Concentrate and ask again..."What will be the outcome of the Chase?"  I say out loud as I gaze into my Magic 88-Ball.   I know Junior, Montoya, and the other non-Chasers will play roles, hopefully only as spoilers and not destroyers.  Talladega is always unpredictable and racing the Car of Tomorrow there for the first time could change the Chase dramatically.  Mechanical problems, pit road mistakes, and bad luck are the usual suspects the Chasers must overcome.  The Magic 88-Ball is murky, but here's what I see...

 

ON TARGET:   Johnson, Gordon, Stewart

 

Undeniably, these three former Champions are a threat to win every weekend and are the heavy favorites to win the Chase.  They lead almost every statistical category that is tracked, and both Hendrick and Gibbs have strong Car of Tomorrow programs.  Johnson, defending his Championship, enters the Chase with momentum, but his four DNF's are a potential weakness.  Gordon dominated the regular season, but has been experimenting with setups lately.  He will refocus on points racing for his "Drive for Five".   Stewart will press hard to win his final championship for Chevy, but could be his own worst enemy if he forgets his anger management skills.

 

DODGE HARD CHARGERS:   Kenseth, Edwards, Busch (Kurt), Hamlin

 

The Chase is far from being a three man race.  These drivers are licking their chops waiting to win it all by capitalizing on the smallest mistake made by the favorites. Kenseth is the cleanest and most reliable racer in NASCAR.  Count on him to finish every race in the Top 10.   Edwards is the dark horse pick of many NASCAR experts because of his impressive 2005 Chase run.   Busch finally clicked with his crew chief and has the Dodge winning.  Hamlin represents the best in young aggressive talent and isn't intimidated by his teammate.

 

MILLER LITE WEIGHTS:    Busch (Kyle), Truex Jr., Burton, Bowyer

 

These drivers lack the consistency and equipment needed to contend with the favorites.   All have shown moments of brilliance this season, but each has obstacles to overcome.  Busch's emotions and unlikely help from his soon-to-be ex-teammates will do him in.  Truex Jr. has the talent but not the engines, DEI engineering is the weakest in the Chase.  Burton, the veteran without a Championship, drives too clean and too safe to win it.   Bowyer dominated Loudon, but has only three Top 5's.  He'll need a lot more wins to compete.

 

BUDWEISER LONGSHOT:   Harvick

 

Ever since the altercation at Watkins Glen, Harvick has been off his game.   The Daytona 500 and All-Star winner will refocus his passion for 'butt kicking' on the rest of the Chasers and make a serious run for the Cup.

 

2007 SPRINT NEXTEL CUP CHAMPION  

 

The Championship will go to the driver who can consistently maximize points and minimize mistakes during the final 10 races.  With sixteen Top 5's, twenty-two Top 10's, four wins, one DNF, and the highest overall driver rating...Your 2007 Champion will be Jeff Gordon.

My Magic 88-Ball now says clearly...Without a doubt!

 

 

 

 

NASCAR's overwhelming popularity can be traced back to the infamous fist fight between the Allison brothers and Yarborough in the 1979 Daytona 500. This successful combination of racing, fisticuffs, and TV continues today.  Watkins Glen was deemed one of the best races this year, partially due to the helmet-grabbing showdown between Harvick and Montoya.

What's the problem?

Fighting is nothing new in sports.  Athletes in intense competition with high emotions often come to blows.  Isn't that the definition of hockey?   Watching clean cut drivers Kenseth and Gordon, shove on pit road or hearing mild mannered Edwards threaten to "bleed" Stewart is nothing but pure entertainment.  Fans love it, so does NASCAR.  This isn't the problem.  Road Rage, intentionally using the car as a weapon, is the problem.

Psychology says...

NASCAR has to guess if angry drivers are going to just be entertaining, or if they're going to cross the line into Road Rage.  Rather than guessing, NASCAR should use basic psychology.  Most people think when we get angry we "explode."  Actually, this isn't the case.  Psychology teaches us that anger comes from multiple smaller incidents, building up over time, until 'someone' punches a photographer.  As Stewart learned in his anger management class, you have to recognize and stop this build up before you reach your breaking point. 

