by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Here is what I wrote two weeks ago about the eventual NCAA champion:

"Cinderella's have reached the championship game. Florida (in 2000) and Indiana (in 2002) stand out as two teams that were not among the top 16 seeds in the tournament. But those Cinderella's have been unable to seal the deal - the eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3 in every single year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4 seed. You'll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed. 14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds, although the Gators cut down the nets as a #3 seed last year.

"To earn that type of a seed, the eventual champion must have been an elite level team all year. None of the last nine champions had more than seven regular season losses. The hidden factor behind those numbers, is, of course, road success - each eventual champ was .500 or better on the road heading into the tournament season.

"Each of the past nine champions was from one of the six 'major' conferences. The mid-majors measure success with Sweet 16 berths, not Final Four trips, despite George Mason's amazing run last March. We've seen Louisville and Marquette make it to the Final Four from Conference USA (both teams are now in the Big East), and Utah make the championship game from the WAC (at the time; now they are in the Mountain West), but those are clearly the exceptions, not the rule.

"Basically, if a team is not from the Big East, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC or PAC-10, they aren't facing enough tough competition on a nightly basis to get them ready for an extended tournament run. Sorry Memphis, Butler, Nevada, Southern Illinois and Gonzaga - you're not going to make my list.

"Using just the seven losses, and major conference criteria alone, we can narrow the list of potential NCAA tournament winners down to the following group of 13 teams: North Carolina, Maryland, Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M, UCLA, Washington St, Oregon and Florida. I'll wager dollars to donuts that the 2006 champion is one of these teams.

"Notre Dame gets bounced from that list because of their sub .500 road record, the only team among the group listed yesterday that finished the regular season with a losing mark away from home. Each of the last nine champs was .500 or better on the road heading into the tournament.

"Defensive acumen eliminates other potential candidates as well. Again, good defense isn't enough - the champ must be great defensively, both in transition and in the halfcourt. The best stat to measure defensive acumen is defensive field goal percentage allowed. UCLA and Oregon were the only teams from the above group not to finish in the top 100 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. The Ducks, in fact, didn't finish among the nation's Top 200 teams. We'll bounce them from contention as a result, leaving us with ten contenders remaining.

"Maryland gets bounced for their likely seeding. While the Terps have come on strong during the last month, barring a run to the ACC title, Maryland is not going to be any higher than a #4 seed. Again, history clearly shows that only the top seeds merit serious consideration. The eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3 in every year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4 seed. You'll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed. 14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds.

"Kansas, North Carolina, Georgetown and Florida all rank in the top dozen teams in the nation in rebounding margin. Pitt ranks in the Top 25, while Wisconsin, Texas A+M and Ohio State all make the Top 50. Rebounding margin is a solid core statistic to measure how strong a team is in the paint. Inside/Outside balance is key to making a run in March - teams that don't control the paint don't win national championships. This is where we bounce Washington State, who finished the season ranked 246th in the nation in rebounding margin, getting outboarded by more than two rebounds per game.

"From assist to turnover data, we can eliminate Georgetown and Wisconsin, the only two teams with less than 2:1 assist to turnover ratios from their primary ballhandlers. Great guard play is an absolute essential for winning the tournament.

"Our list is down to six: North Carolina, Ohio St, Kansas, Texas A+M, Pitt and Florida." I settled on the Gators as my choice to cut down the nets for the second consecutive year.

My broader list of 13 potential champions looks pretty good: "North Carolina, Maryland, Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M, UCLA, Washington St, Oregon and Florida. I'll wager dollars to donuts that the 2006 champion is one of these teams." Nine of those 13 teams won two games this past weekend, moving on to the Sweet 16. Against the spread, those 13 teams showed modest profitability, going 14-11 ATS this past weekend.

The 'short' list of the six teams that I felt were most likely to win the title looks pretty good as well. North Carolina, Ohio St, Kansas, Texas A+M, Pitt and Florida are all alive and well in the tournament. Five of them are favored this weekend; three favored by nine points or more, expected by the betting marketplace to have a fairly easy time reaching the Elite Eight.

This is no great surprise. My list of championship contenders largely comprised the best teams in college basketball this year. 11 of the 13 teams on my short list of potential champions ended up as #3 seeds or higher, with Memphis being the only non potential champion among the top dozen seeds in the Big Dance.

In a year where laying the chalk has clearly been the way to go during March Madness (favorites are covering better than 60% of the time through the first two rounds), it's no surprise to see the chalk perform well in straight up fashion as well. Whether the tournament chalk continues their stellar run this weekend remains to be seen....

Discuss, debate, or disagree with this or any topic in the Sportsmemo posting forum