by Jared Klein, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

With the NHL Playoffs just around the corner teams are getting healthy at the right time.  Here are a couple of returning players that should provide dividends down the stretch for their teams. 

The Buffalo Sabres are starting to get healthy just in time for the playoffs, with forward Ales Kotalik the latest player ready to return.  Kotalik, missed 16 games with a right knee injury and practiced fully on Monday.  He is expected to play in Buffalo's home game against New Jersey on Wednesday.  "If things keep going the way they've been doing so far, I'm not seeing any problems playing Wednesday," Kotalik was quoted as saying.  Toni Lydman, who's missed five games with an undisclosed upper body injury, and rookie forward Daniel Paille, who's missed 15 games with a broken left index finger, are also close to returning.  If Buffalo is healthy they are as dangerous as any playoff team in the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs Forward Tomas Kaberle expects to make his return on Friday night, when the Leafs visit the Buffalo Sabres, according to the Leafs' official site. Kaberle is easily the Maple Leafs second best defensemen and will provide a big boost to the Toronto blueline. 

Nashville Predators forward Scott Hartnell, who hasn't played since Feb. 22 because of a broken foot, skated last week for the first time since suffering the injury.  Predators' Head coach Barry Trotz said the team is hoping to get Hartnell back in the lineup for the last few games of the season.

Flames winger Darren McCarty has been skating with the Flames this week and hopes to play before the end of the regular season.  McCarty has been recovering from surgery to repair a sports hernia and while he most likely will not play again the regular season, he could provide tremendous grit in the playoffs.

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 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 22nd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Pittsburgh Pirates-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 70 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-67
2005-67
2004-72

3-year average: 69  

Lineup-Young star Jason Bay is the top bat for Pittsburgh's lineup. Here's a look:

C-Ronny Paulino(25): Paulino hit .310 for the Buccs as a rookie in 2006. Pittsburgh is hoping that he will improve on his power production (6 HR's on 2006) in 2007.

1B-Adam Laroche(27): Laroche gives the Pirates the left-handed power bat to compliment Bay. Laroche pounded 32 HR's in Atlanta last season.

2B-Freddy Sanchez(29): Sanchez was the surprise NL batting champ in 2006 after hitting .344. He was more than a singles hitter with 53 doubles and 85 RBI's for the Pirates.

SS-Jack Wilson(29): Since hitting .308 in 2004, Wilson has a been a disappointment. He only had 35 RBI's in over 500 at-bats last season.

3B-Jose Bautista(26): Bautista showed some pop with 16 HR's in 2006 in 117 games. However, he must hit for a higher average (.235 in 2006) and make more contact (110 K's in 2006) in 2007.

LF-Jason Bay(28): Bay has established himself as an elite power bat after hitting more than 30 HR's with more than 100 RBI's for the 2nd consecutive year in 2006. He will have some needed protection with Laroche on board for 2007.  

CF-Chris Duffy(26): Duffy will try to deliver some offense in 2007 after not showing much in 2006. He did steal 26 bases in just 84 games last season.   

RF-Xavier Nady(28): Nady hasn't been able to make an impact in his young career so far. He has never played in more than 130 games in any season. Nady did have a career-high 17 HR's last season.   


Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters and 2 left-handed batters): The Pirates were last in the NL in runs scored and homers in 2006. Pittsburgh will be hard pressed to make any significant offensive improvements in 2007. While Laroche will provide a lift, the overall lineup is still pretty suspect. Wilson, Bautista, Duffy, and Nady are not impact bats. Paulino and Sanchez are high average hitters but are lacking in power. The Pirates will need to do the little things, like advancing runners, to get the most out of their offense this season. Pittsburgh will be near the bottom in runs scored again in 2007.   

Starting rotation-The Pirates have some promising young arms in their rotation.

LHP-Zach Duke(23): Duke had a sophomore slump in 2006 after posting a brilliant 1.81 E.R.A. in 14 starts as a rookie in 2005. He struggled with an E.R.A. of over five in the first half of 2006 but settled in to post a 3.65 E.R.A. after the All-Star break.

RHP-Ian Snell(25): Snell was solid in his first full season as a starter by winning 14 games for the Pirates. He had 169 strikeouts in 186 innings of work for Pittsburgh in 2006.

LHP-Paul Maholm(24): Maholm was very effective at home (3.59 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (6.14 E.R.A.) in 2006. The youngster needs to improve on his control after issuing 81 walks in 176 innings of pitching last season.

