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    Big 10's NCAA Outlook

    Wednesday, February 14, 2007, 12:48 PM EST [General]

    It's a good news, bad news situation for the Big 10 this season. The good news is that two Big 10 squads can secure No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The bad news is that only one other Big 10 club may reach the field of 65. The Big 10 is loaded at the top with Wisconsin and Ohio State. However, the rest of the league has been pretty average. Indiana is the only other team that is in a secure spot to grab a bid in March. Here's a look at some of the Big 10 squads that are in a fight to get into the dance:

    Michigan State:RPI (38), 18-8 (5-6 Big 10)-The Spartans opened a four-game home stand with a win over Michigan on Tuesday. Michigan State has only lost to Ohio State in East Lansing this season. Still, the upcoming home opponents (Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana) will provide a challenge for the Spartans. Michigan State will close the season with road tilts at Michigan and Wisconsin. Non-conference wins over Texas and BYU are positives. Still, a losing conference record is a possibility. This would leave Michigan State with at least 11 overall losses going into the Big 10 tourney. If the home floor can be protected, State will get in.

    Illinois:RPI (42), 18-9 (6-6 Big 10)-It's been a struggle for the Illini after numerous key personnel losses since the 2005 Final 4 season. The remaining schedule is favorable. The Illini will be favored in their next three games. Illinois will likely be a small underdog in their regular season finale at Iowa. Even without any non-conference wins of note, it will be hard to keep Illinois out of the tourney if they can secure a winning regular season mark in conference play.

    Purdue: RPI (43), 16-9 (5-6 Big 10)-Like Michigan State, Purdue has only lost at home to Ohio State this season. The Boilermakers season could come down to the home contest against Indiana. The remaining slate is favorable, including a pair of games against Northwestern. Victories over Oklahoma and Virginia in non-conference action should help Purdue's argument.

    Michigan: RPI (60), 17-9 (5-6 Big 10)-The Wolverines are suffering another late-season fade. Michigan rolled to a 11-1 start in non-conference action. The Wolverines were in good shape at 16-4 after a 4-1 start in conference action. Now, the Wolverines have dropped five of six to fall back to the middle of the pack in the Big 10. Michigan will have an opportunity to improve their stock down the stretch. The Wolverines will host Indiana, Michigan State, and Ohio State in their final three home games. However, there is no margin for error after a damaging home loss to Iowa already on the slate. Michigan may need to pull an upset at Illinois as well to have a shot. The non-conference wins were over average foes.

    posted by: Fairway Jay, Team Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com


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    Continuing What Was Started By Teddy And Marty

    Wednesday, February 14, 2007, 11:32 AM EST [General]

    Following the themes started this week by colleagues Teddy Covers and Marty Otto, I'm going to combine the two and examine a streaking team from the MAAC. This conference often looks like a conglomeration of teams from obscure east coast towns which for the most part are all of equal mediocre ability. You know what, that generalization is even more appropriate this year as there is no true conference kingpin like Iona was last season or Niagara a couple seasons ago with their senior trio leading the way. Canisius, Siena, Marist, Rider, Loyola-Maryland, Manhattan, let them all play each other twice and then watch the mixed bag of results that ensue. There's been no dominance thus far this season except for one pointspread run that's currently taking place quieter than a moment of silence. The recent spread streaker is, the Fairfield Stags. How about 7-1-1 against the number in their last 9 games? This group of unknowns from Fairfield, CT (about 10-12 minutes from my hometown of Norwalk which by the way is the hometown of basketball great Calvin Murphy, who by the way played for Niagara.....see how these blog entries all connect?) has gone on their profitable ats run without a real common denominator. They've play great FG% defense in some, not so great in others. They've been underdogs in some, favorites in others. They've played well at home in some and on the road in others.

    Much like this MAAC conference this season there's no real rhyme or reason to Fairfield's tear, but nonetheless they're on one. The run has now pushed them up the conference ladder to 9-6 and just 2 games behind league leading Marist. With the new conference tournament format, the Stags have suddenly put themselves in a position where a few more wins coupled with the right losses to the league's upper echelon could give Fairfield a favorable 1,2 or 3 seed come March 2nd. And guess what, this year's tournament is played in their home Arena at Harbor Yard which gives this team great motivation to continue climbing the standings.

