by Sonny Palermo, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

At the beginning of last week Tim mentioned on the radio show that I was on a nice run in the NBA, and had won four out of the last five weeks. I won again last week, despite getting screwed by Phoenix with another half point Q1 loss, and a blown Q4 lead by Houston.

Still, I managed to grind out another week of profit, which I view as solid "training camp" for the upcoming baseball season, when it is REALLY important to grind out weekly profits using handicapping knowledge, patience, and sound money management principles (more on MLB play in my next blog, which should be posted right after the long-promised and now believed to be imaginary NBA and OT blog I have been working on.)

But the best thing to come of last week was not the now-higher digits I found in my bank account come Monday morning - the best part of it did not come from a win, but from a loss.

A couple of weeks ago I did a post-fight column, in which I explained how I always look at a sporting event with two eyes, two minds - one set on the game (and wager) at hand, the other searching for an edge I can use in an upcoming event. And while watching a couple NBA games this past week I spotted something that I thought I could use in the future, and had it confirmed when I watched the same team two days later.

Football may be King, as they say, but KNOWLEDGE is POWER.

Now, it's only a matter of time before the playoffs begin, the real season, when you can remove angles such as a team's possible lack of interest and focus, and I plan to use this knowledge to pad the bank account a bit more in the post season.

During the playoffs I won't wager on games on the almost daily basis I have in the NBA over the course of the second half of the season. I'll have a couple of single game plays, and at least one series wager.

The reason for this is two-fold:

1) my style of capping does not lend itself to playoffs

and

2) it is time to do battle with the Beast - major league baseball; and I do not like a divided focus when battling the numbers - I hone in on beating one sport a time. ESPECIALLY when the opponent is baseball. If Hitler hadn't divided his focus and tried to win on too many fronts he may have gone on to win the war (in which case we would have had to nuke his retarded ass at some point in the future.)

Like the post season in college football, I won't have a lot of plays, but like the post season there I have the tools to win again in the NBA.

There is precious, few time left - ride along with me as I continue to finish strong in the pro hoops . . .

 by Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

While Bill Murray had a memorable line about "a Cinderella story" at the Masters in the movie "Caddyshack", the tournament hasn't produced too many underdog victors over the years. Other majors can routinely produce some obscure champions like Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel. Of course, the other three Grand Slam events are played on different courses on a yearly basis. The Masters is the only major that is played on the same course every year. The layout of Augusta National has more often than not led to the cream of the crop rising to the top on Sunday afternoon. Legends Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win ten Green Jackets by overpowering foes who could not match the big drives from Jack and Arnie at Augusta. The combination of power and skill is still producing champions two decades after Nicklaus won his last Masters title.

Golf's current "Big 5" of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Ernie Ells, and Retief Goosen have been all over the Masters leader board in this decade. Woods, Mickelson, and Singh have combined to win six of the seven Masters titles since 2000. While some no-names typically pop up on Masters leader boards on Thursday and Friday, they usually disappear by the back 9 of Saturday's 3rd round. It is at about this time every year when golf's best usually make a charge to the top of the leader board. When 72 holes are completed at Augusta, the "Cinderella" golfers from Thursday and Friday are absent from the final leader board. The "Big 5" have produced some solid and consistent results since 2000:

Woods-3 Wins,5 Top 5's
Mickelson-2 Wins, 7 Top 10's
Singh-1 Win, 6 Top 10's
Ells-5 Top 10's
Goosen- 3 Top 5's

So, if you are looking for a long shot to back this week, you might not get much bang for the buck. The remaining three Grand Slam events will likely provide some better opportunities to find some live underdogs. The Masters is the ultimate tournament for golf's best of the best to shine.

by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

The St Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros finished 1-2 in the NL Central standings last year. They finished 1-2 in the NL Central in 2005. They finished 1-2 in the NL Central in 2004. They finished 2-3 in the NL Central in 2003, but were 1-2 in the division back in 2002. In short, these two teams have dominated this division for the last five years, with only the Cubs 2003 division title to show for the rest of the teams.

