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    Down Duke

    Monday, February 12, 2007, 11:48 AM EST [Basketball]

    By Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

    It's been over a decade since Duke has experienced this kind of slump. Sunday's loss to Maryland was the fourth straight defeat for the Blue Devils. Duke is now 5-6 in ACC play. The Blue Devils will actually need some more wins down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament. To say that this season has been unusual for Duke would be a vast understatement.

    Head coach Mike Krzyewski has arguably put together the greatest dynasty in the history of college basketball. While Duke cannot approach the 10 national titles for UCLA under John Wooden, the Blue Devils can still make an argument about having the best run in the history of the game. Duke has dominated in an era that has featured many worthy college basketball programs. UCLA didn't have many elite challengers to deal with in the 60's and 70's. The numbers entering this season for Krzyewski in Durham were staggering:

    Three national championships (1991, 1992, 2001)
    12 National Coach of the Year honors (eight seasons)
    Seven National Players of the Year (nine honors)
    Six National Defensive Players of the Year (nine honors)
    22 NCAA Tournament bids
    21 All-America selections (33 honors)
    10 Final Four appearances (third all-time)
    11 ACC regular season championships
    10 ACC Tournament championships
    680 total victories (267 ACC wins)
    373 weeks ranked among the nation's top 25 teams
    324 weeks ranked among the nation's top 10 teams
    92 weeks ranked number one in the country
    68 NCAA Tournament victories (first all-time)
    38 NBA Draft selections, including 20 in the first round
    14 NBA Lottery picks

    Duke has usually been able to reload instead of rebuild. The Blue Devils were certainly going to miss J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams this season. Williams averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds last season. Redick finished up a huge career at Duke with an average of 27 points per game. Both players went in the top 11 of the NBA draft. This time around, Duke hasn't been able to reload. The Blue Devils lost 46 points per game from these two star players. The offense has floundered this season without its' star duo. Duke is averaging a modest 69 points per game this year. The squad lacks an impact scorer. Junior guard DeMarcus Nelson leads the team in scoring with an average of 14 points per game. The Blue Devils can't get the easy baskets that were commonplace with Redick and Williams.

    Still, it appeared to be business as usual for Duke as the Blue Devils started the season with a 13-1 record. During this run, Duke only scored more than 75 points in just two contests. The defense was outstanding during this stretch. 12 of 14 opponents were held to under 60 points. However, as conference play began, Duke was forced to play higher tempo games. In 11 ACC games, 9 opponents have reached the 60-point mark. Without a potent offense, the Blue Devils have struggled at times to trade scores in these conference affairs. Is Duke potentially on the NCAA bubble?

    Probably not. It will still take a big collapse to leave Duke out of the dance. The Blue Devils have impressive non-conference wins over Air Force, Indiana, Georgetown, and Gonzaga. However, Duke will still need two or three more wins to close out the regular season to completely stop the bubble conversation. Duke will only have two home games in their final six contests. The Blue Devils will host a couple of other ACC bubble teams in Georgia Tech and Maryland. Duke lost to both of these clubs on the road by double figures. With three home conference losses already under their belt, these games will not be automatic W's for Duke. The road slate includes trips to Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina in conference play. Duke will likely be an underdog in each of these matchups. The Blue Devils will also face a difficult situational game with a non-conference outing at Madison Square Garden against St. John's. The Red Storm always get up for this matchup. It is more difficult for Duke to bring a focused effort in this kind of non-conference contest. So, coach K will be facing one of his biggest challenges over the final three weeks of the regular season. While it is unlikely, the NCAA Tournament could have an odd feel if Duke collapses to miss the dance.

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