by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 26th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Texas Rangers-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-80
2005-79
2004-89

3-year average: 82

Lineup-The Rangers have one baseball's best offensive infields. Here's a look:

C-Gerald Laird(27): Although Laird hit .296 in 78 games last year, he doesn't figure to add much to the Texas offense as an everyday catcher. He only has 10 career HR's in 159 games.

1B-Mark Teixeira(27): Teixeira heated up with 24 HR's after the All-Star break after hitting only 9 HR's in the first half of 2006. He has averaged 38 HR's with 122 RBI's over the last three years.

2B-Ian Kinsler(24): Kinsler had a solid rookie campaign in 2006 with a .286 average and 14 HR's in 120 games.

SS-Michael Young(30): Young hit over the .300 mark for the fourth straight season in 2006. He had 52 doubles and drove in 103 runs last year.

3B-Hank Blalock(26): After averaging 29 HR's with 97 RBI's from 2003-05, Blalock slipped a bit in 2006 with 16 HR's and 89 RBI's.

LF-Brad Wilkerson(29): Wilkerson was a disappointment in his first season in Texas with a .222 average. The Rangers are hoping that he can return to his 2004 form when he pounded 32 homers for the Expos.

CF-Kenny Lofton(39): Lofton has had a resurgence in the last couple of seasons as he has hit over .300 in each campaign. He will platoon in center as Lofton will sit out against left-handed hurlers.

RF-Nelson Cruz(26): The youngster will get more of a look in 2007 after only hitting .223 in 41 games last year.

DH-Frank Catalanotto(32): Catalanatto has been a solid line drive hitter in his career with a .297 average. He will platoon with Sammy Sosa at DH in 2007.

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 4 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): The Rangers were 4th in the AL in runs scored in 2006. This lineup will likely drop back a notch or two in 2007. Texas lost Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews to free agency. While the infield, especially Teixeira and Young, is very solid, the rest of the batting order is pretty average. Home run power could be a minor issue for this team as Teixeria is the only player in this lineup who hit at least 20 HR's in 2006. Still, the Rangers have enough quality line drive and doubles hitters to remain in the top half of AL offenses in 2007.

Starting rotation-The Rangers have some question marks beyond their top two starters.

RHP-Vicente Padilla(29): Padilla gave the Rangers a quality first season with 15 wins in 2006. However, he hasn't had an E.R.A. below 4.50 since 2003.

RHP-Kevin Millwood(32): Millwood's numbers were similar to Padilla's in 2006 as the veteran won 16 games. Like Padilla, his E.R.A. (4.52 in 2006) is a little high for a No. 1-2 starter.

RHP-Robinson Tejada(25): The hard throwing youngster is still trying to harness his stuff. Tejada, due to his control problems, has been a 5-inning pitcher in his career because of high pitch counts. However, he does have some nice potential.

RHP-Brandon McCarthy(23): McCarthy displayed a lot of promise in two seasons with the White Sox. However, he isn't in a great environment for a young pitcher with half of his starts set to come in one of the more lively big league ball parks in Arlington.

RHP-Jamey Wright(32): Wright's inclusion in the rotation can't exactly be viewed as a promising sign for the 2007 Texas season. The ultimate journeyman hurler has a career record of 67-98 with an E.R.A. of over five.

Overall rotation outlook: The Rangers will have to closely monitor the back half of this rotation in 2007. Tejada and McCarthy have never been starting pitchers for an entire season. Will they be able to hold up over 30 starts in the Texas heat? The fifth spot will likely be a revolving door as Wright is a long shot to stay in this rotation over an entire campaign. While Padilla and Millwood will keep Texas in a lot of games, they aren't a dominant 1-2 combo compared to a lot of other AL staffs. The Rangers rotation will likely be in the lower half of AL staffs in 2007.

Bullpen-Eric Gagne will try to overcome some recent injuries as the new Rangers closer.

Setup relief-RHP Akinori Otsuka(35) was outstanding as the Texas closer in 2006 with 32 saves and an E.R.A. of just over two. If things go according to plans, he will be the 8th inning guy in 2007 before Gagne comes in for the 9th. LHP Ron Mahay(35) will be the key lefty specialist in 2007. Youngster LHP Scott Feldman(24) will get some more chances in 2007 after a solid campaign in 2006.