Racing is full of small incidents. A bump here, a rub there, the next thing you know you are intentionally taking someone out.  Heated rivalries continue across races and even seasons.  All this creates a recipe for driver Road Rage. 

Here's the solution...

It's impossible for NASCAR to police the "build up," so they will have to punish Road Rage incidents swiftly and consistently.

NASCAR set a precedent in 2002, suspending Harvick for one Cup race after aggressive driving in the Truck and Busch series. NASCAR gave Robby his this year.  Any Road Rage incident should lead to a one race suspension.  NASCAR is reluctant to sit drivers because of massive financial consequences to sponsors and owners if their driver misses a race.  NASCAR must not bow to the pressure and send a clear message: If You 'Rage' You 'Watch.'

The backlash from sponsors and owners alone should be enough to keep most drivers in line.  However, NASCAR needs to go one step further.  NASCAR must teach all drivers Anger Management before each season.  This will allow them to police themselves out on the track. Drivers know the mechanics of their cars, they need to learn the mechanics of anger. Small incidents add up to big consequences. Drivers need to identify the tell-tale signs of their own breaking point, rather than rely on NASCAR's guesswork.

Stewart learned Anger Management. Harvick watched a race.  Both still express their anger quite freely, but neither has exploded.  They got it.  Will Robby?  Giving drivers the skills to control their anger is the only way NASCAR can eliminate Road Rage and keep the racing entertaining and safe.

Hey NASCAR! I am happy to consult!

For a sport born out of moonshine, racing at night makes perfect sense! Running under the lights creates a vivid spectacle of flashing colors, flying sparks, and glowing metal in an electrifying atmosphere (literally!). In 1978, NASCAR started night racing with a single race at Bristol. The 2007 Cup schedule includes nine point races run at night (Bristol, California, Darlington, Daytona, Lowe's (2), Phoenix, and Richmond (2)) plus the Budweiser Shootout and the All-Star Challenge.

Ask any NASCAR fan and they will tell you they love night races and here's why...

• Racing under the lights is more exciting, it just is!
• Travel arrangements are easier. Travel on Sunday and no missed work on Monday.
• Rain on Saturday, race on Sunday. No lying to your boss on Monday morning!
• Cheaper. Two days are cheaper than three. Period.
• Cooler on those hot summer days. No temporary "8" tattoos sunburned onto your skin or heat stroke from drinking too much Miller Lite in the sun. (Nod to my sponsor!)
• Setting up the cars for a changing track adds drama.
• No more choosing between NASCAR and football.
• Less "Bushwhacking". Cup drivers are less likely to pull double duty with the shortened weekend, giving those Busch drivers a chance.

So why not add more of a good thing? It's complicated...

• Tracks and local economy lose money with a shorter weekend. We all know NASCAR isn't in the business of losing money.
• West coast vs. East coast time problems. What is prime time? Darlington 2005 finished at 11:30PM EST. Too late.
• Conflicts with local Saturday night short track racing forces hometown fans to choose. Small tracks do lose money when NASCAR is in town.

What to do? NASCAR can afford to add a few more night races but will have to make some adjustments first...

• Have no more than 15 point races at night on the Cup schedule. This will preserve the "special" status night races seem to have.
• Have 3 distinct race times. Day: Green flag drops no later than 12 pm EST. 'Tweeners: Late afternoon start and finish under the lights. Night: Race starts and finishes under the lights.
• Add Night or 'Tweener races at tracks with two races already on the schedule. Atlanta and Texas have lights they are not using. I would highly recommend that Pocono, Dover, Martinsville, and Michigan install them! These tracks already have double the profits, so one shorter weekend won't hurt.
• Night races should be shortened. No more than 400 miles so everyone can be awake for the finish.
• Local short tracks move their races to Friday night or Sunday during NASCAR weekends. Add appearances by NASCAR personalities and even more fans will come.

