With the final third of the season in front of us, it's inconceivable how close the race in the Western Conference really is. A win Wednesday night at home over the Suns and the Nuggets will be playing .600 ball for the season - and still a couple of games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

Should the first place Spurs, winners of 10 in a row and alone atop the West, lose their edge for 10 days and lose three out of five games, they could fall into the sixth spot and lose homecourt.

Incredibly enough, only five games separate the Spurs and the eighth-seeded Warriors.

In other words, a very good team is not going to make the playoffs, while right now the sixth, seventh and eighth seeds in the East are below .500. Maybe the top 16 records in the league overall should be in the playoffs, regardless of conference.

But that's a different story for a different day. We're here today to decide two things in the West ... who's in and who's out.

Let's blow through the nine teams and make an educated guess:

1. Spurs (42-17): As long as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are healthy, they're a lock to be in and the odds-on favorite to defend their NBA title, giving them four in six years and five over 10 - a certifiable dynasty despite all this talk about them being too old. The additions of Kurt Thomas and Damon Stoudamire help with depth, with aging a factor for the team overall.

2. Lakers (43-18): They're in, and the vogue choice to win the West since the gift of Pau Gasol from Memphis. Kobe Bryant is certainly the favorite to win the MVP Award and Lamar Odom is playing great. The torn ligament in Bryant's right pinky is a concern and Gasol may prove to be softer than people think. Andrew Bynum's knee injury makes them vulnerable up front over the long haul.

3. Jazz (39-22): They're in too, with control of the Northwest Division behind Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams, and toughness in their depth that reflects coach Jerry Sloan. But to win the conference, they'll need Andrei Kirilenko to be healthy and consistently effective, and Kyle Korver has to keep everybody honest with his shooting in his first big postseason.

4. Hornets (40-19): With point guard Chris Paul leading the way as an MVP candidate, they've hung in there near the top longer than people have expected. David West and Tyson Chandler have been big too, and the late addition of Chris Andersen will help their depth. They'll make the top eight, but beyond the first round? That will test coach Byron Scott.since this club lacks experience.

5. Suns (40-20): The loss of Shawn Marion and addition of Shaquille O'Neal has been a shock to their system, losing four of their first six together. It's almost impossible to believe they'll fall out of the playoffs, but do they have the wherewithal to win in the playoffs when they're only 18-16 in conference play? Even with Steve Nash running the point, they are a different team now.

6. Rockets (39-20): This NBA-high 15-game winning streak they're on is hard to fathom, mainly because the last three came after Yao Ming went down for the season with a fractured foot. So now what? Last season, he was hurt too, but Tracy McGrady stepped up with an MVP-caliber season. McGrady doesn't have that anymore. How will this group react when they hit a bump now? They are on the bubble now.

7. Mavericks (39-22): The big question is how good they will be when Jason Kidd locks into their system. Right now, they're suffering from the loss of Devin Harris' speed and DeSagana Diop's presence inside since the trade. Harris will be missed down the road, not in the immediate future. Diop will hurt both. They'll get in, but are Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard enough to win the West?

8. Warriors (37-22): Last year's darlings are back, with Baron Davis and his blossoming young partner Monta Ellis rivaling Parker and Ginobili as the most dynamic backcourt in the West. But what will Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Matt Barnes et al bring to the table? They have a little breathing room ahead of the Nuggets, but Davis' always questionable health could knock them out.

9. Nuggets (35-24): With only 23 games left in the season, the Nuggets still haven't found their identity. With Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony the third and fourth leading scorers in the league and league-leading shot-blocker and second-best rebounder Marcus Camby on board, you'd think that would be plenty. Instead, they have too many lapses for games at a time.

So if everything stays relatively status quo health-wise with these teams, where does that leave us? Well, certainly the Nuggets have to prove they can climb their way back into the race with more consistent play, while the Warriors have to fend off lapses of judgment that cause them to shoot their way into and out of games. But there also is the question of how the Rockets will sustain once their momentum runs out despite their four-game lead over the Nuggets.

My guess is the Rockets will run out of gas.

What do you think?