Jr.'s Future

    I promised that I would do a full article on different scenarios of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s future, then I realized that, to list them all, I would have to make an encyclopedia set. I tried to find out what seem to be the most popular theories and rumors, of course this is all speculation, he could just retire! (Relax Jr. fans, it's a joke.)

    Let's begin with the one that has all Earnhardt fans (Sr. and Jr.) saying their bedtime prayers- Jr. leaves his fathers company to drive his fathers #3 for RCR. I guess the #1 question would be- is Richard Childress even willing to bring the #3 out of retirement? I think recent comments point towards no. Retiring the #3 was Richards  tribute to Dale, it showed respect and I don't know if he will ever put it on the track again. Would Richard look at this as something Dale Sr. would have wanted?  What about putting him in the #33? Is Richard even interested in Jr.? Is Jr. even interested? Only time will tell.

    Another scenario that has Jr. fans drooling is that he will break away and start a Nextel team of his own. Although Jr. informed us that he is," just a millionaire", this is feasible, just highly unlikely. Jr. has the contacts and the sponsors to start a team, but does he have the time? Nextel Cup is a whole different story for a team owner. His other teams and commitments aside, what about his personal life? He already is stretching himself. If Jr. owned a Nextel team, would his driving begin to suffer? I believe, if he had the right people around him, he could do this, but they'd have to start now. Money could prove to be a problem, too,  a new team, even with the name, isn't exactly a sure thing and sponsors may shy away. Would Jr. be willing to put a hell of a lot of money up in the beginning? Would others? Only time will tell.

    Now to DEI. In the wishful thinking category, we have Jr. taking over at DEI, not going to happen. I have addressed this possibility before,  I believe it's a bad idea and I don't think that's what Jr. really wants. Jr. really is DEI, though, (the company was built up around him) and he deserves to have a share of it. Does he want to take over? I doubt that. Does he want a fair share in ownership of a dynasty that his father always said would be his legacy to Jr.? Yes. This leads us to the "renewal zone". Will Theresa and Jr. be able to reach an agreement on a new contract? This is the one question that all the speculation hangs on. Unless Jr. announces other plans at the same time he answers this, the answer will either stop the rumors or create a thousand more. I voiced my reservations about the stability of DEI in Critical Condition, and, with the new CEO, I will have to re-evaluate them this year, but I wonder if it might be in Jr.'s best interest to get out while he can.

    And- what about Budweiser? World wide, the most recognized active car is the #8 Budweiser car. We really have no idea what they're going to do. Will they stand behind their driver and the image they have created with him? Will they stand behind the company that made that image possible? So many questions, so little answers.

    With so many factors that can affect the possible outcomes, we really cannot possibly guess the exact way it will end, but I, personally, think he will renew with DEI. Again, only time will tell.

'The Jimmie Factor'

 

The pressure didn't lift at homestead. Well, it may have momentarily, but the real pressure starts now. The "repeat factor" is a constant pressure point for a champion. Fans tend to grade drivers on a, "What have you done for me lately?", scale. This scale puts pressure on drivers every race, but, when you're the champ, this pressure becomes more intense. Sometimes the biggest pressure is from within. With so much to do, so many opinions flying, so little time, how does a Cup Champion stay focused? A few will tell you they couldn't, some will even admit to questioning themselves.  It is a mental game that all drivers deal with, but for a Cup Champion the "repeat factor" is a pressure that rarely ends in victory.

In the history of Cup Series racing, there have been only 9 drivers who have managed to beat the "repeat factor". Buck Baker became the first driver to beat the odds when he won back to back championships in 1956 and 1957. Lee petty, not to be outdone, took the 1958 and 1959 championships to even the score. Joe Weatherly (1962/1963 Cup Champion) and David Pearson (1968/1969 Cup Champion) were also able to accomplish this feat. Then came, "The King". Of course he hadn't been enthroned yet, but he made his mark with back to back Cup Championships in 1971 and 1972. In 1975, Richard Petty became the first driver to capture a second back to back title. Richard had managed to win 4 titles in 5 years. Dale Earnhardt Sr. finally matched this feat in 1994, taking the Cup Championship for the fourth time in five years, but he topped 'The King' by grabbing his third back to back in only 9 years. (1986/1987, 1990/1991, 1993/1994)  In between "The King" and "The Intimidator", one man was able to totally defy odds and accomplish what no other driver has been able to- a "three-peat". Cal Yarborough is the only driver to successfully defend his title 2 years in a row. His back to backs in 1976 and 1977 became history with the third championship in 1978. Two other drivers delivered single back to backs, Darrell Waltrip in 1981/1982 and Jeff Gordon in 1997/1998.