LHP-Tom Gorzelanny(24): Gorzelanny showed immediate promise as a rookie in 2006 with an E.R.A. of under four. Like Maholm, the young hurler had some control issues with 31 walks in 62.2 innings of work last season.  

RHP-Tony Armas(28): A once promising career has been slowed by some arm injury woes. From 2003-05, Armas was only able to make 40 starts due to injuries.   


Overall rotation outlook: The Pirates organization has produced some quality young arms. With all four of the top starters being 25 or younger, Pittsburgh has a nice foundation to build upon. While there will be some growing pains for this youthful staff, these lively arms will keep the Buccs in a lot of games in 2007. This rotation could be a top flight NL staff in the next two to three years. In 2007, the Pirates starters will be a middle of the pack NL rotation.      

Bullpen-The Pirates will need to replace one of the best young closers in baseball.

Setup relief-RHP Matt Capps(23) was durable member of the Pirates pen in 2006 with 85 appearances. He displayed outstanding control with only 12 walks in over 80 innings of work. Veteran LHP Damaso Marte(32) has established himself as a power arm setup guy in recent years. LHP John Grabow(28) was a dependable lefty setup specialist in 2006. RHP Shawn Chacon(29) has experience as a closer in addition to more recent efforts as a starter.   

Closer-RHP Salomon Torres(35): Torres will replace the departed Mike Gonzalez as the Pirates closer in 2006. Torres did gain some closing opportunities in 2006 with 12 saves after appearing in a whopping 94 games for Pittsburgh.

Overall pitching outlook: The Pirates ranked 9th in the NL in runs allowed last season. Pittsburgh should be able to make some strides in 2007 as the young staff takes another step forward. The Pirates hurlers do need to improve with some more consistent efforts on the road in 2007 as Pittsburgh's pitching was not effective on the road in 2006. Still, the Pirates should be able to stay in a lot of games this year with their promising young pitchers. Look for Pittsburgh to move up a spot of two in the NL runs allowed rankings in 2007.      

Final recap and recommendation: The Pirates gave visiting teams a lot of trouble in 2006 with a solid 43-38 home record. Unfortunately, these solid efforts were lost on the road as the Pirates were a woeful 24-57 in their 2006 away efforts. While this young squad will still be over matched at times, Pittsburgh should be a more competitive and consistent team in 2007. The lineup still has some holes but the Laroche-Bay combo should lift this team to a few more wins in 2007. The pitching of the Pirates will enable the Buccs to grind out a few extra wins as well in 2007. While Pittsburgh still has a long way to go before they can become a winning team, the Pirates have enough positives in 2007 to nudge past 70 wins this season.          

OVER 70 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

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Oregon - Oregon has been an undervalued team all season long.  The Ducks were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the PAC-10; head coach Ernie Kent was on the hot seat after consecutive sub par seasons.  But Oregon exceeded all expectations in non-conference play, reeling off 18 victories in their first 19 games, including upsets over Georgetown, Arizona and UCLA.  While the Ducks couldn't keep up that pace, stumbling repeatedly down the stretch of the regular season, they stepped up their play for the PAC-10 tournament, setting a conference tournament record for the largest margin of victory, winning by a combined margin of 61 points in the three games.  The Ducks survived a first round scare against Miami-Ohio as the Redhawks slowed the tempo to a crawl, forcing Oregon to play a halfcourt game, but took control early in the second half against Winthrop in Round 2. dominating thereafter.  Oregon's lightning quick backcourt featuring senior Aaron Brooks, 5-6 dynamo Tajuan Porter and steady Bryce Taylor loves to push the pace, playing uptempo basketball.  Big men Marty Leunen and Malik Hairston are not lockdown low post defenders, spending much of their time on the perimeter.  All five starters average in double figures - this team is poised to withstand an off-night from any one of their key scorers. Key Stat: Of all the teams remaining in the tournament, Oregon has the worst defensive statistics, ranked 177th in the nation in FG% allowed.