This year, I expect the division to finally see a reversal. The bottom four teams in the division - Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Chicago and Cincinnati - are all improved from where they were a year ago. Meanwhile, both the Astros and the Cardinals have taken a step back. Today, I'll look at the weaknesses on the Houston roster, and as the week progresses, I'll break down the fortunes of the other five contenders in the NL Central.

Brad Lidge blew his first save of the new season last night, while Houston struggled mightily on offense, unable to get anything even resembling a clutch hit. Their sparkplug at the top of the order, Willie Taveras, plays for the Rockies these days, leaving 41 year old Craig Biggio, in his final season before retirement, as the only leadoff hitter on the roster.

In fact, all of the Astros key bats -- Morgan Ensberg, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman - are all on the wrong side of 30. Houston finished 25th out of 30 teams in the majors in runs scored last year. This aging, slow lineup doesn't look like it's likely to significantly improve upon those numbers.

The Astros starting pitching is a mess as well. Roger Clemens hasn't announced whether he'll return to the field yet, and if he does, it won't be for several months and it might not be in Houston. While Roy Oswalt is a dominant #1, their #2 starter, Jason Jennings, won only nine games for the lowly Rockies last year. It's surely worth noting that Jennings has an 0-3 record with a 10.47 ERA in three previous starts at Minute Maid Park.

40 year old Woody Williams is the #3 starter. Wildly inconsistent Wandy Rodrigues, with an ERA over 5.50 and a WHIP of over 1.50 in his two big league seasons will be responsible for the #4 spot. 29 year old rookie Chris Sampson is penciled in as the #5 starter. This is not a dominant rotation, plain and simple.

Brad Lidge hasn't been the same pitcher since allowing Albert Pujols to eat him alive in the 2005 NLCS. and with the bullpen problems, we're looking at an Astros team that is weaker than average both on the mound and at the plate, a recipe for a losing season. Lidge had an ERA over 5.00, allowing 36 walks and ten dingers while blowing six saves and taking five losses last year. As last night's blown save clearly indicates, he's not an elite level closer. Chad Qualls gave up the winning home run in extra innings last night. Middle relievers like Dave Borkowski and Rick White don't inspire much confidence.

Let's not forget that Houston won only 82 regular season games last year to finish second in the division. It's not like this team is falling off from 90 or 100 win seasons - if this club declines in '07, as I expect they will, we're talking about sub .500 seasons and lots of profit for bettors betting against them....

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 30th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


San Francisco Giants-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-76
2005-75
2004-91

3-year average: 81  

Lineup-The Giants have a veteran group of bats in their lineup. Here's a look:

C-Bengie Molina(32): Molina hit 19 homers in just 117 games last season in Toronto.

1B-Rich Aurilia(35): Aurilia returns to the Giants for the first time since 2003. He hit 23 homers in 122 games in 2006 for the Reds.

2B-Ray Durham(35): Durham had a career-best 93 RBI's in 2006 despite missing 25 games. A solid bat at second base.

SS-Omar Vizquel(39): Vizquel is still a productive hitter as he hit .295 in 2006 with 10 triples.

3B-Pedro Feliz(31): Feliz had a career-high 98 RBI's last season. He has had at least 20 HR's and 30 doubles in each of the last three seasons.

LF-Barry Bonds(42): After playing in only 14 games in 2005, Bonds hit 26 homers in 130 games in 2006 to move within 22 homers of Henry Aaron. Bonds provides a domino effect for the lineup with his power and his ability to draw walks.  

CF-Dave Roberts(34): The Giants are hoping the speed of Roberts will bring a new dimension to the lineup. In his last two years in San Diego, he stole 120 bases with 23 triples.    

RF-Randy Winn(32): Winn is a solid line drive bat in right field for the Giants.   


Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): Even with Bonds in the lineup for most of the year, the Giants only finished 10th in the NL in runs scored a year ago. With all of the everyday players past the age of 30, San Francisco will be hard pressed to make an improvement in 2007. While all of these hitters are capable performers, they have already played their best baseball. Also, age and injuries will certainly come into play for this team over a long 162-game campaign. Look for the Giants to be in the bottom half of NL offenses again in 2007.    

Starting rotation-Barry Zito is on board as the new staff ace.

LHP-Barry Zito(28): Since posting a 47-17 record in his first three big league campaigns, Zito has only been slightly above .500 in the last four years with a 55-46 record. He will be counted on after the departure of Jason Schmidt.  

RHP-Matt Cain(22): Cain has some nasty stuff as the number two starter. He came on after last season's All-Star break to post a 3.26 E.R.A. in 15 starts.

LHP-Noah Lowry(26): After a posting a 3.80 E.R.A. in his first two seasons, Lowry struggled to a 4.75 E.R.A. in 2006. He must have a rebound year in 2007 if the Giants are going to contend.

RHP-Matt Morris(32): After winning 79 games in his last five seasons in St. Louis, Morris might be a shot pitcher after posting a five E.R.A. in his first year with the Giants.    

RHP-Russ Ortiz(32): The Giants are hoping that Ortiz can recapture some past magic in his return to San Francisco. After being a big winner with the Giants and Braves, Ortiz has posted a record of 5-19 over the last two seasons with an E.R.A. of over seven.    


Overall rotation outlook: Five years ago, this staff would have had three of the top arms in baseball with Zito, Morris, and Ortiz. Five years later, this trio isn't quite the same. While Zito is still an elite pitcher, his E.R.A. of 4.05 since 2004 isn't overwhelming. Zito and Cain should be fine at the top of the rotation but spots 3-5 are pretty shaky. It is a reach to expect Morris and Ortiz to approach their old forms. Look for the Giants to have a middle of the pack NL starting staff in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Giants have a decent, if not outstanding, bullpen.

Setup relief-RHP Kevin Correia(26) posted a solid 3.49 E.R.A. in 2006. LHP Steve Kline(34) has been a quality lefty specialist for several seasons. LHP Brad Hennessey(27) is versatile with his ability to relieve or start.  

Closer-RHP Armando Benitez(34): While Benitez has compiled 280 saves, he is no longer as dominant as he used to be. He blew 8 of 25 save chances in 2006.

Overall pitching outlook: The Giants were 8th in the NL in runs allowed in 2006. While Zito is a few years younger than Schmidt, the performance level of the two pitchers should be pretty similar in 2007. Cain should only get better as he continues to harness his stuff. However, there aren't enough real positives for the rest of the pitching staff. The back of the rotation is shaky and there are some minor depth concerns in the pen. Look for the Giants to be in the middle of NL pitching staffs again in 2007.          

Final recap and recommendation: The Giants have tried to win with a veteran team since 2005. After two losing seasons, San Francisco will try again to make one last push with Barry Bonds and a lineup of players over the age of 30. While the Giants have a group of vets with some solid track records, it is hard to expect this team to do severe offensive damage in 2007. The pitching also appears to be average heading into this campaign. To sum it up, San Francisco doesn't have enough of an upside to make significant improvement in 2007.             

UNDER 80 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star

 by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 29th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


San Diego Padres-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-88
2005-82
2004-87

3-year average: 86  

Lineup-A lack of power is a concern for the Padres in 2007. Here's a look:

C-Josh Bard(29): Bard was a surprise offensive force in 93 games for San Diego last season with a .338 average and some occasional pop with 9 HR's.

1B-Adrian Gonzalez(24): Gonzalez is a young bat to build around as he pounded 24 HR's in 2006.

2B-Marcus Giles(28): Giles average has slipped in each of the last three seasons since he hit .316 in 2003. While he will get to play with his brother Brian in San Diego, Giles could be hard pressed to rebound offensively with half of his games coming in arguably the most difficult hitting park in the majors.  

