by Sonny Palermo, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

When I watch sports I do so with a dual mind set. One part of me is watching the game with an interest in how my money is doing on my current wager, the other part is thinking of the future, searching for an edge, something I can use to my advantage in the next game. This is true of all sports, but most evident, and most easily exploited in boxing.

The reason is simple - team sports have more factors - they're called teammates. Boxing is one on one - if I see a weakness in one fighter I can use it in the future without concern that a teammate can cover for that weakness and thus decrease my advantage in exploiting it.

Part of being a winning handicapper is treating wagering as a constant learning experience - take what you can, from either a loss or a win, and use it to your advantage in future wagers. And this past weekend I tucked away a couple of golden nuggets, a couple pearls of wisdom that I know I will use to bank a few units in upcoming bouts.

Saturday night I attended the Marquez-Barrera fight, hitting 4 of 6 wagers, getting W's with Hopkins, De Leon, Marquez and Over 11' rounds in Hopkins vs. Forbes, missing only with Under 11' rounds in DeLeon and Marquez by KO.

The big money, however, was on the pay play I gave SM customers - Marquez at +150. And he came through as expected, out-slugging Barrera for a unanimous decision.

Excerpts from the write-up I sent in to Sports Memo back in February:

I have always said he (Marquez) could beat either Barrera or Morales, and (now I) finally get a chance to back it up with some cash."

"The edges I give Marquez: he's fresher - career and fight wise; he's a better boxer, a BIGGER banger and a better counterpuncher - his counterpunching ability is AMAZING, his combinations textbook perfect; he's got a bigger heart/better chin - when Pac Man knocked down Barrera, Marco was finished; Pac knocked down Marquez THREE times, in ROUND ONE, and Marquez went on to outbox him for the rest of the way and gain a draw; he's a better banger, and he's hungrier - THIS is his big chance to capture the stardom and respect that has always eluded him."

"It's rare that you get the better boxer, bigger banger, AND better counter puncher, all in one package in a big event such as this. But that is how I see Marquez in this one. I always have. Add hunger to the equation and you have all bases covered. And as always in boxing, you have to follow the money - the winner sets up for a big money rematch with Pac Man, but barring a KO by Barrera (which ain't gonna happen) the bigger money would be with Pac Man/Marquez II, as it is yet undecided, while Pac already KO'd Barrera."

I gave out a 2 unit play on Marquez: 1 unit to win @ the then current odds of +150 (this is the reason I sent the pay play in back in Feb. for a March 17 event - I knew which way the money would come and on fight night, at Greek, Marquez was down to +120). The second unit I put on Marquez by KO. Knowing this would be a tough win, I insured this unit by laying the Under 4' rounds in Baby Joe Mesi's last fight (and that one I shared with everyone in the SM free forum.) When Mesi KO'd Limburger cheese-boy it gave me a free roll on the KO wager.

Marquez looked good in beating Barrera to the punch most of the night. His path now goes one of two ways - rematch with Barrera, or rematch for bigger money with Manny Pacquiao. Early talk has him granting Barrera the immediate rematch, but Marquez's career has been plagued with bad matchmaking decisions and I will go against popular opinion and say he will not make another money mistake, and will go after the larger purse with Pac Man. If he loses to Barrera he loses his rematch with Pac Man. Win or lose to Pac Man he can still have a nice payday with Barrera, as Marco also lost to Manny.

BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THIS - I HAVE BOTH OF THOSE ANGLES COVERED!

I already know what the odds will come at, and more importantly where my money is going to go. And why.

As for the rest of the card, I learned something very interesting in the Demetrius Hopkins- Steve Forbes bout. In it, I used Hopkins to win, and the over in the round prop, though I don't think much of him as a fighter. But . . . he is promoted by Oscar DeLaHoya's "Golden Boy Promotions". And Oscar's partner in GBP is another fighter, name of Bernard. That's Bernard, as in dHopkins. Yup, daddy of Demetrius. I knew it would take a KO by Forbes to get a win, and the former contender contestant was not going to get one. So, laying the heavy juice at -280 wasn't really much of a risk. And it was no shock to this often-found-at-ringside observer when Hopkins got his ass kicked and came up with a unanimous decision win. Nor was I surprised when the crown booed Hopkins mercilessly as he lef the ring, while Forbes went to each of the four corners, climbed to the top rope and waved to the crowd, which supported him with loving cheers.

Funny thing about this boxing sport - 20,000 in attendance can all see the fight one way, while only three see it the complete opposite. And those three happen to be the judges. Strange . . .

Boxing - the only sport where you can bet on the winner and still not cash your ticket! No matter, I was on the right fighter this time, as I cashed in with the loser, Hopkins. Because I knew enough to follow the money in this spot. And again, more importantly, I come away with knowledge gained, and a feeling of how to play two upcoming bouts, bouts other than the next Marquez fight.

And for a final thought, the biggest money fight of the year is drawing near - Oscar vs. Pretty Boy Floyd Mayweather.

And after watching Hopkins and son, and Golden Boy, pull a fast one this past weekend, I have to wonder - will Floyd need a KO?

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