Closer-RHP Eric Gagne(31): Gagne will be activated in mid-April. It's been a long road back for Gagne as he has only pitched 15.1 innings over the last two years. For three years, he was as dominant as any closer in the history of baseball with 152 saves in 158 chances from 2002-04.

Overall pitching outlook: The Rangers were 8th in the AL in runs allowed in 2006. Texas will be hard pressed to repeat this ranking in 2007. Starting spots 3-5 are questionable. Also, these starters are unlikely to pitch deep into most games. The Otsuka-Gagne combo won't get as nearly as many opportunities as the Shields-Rodriguez duo in this division with the Angels. Otsuka and Gagne can only have a major impact if they get to pitch with a lead. The rest of the Rangers staff will have some difficulties accomplishing this in innings 1-7. Look for the Rangers to drop back a notch or two in the AL runs allowed category in 2007.

Final recap and recommendation: Since closing out the 90's with three playoff appearances in a four-year span, Texas has managed to produce only one winning season in this decade. The inability of this franchise to develop big league arms has led to its' downfall in recent years. While the A's and Angels are constantly producing top flight pitchers in their farm system from the AL West, the Rangers are not. All of the Texas projected starting pitchers and top bullpen arms for 2007 have come from outside the Rangers organization. Even with a dynamic infield of solid young players, the Rangers do not have enough in other areas to win. While Showalter has been knocked by some critics as a manager, he got a lot out of this team in the last three years. It would be surprising if new manager Ron Washington will be able to be an improvement compared to Showalter. Until the Rangers system starts producing some pitching talent, Texas will continue to have losing seasons.

UNDER 80 1/2 Wins * 1-Star

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 25th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 67 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-61
2005-67
2004-70

3-year average: 66  

Lineup-The Devil Rays have some promising youngsters in their lineup. Here's a look:

C-Dioner Navarro(23): Navarro is still adjusting to big league pitching with a .264 average in 451 career at-bats.

1B-TY Wiggington(29): After putting up some average offensive numbers in the NL with the Mets and Pirates, Wiggington had a fine year in Tampa last season with 24 HR's and 79 RBI's despite missing 40 games. He makes the move from third to first in 2007.   

2B-Jorge Cantu(25): Cantu was slowed by injuries in 2006 after he drove in 117 runs in 2005. Still, he was productive with 62 RBI's in 107 games last year.

SS-Ben Zobrist(25): Zobrist will need to produce to hold off top prospect B.J. Upton as the starting shortstop in 2007. Neither Zobrist or Upton did any damage at the plate in limited action last year but Upton is poised to eventually get the everyday job in Tampa.

3B-Akinori Iwamura(28): Iwamura hit 106 homers in his last three seasons in the Japanese league.

LF-Carl Crawford(25): Crawford hit a career-best .305 in 2006. He has increased his HR total in each of his five big league campaigns.  

CF-Rocco Baldelli(25): Baldelli made the long journey back to the field in 2006 after missing the entire 2005 season. He gave the D-Rays a lift by hitting .302 in 92 games with 57 RBI's. Baldelli could be poised for a huge 2007 after hitting 9 HR's last September.

RF-Delmon Young(21): Another top D-Rays prospect, Young hit .317 in 30 games as a rookie in 2006.   

DH-Johnny Gomes(26): Gomes hit only .216 in 2006 after hitting .282 in 2005. He has displayed some nice power with 41 homers in his career in only 762 at-bats.

Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The D-Rays were a distant last in the AL in runs scored in 2006. Tampa could be poised for some huge offensive improvement in 2007. Baldelli, Cantu, and Wiggington missed a combined 165 games last season. This trio was very productive when healthy in 2006. Also, Iwamura and Young will be significant new contributors in this year's lineup. There is some nice pop in the order as seven of the nine bats have the potential to hit 20+ HR's in 2007. While this young group will likely run hot and cold at times this season, the Tampa offense has gained some valuable experience in recent seasons. The Devil Rays will score a lot more runs in 2007 as this crew will do some surprising damage to some opposing AL pitching staffs this season.      

Starting rotation-The D-Rays have a shaky starting staff in 2007.