SS-Khalil Greene(27): Greene has hit 15 HR's in each of the last three seasons. However, he has been slowed by some nagging injuries as Greene has missed 105 games since 2004.

3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff(25): The highly touted prospect has only 16 games of major league experience as he gets a chance to be the Padres 3B in 2007.

LF-Termel Sledge(30): Sledge has played in only 58 games over the last two seasons after hitting 15 homers as a rookie in Montreal in 2004.  

CF-Mike Cameron(34): Cameron has some nice speed and pop as a CF. In 2006, he hit more than 20 HR's with more than 20 stolen bases for the 5th time in his career.   

RF-Brian Giles(36): Even though his power numbers have slipped since joining the Padres, Giles is still highly productive as a hitter. He has drawn over 100 walks in a season in five of the last seven years.  

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The Padres were 13th in the NL in runs scored in 2006. These numbers are a little skewed by the difficulty of scoring runs at Petco Park. San Diego had the NL's 4th best road offense in 2006. The Padres do lack a dominant power bat in the order. They also don't have a lot of high average bats. However, there are some quality line-drive hitters as evidenced by the road performance in 2006. San Diego will likely be near the bottom in the NL runs scored again in 2007 but the offense will be able to do enough to win in support of an outstanding pitching staff.   

Starting rotation-The Padres have a good mix of strong young arms and proven vets in their rotation for 2007.

RHP-Jake Peavy(25): After posting an E.R.A. of under three in 2004-05, Peavy wasn't quite as effective in 2006 with a 4.09 E.R.A. Still, he is a dominant number one for the Padres to build around in the years to come.

RHP-Chris Young(27): Young had an outstanding first season in San Diego with a 3.46 E.R.A. in 2006. A nice number two to compliment Peavy.

RHP-Greg Maddux(41): After posting an E.R.A. of over four in two and a half seasons with the Cubs, Maddux came to life in 12 starts for the Dodgers by posting a 3.36 E.R.A. He should be able to thrive in his starts at Petco Park this season.  

RHP-Clay Hensley(27): A quality young arm at the back of the rotation, Hensley has a fine career E.R.A. of 3.30 in two big league campaigns.   

LHP-David Wells(43): Wells helped San Diego down the stretch last year with a 3.49 in five starts after coming over from Boston. He was effective in his prior stint with the Padres in 2004 with a 3.73 E.R.A.   


Overall rotation outlook: The Padres are well suited for another playoff run with this deep rotation. Peavy and Young form an outstanding duo at the top of this staff. Even past the age of 40, Maddux and Wells are still able to work effectively. San Diego will have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.      

Bullpen-The Padres have a good bullpen to support the starting arms.

Setup relief-RHP Scott Linebrink(30) has been one of the better NL setup relievers in recent seasons. RHP Cla Meredith(23) was untouchable in 2006. He posted a 1.07 E.R.A. and allowed only 30 hits in 50.2 innings of work. RHP Scott Cassidy(31) is another quality bullpen arm as he posted a 2.53 E.R.A. last season.    

Closer-RHP Trevor Hoffman(39): Hoffman shows no signs of slowing down after posting his third straight season of more than 40 saves in 2006. He only needs 18 saves this year to reach the 500 mark in his career.

Overall pitching outlook: The Padres easily allowed the fewest runs in the NL in 2006. The 2007 season should result in some similar results. San Diego has plenty of quality arms in the starting staff as well in the bullpen. The overall staff has an ideal mix of strong young arms and proven veterans who still have something left in the tank. The Padres are poised to have the NL's best pitching unit again in 2007.        

Final recap and recommendation: The Padres have learned how to win with consecutive playoff appearances heading into the 2007 campaign. While a third straight playoff trip might be out of reach, San Diego will deliver another winning season this year. Even with an offense that won't overpower too many foes in 2007, the Padres won't have to score too much behind the league's best pitching staff. The arms will carry San Diego to more wins than losses this season as the Padres win at least 84 contests in 2007.            

OVER 83 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star