By Fairway Jay, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com
It's
been over a decade since Duke has experienced this kind of slump.
Sunday's loss to Maryland was the fourth straight defeat for the Blue
Devils. Duke is now 5-6 in ACC play. The Blue Devils will actually need
some more wins down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.
To say that this season has been unusual for Duke would be a vast
understatement.
Head coach Mike Krzyewski has arguably put together the greatest
dynasty in the history of college basketball. While Duke cannot
approach the 10 national titles for UCLA under John Wooden, the Blue
Devils can still make an argument about having the best run in the
history of the game. Duke has dominated in an era that has featured
many worthy college basketball programs. UCLA didn't have many elite
challengers to deal with in the 60's and 70's. The numbers entering
this season for Krzyewski in Durham were staggering:
Three national championships (1991, 1992, 2001)
12 National Coach of the Year honors (eight seasons)
Seven National Players of the Year (nine honors)
Six National Defensive Players of the Year (nine honors)
22 NCAA Tournament bids
21 All-America selections (33 honors)
10 Final Four appearances (third all-time)
11 ACC regular season championships
10 ACC Tournament championships
680 total victories (267 ACC wins)
373 weeks ranked among the nation's top 25 teams
324 weeks ranked among the nation's top 10 teams
92 weeks ranked number one in the country
68 NCAA Tournament victories (first all-time)
38 NBA Draft selections, including 20 in the first round
14 NBA Lottery picks
Duke has usually been able to reload instead of rebuild. The Blue
Devils were certainly going to miss J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams
this season. Williams averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds last season.
Redick finished up a huge career at Duke with an average of 27 points
per game. Both players went in the top 11 of the NBA draft. This time
around, Duke hasn't been able to reload. The Blue Devils lost 46 points
per game from these two star players. The offense has floundered this
season without its' star duo. Duke is averaging a modest 69 points per
game this year. The squad lacks an impact scorer. Junior guard DeMarcus
Nelson leads the team in scoring with an average of 14 points per game.
The Blue Devils can't get the easy baskets that were commonplace with
Redick and Williams.
Still, it appeared to be business as usual for Duke as the Blue Devils
started the season with a 13-1 record. During this run, Duke only
scored more than 75 points in just two contests. The defense was
outstanding during this stretch. 12 of 14 opponents were held to under
60 points. However, as conference play began, Duke was forced to play
higher tempo games. In 11 ACC games, 9 opponents have reached the
60-point mark. Without a potent offense, the Blue Devils have struggled
at times to trade scores in these conference affairs. Is Duke
potentially on the NCAA bubble?
Probably not. It will still take a big collapse to leave Duke out of
the dance. The Blue Devils have impressive non-conference wins over Air
Force, Indiana, Georgetown, and Gonzaga. However, Duke will still need
two or three more wins to close out the regular season to completely
stop the bubble conversation. Duke will only have two home games in
their final six contests. The Blue Devils will host a couple of other
ACC bubble teams in Georgia Tech and Maryland. Duke lost to both of
these clubs on the road by double figures. With three home conference
losses already under their belt, these games will not be automatic W's
for Duke. The road slate includes trips to Boston College, Clemson, and
North Carolina in conference play. Duke will likely be an underdog in
each of these matchups. The Blue Devils will also face a difficult
situational game with a non-conference outing at Madison Square Garden
against St. John's. The Red Storm always get up for this matchup. It is
more difficult for Duke to bring a focused effort in this kind of
non-conference contest. So, coach K will be facing one of his biggest
challenges over the final three weeks of the regular season. While it
is unlikely, the NCAA Tournament could have an odd feel if Duke
collapses to miss the dance.