by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com
This
is the 30th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
San Francisco Giants-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-76
2005-75
2004-91
3-year average: 81
Lineup-The Giants have a veteran group of bats in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Bengie Molina(32): Molina hit 19 homers in just 117 games last season in Toronto.
1B-Rich Aurilia(35): Aurilia returns to the Giants for the first time
since 2003. He hit 23 homers in 122 games in 2006 for the Reds.
2B-Ray Durham(35): Durham had a career-best 93 RBI's in 2006 despite missing 25 games. A solid bat at second base.
SS-Omar Vizquel(39): Vizquel is still a productive hitter as he hit .295 in 2006 with 10 triples.
3B-Pedro Feliz(31): Feliz had a career-high 98 RBI's last season. He
has had at least 20 HR's and 30 doubles in each of the last three
seasons.
LF-Barry Bonds(42): After playing in only 14 games in 2005, Bonds hit
26 homers in 130 games in 2006 to move within 22 homers of Henry Aaron.
Bonds provides a domino effect for the lineup with his power and his
ability to draw walks.
CF-Dave Roberts(34): The Giants are hoping the speed of Roberts will
bring a new dimension to the lineup. In his last two years in San
Diego, he stole 120 bases with 23 triples.
RF-Randy Winn(32): Winn is a solid line drive bat in right field for the Giants.
Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): Even with Bonds in the lineup for most of the
year, the Giants only finished 10th in the NL in runs scored a year
ago. With all of the everyday players past the age of 30, San Francisco
will be hard pressed to make an improvement in 2007. While all of these
hitters are capable performers, they have already played their best
baseball. Also, age and injuries will certainly come into play for this
team over a long 162-game campaign. Look for the Giants to be in the
bottom half of NL offenses again in 2007.
Starting rotation-Barry Zito is on board as the new staff ace.
LHP-Barry Zito(28): Since posting a 47-17 record in his first three big
league campaigns, Zito has only been slightly above .500 in the last
four years with a 55-46 record. He will be counted on after the
departure of Jason Schmidt.
RHP-Matt Cain(22): Cain has some nasty stuff as the number two starter.
He came on after last season's All-Star break to post a 3.26 E.R.A. in
15 starts.
LHP-Noah Lowry(26): After a posting a 3.80 E.R.A. in his first two
seasons, Lowry struggled to a 4.75 E.R.A. in 2006. He must have a
rebound year in 2007 if the Giants are going to contend.
RHP-Matt Morris(32): After winning 79 games in his last five seasons in
St. Louis, Morris might be a shot pitcher after posting a five E.R.A.
in his first year with the Giants.
RHP-Russ Ortiz(32): The Giants are hoping that Ortiz can recapture some
past magic in his return to San Francisco. After being a big winner
with the Giants and Braves, Ortiz has posted a record of 5-19 over the
last two seasons with an E.R.A. of over seven.
Overall rotation outlook: Five years ago, this staff would have had
three of the top arms in baseball with Zito, Morris, and Ortiz. Five
years later, this trio isn't quite the same. While Zito is still an
elite pitcher, his E.R.A. of 4.05 since 2004 isn't overwhelming. Zito
and Cain should be fine at the top of the rotation but spots 3-5 are
pretty shaky. It is a reach to expect Morris and Ortiz to approach
their old forms. Look for the Giants to have a middle of the pack NL
starting staff in 2007.
Bullpen-The Giants have a decent, if not outstanding, bullpen.
Setup relief-RHP Kevin Correia(26) posted a solid 3.49 E.R.A. in 2006.
LHP Steve Kline(34) has been a quality lefty specialist for several
seasons. LHP Brad Hennessey(27) is versatile with his ability to
relieve or start.
Closer-RHP Armando Benitez(34): While Benitez has compiled 280 saves,
he is no longer as dominant as he used to be. He blew 8 of 25 save
chances in 2006.
Overall pitching outlook: The Giants were 8th in the NL in runs allowed
in 2006. While Zito is a few years younger than Schmidt, the
performance level of the two pitchers should be pretty similar in 2007.
Cain should only get better as he continues to harness his stuff.
However, there aren't enough real positives for the rest of the
pitching staff. The back of the rotation is shaky and there are some
minor depth concerns in the pen. Look for the Giants to be in the
middle of NL pitching staffs again in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Giants have tried to win with a
veteran team since 2005. After two losing seasons, San Francisco will
try again to make one last push with Barry Bonds and a lineup of
players over the age of 30. While the Giants have a group of vets with
some solid track records, it is hard to expect this team to do severe
offensive damage in 2007. The pitching also appears to be average
heading into this campaign. To sum it up, San Francisco doesn't have
enough of an upside to make significant improvement in 2007.
UNDER 80 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star
Send Message
Add Friend