No. 8 Kentucky pk vs. No. 9 Villanova

at Chicago, Ill. / Friday 9:40 pm ET

Kentucky (21-11, 9-7 SEC) (14-16-1 ATS, 17-13-1 O/U) Berth: At-large
While most Kentucky fans are frustrated by a 10-loss regular season, the Wildcats will not go away quietly in this year's tournament. In recent years, Kentucky has been over-matched in big games (2-15 SU in last 17 games vs. ranked opponents). This drop in talent level will probably make it difficult for the Wildcats to get beyond the second round in this year's tournament. However, Kentucky's defense will give them a good opportunity to advance in the first round. Opponents were held to under 40% FG shooting during the regular season. This defense helps to offset an average offense. Randolph Morris leads the team in scoring at 15 ppg. The 6-11 junior has been inconsistent for the Wildcats. Junior guards Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford each average 14 ppg to lead the backcourt attack for Kentucky. In two of the last three years, the Wildcats have been knocked out in the second round of the tournament. Last season, Kentucky advanced in the first round as a 3-point favorite over UAB by a count of 69-64. The Wildcats defensive intensity will be difficult to attack for opponents that haven't played Kentucky before. Kentucky will likely repeat their recent trend of winning in the first round before falling in round two. Key Stat: Since 1988, Kentucky is 16-0 SU in first-round NCAA tournament games.

Villanova (22-10, 9-7 Big East) (16-11-2 ATS, 14-15-2 O/U) Berth: At-large
After being a top seed in last year's tournament, the Wildcats have had to work just to get into this year's tourney. Villanova made it to the Elite 8 last season before falling to eventual champion Florida. The Wildcats went 0-4 ATS in last year's tournament. A drop off was expected for this season after the departure of star guard Randy Foye. The club was bolstered by the return of senior forward Curtis Sumpter. He missed the entire 2005-06 season with a knee injury. Sumpter leads Villanova in scoring (17 ppg.) and rebounding (7 rpg). Guards Scottie Reynolds and Mike Nardi have combined to average 27 ppg. in the Villanova backcourt. The Wildcats will likely win with defense if they are able to advance into the second round. Villanova is not a good shooting team (43% FG) but the Wildcats offset this mediocre offense by holding opponents to a FG% of only 41%. While Villanova isn't accurate from the field, they are outstanding at the charity stripe. The Wildcats hit 78% of their free throws with Sumpter, Reynolds, and Nardi all connecting on over 80% of their chances from the line. This ability to convert free throws could be a deciding factor for Villanova in what figures to be a close NCAA first round matchup. Key Stat: Villanova is 8-3 ATS vs. non-conference opponents this season.

Final Take: Given Kentucky's prowess in first round games (16-0 SU) and 'Nova's inability to shoot a high percentage from the floor, we'll take the Cats. Recommendation: Kentucky pick 'em

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