LHP-Scott Kazmir(23): The D-Rays made one of the great deals in recent memory when they picked up Kazmir from the Mets in 2004. Kazmir has been the lone bright spot in the Tampa rotation in the last two years with E.R.A's of 3.77 and 3.24. A solid number one for Tampa to build around in the years to come.

RHP-James Shields(25): As a rookie in 2006, Shields was solid at home (3.94 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (5.65 E.R.A.). He should make some progress in 2007 as Shields did record 104 strikeouts in 125.2 innings of work last year.

LHP-Casey Fossum(29): Control problems have kept Fossum from progressing as a big league starter. He only averaged 5.1 innings per start in 2006. With a 5.20 career E.R.A., Fossum isn't a lock to stay in this rotation throughout the 2007 season.   

RHP-Jae Seo(29): Seo seemed like a pitcher on the rise after posting a 2.59 E.R.A. with the Mets in 2005 in 14 starts. 2006 was a major reversal for him as he struggled to a 5.33 E.R.A. with the Dodgers and D-Rays. If he can pitch closer to his 2005 form this season, this staff could make some strides.   

RHP-Tim Corcoran(28): Corcoran posted a 4.41 E.R.A. in 16 starts for Tampa last season. He will need to harness his control in 2007 after issuing 48 walks in just 90.2 innings of work in 2006.

Overall rotation outlook: While the Tampa organization has been able to assemble some quality hitting prospects, the Devil Rays continue to suffer in the arms department. Beyond Kazmir, this rotation is razor thin. While pitchers like Shields and Seo have the potential to pitch better this season, these hurlers aren't likely to be able to provide much help to Kazmir in this rotation. The starting problems eventually lead to a worn down bullpen as well. The one positive for the pitching lies in the improved offense as this will take some of the pressure off of the starting hurlers in 2007. However, the D-Rays will join the Royals at the bottom of the AL starting pitching staffs in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Devil Rays pitching woes are also felt in the pen.

Setup relief-RHP Rudy Lugo(26) allowed only 75 hits in 85 innings of work last year. RHP Shawn Camp(31) was durable for the D-Rays with 75 appearances in 2006. He will look to improve in 2007 after allowing 93 hits in 75 innings last season. As a small-market club, the D-Rays aren't able to address their setup and middle relief adequately. The rest of the bullpen roles will have to be defined as the season progresses as a number of young hurlers try to gain innings out of the pen in 2007.  

Closer-RHP Seth McClung(26): After struggling as a starter in 2006, McClung fared better later in the season in the bullpen with six saves in seven opportunities. Control is a concern for McClung after he issued 68 walks in 103 innings last season.  

Overall pitching outlook: Only Baltimore and Kansas City gave up more runs in the AL last season than Tampa. With the overall staff being virtually unchanged from a year ago, the Devil Rays will struggle in the pitching department again in 2007. Beyond Kazmir, there really isn't much upside to this staff. The biggest downfall of the Tampa organization has been its' inability to develop arms in their farm system. Until this issue is resolved, the Devil Rays will continue to reside at the bottom of the AL East standings. Tampa will challenge for the worst AL pitching staff again in 2007.  

Final recap and recommendation: The Devil Rays have been consistent losers in their nine years as a major league team. In each season, Tampa Bay has lost more than 90 games. After nine long years, the Devil Rays are finally taking some small steps towards being a club that can soon avoid the 90-loss seasons. The everyday lineup has tremendous potential. However, the small market D-Rays may not be willing to pay the tab to keep players like Crawford and Baldelli on a long term basis. Still, for 2007, this lineup should be able to deliver some meaningful progress. While the pitching is suspect, the D-Rays will have Kazmir to turn to every 5th day. The pitching will likely keep the D-Rays in last place again in 2007. However, there is enough young thunder in the everyday lineup to enable Tampa Bay to win at least 68 games this season.    

