closer and has control issues at times.

Overall pitching outlook: This staff was 5th in the NL in E.R.A. last season. The starters, for the most part, should be able to pitch deep into games. The bullpen is respectable with some live arms. Arizona is likely to rank in the upper half in pitching in the NL again this season.

Final recap and recommendation: Only one National League squad broke through to win more than 90 games last season. The 2007 campaign should produce another season of parity in the senior circuit. With a talented young lineup to go with a legit No. 1 starter in the pitching rotation, the Diamondbacks are going to continue to improve. Arizona should be able to win at least 78 games this year.

OVER 77 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

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