    Fairfield features a very methodical offensive style that's led by senior 3 point marksman Mike Van Schaik who's hit 42% of his opportunities this season and is the only real long distance threat on the team. Other than Van Schaik, this a a team in it's truest concept as five players average between 6 and 10 points per game. Four of the next five in the Stags rotation are underclassmen so the streak they're putting together right now combined with their excessive youth indicates they could be strong in the future. Second year head coach Ed Cooley served 10 years as an assistant to Boston College's Al Skinner which obviously explains the teams attributes of half court offense and tough defense (#1 in scoring defense allowing 63.9 ppg which is 3.6 less than second place Siena). They are also first in 3 point FG defense and they're #1 in rebounding defense by a wide margin.

    This little talked about conference (except on the Sportmemo radio show and in its forum) has an even less talked about team and right now they're making an awful lot of money making noise. The next stop for Fairfield is tonight at home vs. Siena. Think Siena likes this travel spot coming through all of their upstate New York snow into Connecticut's current falling of flakes and freezing rain? We'll see how it goes, but let's not forget this ascending team with the conference tourney home floor edge right around the corner.

    posted by: Rob Veno, Senior Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

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    Purple Eagles Flying High

    Wednesday, February 14, 2007, 11:21 AM EST [General]

    The Niagara Purple Eagles are starting to make some noise in the MAAC, and could potentially ruffle some feathers come conference tourney time. Charron Fisher missed the first eight games of the season, but his return marked a turning point for the team. His presence in the lineup lessened the load on the rest of the team, and helped spring a 14-5 run that has them just a game back in the MAAC standings.

    Why is Fisher so important? Well his stats alone speak volumes; at 6'3'' and 230 pounds, Fisher creates mismatch problems for nearly all opponents. Do you match up a guard on him? He's too big and will kill you in the post. Want to put big man on him? Too quick and can shoot from the perimeter. In all, Fisher averages 21.5 points per game and 8 rebounds while shooting 49 percent from the floor and 46 percent from three. But the Eagles are well balanced, and don't have to rely solely on Fisher which makes them even more attractive from a betting standpoint.

    Winners of six of their last seven games they could easily be 9-1 in their current run had a couple of breaks gone their way (the Eagles came up short on two OT games with conference leaders Marist and Loyola).  Solid performances have come from all over the roster of late. Cliff Brown has been a beast inside (avg. 16 ppg and 9 reb on the year), Lorenzo Miles has upped his game after a poor start to the year to average 12, 3 and 4. JR Duffey has developed into an 11 point scorer and solid rebounder, and freshman Tyrone Lewis has become the premier sixth man in the conference.

    Hitting on all cylinders and finally becoming a cohesive unit (remember this team had an eight game handicap to start the season without Fisher), don't be surprised if Niagara makes a run to end the season and winds up with the automatic bid.

    posted by: Marty Otto, Team Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

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    More Streakers

    Wednesday, February 14, 2007, 11:18 AM EST [General]

    Yesterday, I blogged about four streaking teams in college basketball in action on Monday night.  All four teams continued to their ATS runs.  Georgetown improved to 13-1-1 in their last 15 games with a blowout win over Louisville.  Oklahoma State dropped to 1-9 ATS in Big 12 play, getting crushed at Texas.  Pepperdine extended their current run to 2-10 ATS, losing at San Diego by a dozen, while Santa Clara improved to 8-1 ATS in their last nine, ending Gonzaga's 50 game home winning streak with a wire-2-wire 84-73 road victory.  Let's see if we can identify some equally profitable streakers in action this evening.   Old Dominion certainly ranks as a streaking team, with eight consecutive pointspread covers and seven consecutive victories.  The Monarchs stand tied with Hofstra in second place in the Colonial Athletic Conference after their impressive win over conference leader VCU on Saturday, laying eight points to the Pride tonight.  All seven ODU wins during their current streak have come by double digit margins, something they'll need once again tonight, laying eight points to the Pride.  It won't be easy - Hofstra just pulled off the outright upset as six point underdogs at George Mason, with a 6-2 ATS mark as an underdog this season.   Toledo was nothing short of horrible during non-conference play.  Head coach Stan Joplin scheduled them tough, and the results weren't pretty.  The Rockets lost to Kansas, Vanderbilt, Drexel, Iowa, Missouri State, Drake and UTEP, playing only two home games prior to January.  A loss at Oakland University on the day before New Year's left the Rockets sitting at 4-8 heading into their MAC campaign.  But Toledo responded well to that adversity and their tough early season competition prepared them well for conference play.  The Rockets have reeled off a 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS mark in MAC action, laying 12.5 to lowly Eastern Michigan tonight.   Buffalo is on the other end of that spectrum in the MAC.  The Bulls were excellent in non-conference play, 7-3 ATS, punctuated by a near upset of Pitt, a win at Temple and another near upset of Miami-FL.  But that early season success did not carry over into conference action.  Buffalo is just 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight outings, although they did earn the pointspread cover against their opponent tonight, equally bad Bowling Green, in a one point road loss to the Falcons at the start of MAC play in January.   Texas A+M is certainly a streaking team, but their streak has been going on virtually unnoticed for the last two years!  The Aggies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 lined games, dating back to last year.  They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against Big 12 competition.  And they are currently on a 10-4 ATS run at home, where they face Texas Tech tonight, with the early money trickling in on Bobby Knight's Red Raiders, pushing the line from 13.5 down to 12.5 in some locations.  Nobody seems to notice this A+M team, continually disrespected by bettors and the media alike.   It's hard to imagine the linesmakers being unable to catch up with a very public team like North Carolina, but that's been exactly the case.  The young but incredibly deep Tar Heels started off the season on an 0-3 ATS run, including a near upset by Winthrop and an outright loss as eight point favorites at the hands of Gonzaga.  Since that pre-Thanksgiving loss, North Carolina has reeled off a 19-2 SU, 16-3 ATS run, continually performing better than expected both on the road and at home.  Roy Williams' club will get a rare change for revenge tonight, taking on a Virginia Tech team that beat them 94-88 in Blacksburg last month. posted by: Teddy Covers, Senior Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com
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    Jury Is Still Out On Thomas In New York