OVER 67 1/2 WINS-* 1-Star

 by Erin Rynning, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Steve Trachsel - Baltimore Orioles - To put it mildly, Trachsel was all smoke and mirrors last year.  His 15-8 record was very much a mirage, while he contributed a fortunate 4.97 ERA with a ton of run-support (6.61 runs per game).  Moving to the American League and out of Shea Stadium, Trachsel and his flyball ways will be up against it.  In 2006, the right-hander recorded an unfavorable 79:78 SO:BB ratio in 164 innings pitched, and again with his move to the Orioles his 23 home runs surrendered will go up.  In addition, the now 36-year-old accomplished a Quality Start in just 13 of his 30 games started.  Trachsel features an array of 'traditional starter' pitches with a limited fastball, split, curve and change-up.  Intriguing, as the veteran posts a rare reverse split.  Over the last three years, left-handed bats slugged .390 against him, while right-handed bats slugged .498.  I'll be looking to 'fade' Trachsel early and often as his stay in the Orioles rotation could be short lived. 

Tomokazu Ohka - Toronto Blue Jays - Ohka was limited to just 97 innings last year, while dealing with a bum shoulder.  His overall numbers slid in return from the disabled list in 2006, while overall a 4.82 ERA with just 50 strikeouts in those 97 frames.  I watched him visually pitch in early August and he had nothing.  Keep in mind the 31-year-old worked with one of the premier pitching coaches in baseball with the Brewers in Mike Maddux.  Again, the change in scenery to the American League and to Rogers Centre will be harmful for the flyball hurler.  Ohka deals a fastball, solid-change-up, curve and slider.  Dealing with shoulder issues that sap his velocity, there's just not enough difference between his change-up and fastball to 'fool' major league hitter.  Ohka also has the make-up of a five-inning pitcher as the opposition fairs much better the third and fourth time around against him.  This all equals trouble for Ohka with the 2007 season approaching and I'll be looking to 'go against' him.           

 by Rob Veno, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

It's always a topic of conversation at this time of year. Do teams jockeying for playoff position actually lose in an attempt to garner a playoff seeding that would give them a first round matchup they'd prefer? Well, it seems as if speculation into this conspiracy theory amongst all of us who follow the NBA can now officially begin. I'm going to start the ball rolling in the Western Conference of the Association where both the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets have had mysterious losses the past three days.

Let's begin with the playoff positions right now of both of these teams. LA currently sits in the #6 spot two and a half games ahead of Denver with 11 & 12 respectively yet to play. After Denver's heartbreaking loss to Detroit on Monday night, the Lakers 32 losses were two less than the Nuggets 34. Los Angeles then went out in their Tuesday night game and proceeded to lose at home to a decimated Memphis Grizzlies team. Los Angeles was a 12 point favorite in that one and had a 12 point lead after the first quarter. They subsequently went in the tank and scored a mere 59 points for the remainder of the game. LA shot a miserable 34.4% from the floor against the worst defensive team in the league (Memphis allows a whopping 48.5% for the season), they were out-rebounded 52-48 by a team they had an immense size advantage over and they attempted an inexplicably low 11 free throws. To cap it off, they had a pair of tries at the game's end to either tie or win and they failed (Smush Parker 3 pointer / Kobe Bryant 2 pointer) on both attempts. Do the statistics and the course this game took indicate just an off night or was this a case of a team that didn't want to win? The loss dragged the Lakers loss column to 33, which was just 1 less than Denver's 34. That put LA a half step closer to potentially avoiding the San Antonio Spurs in an opening round playoff series which ultimately would be their goal and the goal of the Denver Nuggets if you believe in the conspiracy theory at this time of year. Playing the #2 seed Phoenix rather than San Antonio would seem to be a preferred matchup for both the Lakers and Nuggets so the battle for becoming #7 could be on.       

Denver, seeing the Lakers creep even closer to them in the loss column was not to be outdone however. As 11.5-point home favorites last night, they lost outright to the Ray Allen-less Seattle Supersonics who were in a back-to-back travel situation after making a 25 point comeback done mostly in the 4th quarter the night before. Not covering an 11.5-point number if you're the Nuggets is one thing, after all the scheduling spot was a bit hectic for them too, but to lose straight up at home could indicate just how badly they want to avoid the Spurs. In the Wednesday night contest, Seattle scored just 1 point over the final 3:25 leaving Denver with the easy task of scoring just 7 over that same game ending stretch to tie or 8 to win. They obviously did neither as they went 1-8 from the floor the rest of the way with three possessions ending on offensive fouls or turnovers. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson combined to take 1 shot down the stretch placing the game in the hands of Linas Kleiza and Nene Hilario before JR Smith's game ending 3 point miss. The stars head scratchingly disappeared last night as Anthony was severely outplayed by Rashard Lewis, Marcus Camby was chewed up by Nick Collison and Iverson scored a ridiculously low 14 points. This could all certainly be construed as fishy by anyone who believes that Denver wants no part of the 6 hole and a date with the Spurs. The Nuggets have been beaten in both of the meetings with San Antonio this season. At home, they lost by 9 as 5 point underdogs and in San Antonio they were +7.5 and lost by 15. Meanwhile, they're fresh off a St. Patrick's Day home pounding of Phoenix 131-107 which likely has them much more confident against the far less physical Suns. Of course, Denver better be careful because if they fall to 8th (only 1 1/2 games ahead of the LA Clippers), they'll end up playing Dallas. 

