by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 24th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Seattle Mariners-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 77 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-78
2005-69
2004-63

3-year average: 70  

Lineup-The Mariners hope to improve on last year's mediocre production in 2007. Here's a look:

C-Kenji Johjima(30): Johjima delivered some quality offensive production at the catching position in 2006 with 76 RBI's and a .291 average.

1B-Richie Sexson(32): Sexson could be poised for a huge campaign in 2007 after hitting .322 after last season's All-Star break. His first half slump (.218 average), along with Adrian Beltre's poor first half, doomed the Mariners in 2006. Sexson has been a steady power bat with six career 100+ RBI seasons.

2B-Jose Lopez(23): The youngster had 58 RBI's prior to the All-Star break last season but Lopez only drove in 21 in the second half of the year. He should be more consistent in 2007.

SS-Yuniesky Betancourt(25): A nice compliment to Lopez, Betancourt hit a solid .289 in 2006. He needs to develop some better plate discipline as Betancourt had only 17 walks in 558 at-bats last year.

3B-Adrian Beltre(28): Beltre finally showed some signs of living up to his big contract in 2006. After hitting only two
homers with 16 RBI's in the first two months of the season, Beltre pounded 23 HR's with 73 RBI's in the final four months of 2006.

LF-Raul Ibanez(34): Ibanez had a career-year in 2006 with 33 HR's and 123 RBI's.  

CF-Ichiro Suzuki(33): Suzuki produced his sixth straight year with at least 200 hits and 100 runs scored in 2006. He makes the transition to center field in 2007.

RF-Jose Guillen(30): Guillen will be playing for his 8th team in the last 9 years in 2007. The controversial player averaged 27 HR's with 89 RBI's from 2003-05. Guillen could be poised for a bounce back season in 2007 after missing 93 games last year.

DH-Jose Vidro(32): After hitting over .300 in five consecutive years from 1999-2003, Vidro has been slowed by injuries over the last three years. He has missed the basic equivalant of a full season with 163 games missed since 2004.

Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): Only Tampa Bay scored fewer runs in the AL in 2006 than Seattle. The numbers seem a bit odd for a team with four (Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and Suzuki) impact bats in the lineup. 2007 should produce some better results. Sexson and Beltre came on after slow starts in 2006. The additions of Guillen and Vidro will provide some more depth to this lineup. The main problem for Seattle in 2006 was their inability to draw walks. This problem will likely come into play in 2007 at times as the Mariners have a lineup of free swingers. However, youngsters like Lopez and Betancourt should improve in this area with more experience. Seattle has assembled a quality 1-9 everyday lineup that is poised for more production in 2007. The Mariners have enough impact hitters and promising youngsters to move up to a middle of the pack AL offense in 2007.   

Starting rotation-The Mariners have a decent if not outstanding staff of starters for 2007.

LHP-Jarrod Washburn(32): The lefty had a disappointing first season in Seattle with an E.R.A. of over 4 1/2 after posting a strong 3.20 E.R.A. in his last season with the Angels. Washburn struggled mightily on the road in 2006 with an E.R.A. of nearly six.

RHP-Felix Hernandez(21): One of baseball's most highly-touted young arms had some growing pains in 2006 after showing some brilliance in 12 starts as a rookie in 2005. Like Washburn, Hernandez was strong at home but weak on the road in 2006 with an away E.R.A. of 5.47. There is still plenty of optimism in Seattle for this 21 year-old hurler.

RHP-Jeff Weaver(30): Weaver's stock went up after a big post-season for the Cardinals last year. However, Weaver has been inconsistent in his big league career. He was very solid with the Tigers and Dodgers while flopping in stops with the Yankees and Angels. Pitching friendly Safeco Park should be a good fit for Weaver's style of pitching.  

RHP-Miguel Batista(36): Batitsta has struggled with some control issues in his last two seasons as a starting pitcher. Like Weaver, Batista should benefit from pitching half of his games in Seattle after hurling in hitting parks with Arizona and Toronto.  

LHP-Horacio Ramirez(27): Since a 12-4 rookie campaign in 2003, Ramirez has been slowed by injuries. He only made 9 starts in 2004 and was limited to 14 appearances last season. Ramirez has the potential to be above average as a back of the rotation guy in 2007.