            So, where does this leave Jimmie? I believe this team has a chance, if changes by the sanctioning body don't totally turn them upside down. I am not a Jimmie Johnson fan, but I can't think of one reason to dislike him, at least not without being a hypocrite. He's the perfect "poster boy" for our sport. Most who say they don't like him wind up saying it's because he's, "Gordon's pet". People, do you watch the races? Jimmie Johnson has proven over and over that he is his own driver. He is on fire and so is his crew. If this team can keep it together, I truly believe they will win multiple Cup Championships.

            To Jimmie I can only say- never question yourself. I know this is easier said than done, but you can't expect others to have confidence in you if you don't have it yourself. Keep in mind that other factors that are not in your control can ruin the outcome too. You are your own worst enemy or your own best friend and it all depends on one thing- how you handle the pressure.

 

 

 

As of late, there have been comparisons between Theresa Earnhardt and Howard Hughes. I wonder why her absence at the track is such a big deal, owners don't always attend races. I don't think the fans even care if she's there of not. On the other hand, if Jr. missed a race there'd be a riot. As most owners realize, being on hand at hte race can boost confidence in the team as well as among sponsors, but isn't a requirement. I do question her lack of on hands involvement in DEI as a company. Out of fairness to Theresa, she did lose her husband at the track. Maybe it's just too hard for her, maybe DEI reminds her too much. If this is the case, then she needs to step aside and allow someone else to be the leader, but who? The obvious would be Jr., but, with his own commitments, I wonder if he would be any more hands on than Theresa.

Everyone seems to have an opinion when it comes to this situation, but I believe Larry Mac said it best (NASCAR Preseason Thunder on Speed 1/11/2007) when he commented on Theresa's right to question Jr.'s dedication and focus. After pointing out Theresa's absence, both on and off the track, he noted, "....if you live in a glass house, don't throw stones." What frightens me is that these little cracks in the glass house that is DEI will spread until, like an old windshield it is impossible to fix.

There have been whispers, but nobody wants to say it- DEI is in trouble. For now, money isn't the problem,  communication and structure are, and as most in the business will tell you, one will eventually affect the other. DEI and it's fans can downplay the importance of Michael Waltrip leaving, but it was big. Sure he didn't dominate, but he did win, and Napa leaving with him has been received by some as a statement. Even though he wasn't the golden child, he left a void at DEI that it seems they cannot fill. So this leaves me to wonder if DEI can truly have a future if Jr. and/or Budweiser jump ship. I do not believe that Jr. himself can make or break DEI, but fans and sponsor confidence, both present and future, can.

Most Jr. fans are just that. They don't care who's right or wrong, Jr. can send somebody into the wall for a win and he's "just takin' after Daddy', but let someone do it to Jr. and the comments can't even be printed. They won't care who he races for, as long as he's racing. There are those who say it depends on where he goes, but as I think about all of those living room shrines to him, I doubt they'll abandon him. Which will leave DEI scrambling for public support.

On the subject of sponsors, DEI may be in more trouble than they realize. Napa is a major sponsor with long term intrest, and, as with UPS and Dale Jarrett, they realize that driver recognition equals product recognition. Yes, there are owners who are able to retain sponsors, regardless of the driver. Those teams,  however, have something that DEI needs- confidence in the owners ability to keep their logo up front. As details of Theresa's absence and lack of involvement cotinue to filter out, I can only assume that sponsors will begin to question the stability of DEI. Theresa's public absences coupled with the lack of true leadership at DEI could prove to be it's downfall. For now we can only speculate, but as I look to the past five years, I realize that not only has DEI's dominance abated, but it's teams seem to be in limbo.

I just wanted to say, "God Bless Bobby, his freinds and his family." Bobby Hamilton was one of the few "old school' drivers left and he will be greatly missed.