UNLV - hadn't won an NCAA tournament game since the Jerry Tarkanian era ended 15 years ago, prior to this past weekend.  Executing with remarkable efficiency down the stretch of tight games, the Runnin' Rebels pulled off a pair of upsets against Georgia Tech and Wisconsin, ending that long tournament drought.  The key to the Rebels success in both games was their intense, pressure defense.  Lon Kruger's squad held the Yellow Jackets and Badgers to a combined 46-of-112 (41%) from the floor; 8-of-32 (25%) from 3-pt. land.  Senior point guard Kevin Kruger regained his shooting touch against Wisconsin on Sunday, while dishing out seven assists without a turnover.  Leading scorer Wink Adams drained a trio of three pointers for the fourth consecutive game.  But it was senior Wendall White who was most responsible for the Rebels surprising march to the Sweet 16, leading the team with 19 points against Georgia Tech and 22 against Wisconsin.  UNLV continues to get strong low post defense from Joel Anthony and Gaston Essenque, both excellent shot blockers.  This is a surging team right now, winners of nine straight ballgames (8-0-1 ATS during that span), playing with a level of confidence that you only find on experienced, senior laden squads. Key Stat: UNLV is now 9-2 ATS as an underdog this year, winning outright at Texas Tech, Houston, Hawaii and Nevada, along with their upsets over Georgia Tech and Wisconsin this past weekend.

Final Take: Two favorable matchups for UNLV come to and end as they face a tough Ducks team that has plenty of offense and just enough defense to cover the small number.

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Tubby Smith left Lexington for 'greener' pastures in Minneapolis yesterday, accepting the vacant Golden Gophers head coaching job. By all accounts, this looks like a 'win-win' situation for both programs.

Smith certainly had great success at Kentucky. He won a national championship with the Wildcats (albeit with Pick Pitino's recruits). Kentucky made the NCAA tournament every year during Smith's tenure. They won five SEC titles in ten years. And Smith won 76% of his games as Kentucky's head coach, a stellar record at most schools in the country.... but not at Kentucky.

The Wildcats rabid fan base wanted more. The winningest program in the history of college basketball has enormous expectations. Kentucky didn't take home any SEC hardware in the past two seasons - no regular season titles, no conference tournament titles. Their fourth place finish in the SEC East this year was a disaster for Smith, as his program was clearly falling behind the new power elite of the SEC: Florida and Tennessee. Losing ten or more games five times in the last eight years was not something that the Kentucky alumni were willing to tolerate. And without a Final Four appearance since their national championship season in 1998, after a ten year run, it was time for Smith to leave.

Smith signed a seven year deal at $1.8 million per year to take over the floundering Minnesota program. When Clem Haskins was coaching the Gophers, Minnesota was a consistent Big 10 contender, but the program never recovered from the scandals that cost Haskins his job. Dan Monson was hired from Gonzaga, but Monson watched his Zags become a national powerhouse while the Gophers struggled to compete in the Big 10. The Gophers haven't won a game in the Big Dance in more than a decade.

The Gophers got quality recruits on a consistent basis under Haskins. Trent Tucker, Voshon Lenard, Bobby Jackson and Walter Bond are just a handful of the Gopher alumni who went on to NBA success. IN recent years, however, the talent level just hasn't been there. Joel Przybilla, Kris Humphries and Sam Jacobson are the only three Gophers to reach the NBA in the last ten years. Smith, with his national championship ring, should immediately improve Minnesota's recruiting fortunes.

He'll have his work cut out for him at Minnesota next year. The Gophers went 9-22 in the 2007 campaign, just 3-13 in the Big 10. During Monson's tenure, Williams Arena declined from one of the toughest homecourts in all of college basketball into a lifeless, empty loserdome, as opposing teams dominated Minnesota on their home floor. There's little reason to think that Smith won't be able to gradually build this program back up, making this a win-win situation for both the Minnesota and the Kentucky basketball programs.

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 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 21st of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Philadelphia Phillies-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 88 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-85
2005-88
2004-86

3-year average: 86  

Lineup-Philly's lineup is led by MVP Ryan Howard. Here's a look:

C-Rod Barajas(31): Barajas developed some power in his three seasons in Texas with 47 HR's. He should be able to hit at least 15 HR's this year while playing half of his games in a lively ballpark in Philly.

1B-Ryan Howard(27): Howard put up some incredible numbers (58 HR's, 149 RBI's) in 2006 to win the NL MVP. He was especially hot after the All-Star break with a .355 batting average.

2B-Chase Utley(28): Another young star in the Phillies lineup. Utley drove in more than 100 runs for the second year in a row while scoring 131 runs in 2006.

SS-Jimmy Rollins(28): After never hitting more than 14 HR's in a season, Rollins hit 25 HR's in 2006. He has averaged 120 runs scored over the last three seasons.

3B-Wes Helms(31): Helms hit .385 in 130 at-bats after the All-Star break last season for the Marlins. He has only had more than 300 at-bats in a season once in his career. Helms will likely share some playing time at third with Abraham Nunez.