NASCAR will never go back to moonshine runs every weekend, but there is no denying the draw of Saturday nights. Come on NASCAR, pay attention to your fans! With minor compromises, we can ALL shine on.

 
The NASCAR championship has historically rewarded consistency.   Who knew Kenseth's dominating championship in 2003 would result in NASCAR changing a point system that had been in place and highly regarded for almost 30 years.

The Chase was created by Brian France to inject excitement into the final races and allow NASCAR to better compete with the start of the NFL season.  It was also supposed to make NASCAR more appealing to sports fans who are used to playoffs ending the season and determining the champion.  As a result, NASCAR now has a complicated point system which ultimately does not always result in an exciting Chase.   

The 2007 points system is fine...
The 2007 points system, although confusing and cumbersome to the causal fan, does reward winning.  It creates a potential 25 point difference between first and second place finishers.  In a best case scenario, winners receive 195 points (185 for winning, 5 bonus points for a lap lead and 5 bonus points for leading the most laps) to second place's 170.  Now, the top 12 drivers make the Chase and are seeded by their number of wins in the regular season.   This is a good balance between rewarding consistency and winning. 

 But the Chase is WEAK...
The Chase was "watered down" by expanding it to 12 drivers to protect the crowd favorites (ahem, Jr, Jeff, and Tony).  Add to that, early in the Chase, drivers often play it safe and ride around trying to avoid the mulligan rather than win.  BORING.  The Chase shouldn't ever be boring, it should be intense.  Think of March Madness, you come to win or you go home.  If NASCAR is going to have a playoff do it right.   Someone has to go...each and every race of the Chase.

 Now start the Madness...
In the Chase, the driver with the lowest points total at the end of the race is eliminated from the Chase.  The first driver eliminated finishes the season in 12th place and so on.   The driver with the lowest points in each subsequent race is eliminated until you reach Homestead with only 3 drivers in contention for the championship.   Can you say pressure?  Oh yes!  No more riding around trying to avoid trouble during the Chase.  Our champion will have to get up on that wheel every lap of every race.  The Chasers will have to out-race, out-perform, and out-wit all rivals and have luck on their side all 10 races.  Consistency and winning, sound familiar?

 Everyone understands sudden death...
No more crunching points or cautious racing, just pure excitement.  It will be hard to deal with the disappointment that your driver is out of the Chase whether by bad performance or bad luck.  Those drivers can still hang it all out there using their "trick" setups, gambling on gas, and race for the checkers.    Don't protect them, it's the playoffs baby!  Anything could (and should) happen.  If you survive, then you really have a CHAMPION to be proud of.

NASCAR must do a better job of appealing to new fans to continue its' phenomenal growth.  To GROW, however, they must SHRINK!

SHRINK THE NUMBER OF NETWORKS/COMMERCIALS!
Most fans are introduced to NASCAR primarily through TV coverage.    Having ESPN/ ABC, SPEED, TNT and FOX has created a jumble of TV commentators who don't know the sport and provide no consistency in race coverage.   Many fans don't have cable and the broadcasts are, at times, painful to watch.  I'm a rabid fan and even I can't sit through a broadcast without my Tivo.  How will a new fan do it?   These broadcasts need to be consistent again with commercials side by side with the racing action.

SHRINK TICKET PRICES!
NASCAR needs to help new fans attend a race in person.   The average family has to drop between $500 and $1000 per weekend to attend.  Now you're competing with a vacation!   In order to increase NASCAR's appeal to minorities, families with kids, and the under 25 crowd, they must cut ticket prices and increase one day tickets vs. weekend packages.

SHRINK RACE LENGTH!
Shorten races from 500 miles to 400 miles.  It won't inhibit the flow, strategy, or competition of the races.  Marquee events like Daytona and Bristol should remain 500 miles. Retain the 600 miles at Lowe's to keep those engine builders on their toes.  More fans will watch all 36 races if they don't take all day.

...but then again what do I know, I'm just a SHRINK!