Los Angeles on the other hand has gone 2-1 versus San Antonio this season but they haven't played them since January 28th and the Spurs are obviously a much different and dangerous team now. The Lakers would probably prefer another shot at Phoenix after being so close to defeating them in the playoffs last year. Right now, they are 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ats against the Suns for the season and have to feel more confident against them as opposed to San Antonio.

All of this does not mean that the Nuggets and the Lakers are tanking games in order to manufacture a desired playoff matchup, but it is something I look out for at this time of the season. The results from these two teams the past couple of nights and the way the way the games played out against inferior opponents is too much for me to ignore. We'll see how the rest of the week goes.

 by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Tiger Woods is the huge favorite to pickup his 5th Green Jacket at the 2007 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. The tourney will begin on April 5th with Phil Mickelson trying to defend his crown. Here's a look at some of the projected favorites for this year's first major of the season:


Tiger Woods (7/5)-Woods has continued his domination of the sport with two wins in four PGA tour starts this season. Despite some attempts to "Tiger Proof" Augusta, Woods has rarely been shutdown at the Masters. He finished 3rd in 2006.

Phil Mickelson (9/1)-Mickelson has traded Green Jackets with Woods since breaking through to win his first Grand Slam event in 2004 at Augusta. Last year, Mickelson rode some momentum to a title after a 13-shot win in the previous week at Atlanta. He has a win already in 2007 at Pebble Beach.

Ernie Ells (14/1)-Els has been in decent form with three Top 20 finishes in four 2007 PGA tour events. He has had some good looks at the Masters with five Top 6 efforts at Augusta this decade but no wins.

Vijay Sing (18/1)-Despite turning 44 last month, Singh is still grinding out victories on the tour. Singh has already won twice in 2007 with victories at Kapalua and Bay Hill. He won a Green Jacket in 2000 and has finished between 5th and 8th at Augusta in each of the last five years.

Retief Goosen (25/1)-The two-time US Open champ has been in the hunt at Augusta with three Top 3 finishes since 2002. He hasn't been in great form in 2007 on the PGA tour with a high finish of 17th in four tourneys.

Jim Furyk (25/1)-Furyk got off to a quick start in 2007 with three Top 6 finishes in his first four events. However, he had to withdraw from the Bay Hill event due to a wrist injury. The former US Open champ hasn't finished in the Top 20 in any of the last three Masters.

Sergio Garcia (30/1)-Garcia is arguably the best player to never have won a major heading into this year's event. He has 12 career Top 10 finishes in the majors but Garcia hasn't been able to close the deal for a major title on pressure filled Sunday afternoons. Garcia has some momentum with Top 5 finishes at Bay Hill and Doral this month.

Henrik Stenson (30/1)-A live sleeper for this year's tourney. Stenson opened some eyes in America with a victory at this year's WGC match play event. He is currently 6th in the world golf rankings ahead of such notables as Singh and Goosen. Stenson missed the cut at last year's Masters and failed to record a Top 10 finish in any major in 2006.

Geoff Ogilvy (35/1)-Ogilvy cashed in on Mickelson's collapse to win the 2006 US Open. He has carried the momentum into this season with a pair of Top 3 finishes. He finished 16th at last year's Masters.

Adam Scott (35/1)-Since a 2nd place finish at Kapalua to begin 2007, Scott hasn't finished in the Top 30 in his other three PGA tour starts. After a 9th place Masters finish in 2002, Scott hasn't been able to crack the Top 20 at Augusta. Still, the 5th ranked player in the world golf rankings is on the verge of breaking through to win his first major.