    Tuesday, February 13, 2007, 10:17 AM EST [General]

    It was a disaster last season in New York. It wasn't supposed to be that way. The Knicks had high hopes with one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game. Larry Brown returned to his hometown after decades of success at numerous stops in college and pro hoops. Brown captured NCAA and NBA crowns along the way. After winning only 33 games in the 2004-05 campaign, New York was in desperate need of a turnaround. Brown was the master of the turnaround throughout his career. At many stops in the NBA, Brown had quickly turned around franchises that were down. The ultimate improvement was always evident at each job. Why would the Knicks be any different? As it turned out, the New York Knicks were a complete mess. New York had a roster of similar players who all needed the basketball to be effective. There was no chemistry for this squad. After taking the Pistons to a championship level, Brown had a group of individuals that did not buy into the team concept. For the first time in his legendary career, Brown didn't have an answer. The Knicks were even worse in 2005-06. New York dropped 59 games with only 23 victories. Brown's return home would end on a sour note. GM Isiah Thomas dumped Brown after one season. Thomas, facing mounting criticism for his personnel moves as the GM, decided to return to the bench to assume the coaching duties. He had coached the Indiana Pacers for three seasons but failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs. So, the 2006-07 season figured to be a make or break season for the tenure of Isiah Thomas in New York.

    New York figured to be an improved squad this season. After all, it is hard to do much worse than a 23-59 season in the NBA. With only two games remaining before the All-Star break, New York is only a victory shy of last season's win total. New York is in the playoff race but the Knicks are currently three games out of the final playoff bid in the East. The improvement has been modest and gradual. New York started the season with a 9-17 mark over their first 26 games. The 26th game marked a little bit of a turning point for the Knicks. New York was involved in a ugly brawl at Madison Square Garden against the Denver Nuggets in the final minute of a 123-100 blowout defeat. Since that loss, the Knicks have played winning basketball with a 13-12 record. From a wagering aspect, New York is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming into tonight's contest against the Los Angeles Lakers. The improvement has been led by Center Eddy Curry. He is now the focal point of the New York squad. Curry is responding with a career season with an average of 20 points per game. After relying on perimeter players last season, the Knicks are able to compete at a higher level with a more balanced attack. 2nd-year forward David Lee has brought some toughness to this squad on the inside as well. Lee is averaging 11 points and rebounds per contest for New York. The Knicks still have several options in the backcourt with Jamal Crawford and Stephon Marbury leading the perimeter game for New York.

    Even with the improvement, the jury is probably still out on Thomas. Owner James Dolan reportedly gave Thomas a vote of confidence last week. However, this kind of statement doesn't seem to carry much weight with 31 games left to play. New York is still well below .500 in a mediocre Eastern Conference. The improvement will still likely leave New York out of the playoffs. This may be the ultimate deciding factor for the fate of Thomas in New York. Regardless of the outcome, the Knicks will continue to be a soap opera in the Big Apple.

    posted by: David Jones, Team Handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

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