by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 30th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


San Francisco Giants-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-76
2005-75
2004-91

3-year average: 81  

Lineup-The Giants have a veteran group of bats in their lineup. Here's a look:

C-Bengie Molina(32): Molina hit 19 homers in just 117 games last season in Toronto.

1B-Rich Aurilia(35): Aurilia returns to the Giants for the first time since 2003. He hit 23 homers in 122 games in 2006 for the Reds.

2B-Ray Durham(35): Durham had a career-best 93 RBI's in 2006 despite missing 25 games. A solid bat at second base.

SS-Omar Vizquel(39): Vizquel is still a productive hitter as he hit .295 in 2006 with 10 triples.

3B-Pedro Feliz(31): Feliz had a career-high 98 RBI's last season. He has had at least 20 HR's and 30 doubles in each of the last three seasons.

LF-Barry Bonds(42): After playing in only 14 games in 2005, Bonds hit 26 homers in 130 games in 2006 to move within 22 homers of Henry Aaron. Bonds provides a domino effect for the lineup with his power and his ability to draw walks.  

CF-Dave Roberts(34): The Giants are hoping the speed of Roberts will bring a new dimension to the lineup. In his last two years in San Diego, he stole 120 bases with 23 triples.    

RF-Randy Winn(32): Winn is a solid line drive bat in right field for the Giants.   


Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): Even with Bonds in the lineup for most of the year, the Giants only finished 10th in the NL in runs scored a year ago. With all of the everyday players past the age of 30, San Francisco will be hard pressed to make an improvement in 2007. While all of these hitters are capable performers, they have already played their best baseball. Also, age and injuries will certainly come into play for this team over a long 162-game campaign. Look for the Giants to be in the bottom half of NL offenses again in 2007.    

Starting rotation-Barry Zito is on board as the new staff ace.

LHP-Barry Zito(28): Since posting a 47-17 record in his first three big league campaigns, Zito has only been slightly above .500 in the last four years with a 55-46 record. He will be counted on after the departure of Jason Schmidt.  

RHP-Matt Cain(22): Cain has some nasty stuff as the number two starter. He came on after last season's All-Star break to post a 3.26 E.R.A. in 15 starts.

LHP-Noah Lowry(26): After a posting a 3.80 E.R.A. in his first two seasons, Lowry struggled to a 4.75 E.R.A. in 2006. He must have a rebound year in 2007 if the Giants are going to contend.

RHP-Matt Morris(32): After winning 79 games in his last five seasons in St. Louis, Morris might be a shot pitcher after posting a five E.R.A. in his first year with the Giants.    

RHP-Russ Ortiz(32): The Giants are hoping that Ortiz can recapture some past magic in his return to San Francisco. After being a big winner with the Giants and Braves, Ortiz has posted a record of 5-19 over the last two seasons with an E.R.A. of over seven.    


Overall rotation outlook: Five years ago, this staff would have had three of the top arms in baseball with Zito, Morris, and Ortiz. Five years later, this trio isn't quite the same. While Zito is still an elite pitcher, his E.R.A. of 4.05 since 2004 isn't overwhelming. Zito and Cain should be fine at the top of the rotation but spots 3-5 are pretty shaky. It is a reach to expect Morris and Ortiz to approach their old forms. Look for the Giants to have a middle of the pack NL starting staff in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Giants have a decent, if not outstanding, bullpen.

Setup relief-RHP Kevin Correia(26) posted a solid 3.49 E.R.A. in 2006. LHP Steve Kline(34) has been a quality lefty specialist for several seasons. LHP Brad Hennessey(27) is versatile with his ability to relieve or start.  

Closer-RHP Armando Benitez(34): While Benitez has compiled 280 saves, he is no longer as dominant as he used to be. He blew 8 of 25 save chances in 2006.

Overall pitching outlook: The Giants were 8th in the NL in runs allowed in 2006. While Zito is a few years younger than Schmidt, the performance level of the two pitchers should be pretty similar in 2007. Cain should only get better as he continues to harness his stuff. However, there aren't enough real positives for the rest of the pitching staff. The back of the rotation is shaky and there are some minor depth concerns in the pen. Look for the Giants to be in the middle of NL pitching staffs again in 2007.          

Final recap and recommendation: The Giants have tried to win with a veteran team since 2005. After two losing seasons, San Francisco will try again to make one last push with Barry Bonds and a lineup of players over the age of 30. While the Giants have a group of vets with some solid track records, it is hard to expect this team to do severe offensive damage in 2007. The pitching also appears to be average heading into this campaign. To sum it up, San Francisco doesn't have enough of an upside to make significant improvement in 2007.             

UNDER 80 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star