Overall rotation outlook: The 4.48 E.R.A. of Ramirez was the lowest in 2006 for the five projected starters. While this is a cause for concern, this staff is poised for some better results in 2007. Washburn should be able to make some adjustments to fare better on the road in 2007. Hernandez will be a dominant number one sooner rather than later. The three newcomers have decent track records. While Hernandez is still developing into an elite hurler, this staff will lack a top flight number one starter in 2007. However, the depth of this rotation is above average as Weaver, Batista, and Ramirez will be able to keep the Mariners in most games at the back end of the rotation. The Mariners will have a solid if not great starting staff in 2007.  

Bullpen-The Mariners have some issues to settle this spring in their pen after dealing top setup hurler Rafael Soriano in the off-season.

Setup relief-RHP Chris Reitsma(29) should fare better in a setup role after some struggles as a closer in Atlanta. LHP George Sherrill(29) was a quality specialist for Seattle in 2006. RHP Julio Mateo(29) picked up nine wins out of the pen last season. RHP Jon Huber(25) showed some promise as a rookie in 2006 with an E.R.A. of just over one in 16 appearances.

Closer-RHP J.J. Putz(30): Putz displayed some electric stuff after moving into the closer's role early last year for Eddie Guardado. He allowed only 59 hits in 78.1 innings of work with 104 punch outs in 2006.  

Overall pitching outlook: The Mariners finished 9th in the AL in runs allowed in 2006. This staff should be able to improve by a notch or two in 2007. The rotation has solid depth while the bullpen is still a quality group although Soriano's loss will be felt. Putz is developing into a top flight closer for the Mariners. Seattle will need to pitch better away from home this season. The inconsistency from home to road left Seattle with only 34 away wins a year ago. The Mariners come through with an improved pitching squad in 2007.

Final recap and recommendation: In the first half of this decade (2000-03), the Mariners averaged 98 wins per season. Seattle suffered a quick and drastic fall in 2004 with a 99-loss season. The Mariners got old in a hurry. Suzuki is the only player left from the winning run. The climb back to respectability has been gradual. In 2005, the Mariners won 69 games. Last season, the squad won 78 games. In 2007, the Seattle rebuilding process will be ready to take the next step. A winning season. The Mariners have a solid group of veteran bats in their everyday lineup. With these players being in their late 20's or early 30's, Seattle will score more runs in 2007. The pitching is solid and it could be very good if Washburn bounces back. Hernandez could make some strides towards becoming a number one in 2007. The improvement continues for Seattle in 2007 as the Mariners post a winning season.  

OVER 77 1/2 WINS-** 2-Stars

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com  

Arizona Rattlers

The Arizona Rattlers finally got their first victory of the season this past weekend, blowing out Las Vegas 68-41. Arizona has now scored 65+ in three out of their four games, an impressive accomplishment considering the fact that the Rattlers have lost their top three receivers to serious injuries.  Last year's AFL Ironman of the Year, Randy Gatewood, was placed on injured reserve, out for at least a month.  Cosmo DeMatteo, who had 171 receiving yards in the season opener against Georgia is also languishing on injured reserve.  And Jeremiah Pope, who leads the team in touchdown catches was also forced to sit out this past weekend due to injury concerns.  Unfortunately for the Rattlers, the injuries don't end there.  Arizona lost defensive back Erin Damond with a pulled hamstring, receiver Atnaf Harris with a fractured hand and receiver/defensive back Justin Taplin with a possible torn knee ligament in their win over the Gladiators.   That leaves Arizona extremely banged up on both sides of the football as they prepare for their trip to Kansas City this weekend.

Grand Rapids Rampage
The AFL is an offensive league, where each possession truly is precious.  The best teams in the league score touchdowns nearly every time they have the football.  The teams in the AFL live and die by the play of their quarterbacks.  The league's best teams have stellar QB's, a deep set of wide receivers, and an offensive line that gives the quarterback ample time to find those receivers downfield.  Grand Rapids has none of those.  In four games, the Rampage have started three different quarterbacks.  Chad Salisbury went down to injury in the season opening upset win at Colorado.  Matt Sauk was cut following a pair of unimpressive performances against Las Vegas and Philadelphia.  Michael Bishop had modest success with Grand Rapids back in 2004, and was re-acquired in a trade with Kansas City less than two weeks ago.   But Bishop's first start in this go-round with the Rampage was nothing short of a disaster: three interceptions, three sacks and only two touchdown passes in a 41 point defeat.  The Rampage have now lost their last three games by a combined margin of 80 points, losing each of those games by at least three touchdowns ATS.

