by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

Last year, I went 3-0 on the opening weekend of Arena Football action. I never lost that initial momentum, finishing the season with a 31-16 record. That 66% mark was good enough to earn my second consecutive #1 ranking for Arena Football at the Sports Monitor in Oklahoma City.

This year, the stakes are higher. Arena Football has begun their push into the betting public's consciousness, thanks to a new TV deal with ABC/ESPN. With national TV games every week along with regular coverage on both Sportscenter and ESPN.com, the fan base (and betting base) for this league is only going to grow. Meanwhile, my client list for Arena Football has skyrocketed. For the last three seasons, a few clients have been interested in the sport; made some profits and came back for more the following season. But this year, thanks to that track record of success, there are a lot more new clients trying out my Arena Football service for the first time. I don't want to disappoint them. And Week 1 was not a disappointment by any stretch of the imagination. I picked three games and came away with three winners, despite some significant line moves working against me. The fun started on Friday Night as Orlando traveled to Tampa Bay to continue their 'War on I-4' in-state rivalry. Here's some of what I wrote about that game:

"It's not hard to make a case for Unders during the first week of the Arena Football season. Last year, we saw the opening week produce seven Unders and only two Overs. Looking at a broader statistical database, using results from the last four seasons, the opening week remains the lowest scoring week of the season. In the last four years, Week 1 scoring averages right around 93 points per game, a full eight points lower than the average for the rest of the season (101 points per game). "Given this historical reference point, betting tonight's Tampa Bay - Orlando game Under the total makes perfect sense...... Expect at least one of these two offenses to struggle mightily in this meeting, just like what happened the last time they hooked up, a 52-13 final that went 40 points Under the total last April."

Unders went 5-4 in Week 1 this year, again producing a profit for those who bet them blindly. While overall scoring was up (more than 101 ppg in Week 1), Tampa Bay was not one of those teams that benefited from the overall uptick. New quarterback John Kaleo struggled, as the Storm were held to just four touchdown drives on their ten possessions. Throw in an awful evening from kicker Bill Gramatica (just 1-3 on field goals; 0-4 on extra points), and the Under here was never in doubt.

"The receiving trio of Derek Lee, Chris Jackson and Bergeron were instrumental in Georgia's run to Arena Bowl XIX. On paper, it's the best receiving trio in the league, and we can expect Georgia to have significantly offensive success early on, with their receiving corps reunited once again..... Betting the better team in a game where a straight up win should equal a pointspread cover is an easy choice to make."

After a disappointing performance down the stretch last year, culminating in an early exit from the playoffs, I ranked the Force as the second best team in the AFL coming into the season. Arizona, on the other hand, was mediocre last year and I expect them to be mediocre at best in 2007. Georgia jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, putting up touchdowns on their first six drives of the game. Bergeron, Jackson and Lee combined for 24 catches and 330 receiving yards, as the Force averaged a league high 10.5 yards per play. Things got a bit dicey in the fourth quarter when Arizona came charging back, but the Rattlers were never able to get the lead, and Georgia won by four, cashing tickets for everybody despite a four point line move against us.

"Las Vegas is the worst team in the AFL coming into the season, potentially one of the worst teams in AFL history. The Gladiators entered training camp with only two players that were on the roster at the end of last year, the least experienced team in the AFL. Throw in a new head coach (Danton Barto), a new GM and an entirely new staff and inexperience runs rampant both on the field and in the locker room. "Last year was a disaster for Vegas, as they finished with a dreadful -21 turnover ratio. The Gladiators managed to win the turnover battle only once in their 16 games! Can NFL retread Shaun King be a difference maker at quarterback? I wouldn't bet on it..... It's not easy to lay double digits in the AFL, but when Vegas starts losing repeatedly by three or four touchdowns, this price might look cheap in retrospect."

The Arena Football League is an offensive league. The best teams are the ones with dynamic offenses, scoring touchdowns on nearly every possession. So, the worst teams in the AFL (the best ones to bet against), are the league's weakest offensive teams. Las Vegas dismissed their entire coaching and GM staff following last year's awful season, beginning the new year with a completely new team on both sides of the football. The Gladiators signed top notch receiver Etu Molden the week before the season started, but this offense, on paper looked positively inept, as NFL veteran quarterback Shaun King prepped for his first AFL start. The Gladiators fell behind 26-0 by midway through the second quarter, and were never able to rally to make the game close, losing by 21; giving us our third wire-2-wire winner for the weekend.

I can't guarantee that every weekend will go as smoothly as this past one, but I can guarantee that the AFL lines are among the weakest that the linesmakers put out, giving us excellent opportunities to cash again and again throughout the course of the season. I hope that you'll join me for some AFL profits in the weeks and months to come.