LF-Pat Burrell(30): The former No. 1 overall MLB draft pick has been inconsistent in his big league career. While some think he is capable of even more, Burrell has been solid over the last two seasons by averaging 31 HR's with 106 RBI's. He has also developed more patience at the plate with 197 walks in 2005-06.  

CF-Aaron Rowand(29): Rowand became a fan favorite after running into a wall to make a catch in his first season with the Phillies. The memorable play did put him on the DL as he missed 53 games last year. Rowand's name has come up in some trade discussions this spring. He is not a impact hitter but Rowand has some solid intangibles for a ballclub.   

RF-Shane Victorino(26): Victorino hit a solid .287 in his first full big league campaign in 2006. The Phillies are hoping for a little more power production (6 HR's, 46 RBI's in 2006) from him in 2007.


Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The Phillies led the NL in runs scored in 2006. Philadelphia has four big impact bats to go to war with. Only the Mets can rival the big 4 (Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Burrell) that the Phillies have in the NL. The other four hitting spots are pretty average but respectable. With the thunder in the other half of the lineup, the Philadelphia role players don't have to do too much. Phiadelphia will make another run at being the top NL offense again in 2007.     

Starting rotation-The Phillies have a solid group of starting arms in 2007.



RHP-Brett Myers(26): Myers has established himself as one of the NL's better young hurlers after his second straight campaign with an E.R.A. of under four in 2006. He has recorded 397 strikeouts over the last two seasons.

RHP-Freddy Garcia(30): Garcia may start the season on the DL after suffering a biceps injury in spring training. He brings some quality post-season experience and durability to Philly. Garcia has logged more than 200 innings in seven of his eight big league seasons.

LHP-Jamie Moyer(44): Moyer's the definition of a crafty lefty. He was a solid 5-2 in eight starts for the Phillies last season after coming over from Seattle. Age is not much of a concern with his unique pitching style.

LHP-Cole Hamels(23): Hamels is the polar opposite of Moyer. Hamels is a lefty with hard and electric stuff. He settled down in his rookie campaign last season after the All-Star break to post a 3.39 E.R.A. in 14 starts. Hamels recorded 145 strikeouts in 132.1 innings pitched.  

RHP-Adam Eaton(29): Eaton has been able to make only 35 starts over the last two seasons due to injuries. He has been a solid pitcher in his career (54-45 record) but he has never had an E.R.A. of under four in a season.  


Overall rotation outlook: The Phillies have excellent depth in their starting rotation. Philadelphia actually has six quality starters with veteran Jon Lieber being the current odd man out of the rotation. Lieber will likely be dealt although he can be a solid insurance policy if Garcia's injury worsens. Myers and Hamels form a great young power arm tandem for Philly. Garcia and Moyer are steady vets to support the youngsters. Eaton is well above average for a 5th starter. The Phillies are well set for a playoff run with this rotation. Philadelphia should have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Phillies bullpen isn't quite as strong as their rotation.

Setup relief-RHP Ryan Madson(26) is a versatile arm in the pen who can work more than one inning. RHP Geoff Geary(30) stepped up to have a big year for Philly in 2006 with an E.R.A. of under three in 81 games. The rest of the setup relief could be a little shaky. The pen doesn't have a proven left-hander and there isn't much depth.   

Closer-RHP Tom Gordon(39): Gordon returned to the full-time closing role in 2006 for the first time since 2001. He responded with a quality season by saving 34 of 39 chances for the Phillies.

Overall pitching outlook: Only three NL staffs allowed more runs than the Phillies in 2006. While the lively ballpark in Philly will lead to some skewed pitching numbers at times, the pitching staff will need to improve for the Phillies to have a playoff opportunity in 2007. The rotation has been overhauled since last season's Opening Day as Myers will be the only returning hurler from last April's rotation. Philly will be able to compete on most days with their quality rotation. The bullpen isn't as strong but Gordon is a solid closer. This group will need to step up. Overall, the Phillies should be able to move up to a middle of the pack ranking in NL runs allowed in 2007.    

Final recap and recommendation: The Phillies have been in a holding pattern in the last six seasons. Since 2001, the Phillies have won at least 85 games five times but have never won more than 88 games during any of these years. There have been some character and chemistry questions about this team. Philadelphia has been unable to deliver in September despite having some chances to be a playoff team. The organization has assembled some outstanding talents in the lineup and rotation. With Howard, Utley, Rollins, Myers, and Hamels, the Phillies have an opportunity to be a force in the NL for years to come. The pitching problems from a year ago have been addressed. The combination of the offense and starting pitching will enable the Phillies to break through to win at least 90 games in 2007.      

OVER 88 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

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