Los Angeles Avengers
In my preseason AFL power ratings, I had LA listed as a bottom feeder, the second worst team in the league.  After all, last year, LA had a truly dismal defense with an offense that didn't seem capable of trading points with anybody.  Things didn't look particularly promising following their season opener, an eight point home loss to San Jose.  It's surely worth noting that the Avengers opening game loss to the Sabercats was the only game in the AFL all season in which a team won the turnover battle by two or more, but still lost the game in straight up fashion.  But since that time, LA has stepped up their play, winning back-to-back games on the road thanks to a pair of stellar defensive efforts.  First, the Avengers shut down Orlando, beating the Predators in an overtime battle at 'The Jungle' 44-37, winning outright as double digit underdogs.  The Avengers then shut down New Orleans 48-36 this past weekend, forcing VooDoo quarterback Andy Kelly's first interception of the season.  It's not easy for any team to go on the road and win consecutive games while scoring less than 50 points in both contests.  LA will have to prove their defensive mettle once again this weekend as they travel to Chicago to take on the defending Arena Bowl champs.

Philadelphia Soul
The Soul were a major disappointment last year.  Quarterback Tony Graziani, a high-priced offseason free agent signing, battled injuries all season, unable to stay healthy.  The Soul were mediocre at best defensively, rarely able to generate a consistent pass rush.  But this year has been a completely different story so far.  The Soul had a bye week on the very first week of the season, and they used that time to get this team primed for a fast start, and did so dominating each of their first three opponents.  The Soul beat Nashville by 33 in their opener, then beat Grand Rapids by 29 and Colorado by 24 over the next two weeks.  While Philly has yet to beat a top-tier opponent, it looks as if celebrity owner Jon Bon Jovi has his best team since its inception.  Nearly 15,000 fans supported the Soul and the Wachovia Center this past weekend, clearly a team to watch out for as they travel to Nassau Coliseum to take on the New York Dragons this coming weekend.  The Soul, now in their fourth season in the league, have drawn a league best 387,491 fans since their inception.

Utah Blaze
Utah's offense has been second to none through the first four games of the AFL season.  The Blaze scored a league season high 83 points this past weekend in their blowout win over Grand Rapids, setting a franchise record with the 41 point margin of victory as well the 83 points scored.  The Blaze lead the league with their 69 points per game average as well as their better than 8.5 yards per offensive play.  Quarterback Joe Germaine threw for 9.5 yards per pass attempt in the record setting win over the Rampage while star receiver Siaha Burley led the team with ten receptions, four of them for touchdowns.  Germaine ranks second in the AFL in touchdown passes and third in completion percentage while Burley is fourth in the league in receptions.  Utah's offense should continue to Blaze this coming weekend as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the defensively challenged Gladiators.

by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 23rd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


St. Louis Cardinals-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 84 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-83
2005-100
2004-105

3-year average: 96

Lineup-Superstar Albert Pujols is the driving force for the Redbirds offense. Here's a look:

C-Yadier Molina(24): Molina struggled at the plate in 2006 with a .216 average. He does make solid contact as Molina had only 41 strikeouts in over 400 at-bats last season.

1B-Albert Pujols(27): Pujols had career-highs in HR's and RBI's in 2006 despite missing 19 games. No star player has been more consistent than Pujols. He has averaged 42 HR's with 126 RBI's while hitting .332 in his first six big league seasons.

2B-Adam Kennedy(31): Kennedy is a solid .280 career hitter. He should be a nice fit in the St. Louis lineup.

SS-David Eckstein(32): The World Series MVP had a down regular season in 2006 after missing 39 games. He brings great intangibles to a team that goes beyond his numbers. Eckstein has scored at least 90 runs in three of the last five seasons.

3B-Scott Rolen(32): After hitting .331 in the first half of last season, Rolen slumped to .253 after the All-Star break. If fully healthy, Rolen is a quality bat to compliment Pujols. Rolen has driven in more than 100 runs five times in his career.

LF-Chris Duncan(26): Duncan gave the Cards a lift with 19 home runs after the All-Star break last season. He will be in a platoon in the outfield with veteran right-handed bat Preston Wilson.

CF-Jim Edmonds(36): Edmonds is rounding into form this spring after some off-season surgery. He was still productive in 2006 with 70 RBI's in just 110 games.

RF-Juan Encarnacion(31): Encarnacion has never put up huge numbers in his career but he is a productive bat. He drove in 79 runs for the Cards last season.


Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters and 2 left-handed batters): The Cardinals were 6th in the NL in runs scored in 2006. Injuries slowed this attack last season as Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Eckstein combined to miss 130 games. With this foursome likely to be more healthy in 2007, this offense should be more consistent this season. Kennedy's addition will also provide a nice boost. Pujols can carry this team for long stretches even if the other hitters aren't doing too much. Look for St. Louis to move up to the top five in NL offenses in 2007.

Starting rotation-The Cardinals have a lot of question marks in their rotation heading into this season.

RHP-Chris Carpenter(31): Carpenter is a sparkling 51-18 in his three seasons in St. Louis. He has been very durable with 12 complete games and 7 shutouts over the last two years. A top flight No. 1 starter.

RHP-Kip Wells(29): Wells has struggled since posting a strong 3.28 E.R.A. in 2003 with the Pirates. He only made nine starts in 2006. Wells could be poised for a resurgence as he gets to join a winning organization in 2007.

RHP-Anthony Reyes(25): Reyes struggled with an E.R.A. of nearly six in 11 starts after the All-Star break last season. He allowed an alarming 17 HR's in 85.1 innings of work in 2006.

RHP-Adam Wainwright(26): Wainwright jumps into the rotation after being a bullpen star in last year's post-season. He clearly has the stuff to be an impact hurler but the transition from reliever to starter could make this season a challenging one for Wainwright.

RHP-Braden Looper(32): Another former closer who will try to get it done in a starting role. Looper may have a more difficult time than Wainwright in the transition as Looper has been a big league reliever for nine seasons.


Overall rotation outlook: The Cardinals certainly have some questions behind Carpenter in the rotation. St. Louis will get lefty Mark Mulder back after the All-Star break to join this group. Manager Tony Larussa will have to very creative in managing spots 2-5 in the rotation. These starters will have trouble going deep into a good portion of their efforts this year. This will provide an even greater emphasis on the bullpen. Still, Carpenter will offset this by eating up a lot of innings in his starts. While St. Louis will not have one of the better NL rotations in 2007, there is still enough in this staff to keep the Cards in playoff contention this season.

Bullpen-The Cardinals will need their bullpen to come through to aid a questionable starting staff in 2007.

Setup relief-RHP Russ Springer(38) had a fine year in Houston last season with an E.R.A. of 3.47. RHP Brad Thompson(25) will play a bigger role in 2007 after posting a solid 3.34 E.R.A. in 2006. RHP Josh Hancock(29) can work more than one inning after logging 77 innings in 2006.

Closer-RHP Jason Isringhausen(34): After four outstanding years for the Cardinals, Isringhausen had a down year in 2006. He blew 10 saves and allowed a whopping 10 HR's in over 58 innings of work last season.

Overall pitching outlook: St. Louis allowed the 6th fewest amount of runs in the NL last seasons. The staff is aided by an outstanding defense. The Cardinals allowed the fewest amount of unearned runs in the league last season with 41. While St. Louis doesn't have an exceptional staff, Larussa will get the most out of this unit. Wainwright has the potential to be a No.2 starter behind Carpenter while Wells has had prior success. The Cardinals have lost some depth in their pen but St. Louis has been able to be resilient with their arms over the years. St. Louis will likely slip a notch or two in the NL rankings in 2007 as this staff will do just enough to keep the Cards competitive in 2007.

Final recap and recommendation: The Cardinals had an unusual regular season in 2006 as St. Louis had three losing streaks of seven games or more. These skids were clearly more of an exception than the norm for one of baseball's most consistent and successful teams in this decade. In the last seven seasons, the Cardinals have averaged 94 wins per season. After suffering their last down regular season (85 wins) in 2003, the Cards responded to win 105 games in 2004. While St. Louis doesn't have a 100-win caliber group for 2007, there is still enough on this club to have a better regular campaign this year. The hitting-pitching combo of Pujols-Carpenter can't be equaled by any NL team. These two stars will carry St. Louis a long way again in 2007. The winning culture in St. Louis has been elevated after the Cards finally cashed in to win a championship after so many near misses. St. Louis will defend their title in a solid fashion in 2007 with at least 85 victories.

OVER 84 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

by Teddy Covers, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Anybody and everybody, apparently, is welcome to apply for the head coaching job at my alma mater, the University of Michigan. You, too, can apply for this job by clicking on the link below and filling out the application. The link is RIGHT HERE.

The responsibilities of an NCAA Division 1A basketball head coach are listed in a simple, easy to follow format. Former head coach Tommy Amaker fulfilled all of his responsibilities, as listed on the link - recruiting qualified student athletes, supporting their academic progress, managing the basketball budget and engaging in 'community relations'. It was his 'coaching' (or lack thereof) that led to his dismissal.

It doesn't take too many qualifications to earn consideration for this position. The minimum requirements are a bachelor's degree and a thorough knowledge of NCAA rules and regulations. I've got the first of the two requirements, my bachelor's degree, sitting on my mantle, and with a reasonable amount of study, I'm quite certain that I could pass a test of the NCAA's rules and regulations. Heck, I've got a shot at this job!

Maybe I don't. Minimum requirements are one thing, 'preferred qualifications' are another thing entirely. Michigan would prefer a head coach with previous head coaching experience, something that I don't have at a Division 1A level. I'm quite certain that my experience coaching youth league basketball for seven and eight year old kids isn't going to cut the mustard here.

Michigan also wants a head coach with a graduate degree. I was lucky to get out of Ann Arbor with a BA, with absolutely no interest in continuing my studies following my graduation. There's no graduate degree on the horizon for this potential coach, although I doubt that my lack of a Master's degree would be a significant factor if the Wolverines brass liked the rest of my resume enough to offer me the job.

Athletic Director Bill Martin hasn't named any front runners for the position. Former Wolverine basketball standout and 13 year NBA veteran Gary Grant has thrown his name into the mix. Michigan hasn't won a Big 10 title since Grant helped them win conference championships in 1985 and 1986, flanked by Roy Tarpley, Butch Wade, Rich Relford and Antoine Joubert.
Grant was the head coach of the Southern California Legends in the American Basketball League last year, guiding his team to the finals.

Grant is certainly not the coach that the Wolverines are looking for at this stage of the game - he just came up when I did a google news search on potential Wolverines coaching candidates. Memphis head coach John Calipari, GWU head coach Karl Hobbs, Cal head coach Ben Braun, Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall, former Stanford and Golden State Warriors head coach Mike Montgomery, Washington State head coach Tony Bennett, West Virginia head coach John Beilein and UNLV head coach Lon Kruger have all been prominently mentioned in the search for the Wolverines new head honcho.

I doubt that there is anyone who will read this that is capable of getting an interview with Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin. That being said, it never hurts to try. Martin should expect my application in his inbox later today. There aren't many jobs that I would take over my current position here at Sportsmemo, but the head coaching gig at U of M would certainly pique my interest...

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

 by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

While the Final Four is set for this weekend in Atlanta, the final cuts are being made for NCAA Division 1A teams making a coaching change. Thirty-five (35) head coaches have been fired or moved on. Sixteen (16) schools have already replaced the outgoing coach, and I'll report all the hires as the teams fill the head coaching positions.  The biggest may still be yet to come, as rumors have Florida's Billy Donovan leaving to take over Kentucky.  We'll see and know more next week.

Click on the coaches name to read an article, along with past records and comments. *

 

 

Arkansas

Stan Heath (March 26)

Binghamton

Al Walker (March 5)

Bowling Green

Dan Dakich (March 13)

Chicago State

Kevin Jones (March 13)

Colorado

Ricardo Patton (March 9)

Colorado State

Dale Layer (March 12)

Denver

Terry Carroll (March 21)

Drake

Tom Davis (March 21)

Evansville

Steve Merfeld (March 3)

Georgia State

Michael Perry (March 4)

Harvard

Frank Sullivan (March 5)

Hawaii

Riley Wallace (March 10)

Illinois State

Porter Moser (March 5)

Indiana State

Royce Waltman (March 3)

Iowa

Steve Alford (March 22)

Kentucky

Tubby Smith (March 22)

Liberty

Randy Dunton (February 28)

Long Beach State

Larry Reynolds (March 20)

Marshall

Ron Jirsa (March 12)

MD-Eastern Shore

Larry Lessett (March 14)

Michigan

Tommy Amaker (March 17)

Minnesota

Dan Monson (November 30)

New Mexico

Ritchie McKay (March 10)

Northern Illinois

Rob Judson (March 10)

Princeton

Joe Scott (March 21)

Quinnipiac

Joe DeSantis (March 7)

Radford

Byron Samuels (February 27)

San Diego

Brad Holland (March 8)

Santa Clara

Dick Davey (March 5)

Southern Utah

Bill Evans (March 4)

St. Bonaventure

Anthony Solomon (March 8)

U-M-K-C

Rich Zvosec (March 13)

UC Riverside

David Spencer (March 13)

University So. Florida

Robert McCullum (March 9)

Utah

Ray Giacoletti (March 10)

Wyoming

Steve McClain (March 12)

 

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum